FanGraphs Chat – 7/3/13
| 11:44 |
: Welcome to the first chat of trade season. We’ll still do questions on all (non-fantasy) related things, but I’ll probably focus more on trade questions during July than in other months of the year. So, if you want to talk Ricky Nolasco, this is your big chance.
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| 12:00 |
If the Angels put Mike Trout on the trade market but insisted that the other team take Pujols along with his entire contract, how much would they get back? What if the team had to take Pujols and Hamilton? |
| 12:02 |
: Pujols isn’t worthless, so let’s say that the $210 million or so left on his deal is an overpay of about $100 million. Clearly, you’d pay $100 million to get 4+ years of Mike Trout, no question. Add Hamilton’s contract to the mix and you’re probably talking about another $50 million or so of dead money, maybe even $75 million if you think he can’t come back from this. That’s getting to the point where you’re taking on $40 million per year for Trout. He’s probably worth it, but it’d be close.
|
| 12:03 |
Homer Bailey is a top __ starting pitcher in baseball. |
| 12:03 |
: 20, maybe 15. 10 would be pushing it. He’s good though, no question.
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| 12:03 |
Who should the Reds get for LF? Is this still their biggest need? |
| 12:03 |
: CF. Choo should be playing a corner spot in the playoffs.
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| 12:03 |
Thanks for you everything you do for the site, Dave. One quick inquiry/request: Do you foresee us being able to sort leader boards based on certain dates ever? It would be cool to be able to use arbitrary cut-off dates to see who’s been the past over that span. |
| 12:04 |
: It’s possible, certainly, but probably not the highest priority. We have a few things in the works, including one new announcement coming in the next few weeks, that we think you’ll like. We don’t have an unlimited amount of coders, unfortunately, so we can’t do everything.
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| 12:05 |
How are “digs” by first basemen accounted for in defensive metrics? If a 1B is getting positive credit (i.e. + runs saved) for a dig in the dirt, is the thrower on the other end of the play getting the offsetting negative credit (- runs saved), so that the saved runs are not double counted? |
| 12:06 |
: That’s a good question, actually. I don’t know how UZR and DRS handle something like that. Maybe worth posting that question to Tango’s new forums and seeing if MGL will answer.
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| 12:06 |
Who do you think the best prospect to be traded is? |
| 12:06 |
: It just feels like the Dodgers are going to give Joc Pederson to someone in pursuit of a win-now strategy.
|
| 12:06 |
Bud Norris…staying put, SF, SD or the field? |
| 12:06 |
: Definitely getting traded. I could see him in SF.
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| 12:06 |
Will I end up trading Tyler Skaggs for someone like Matt Garza? Say it isn’t so! |
| 12:06 |
: No, Skaggs would only be on the table for a non-rental, I imagine.
|
| 12:07 |
What sort of return do you think that Nolasco will bring the Fish? |
| 12:07 |
: Not a ton unless they eat the rest of the money he’s owed.
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| 12:07 |
What’s the price for Garza, and where is the best fit? I’m thinking a couple B prospects should get it done? |
| 12:07 |
: Maybe just one B prospect and some filler. Pitchers with a history of arm problems have to take a discount.
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| 12:07 |
Is Dayton Moore delusional enough to trade for Chase Utley? |
| 12:08 |
: Utley would help them a lot, but they shouldn’t be buyers.
|
| 12:08 |
Giancarlo Stanton has a __% chance of moving during the season. |
| 12:08 |
: 0.1%
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| 12:08 |
Early impressions of the Mariners “middle infield of the future?” |
| 12:08 |
: Franklin has been better than I expected. I like Miller, and think he’ll stick at SS.
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| 12:08 |
What does it take to get Norris from the Astros? |
| 12:09 |
: The Astros have seemed to favor quantity over quality in previous trades, so they might go for 3-4 decent guys rather than one solid prospect.
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| 12:09 |
Which FG writer would be the most fun to watch a baseball game with based only on their baseball commentary? |
| 12:10 |
: Carson. He notices a lot of little things that normal people don’t pick up on.
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| 12:10 |
I think it’d be smart to refrain from entering the (non-existent) trade mkt for Stanton. Therefore, I think I’ll try to acquire Rios or Schierholz. Good fits or illogical? |
| 12:10 |
: I’d rather have Schierholtz than Rios.
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| 12:10 |
Do you admire the Cardinals organization for their young talent? I do. |
| 12:10 |
: I admire them for just about everything.
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| 12:11 |
Crazy trade idea: Padres go all in, swing deal for Cliff Lee, vindicate one of Paul Swydan’s crazy offseason predictions. |
| 12:11 |
: Not unless they’re crazy. The Padres aren’t very good.
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| 12:11 |
Prince’s woba is at a .359… um… just bad luck, or what? |
| 12:12 |
: It’s just weird. He’s crushing lefties after years of struggling against them, but not hitting righties well at all. He’s always been a little overrated, but yeah, this is probably not going to last. He’s better than this.
|
| 12:12 |
Buck Showalter continues to acquire ex-Rangers. Looked like a pretty solid trade for both parties, though. Agree? |
| 12:12 |
: Yeah, I liked it for both teams. Feldman will help the O’s, and Cubs keep rebuilding.
|
| 12:12 |
Why can’t Aoki gain 50 pounds and hit 30 bombs? |
| 12:12 |
: Because they have testing for that now.
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| 12:12 |
When will we see the Mariners start dumping all their veteran pitching and trade hitting? |
| 12:13 |
: You think there’s a long line waiting to acquire Harang, Bonderman, and Saunders? Danny Hultzen had to be scratched from his start in Tacoma last night, and my guess is he’s going to end up back on the DL, so they don’t have a ton of depth ready behind those guys. Erasmo Ramirez should be called up yesterday, but after that, it’s thin.
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| 12:14 |
Based on the strength of my bullpen, one may not see the need to add an extra arm. I disagree. I prefer to take a perceived strength and make it stronger. Hence, I would like to acquire Jesse Crain. Too rich or right move? |
| 12:14 |
: Can’t have too many relievers in Ocotber.
|
| 12:14 |
: October either.
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| 12:14 |
When does Amaro finally pull the plug on this Phils team, and who do the Tigers give them for Papelbon? |
| 12:14 |
: Will be interesting to see that scenario play out. Papelbon to Detroit does seem pretty obvious on the surface.
|
| 12:15 |
How much weight should we put into the trading of international slot allocations? The Cubs have been trading for the ability to spend, but wouldn’t you rather have an average major leaguer or middling upside high minors player than rolling the dice in the international market? |
| 12:16 |
: Everything is a trade-off. The Cubs traded short term for long term and floor for ceiling. You should never say you prefer one over the other, as there’s always a point at which you get enough of one to offset the other.
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| 12:16 |
If we compare the bonuses given to international free agents with the slot values in the rule 4 draft, does that give us a decent idea of where they would have gone in the draft (their perceived talent level as amateur prospects) or are the two not really that comparable? |
| 12:16 |
: They’re not comparable.
|
| 12:16 |
What are your thoughts thus far on the Ackley as an outfielder experiment? |
| 12:17 |
: He needs some work out there.
|
| 12:17 |
Do you see Iwakuma to Baltimore happening? |
| 12:17 |
: No, the Mariners won’t trade Iwakuma.
|
| 12:17 |
What bullpen arms do you think the Braves could go after? |
| 12:17 |
: I think they’ll be in on every setup guy available. If Crain is healthy, I could see him as a fit there.
|
| 12:18 |
You see the Rangers doing anything at the deadline? |
| 12:18 |
: They’ll add a starting pitcher.
|
| 12:18 |
If Edgar had played a subpar 3b his whole career, would he have a better chance at the Hall than he does now? |
| 12:18 |
: Yep. HOF voters care about position, not so much about defensive performance.
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| 12:18 |
Have the Cubs found the first really exploitable hole in the new CBA? |
| 12:19 |
: This isn’t a hole. This was intentionally put in the CBA. Everyone knew this was coming.
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| 12:19 |
Will the return for Nolasco exceed what the Cubs got for Feldman? |
| 12:19 |
: Depends on the amount of cash Miami agrees to eat.
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| 12:19 |
Do you think people have been overstating the extent to which Cliff Lee’s trade value is affected by his contract? Yes he makes a lot of money, in fact he’s being paid like he’s one of the best players in baseball. Its not clear to me that this is a huge deal when he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. |
| 12:20 |
: Value is basically performance minus cost. Lee’s performance and cost are both high, so his value is low.
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| 12:20 |
Mid-grade prospect for Papelbon if acquiring team (Red Sox?) picks up most if not all of his contract? Realistic? |
| 12:20 |
: Red Sox aren’t dumb enough to take that contract.
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| 12:20 |
The Indians have been playing good baseball, it’s July and they are in first. With the added Wild Card spots do you think they might surprise everyone and go after a starting pitcher and an infielder? Lee/Utley kinda makes sense doesn’t it? Though I’m sure Lee has Cleveland on his no trade clause… |
| 12:21 |
: They have Jason Kipnis. They don’t need a second baseman, and they can’t afford Cliff Lee.
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| 12:21 |
Does Marcum have trade value since he’s on a 1 year deal? I know injury concerns are there but with the Mets rotation rounding out ok once Niese returns and the youth movement (with Hef and Gee pitching well) it would make sense to unload and get a middling OF prospect? |
| 12:21 |
: I could see the Dodgers picking him up hoping that he’d do better in the NL West.
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| 12:22 |
Who is in better position after the trade deadline the Pirates, who can easily upgrade a starter and RF, or the Cardinals, who probably won’t be able to find a replacement for SS and don’t have many other glaring weaknesses? |
| 12:22 |
: The Cardinals, because those lack of glaring weaknesses are why they’re the better team.
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| 12:22 |
I for one do not really want to talk about Ricky Nolasco but what the heck? What’s the best landing spot for him where he can help the most/ his pitches/approach will play the best? |
| 12:22 |
: Seems like the Dodgers make the most sense. West coast guy, they have money to burn, Marlins want to dump his salary.
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| 12:23 |
What does the offseason hold for David Price? |
| 12:23 |
: A change of addresses.
|
| 12:23 |
How would you explain the differences between wOBA and BP’s TAv? |
| 12:24 |
: wOBA is scaled to OBP, TAv is scaled to batting average.
|
| 12:24 |
The Cubs’ front office seem to run an organization the way Fangraphs would if they had one, no? |
| 12:25 |
: No surprise, given that the Cubs employ Tom Tango and a host of people who agree with this line of thinking.
|
| 12:25 |
Nolasco > Garza? Maybe? |
| 12:25 |
: Sure, as long as we’re not talking about their pitching abilities.
|
| 12:26 |
Do you see the new qualifying offer set-up having a significant impact on the trade market, now that teams are one year removed from it and understand how the offseason will work? |
| 12:26 |
: I think they knew how it would work last year. I don’t think it changes much.
|
| 12:26 |
Jeff mentioned the Tigers as a potential surprise suitor for Stanton. Would a Castellanos, Smyly, Garcia, Rondon package get it done? If so, should the Tigres consider it? |
| 12:26 |
: Not even close.
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| 12:27 |
What would be your professional and personal opinion of a Mariners/Orioles trade involving Kendrys Morales and a mid range Orioles prospect? |
| 12:27 |
: Makes sense for Orioles. My guess is Mariners keep Morales and make him the qualifying offer.
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| 12:27 |
do wOBA and wRC+ weight obp more than slg and by how much? |
| 12:28 |
: That’s not how linear weights works, but yes, OBP is more important by about 80%.
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| 12:28 |
: That’s why 1.8*OBP+SLG works as a not horrible proxy.
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| 12:29 |
Do you see the Dbacks making any significant moves soon or waiting to see on all of their young arms? |
| 12:29 |
: My guess is they let things play out a bit more.
|
| 12:29 |
You can’t arbitrarily add a mammoth contract to a trade and expect the other team just to say “oh, yeah, that works.” |
| 12:30 |
: The Dodgers and Red Sox trade last year says hello.
|
| 12:30 |
Who do you feel are the most likely relievers to be traded? Which relievers may be headed for new closer roles? |
| 12:30 |
: Oliver Perez, Jesse Crain, maybe Papelbon if the Phillies get smart.
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| 12:30 |
Who would be a realistic 1B or RF option for the Pirates? Any chance for Morales? |
| 12:30 |
: He belongs in the AL. Can’t play the field every day.
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| 12:31 |
Yesterday Mr. Sullivan said the Indians were essentially the Kansas City Royals + a hot Jason Kipnis. Do you also so very little difference between those two clubs? |
| 12:31 |
: The Indians can hit but have pitching problems, while the Royals pitching is good but they can’t hit. I don’t see the similarity.
|
| 12:32 |
What would Jason Heyward receive on the open market? He has had a strange habit of mixing good and bad years. |
| 12:32 |
: He’s a very tough guy to peg.
|
| 12:33 |
If all goes according to plan do you see the Twins being great in 2-3 years with all the solid young prospects they have in the pipeline |
| 12:33 |
: No, I don’t think having a couple of good prospects can turn a franchise around.
|
| 12:33 |
Looking forward to the trade value series this year. When are you going to start this? Trout, Harper, Machado, Harvey, Longo as the top 5? |
| 12:34 |
: I’m going to run it during the All-Star break again. Was considering moving it up, but it’s a good fit since there’s no baseball to talk about that week. The list isn’t finalized, but I will note that Harvey won’t be top five. Pitchers are just too flimsy.
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| 12:35 |
hypothetically, how much money would the Phils have to offer to send along to get a Howard trade done? |
| 12:35 |
: However much is left on his contract plus $1.
|
| 12:35 |
How should the casual fan view the international signings? The Cubs have apparently signed two of the top guys but they are all 16 or 17 years old. These guys are presumably 4-6 years from the majors, if they ever get there at all, right? |
| 12:36 |
: The casual fan should just say “hey, neat, my team is investing in the future.” When you were a kid, did you complain about your parents putting money into a retirement account?
|
| 12:36 |
Have you gone on record yet regarding Puig’s potential status as an All-Star? |
| 12:36 |
: I’d put him on the team, and I’d make Jonathan Papelbon carry his bags.
|
| 12:36 |
What do you think will be Oakland’s priority at the deadline, middle infield or SP? |
| 12:37 |
: Middle infield.
|
| 12:37 |
What would it take for the Dbacks to get the Sammy the Tight End from the Cubs? Skaggs? |
| 12:37 |
: More. Samardzija is an ace.
|
| 12:37 |
Does Carson talk like he writes? |
| 12:37 |
: Yep. Carson is Carson.
|
| 12:37 |
What is your reaction to the Feldman trade? |
| 12:38 |
: Wrote it up yesterday. It’s on the site.
|
| 12:38 |
Why is Kuroda not considered an ace? |
| 12:38 |
: Doesn’t throw hard enough? People really underrate him.
|
| 12:38 |
Your idea of the pirates acquiring Nate Schierholtz is crazy. Cubs would never deal him within the division. |
| 12:39 |
: The whole trade within the division thing is silly. If you’re making a veteran for prospect trade, you think it’s making your team better for the future, thus by default, it is making the other team worse in the future. Teams should want to make their division contenders worse in the future.
|
| 12:40 |
Cardinals WS favorites in your eyes? |
| 12:40 |
: Might still lean towards the Tigers because they have the easiest path to the playoffs.
|
| 12:40 |
What do the Nationals do at the deadline? |
| 12:40 |
: Add a starting pitcher and a RH hitter.
|
| 12:41 |
by not trading Utley and M. Young, will the phils get first rd draft picks if they sign elsewhere next year? |
| 12:41 |
: Only if they make them a qualifying offer. Utley’s probably a bubble guy based on his health and age, and offering Young $14 million for next year would be beyond stupid.
|
| 12:42 |
Eric Hosmer’s best big league wRC+ is 114, is it possible he’s just not very good? Also, how would you compare him in terms of long term value to Justin Smoak? |
| 12:42 |
: It certainly seems like this young crop of first base prospects were all overhyped. Toss Ike Davis in that mix too.
|
| 12:42 |
Do the Mariners have anything that would get them in to the Joc Pederson market? |
| 12:43 |
: Iwakuma, but he’s not going anywhere. So no.
|
| 12:43 |
Is “one B prospect and some filler” worth more than the compensation pick the Cubs could get for Garza? |
| 12:43 |
: More. The B prospect is going to be closer to the majors and won’t cost you money to sign.
|
| 12:43 |
4th of July plans? |
| 12:44 |
: We’re getting our dog tonight, so I’m pretty sure my entire weekend is going to be throwing balls and potty training.
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| 12:44 |
What is Phil Hughes trade value? 1 elite prospect? |
| 12:44 |
: Are you joking? I’m not sure I’d give up anything of value for Hughes.
|
| 12:46 |
What would it take for the Cardinals to land Cano? |
| 12:46 |
: Why would the Cardinals spend $250 million on Cano?
|
| 12:46 |
Could Ervin Santana be dealt? |
| 12:46 |
: In the sane world where KC knows they aren’t contenders, sure.
|
| 12:47 |
What does Tim Lincecum’s contract look like next year and who gives it to him? |
| 12:47 |
: 1/10, Seattle.
|
| 12:47 |
Coming from a huge Cubs fan– is it possible the Cubs are getting too much love for the Feldman deal? Steve Clevenger is a catcher with a .370+ OBP in the minors, and isn’t Scott Feldman arguably good enough for any team to want to keep around at the right price. In return, they get a couple of fringy pitchers, and the cash to sign 16 year old lottery tickets. This deal reminds me a little bit of the Paul Maholm deal last year; In Arodys Vizcaino, the Cubs got a future reliever (at best, given his persistent arm issues) and while passing on the opportunity to keep a LHP with a 3.67 ERA since the start of 2011 in Paul Maholm… |
| 12:48 |
: And they replaced Paul Maholm with Scott Feldman, who cost them the same salary they would have paid Maholm anyway. Smart teams can rebuild their pitching staffs every off-season with good value buys.
|
| 12:48 |
What are the odds Trout and Harper aren’t 1 and 2 on trade value series? I guess a better question would be who is the frontrunner for #3 |
| 12:49 |
: Yeah, there’s no suspense there. Those two are the obvious top two, so the list really begins at #3.
|
| 12:49 |
Settle an argument. I think scouting isn’t that tough. We have Pitch F/x and the teams have Field F/x and Hit F/x that basically do it for you. My buddy says it’s very tough and not many can do it well. |
| 12:49 |
: Your buddy is right. By the way, FIELDF/x isn’t a thing yet.
|
| 12:49 |
What kind of value does Seattle get in return for packaging a deal like J. Saunders and B. Ryan together? B prospect? (Thanks for theses chats, Dave!) |
| 12:50 |
: No one’s giving you a B prospect for a bench player and a guy who belongs in the bullpen.
|
| 12:51 |
Also re: the Cubs possibly overvaluing International $$– isn’t Ronald Torreyes, the youngest player in the Southern League, exceedingly more likely to have a big league career that vitrtually every 16 year old player on the planet? |
| 12:51 |
: Who cares about likelihood to have a big league career? What you care about is overall value. I’d rather have a 10% chance at $1 million than a 90% chance at $10.
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| 12:52 |
Can you summarize on how Bobby Bonilla receives $1.19 mil every July 1st for the next 25 years or so from the Mets? Thanks. |
| 12:52 |
: His salary was deferred.
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| 12:53 |
Re: Lee’s value. Performance **OVER REPLACEMENT** – Value. In a pennant race, you’d rather have Lee for $25M than Harang for $0. Lee’s value is huge for a contender with a Hanrang level starter. Replacement level is completely different than normal here. Right? |
| 12:53 |
: Lee’s value isn’t huge because he costs so much. His performance is worth a lot, but the cost is an offsetting factor.
|
| 12:54 |
The Rays don’t do something wacky like dealing Price. they just play the season out and take the comp pick for him right? |
| 12:54 |
: He’s not a free agent at the end of the year. They’ll trade him in the off-season.
|
| 12:54 |
Is Yasiel Puig still swinging at everything an issue if he’s still getting results? Obviously it’s not an ideal process, but should he be adjusting now, or does adjustment come once his results begin to reflect his approach? |
| 12:55 |
: The adjustments come when pitchers stop throwing him strikes. See Hamilton, Josh.
|
| 12:55 |
Does the Casper Wells=Cody Ross comp still hold up after Wells performance this season? |
| 12:55 |
: You mean after 40 at-bats? Yeah, it still holds.
|
| 12:55 |
Do you think the cubs actually know who Tango is, or is he anonymous to them too? |
| 12:55 |
: I’m sure they know his real name. They have to pay him.
|
| 12:56 |
Are teams allowed to trade 2013 draftees yet? |
| 12:56 |
: No, a player can’t be traded until 6 months after they sign. The rule is actually 12 months, but you can trade them as a PTBNL, which don’t have to be named for 6.
|
| 12:56 |
Wait, you think the Rays will trade Price? Please explain? |
| 12:56 |
: He’s getting very expensive, so they’ll move him for cheaper, lower cost talent.
|
| 12:57 |
Why did the Yankees think it was a good idea to pay Vernon Wells the same amount of money the pirates are paying Russell Martin? |
| 12:57 |
: This is really the question no one knows the answer to.
|
| 12:57 |
Know anything about the guy the Cubs just signed, Eloy Jimenez? |
| 12:58 |
: Ben Badler, who owns the international market reporting beat, thinks he’s the best prospect available this year.
|
| 12:58 |
What’s most responsible for the dearth of available talent this deadline, extra wild card, increase in long-term extensions, smarter gms, or something else? |
| 12:58 |
: extra wild card. Everyone’s “still in it” now, even if they aren’t really.
|
| 12:58 |
Biggest impact bat you see moving? |
| 12:58 |
: Aramis Ramirez.
|
| 12:58 |
Do you like Hawaiian pizza? |
| 12:59 |
: I like pineapple on my pizza, but not a big fan of Canadian Bacon.
|
| 12:59 |
Would you trade Matt Harvey+ for Stanton in the offseason? |
| 12:59 |
: No.
|
| 1:00 |
Who is marc w that writes for USSM? He does a good job, just don’t know much about him. |
| 1:00 |
: His name is Marc Webster, he lives in Tacoma, and he’s awesome.
|
| 1:01 |
Am I crazy for not thinking a 16-year old prospect is worth giving up a quality, inexpensive major league pitcher and a young catcher with a .370+ OBP in the minors? |
| 1:01 |
: Yep, because that’s not what the trade was.
|
| 1:01 |
Whenever someone says CBA I think of the Congressional Budget Office. Is this a good or bad thing |
| 1:02 |
: Probably bad, considering CBA and CBO are different.
|
| 1:02 |
So Pujols has 100 million dollars of value while Howard is worthless? Guess which player is better this season. |
| 1:02 |
: Guess who doesn’t evaluate players based on three month samples?
|
| 1:02 |
Continuing survey: Full-time FG writer cagematch. Who win? Sullivan’s answer was: Not Carson |
| 1:03 |
: Yeah, that’s a pretty good answer. Though probably Not Appelman too.
|
| 1:03 |
Is Clubhouse Confidential just on hiatus? MLB Now is inferior. |
| 1:03 |
: It’s an offseason only show.
|
| 1:04 |
Any chance the Mariners deal Mike Morse? |
| 1:04 |
: Yeah, if anyone wants a broken down DH rental.
|
| 1:04 |
Can a schedule of Live Chats be put on the site????? |
| 1:05 |
: They’re always at noon. Szymborski on Monday, Sullivan on Tuesday, I’m on Wednesday, Eno’s on Thursday, Hulet’s on Friday.
|
| 1:05 |
What kind of dog? |
| 1:05 |
: yellow lab mix. We don’t know what the Dad is, since it’s a rescue.
|
| 1:06 |
I have a dark chocolate and bacon cupcake in front of me I wouldn’t give up for Phil Hughes. |
| 1:06 |
: Phil Hughes is lousy.
|
| 1:07 |
What type of contract to you believe price signs? a possible 10yr deal that becomes an alabtross in the future or one of the smarter higher AAV? |
| 1:07 |
: Teams don’t give pitchers 10 year deals, especially not ones who just spent time on the DL.
|
| 1:07 |
How concerned should Mariners fans be about Felix’s velocity drop (both in prior years and this year)? |
| 1:07 |
: Not at all.
|
| 1:09 |
: Okay, off to get some lunch and do some writing before the dog arrives. Enjoy your 4th of July everyone.
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
If the Phillies continue to struggle, who do you think they will trade and who do you think they will hang on to?