FanGraphs Chat – 7/3/13

Dave Cameron: Welcome to the first chat of trade season. We’ll still do questions on all (non-fantasy) related things, but I’ll probably focus more on trade questions during July than in other months of the year. So, if you want to talk Ricky Nolasco, this is your big chance.

Comment From rja3
If the Angels put Mike Trout on the trade market but insisted that the other team take Pujols along with his entire contract, how much would they get back? What if the team had to take Pujols and Hamilton?

Dave Cameron: Pujols isn’t worthless, so let’s say that the $210 million or so left on his deal is an overpay of about $100 million. Clearly, you’d pay $100 million to get 4+ years of Mike Trout, no question. Add Hamilton’s contract to the mix and you’re probably talking about another $50 million or so of dead money, maybe even $75 million if you think he can’t come back from this. That’s getting to the point where you’re taking on $40 million per year for Trout. He’s probably worth it, but it’d be close.

Comment From Roman
Homer Bailey is a top __ starting pitcher in baseball.

Dave Cameron: 20, maybe 15. 10 would be pushing it. He’s good though, no question.

Comment From Jay
Who should the Reds get for LF? Is this still their biggest need?

Dave Cameron: CF. Choo should be playing a corner spot in the playoffs.

Comment From Blockhead
Thanks for you everything you do for the site, Dave. One quick inquiry/request: Do you foresee us being able to sort leader boards based on certain dates ever? It would be cool to be able to use arbitrary cut-off dates to see who’s been the past over that span.

Dave Cameron: It’s possible, certainly, but probably not the highest priority. We have a few things in the works, including one new announcement coming in the next few weeks, that we think you’ll like. We don’t have an unlimited amount of coders, unfortunately, so we can’t do everything.

Comment From Brian L
How are “digs” by first basemen accounted for in defensive metrics? If a 1B is getting positive credit (i.e. + runs saved) for a dig in the dirt, is the thrower on the other end of the play getting the offsetting negative credit (- runs saved), so that the saved runs are not double counted?

Dave Cameron: That’s a good question, actually. I don’t know how UZR and DRS handle something like that. Maybe worth posting that question to Tango’s new forums and seeing if MGL will answer.

Comment From Gregory
Who do you think the best prospect to be traded is?

Dave Cameron: It just feels like the Dodgers are going to give Joc Pederson to someone in pursuit of a win-now strategy.

Comment From Kam
Bud Norris…staying put, SF, SD or the field?

Dave Cameron: Definitely getting traded. I could see him in SF.

Comment From Kevin Towers
Will I end up trading Tyler Skaggs for someone like Matt Garza? Say it isn’t so!

Dave Cameron: No, Skaggs would only be on the table for a non-rental, I imagine.

Comment From wade
What sort of return do you think that Nolasco will bring the Fish?

Dave Cameron: Not a ton unless they eat the rest of the money he’s owed.

Comment From Benson
What’s the price for Garza, and where is the best fit? I’m thinking a couple B prospects should get it done?

Dave Cameron: Maybe just one B prospect and some filler. Pitchers with a history of arm problems have to take a discount.

Comment From Kerry
Is Dayton Moore delusional enough to trade for Chase Utley?

Dave Cameron: Utley would help them a lot, but they shouldn’t be buyers.

Comment From bdhudson
Giancarlo Stanton has a __% chance of moving during the season.

Dave Cameron: 0.1%

Comment From Marcus A.
Early impressions of the Mariners “middle infield of the future?”

Dave Cameron: Franklin has been better than I expected. I like Miller, and think he’ll stick at SS.

Comment From RG
What does it take to get Norris from the Astros?

Dave Cameron: The Astros have seemed to favor quantity over quality in previous trades, so they might go for 3-4 decent guys rather than one solid prospect.

Comment From Neil
Which FG writer would be the most fun to watch a baseball game with based only on their baseball commentary?

Dave Cameron: Carson. He notices a lot of little things that normal people don’t pick up on.

Comment From Neal Huntinton
I think it’d be smart to refrain from entering the (non-existent) trade mkt for Stanton. Therefore, I think I’ll try to acquire Rios or Schierholz. Good fits or illogical?

Dave Cameron: I’d rather have Schierholtz than Rios.

Comment From Steve
Do you admire the Cardinals organization for their young talent? I do.

Dave Cameron: I admire them for just about everything.

Comment From zack
Crazy trade idea: Padres go all in, swing deal for Cliff Lee, vindicate one of Paul Swydan’s crazy offseason predictions.

Dave Cameron: Not unless they’re crazy. The Padres aren’t very good.

Comment From Steve
Prince’s woba is at a .359… um… just bad luck, or what?

Dave Cameron: It’s just weird. He’s crushing lefties after years of struggling against them, but not hitting righties well at all. He’s always been a little overrated, but yeah, this is probably not going to last. He’s better than this.

Comment From bdhudson
Buck Showalter continues to acquire ex-Rangers. Looked like a pretty solid trade for both parties, though. Agree?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I liked it for both teams. Feldman will help the O’s, and Cubs keep rebuilding.

Comment From Steve
Why can’t Aoki gain 50 pounds and hit 30 bombs?

Dave Cameron: Because they have testing for that now.

Comment From Guest
When will we see the Mariners start dumping all their veteran pitching and trade hitting?

Dave Cameron: You think there’s a long line waiting to acquire Harang, Bonderman, and Saunders? Danny Hultzen had to be scratched from his start in Tacoma last night, and my guess is he’s going to end up back on the DL, so they don’t have a ton of depth ready behind those guys. Erasmo Ramirez should be called up yesterday, but after that, it’s thin.

Comment From Neal Huntinton
Based on the strength of my bullpen, one may not see the need to add an extra arm. I disagree. I prefer to take a perceived strength and make it stronger. Hence, I would like to acquire Jesse Crain. Too rich or right move?

Dave Cameron: Can’t have too many relievers in Ocotber.

Dave Cameron: October either.

Comment From Big Dave
When does Amaro finally pull the plug on this Phils team, and who do the Tigers give them for Papelbon?

Dave Cameron: Will be interesting to see that scenario play out. Papelbon to Detroit does seem pretty obvious on the surface.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
How much weight should we put into the trading of international slot allocations? The Cubs have been trading for the ability to spend, but wouldn’t you rather have an average major leaguer or middling upside high minors player than rolling the dice in the international market?

Dave Cameron: Everything is a trade-off. The Cubs traded short term for long term and floor for ceiling. You should never say you prefer one over the other, as there’s always a point at which you get enough of one to offset the other.

Comment From Brent
If we compare the bonuses given to international free agents with the slot values in the rule 4 draft, does that give us a decent idea of where they would have gone in the draft (their perceived talent level as amateur prospects) or are the two not really that comparable?

Dave Cameron: They’re not comparable.

Comment From Travis
What are your thoughts thus far on the Ackley as an outfielder experiment?

Dave Cameron: He needs some work out there.

Comment From Guest
Do you see Iwakuma to Baltimore happening?

Dave Cameron: No, the Mariners won’t trade Iwakuma.

Comment From Reuben
What bullpen arms do you think the Braves could go after?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll be in on every setup guy available. If Crain is healthy, I could see him as a fit there.

Comment From Trent
You see the Rangers doing anything at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: They’ll add a starting pitcher.

Comment From Tom
If Edgar had played a subpar 3b his whole career, would he have a better chance at the Hall than he does now?

Dave Cameron: Yep. HOF voters care about position, not so much about defensive performance.

Comment From Eddie
Have the Cubs found the first really exploitable hole in the new CBA?

Dave Cameron: This isn’t a hole. This was intentionally put in the CBA. Everyone knew this was coming.

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
Will the return for Nolasco exceed what the Cubs got for Feldman?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the amount of cash Miami agrees to eat.

Comment From zack
Do you think people have been overstating the extent to which Cliff Lee’s trade value is affected by his contract? Yes he makes a lot of money, in fact he’s being paid like he’s one of the best players in baseball. Its not clear to me that this is a huge deal when he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Dave Cameron: Value is basically performance minus cost. Lee’s performance and cost are both high, so his value is low.

Comment From Bring Pap Back
Mid-grade prospect for Papelbon if acquiring team (Red Sox?) picks up most if not all of his contract? Realistic?

Dave Cameron: Red Sox aren’t dumb enough to take that contract.

Comment From JEB
The Indians have been playing good baseball, it’s July and they are in first. With the added Wild Card spots do you think they might surprise everyone and go after a starting pitcher and an infielder? Lee/Utley kinda makes sense doesn’t it? Though I’m sure Lee has Cleveland on his no trade clause…

Dave Cameron: They have Jason Kipnis. They don’t need a second baseman, and they can’t afford Cliff Lee.

Comment From Dr. Met
Does Marcum have trade value since he’s on a 1 year deal? I know injury concerns are there but with the Mets rotation rounding out ok once Niese returns and the youth movement (with Hef and Gee pitching well) it would make sense to unload and get a middling OF prospect?

Dave Cameron: I could see the Dodgers picking him up hoping that he’d do better in the NL West.

Comment From Bucco
Who is in better position after the trade deadline the Pirates, who can easily upgrade a starter and RF, or the Cardinals, who probably won’t be able to find a replacement for SS and don’t have many other glaring weaknesses?

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals, because those lack of glaring weaknesses are why they’re the better team.

Comment From ManBearPuig is Super Serial
I for one do not really want to talk about Ricky Nolasco but what the heck? What’s the best landing spot for him where he can help the most/ his pitches/approach will play the best?

Dave Cameron: Seems like the Dodgers make the most sense. West coast guy, they have money to burn, Marlins want to dump his salary.

Comment From Guest
What does the offseason hold for David Price?

Dave Cameron: A change of addresses.

Comment From Brad
How would you explain the differences between wOBA and BP’s TAv?

Dave Cameron: wOBA is scaled to OBP, TAv is scaled to batting average.

Comment From Marcus A.
The Cubs’ front office seem to run an organization the way Fangraphs would if they had one, no?

Dave Cameron: No surprise, given that the Cubs employ Tom Tango and a host of people who agree with this line of thinking.

Comment From Steve
Nolasco > Garza? Maybe?

Dave Cameron: Sure, as long as we’re not talking about their pitching abilities.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
Do you see the new qualifying offer set-up having a significant impact on the trade market, now that teams are one year removed from it and understand how the offseason will work?

Dave Cameron: I think they knew how it would work last year. I don’t think it changes much.

Comment From The other Kyle
Jeff mentioned the Tigers as a potential surprise suitor for Stanton. Would a Castellanos, Smyly, Garcia, Rondon package get it done? If so, should the Tigres consider it?

Dave Cameron: Not even close.

Comment From Mark W
What would be your professional and personal opinion of a Mariners/Orioles trade involving Kendrys Morales and a mid range Orioles prospect?

Dave Cameron: Makes sense for Orioles. My guess is Mariners keep Morales and make him the qualifying offer.

Comment From Jack Morris
do wOBA and wRC+ weight obp more than slg and by how much?

Dave Cameron: That’s not how linear weights works, but yes, OBP is more important by about 80%.

Dave Cameron: That’s why 1.8*OBP+SLG works as a not horrible proxy.

Comment From Matt
Do you see the Dbacks making any significant moves soon or waiting to see on all of their young arms?

Dave Cameron: My guess is they let things play out a bit more.

Comment From bdhudson
You can’t arbitrarily add a mammoth contract to a trade and expect the other team just to say “oh, yeah, that works.”

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers and Red Sox trade last year says hello.

Comment From hothead
Who do you feel are the most likely relievers to be traded? Which relievers may be headed for new closer roles?

Dave Cameron: Oliver Perez, Jesse Crain, maybe Papelbon if the Phillies get smart.

Comment From Rhymenosaurus
Who would be a realistic 1B or RF option for the Pirates? Any chance for Morales?

Dave Cameron: He belongs in the AL. Can’t play the field every day.

Comment From James
Yesterday Mr. Sullivan said the Indians were essentially the Kansas City Royals + a hot Jason Kipnis. Do you also so very little difference between those two clubs?

Dave Cameron: The Indians can hit but have pitching problems, while the Royals pitching is good but they can’t hit. I don’t see the similarity.

Comment From Brian
What would Jason Heyward receive on the open market? He has had a strange habit of mixing good and bad years.

Dave Cameron: He’s a very tough guy to peg.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
If all goes according to plan do you see the Twins being great in 2-3 years with all the solid young prospects they have in the pipeline

Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think having a couple of good prospects can turn a franchise around.

Comment From Scott
Looking forward to the trade value series this year. When are you going to start this? Trout, Harper, Machado, Harvey, Longo as the top 5?

Dave Cameron: I’m going to run it during the All-Star break again. Was considering moving it up, but it’s a good fit since there’s no baseball to talk about that week. The list isn’t finalized, but I will note that Harvey won’t be top five. Pitchers are just too flimsy.

Comment From ryan
hypothetically, how much money would the Phils have to offer to send along to get a Howard trade done?

Dave Cameron: However much is left on his contract plus $1.

Comment From JWR
How should the casual fan view the international signings? The Cubs have apparently signed two of the top guys but they are all 16 or 17 years old. These guys are presumably 4-6 years from the majors, if they ever get there at all, right?

Dave Cameron: The casual fan should just say “hey, neat, my team is investing in the future.” When you were a kid, did you complain about your parents putting money into a retirement account?

Comment From Jason
Have you gone on record yet regarding Puig’s potential status as an All-Star?

Dave Cameron: I’d put him on the team, and I’d make Jonathan Papelbon carry his bags.

Comment From Kevin S
What do you think will be Oakland’s priority at the deadline, middle infield or SP?

Dave Cameron: Middle infield.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
What would it take for the Dbacks to get the Sammy the Tight End from the Cubs? Skaggs?

Dave Cameron: More. Samardzija is an ace.

Comment From bdhudson
Does Carson talk like he writes?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Carson is Carson.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
What is your reaction to the Feldman trade?

Dave Cameron: Wrote it up yesterday. It’s on the site.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Why is Kuroda not considered an ace?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t throw hard enough? People really underrate him.

Comment From zack
Your idea of the pirates acquiring Nate Schierholtz is crazy. Cubs would never deal him within the division.

Dave Cameron: The whole trade within the division thing is silly. If you’re making a veteran for prospect trade, you think it’s making your team better for the future, thus by default, it is making the other team worse in the future. Teams should want to make their division contenders worse in the future.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Cardinals WS favorites in your eyes?

Dave Cameron: Might still lean towards the Tigers because they have the easiest path to the playoffs.

Comment From Trevor
What do the Nationals do at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Add a starting pitcher and a RH hitter.

Comment From sea salt
by not trading Utley and M. Young, will the phils get first rd draft picks if they sign elsewhere next year?

Dave Cameron: Only if they make them a qualifying offer. Utley’s probably a bubble guy based on his health and age, and offering Young $14 million for next year would be beyond stupid.

Comment From Marcus A.
Eric Hosmer’s best big league wRC+ is 114, is it possible he’s just not very good? Also, how would you compare him in terms of long term value to Justin Smoak?

Dave Cameron: It certainly seems like this young crop of first base prospects were all overhyped. Toss Ike Davis in that mix too.

Comment From rja3
Do the Mariners have anything that would get them in to the Joc Pederson market?

Dave Cameron: Iwakuma, but he’s not going anywhere. So no.

Comment From Travis
Is “one B prospect and some filler” worth more than the compensation pick the Cubs could get for Garza?

Dave Cameron: More. The B prospect is going to be closer to the majors and won’t cost you money to sign.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
4th of July plans?

Dave Cameron: We’re getting our dog tonight, so I’m pretty sure my entire weekend is going to be throwing balls and potty training.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
What is Phil Hughes trade value? 1 elite prospect?

Dave Cameron: Are you joking? I’m not sure I’d give up anything of value for Hughes.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
What would it take for the Cardinals to land Cano?

Dave Cameron: Why would the Cardinals spend $250 million on Cano?

Comment From Yogi
Could Ervin Santana be dealt?

Dave Cameron: In the sane world where KC knows they aren’t contenders, sure.

Comment From G-men
What does Tim Lincecum’s contract look like next year and who gives it to him?

Dave Cameron: 1/10, Seattle.

Comment From Rick
Coming from a huge Cubs fan– is it possible the Cubs are getting too much love for the Feldman deal? Steve Clevenger is a catcher with a .370+ OBP in the minors, and isn’t Scott Feldman arguably good enough for any team to want to keep around at the right price. In return, they get a couple of fringy pitchers, and the cash to sign 16 year old lottery tickets. This deal reminds me a little bit of the Paul Maholm deal last year; In Arodys Vizcaino, the Cubs got a future reliever (at best, given his persistent arm issues) and while passing on the opportunity to keep a LHP with a 3.67 ERA since the start of 2011 in Paul Maholm…

Dave Cameron: And they replaced Paul Maholm with Scott Feldman, who cost them the same salary they would have paid Maholm anyway. Smart teams can rebuild their pitching staffs every off-season with good value buys.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
What are the odds Trout and Harper aren’t 1 and 2 on trade value series? I guess a better question would be who is the frontrunner for #3

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s no suspense there. Those two are the obvious top two, so the list really begins at #3.

Comment From THE Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Settle an argument. I think scouting isn’t that tough. We have Pitch F/x and the teams have Field F/x and Hit F/x that basically do it for you. My buddy says it’s very tough and not many can do it well.

Dave Cameron: Your buddy is right. By the way, FIELDF/x isn’t a thing yet.

Comment From JB
What kind of value does Seattle get in return for packaging a deal like J. Saunders and B. Ryan together? B prospect? (Thanks for theses chats, Dave!)

Dave Cameron: No one’s giving you a B prospect for a bench player and a guy who belongs in the bullpen.

Comment From Rick
Also re: the Cubs possibly overvaluing International $$– isn’t Ronald Torreyes, the youngest player in the Southern League, exceedingly more likely to have a big league career that vitrtually every 16 year old player on the planet?

Dave Cameron: Who cares about likelihood to have a big league career? What you care about is overall value. I’d rather have a 10% chance at $1 million than a 90% chance at $10.

Comment From Jack
Can you summarize on how Bobby Bonilla receives $1.19 mil every July 1st for the next 25 years or so from the Mets? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: His salary was deferred.

Comment From Bucco
Re: Lee’s value. Performance **OVER REPLACEMENT** – Value. In a pennant race, you’d rather have Lee for $25M than Harang for $0. Lee’s value is huge for a contender with a Hanrang level starter. Replacement level is completely different than normal here. Right?

Dave Cameron: Lee’s value isn’t huge because he costs so much. His performance is worth a lot, but the cost is an offsetting factor.

Comment From jesse
The Rays don’t do something wacky like dealing Price. they just play the season out and take the comp pick for him right?

Dave Cameron: He’s not a free agent at the end of the year. They’ll trade him in the off-season.

Comment From Dustin
Is Yasiel Puig still swinging at everything an issue if he’s still getting results? Obviously it’s not an ideal process, but should he be adjusting now, or does adjustment come once his results begin to reflect his approach?

Dave Cameron: The adjustments come when pitchers stop throwing him strikes. See Hamilton, Josh.

Comment From Guest
Does the Casper Wells=Cody Ross comp still hold up after Wells performance this season?

Dave Cameron: You mean after 40 at-bats? Yeah, it still holds.

Comment From LarryA
Do you think the cubs actually know who Tango is, or is he anonymous to them too?

Dave Cameron: I’m sure they know his real name. They have to pay him.

Comment From Bruce
Are teams allowed to trade 2013 draftees yet?

Dave Cameron: No, a player can’t be traded until 6 months after they sign. The rule is actually 12 months, but you can trade them as a PTBNL, which don’t have to be named for 6.

Comment From Gabe
Wait, you think the Rays will trade Price? Please explain?

Dave Cameron: He’s getting very expensive, so they’ll move him for cheaper, lower cost talent.

Comment From zack
Why did the Yankees think it was a good idea to pay Vernon Wells the same amount of money the pirates are paying Russell Martin?

Dave Cameron: This is really the question no one knows the answer to.

Comment From Matt T
Know anything about the guy the Cubs just signed, Eloy Jimenez?

Dave Cameron: Ben Badler, who owns the international market reporting beat, thinks he’s the best prospect available this year.

Comment From Marcus A.
What’s most responsible for the dearth of available talent this deadline, extra wild card, increase in long-term extensions, smarter gms, or something else?

Dave Cameron: extra wild card. Everyone’s “still in it” now, even if they aren’t really.

Comment From ralph
Biggest impact bat you see moving?

Dave Cameron: Aramis Ramirez.

Comment From Gregory
Do you like Hawaiian pizza?

Dave Cameron: I like pineapple on my pizza, but not a big fan of Canadian Bacon.

Comment From Nick
Would you trade Matt Harvey+ for Stanton in the offseason?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Marcus A.
Who is marc w that writes for USSM? He does a good job, just don’t know much about him.

Dave Cameron: His name is Marc Webster, he lives in Tacoma, and he’s awesome.

Comment From Rick
Am I crazy for not thinking a 16-year old prospect is worth giving up a quality, inexpensive major league pitcher and a young catcher with a .370+ OBP in the minors?

Dave Cameron: Yep, because that’s not what the trade was.

Comment From Steve
Whenever someone says CBA I think of the Congressional Budget Office. Is this a good or bad thing

Dave Cameron: Probably bad, considering CBA and CBO are different.

Comment From Nik
So Pujols has 100 million dollars of value while Howard is worthless? Guess which player is better this season.

Dave Cameron: Guess who doesn’t evaluate players based on three month samples?

Comment From bdhudson
Continuing survey: Full-time FG writer cagematch. Who win? Sullivan’s answer was: Not Carson

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s a pretty good answer. Though probably Not Appelman too.

Comment From Guest
Is Clubhouse Confidential just on hiatus? MLB Now is inferior.

Dave Cameron: It’s an offseason only show.

Comment From Matt T
Any chance the Mariners deal Mike Morse?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, if anyone wants a broken down DH rental.

Comment From Turtles of Tasman
Can a schedule of Live Chats be put on the site?????

Dave Cameron: They’re always at noon. Szymborski on Monday, Sullivan on Tuesday, I’m on Wednesday, Eno’s on Thursday, Hulet’s on Friday.

Comment From bdhudson
What kind of dog?

Dave Cameron: yellow lab mix. We don’t know what the Dad is, since it’s a rescue.

Comment From bdhudson
I have a dark chocolate and bacon cupcake in front of me I wouldn’t give up for Phil Hughes.

Dave Cameron: Phil Hughes is lousy.

Comment From Baron Von Waffles
What type of contract to you believe price signs? a possible 10yr deal that becomes an alabtross in the future or one of the smarter higher AAV?

Dave Cameron: Teams don’t give pitchers 10 year deals, especially not ones who just spent time on the DL.

Comment From JWR
How concerned should Mariners fans be about Felix’s velocity drop (both in prior years and this year)?

Dave Cameron: Not at all.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch and do some writing before the dog arrives. Enjoy your 4th of July everyone.