FanGraphs Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 1 Chat
8:01 |
: Hey everybody, welcome to our NLCS chat
|
8:01 |
: The gang is all here — and by that I mean Kyle, Davy, and me
|
8:02 |
: Let’s answer some questions and enjoy a fun game
|
8:02 |
: Love that you can say neither of these two were built the one and only Right Way
|
8:02 |
: Yeah I am very excited for that
|
8:02 |
: “Build your team just like the Padres” is an impossible sentence
|
8:03 |
: Lets go phillies! 09 remake please!
|
8:03 |
: Tonight we root for the Phillies *and* prepare for an inevitable economic disaster.
|
8:03 |
: Just me or was that end of game mocking of the Guardians by the Yankees extremely petty and dumb (and something that’ll lead to some retaliation next season)?
|
8:03 |
: I thought it was completely called for
|
8:03 |
: That’s mocking Naylor in particular, and Naylor was asking for it
|
8:03 |
: You don’t tell the other team you’re their daddy and not expect them to say something back
|
8:03 |
: Particularly when you’re down a bunch of runs?
|
8:04 |
: No blows were exchanged, no headhunting, just some enjoyable trash talk (and gestures)
|
8:04 |
: Last time they chanted whos your daddy wasn’t it at Pedro in 09?
|
8:04 |
: Ha I think so, and I enjoyed that one too!
|
8:04 |
: A championship series with two teams high on fun and relatively low on evil! *Glares at ALCS.*
|
8:04 |
: Yeah, I would say America will be rooting for the winner of this series but I guess some shocking amount of America roots for the Yankees
|
8:05 |
: And Szym for a hile!
|
8:05 |
: white
|
8:05 |
: while
|
8:05 |
: Hey Dan, thanks for stopping by!
|
8:05 |
: Me exhausted, but I can’t resist coming to ruin a chat!
|
8:05 |
: Which team got more bandwagon fans for this series? The Padres just by being not-Philadelphia?
|
8:06 |
: I would agree, but I think Philly won over more people than you might guess. They’re awfully fun. (Also, hi everyone.)
|
8:06 |
: Yeah, this is a rather likable Phillies team
|
8:07 |
: I think neutral fans will split, both of these teams are fun
|
8:07 |
: Padres are more fun, to be fair. But they’re both fun
|
8:07 |
: Im here for Bryce and beating the Padres (disgruntled dodger fan)
|
8:08 |
: Smoltz still thinks everyone is in the 90’s
|
8:08 |
: Mentioning that in the playoffs, they watch video
|
8:08 |
: Players watch lots of video about EVERYONE these days
|
8:08 |
: “The playoffs are special, because you study your opponent” hasn’t been true in quite a while
|
8:09 |
: Your advance team might do more, but players aren’t just rolling into town blind and spending their first two innings figuring out what the opposing pitcher throws
|
8:09 |
: Smoltz hasn’t turned his calendar over since 1999 (must be afraid of Y2K still)
|
8:09 |
: Hey, it was scary!
|
8:10 |
: Joe Davis adds more than Smoltz takes away I think
|
8:11 |
: He’s excellent. Also he likes to reference FanGraphs, fingers crossed!
|
8:12 |
: Is it smoltz and Davis today (in class and only have live AB)
|
8:12 |
: Yup
|
8:12 |
: I’d love to see Randy Arozarena on third base against Darvish
|
8:12 |
: I think he’d try to steal home on that leg hang
|
8:12 |
: The AL teams are the worst and second worst. I’m an NL well wisher (in that I don’t wish them any specific harm)
|
8:13 |
: Of course, if the Padres win the World Series, you’ll have a lot of people on the bandwagon that called them chokers who would never win this time last year
|
8:14 |
: Yeah, like Guest. Guest has all kinds of opinions in our chats!
|
8:13 |
: Cronenworthahelluvalot apparently
|
8:13 |
: WOWOW
|
8:14 |
: well that was a decent play
|
8:14 |
: Everyone here is at last 15 seconds ahead of me.
|
8:15 |
: It’s fun when teams put defenders in places where guys are likely to hit it and then those defenders make cool plays. Hope nobody stops teams from doing that.
|
8:16 |
: Don’t worry, the “shift ban” will still result in some pretty fun plays by defenders
|
8:16 |
: Perhaps even better ones
|
8:16 |
: I happen to love the 2b ranging over past second and Jetering it over to first play
|
8:16 |
: They’ll just be in slightly different places
|
8:16 |
: LIke when people act like 90 feet is best distance because a lot of close plays
|
8:16 |
: There will be a lot of close plays at any distance!
|
8:17 |
: It’s just they’re not close right now
|
8:17 |
: Dan, it’s going to be three inches shorter next year. Baseball will be ruined forever
|
8:17 |
: You have 120 feet between bases and you’ll have bang bang plays that are ground balls to right
|
8:18 |
: Tell me why I should like the Phillies. I have no opinion about them.
|
8:18 |
actually 90 feet, anyway
: and it’s not |
8:18 |
: Bryce Harper wears this amazing Philly Phanatic eyes headband. J.T. Realmuto is a catcher who hit an inside the park home run. Rhys Hoskins is underqualified to play first base which makes for some hilarious baseball. The pitching is really fun. David Robertson is a joy
|
8:19 |
: Oh wow Harper isn’t wearing the Phanatic band today. Is it a home only thing?
|
8:19 |
: I wonder if it takes Darvish longer to settle in than most guys. Harder to tell what’s working and what isn’t when you throw 40 different pitches
|
8:19 |
: His ERA and FIP are indeed higher the first time through the order.
|
8:20 |
: Darvish doesn’t really have individual pitches. They’re all improvisations
|
8:20 |
: Is the argument of whether to use your best pitcher on three days rest one of those things that will be around forever?
|
8:21 |
: Will starters be around forever?
|
8:21 |
: Nah always use Civale
|
8:21 |
: The real travesty is that no one is yelling at them about the option to bullpen it
|
8:22 |
: yes, because the dinosaurs will find their way into national booths
|
8:22 |
: Someday we’ll be the dinosaurs
|
8:22 |
: The three sliders is the best part of Darvish
|
8:22 |
: I wanna be 80 and going on about how the players of MY day weren’t disrespectful cyborgs
|
8:22 |
: Three? I’m a buyer at three
|
8:23 |
: I think my favorite Darvish anecdote was the time he saw Craig Kimbrel throwing a knuckle curve and just learned it
|
8:23 |
: Like, oh you have a good curveball, I’m gonna take that
|
8:23 |
: The eight sliders is the best part of going to White Castle.
|
8:23 |
: Hello! I have arrived, excited to chat with everyone!
|
8:24 |
: Hey KK
|
8:24 |
: Hey Kyle
|
8:24 |
: “In our day we didn’t have 12 pitchers pitching per game, we actually had one pitcher start and pitch half the game, and we liked it!”
|
8:24 |
: We had a universal DH instead of three universal DH’s!
|
8:25 |
slutter
: Loopy, slider, |
8:25 |
: the fact that pitch com had to make more buttons just for Darvish is the greatest fact of all time
|
8:25 | : |
8:25 |
: I’m pretty sure the Phillies already have 3 DHs
|
8:25 |
: They’re a team ahead of their time
|
8:26 |
: MULTIBALL! MULTIBALLL!
|
8:26 |
: Where’s pinball enthusiast Dylan Higgins when you need him?
|
8:27 |
: I’d be happy with a moat, of course
|
8:27 |
: shout out to Sam Miller
|
8:28 |
: I still secretly hope that the real future of baseball is Super Baseball 2020 for the SNES
|
8:28 |
: ITS TOO LATE
|
8:28 |
: Okay, so the graphic for Bell/Wheeler said ‘includes postseason’
|
8:28 |
: Have they faced off against each other in the palyoffs? Certainly not right?
|
8:28 |
: 5yr/200 offer to Judge. Full no trade, opt-out after each season. Mutual option 40M/20M buyout. Does he accept?
|
8:28 |
: Like when has Bell made the playoffs?
|
8:28 |
: I don’t think he does
|
8:28 |
: Is 5/200 really THAT much different than 7/200?
|
8:28 |
: ANd he could have gotten that BEFORE the season
|
8:28 |
: It’s like….. 30 million bucks different, but I’m with you Dan
|
8:29 |
: But I mean the expectation for the out years is so low anyway
|
8:29 |
: you don’t think he could get 2/30 at 36? I bet he could
|
8:29 |
: but yeah
|
8:29 |
: it’s certainly not 80 million dollars different
|
8:30 |
: Why did everyone get mad about upsets this playoffs when the Red Sox did this last year, Nationals 2019, or god forbid whatever the Cardinals did in 2006? It’s not like the Padres or Phillies aren’t super obscure out of the media’s focus teams
|
8:30 |
: The Braves won literally last year after 88 wins
|
8:30 |
: I wonder what Twitter would have looked like after the Phillies won it all with 83 wins
|
8:30 |
: Personally I’m mad that there weren’t more upsets on the AL side.
|
8:31 |
: I too was rooting mainly for chaos.
|
8:31 |
: Dan, if you were judge, would you accept 8/280?
|
8:31 |
: I would
|
8:32 |
: We need to celebrate the regular season winner more. MLS has the Community Shield that is celebrated by players and fans alike.
|
8:32 |
: I would totally be in favor of a regular season trophy.
|
8:32 |
: Me too, but I would want it to be comically small.
|
8:32 |
: Just a scrap of metal, literally
|
8:33 |
: Does anyone in the NHL, fan or player, care about the President’s Trophy?
|
8:33 |
: No, but it helps that the Stanley Cup is the most iconic trophy in sports
|
8:33 |
: Look at the 1991 World Series. The Braves & Twins went from the basement in 1990 to WS in 1991
|
8:33 |
: the Buffaloes and Swallows are about to face off in the Japan series for the second year in a row after both being last place in their leagues 2 years ago!
|
8:34 |
: @That Guy–yes, because people dunk on the Presidents Trophy winner if they choke in the playoffs (see: 2019 Bolts)
|
8:34 |
: The President’s Cup is actually super enjoyable. I love the superstition about not touching it, for example. Having a trophy that people hate getting is amazing.
|
8:34 |
: Okay, I’d just like to point out that John Smoltz has a pronounced TTO split
|
8:35 |
darvish tends to get himself into deep counts because the full-count strikeout is valorized in japan…? is…that a thing?
: in the top of the first, did i hear smoltz correctly in saying something like: |
8:36 |
: I missed that, but I can’t comment either way. Never heard of it
|
8:35 |
: Not just as a pitcher. He also talks about golf a lot more in the late innings.
|
8:36 |
: “He (Darvish) gets tougher as he stays in the game longer”. Fact check, please.
|
8:36 |
: Inaccurate
|
8:36 |
: He has very standard career TTO splits
|
8:36 |
: it’s like…. .279/.283/.299 in wOBA, or something
|
8:36 |
: Go Tetsuto Yamada
|
8:36 |
sincerely, a buffaloes fan |
8:37 |
: See, he just makes up breaking pitches as he goes along
|
8:37 |
: You know how a transmission has gears?
|
8:38 |
: Davy said earlier that his ERA and FIP are higher consistently higher than normal in the first, so it’s kinda true
|
8:38 |
kinda true
: So it’s |
8:38 |
: Darvish is a CVT (if CVTs didn’t suck)
|
8:38 |
: Yeah… first inning is a high scoring inning though, etc
|
8:38 |
: The concept of a non-sucky CVT doesn’t make sense to me
|
8:38 |
: That was the only thing I hated about my Subaru! That CVT
|
8:39 |
: I should’ve looked at career, not just 2022. Career it’s actually not true for ERA.
|
8:39 |
It would be logistically impossible to enforce.
These are all of Darvish’s pitches. As you can see, he has multiple variations of cutters and sliders. And it would be quite easy to say that he SHOULD have thrown a pitch to drop 30 inches, but instead it dropped 24 inches. Now.. I offer a really stupid idea for discussion purposes. joeposnanski.substack.com/p/a-really-stu…
|
8:39 |
: Wow, Darvish is now taking curveballs from pitchers who aren’t even on his team
|
8:39 |
: that’s wild!
|
8:40 |
: First time through the order, I meant
|
8:40 |
: darvish splits through the order: .624/.651/.688 ops
|
8:40 |
: (I’m happy to have a normal transmission again)
|
8:41 |
: I drove a stick shift as a teenager and swore by it, but as far as I can tell automatic transmissions are just great now
|
8:42 |
: Sonny Gray works the same way, right? Just a bunch of different breaking ball shapes depending on what he’s feeling.
|
8:42 |
: One of my favorite quirks in pitching is the cutting splitter, I saw a few years back on Sharks pitch mix page his cut just as much as it ran
|
8:43 |
: Sonny Gray will forever be a ‘bad slider’ guy to me even though his slider is great
|
8:43 | : Darvish inning splits here, by the way: |
8:43 |
: B/c of his rant about the Yankees’ philosophy
|
8:43 |
: and because I am a company man, here are his career times through the order splits, available on FanGraphs!
|
8:44 |
: Does the new 3 game WC format penalize the best teams? The first impression is that the rust really affected the Braves and Dodgers.
|
8:44 |
: I doubt it, but it’s hard to test
|
8:44 |
: My prior is that it does not. Hard to say from 4 series, half of which the favorites won
|
8:45 |
: nah this is just reading too much into a sample size of 2 teams – each team was playing sim games to keep their hitters fresh and i guarantee every team would take a bye if offered
|
8:45 |
: Basically whatever I thought before this postseason, I’d still think
|
8:45 |
: also like, even if rust was a factor it’s definitely not enough to make teams want to take a coin flip chance of winning their WC series
|
8:46 |
: I guess the argument would be relative to the previous format. Obviously in the current format you’d always take the bye
|
8:46 |
: Aren’t all pitches just a spectrum of movement or something
|
8:46 |
How does Yu Darvish change the speed and shape of his Cutter??
More amazing stuff from @faridyu, pitch grip genius. 🤯 If you’re a Pitcher, Coach or Fan of Pitching, you can’t miss this. Watch the FULL 20 minute discussion! YouTube Link–>youtu.be/850Ju8-JxZU |
8:47 |
: I really loved this.
|
8:47 |
: But I actually think the three games no off days nature is a pretty rough punishment for the non-bye teams. The Phillies only got to start Wheeler and Nola once each. The Braves just, uh, sucked
|
8:47 |
: Did you guys know that Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander each have 13.50 ERA’s this postseason? My dad gave me that stat and I loved it too much not to share it
|
8:48 |
: How much does pitch sequencing matter? If every catcher held a random number generator weighted to what overall percentages of each pitch should be thrown (calibrated for handedness, etc. if you really want), would that be meaningfully different from the status quo?
|
8:48 | : it’s something that’s quite hard to study but it’s been done before. i think there would be an explosion in that type of research if robo umps became a thing and now game calling would likely be the most important catcher defensive skill |
8:50 |
: The rust argument has been around forever in the NFL playoff format as well, but in reality playoff games/series are just about random when you have a .640 team playing a .590 team
|
8:50 |
@Cubsfan_97 @EWPod Ok, well that sounds like my work. The number is 14 games for the NBA… that’s the number of games needed where half of what you see in the W/L record is real and half is random variation. Here are those (historical) numbers:
12 NFL 14 NBA 36 NHL 70 MLB |
8:50 |
: Yeah, Lopez/Baumer/Matthews got 75 for MLB
|
8:50 |
: That’s a great clip. Feels like something more guys should experiment with.
|
8:51 |
: It’s hard to be Yu Darvish, as it turns out. More people should experiment, but he’s probably a unicorn.
|
8:51 |
: Whatever it is, it would have to be a HUGE series
|
8:52 |
: @Dan, I’ve cited your Padres/Dodgers preview article about a thousand times in the past week, specifically the part about how you would need a 151 game series to give the Dodgers a 90/10 advantage
|
8:52 |
: Darvish is so fun to watch
|
8:52 |
: It’s nice of the teams to not get any baserunners so we can ramble on about playoff formats, but I just thought I’d interject that he’s great
|
8:52 |
: he’s gotta be on a very short list of pitchers who top out at over a foot of sweep and over 20 inches of fastball carry
|
8:52 |
: That was a fun thing to experiment with!
|
8:53 |
: I like how he threw 94 past him, and then just came back with 97
|
8:53 |
: like, that’s not cool!
|
8:54 |
: The spin on that splitter was very aesthetically pleasing
|
8:54 |
: Probably had a crazy amount of seam-shifted wake, too. It caught one seam more or less perfectly on the back of the ball
|
8:55 |
: I assume the AI has a nightmare of a time identifying categories of pitches that Darvish is throwing ?
|
8:55 |
: oh yeah, absolutely. pitchinfo thinks basically everything he throws is a slider, but hawkeye distinguishes between cutters and sliders pretty well.
|
8:56 |
: Ah yes. Trying to hit a home run is doing the pitcher a favor
|
8:56 |
: My least favorite ‘here’s how to hit’ argument
|
8:57 |
: If he really wanted to mess with the pitcher, he’d go for a walk
|
8:57 |
: Well, that’s only leading off an inning where you trail, obviously
|
8:57 |
: But at that point you should definitely be trying to walk not hoer
|
8:57 |
: homer*
|
8:58 |
: How close to impossible is it for the Giants in 2021 and the Orioles in 2022 to both come to very, very close to touching their 99th percentile? One seems okay but back to back years tests the limits of probability.
|
8:58 |
: Long term, I don’t have more +99th percentiles than expected by random chance
|
9:01 |
: You should have a 99th percentile team in a quarter of seasons
|
9:01 |
: Wait, uh, John Smoltz says he doesn’t like scoring runs early
|
9:01 |
: Okay this is absurd
|
9:01 |
: Oh man.
|
9:02 |
: It’s just so frustrating to have this as the voice of the playoffs with no one saying “wait John this sounds weird”
|
9:02 |
: someone needs to make a john smoltz galaxy brain meme
|
9:02 |
: And in any case, the O’s were only 97th!@
|
9:03 |
: The playoff odds were near 0 because ZiPS didn’t expect that 83 would make the AL much
|
9:04 |
: I understand that he’s a gruff old legend who calls it like he sees it and doesn’t take any crap from anybody, but I dunno, Aaron Goldsmith has asked him to elaborate when they do games together and it’s worked out well
|
9:05 |
: I had someone ask me whether I’d consider our odds a sham if the Orioles got within 10 games of a playoff spot
|
9:05 |
: was that person Adam Wainwright?
|
9:05 |
: And I think I said “No, wait, what?”
|
9:05 |
: I still think Wainwright meant it a little tongue in cheek
|
9:06 |
: But maybe that’s just b/c he’s my favorite
|
9:06 |
: i loved that article you wrote that was like “nah we’re right, x% of teams historically with x% playoff odds have made it”
|
9:07 |
: I have no idea if we’re right! But we seem less wrong than the alternative of guessing randomly
|
9:07 |
: “Both teams are waiting for a mistake to hit, but there haven’t been many”
|
9:07 |
: these guys are both pumping middle middle fastballs lol
|
9:08 |
: Congrats to Meg on her Mariners game three article. It was poetry; everyone should go read it (and then come back here).
|
9:08 |
: Even Haldabrand tried a walk with Galadriel before going for thehomer
|
9:08 |
: the philadephia philadelphias are on the board!
|
9:09 |
: juuuuuuust enough
|
9:09 |
: The Philadelphiers
|
9:09 |
: If I were facing Harper, I’d be feeding him fastballs
|
9:09 |
: I know that doesn’t make much sense historically but he broke his thumb
|
9:10 |
: Does Darvish have a good shot at having the biggest mph difference between the average of his 20 slowest pitches of the season and 20 fastest?
|
9:10 |
: darvish’s difference is about 30 mph (68 to 97.7), unless greinke has thrown that many eephuses i would guess he’s the highest
|
9:11 |
: Harper heard you, Ben.
|
9:12 |
: He sure did!
|
9:12 |
: I still like the approach though
|
9:12 |
: Verducci pulling out the axl rose comp for darvish..disavow
|
9:13 |
: as a pitcher i generally wouldn’t complain about an opposite field non barreled fly ball, but harper is just too strong
|
9:13 |
: I was not expecting a Guns n Roses reference
|
9:13 |
: And how is it not about Harper’s headbands?
|
9:13 |
: Bohm seemed mildly displeased
|
9:14 |
: Dan the Mild
|
9:14 |
: Kyle, I did the Smoltz galaxy brain, how can I put the image here
|
9:14 |
: you could upload to imgur
|
9:14 |
: If the typical starting pitcher could add a pitch that was pretty unexceptional but passable enough to throw 5% of the time, should he?
|
9:14 |
: My guess: yes
|
9:14 |
: My research on this: nonexistent
|
9:15 |
: Unless it cut into training time for improving their other pitches, which seems totally believable
|
9:15 |
: I believe for 2 pitch guys adding a 3rd a small fraction of the time, even a below average pitch, is generally good
|
9:15 |
: I imagine it would depend on the quality of his other offerings and how it played off them. Does it tunnel with something else and make it better?
|
9:16 | : you can read more about tunneling (and how cutters are a great example of the pitch davy is talking about) here! |
9:16 |
: When Bohm took that third strike I was reminded of Ernie Harwell and his famous line “He stood there like a house by the side of the road and watched that go by.” Memories like this make me realize why baseball still means so much to me.
|
9:16 |
: Great baseball announcers are so great
|
9:17 |
: I have to say, Wheeler’s plan of pounding the strike zone against everyone other than Juan Soto is an interesting one
|
9:18 |
![]() |
9:18 |
: interesting = good?
|
9:18 |
: It can be!
|
9:19 |
: I don’t think it makes a ton of sense here, but I dunno, I suppose I can see it
|
9:19 |
: Not so much if you’re going to try to get back into the count, though
|
9:19 |
: Good job by the ump calling that second strike; Wheeler missed his spot by a fair bit.
|
9:19 |
: Yeah excellent work there. Realmuto was fully cross-body
|
9:19 |
: “One will always corrupt. Two will divide,” she explains, to which Celebrimbor adds that “with three, there is balance.”
|
9:19 |
: So THAT’s where A-Rod got the idea
|
9:20 |
: No, doesn’t A-Rod like the even ones?
|
9:20 |
: I mean, he messed it up a bit
|
9:20 |
: That was an excellent pitch
|
9:20 |
: I think we should take a moment to appreciate the city connect colors on Soto’s shinguard.
|
9:20 |
: I mean, I think the umpire was going to ring him up on anything close after missing the last call, but it was also a strike
|
9:21 |
: Oswaldo Cabrera hits well enough to start in outfield on a playoff team known for it’s offense and plays competent SS defense. Doesn’t this sound like someone who should have a full season major league role or was he simply not this good 6 months ago.
|
9:21 |
: That’s a great question. I think he was more blocked than anything else
|
9:21 |
: When you don’t nkow how a young player will perform in the majors, maybe it’s safer to run out low-variance veterans
|
9:22 |
: I bet that if you asked the Yankees if they’d accept this year’s Oswaldo Cabrera line, they’d say yes and cut Hicks before the season
|
9:22 |
: is oswaldo the lightest player in the league, at least by the weights we list on the site? listed at 145
|
9:24 |
: Probably. I don’t for a second believe that he’s lighter than McKenzie, though
|
9:24 |
: (listed at 165)
|
9:24 |
: McKenzie will blow away in a small wind
|
9:24 |
: But he’s seven inches taller.
|
9:25 |
: I would love to write that article: Which MLB player would make the best sail for a pirate ship?
|
9:25 |
: What should the Padres do at first base next year?
|
9:26 |
: Mmmm…. I don’t think Eguy Rosario can actually play first, and I don’t really know of any other obvious in-system fixes
|
9:26 |
: They could sign one of the various FA stopgaps, or maybe move Drury there?
|
9:28 |
: They should go get a veteran leader type who’s won a World Series and makes a lot of contact.
|
9:28 |
: The Red Sox have one they could part with, for the right price
|
9:28 |
: Vogelbach would be the anchor.
|
9:29 |
: Who do you have as MVP of Wild Card + LDS combined? Yordan?
|
9:30 |
: maybe not the #1 MVP but Aaron Nola deserves some credit
|
9:29 |
![]() |
9:30 |
: That makes him less aerodynamic though, so Dan is still correct
|
9:30 |
: Hmmm…. I might go with Aaron Nola
|
9:30 |
: 12 scoreless innings seems good
|
9:30 |
: And big shout out to Trevor Stephan, who is definitely not the MVP but was maybe the best reliever in the postseason
|
9:30 |
: By statline at least
|
9:30 |
: jeez
|
9:31 |
: Yeah Kyle! Agree on Nola
|
9:32 |
: Harper has had a pretty excellent postseason career up to this point, do you think this perception is hurt by his team getting bounced so early before this year?
|
9:32 |
: I vote for Harper. It took me quite awhile before I appreciated him but his passion and the way he structured his contract with no buy outs has completely won me over
|
9:32 |
: I might put Harper and Grisham in the conversation.
|
9:32 | : |
9:32 |
: Both good calls. There have been a lot of standout performances, though none that have been Arozarenesque
|
9:33 |
: Can Harper hold a sail with a broken thumb?
|
9:33 |
: if you can hold a bat, you can hold a sail
|
9:33 |
![]() |
9:33 |
: That got me.
|
9:34 |
: Playoffs into today .213/.289/.349 with like a 27%K rate is what I just hear Sciambi say on ESPN radio
|
9:35 |
: That seems wrong. We have him at .263/.351/.596 before today, which you can see on his player page
|
9:34 |
![]() |
9:35 |
: oh, right, the “hit” thing!
|
9:35 |
: Dan are you using an AI image generator? Or good old photoshop? The quality is great
|
9:35 |
: Midvalley!
|
9:35 |
: Myers seemed annoyed that Fangraphs chat wants to replace him for next year
|
9:36 |
: I’m a huge Wil Myers fan. But he’s a free agent
|
9:36 |
: what do you think the Padres plan to do with Luis Campusano moving forward?
|
9:37 |
: I don’t think even *they* no
|
9:37 |
: know
|
9:37 |
: The older I get, the worse my typing! lol
|
9:37 |
: my Nats fan friend about Harper’s postseason career: “Yeah Bryce was not the problem. It was Drew Storen and Matt Williams and Max Scherzer giving up home runs”
|
9:37 |
: There’s this weird tendency of people to blame their best player for stuff instead of their worst
|
9:37 |
: He also had the flu during the 2012 NLDS, which make up more than 20% of his PO ABs.
|
9:37 |
: I am not over the 2012 NLDS>
|
9:38 |
: until the HR chase, there were a surprising number of Giants fans who thought Bonds held them back in the playoffs
|
9:38 |
: oh my god i literally saw a tweet today saying that bonds wasn’t a clutch hitter because he just got walked in high leverage situations
|
9:38 |
: Davy I went to the 2012 NLDS G5
|
9:38 |
: Wearing a David Freese jersey
|
9:38 |
: I was at G4 and G5! Very definitely not wearing a David Freese jersey.
|
9:38 |
: I quickly took it off after the Cards came back
|
9:39 |
: I took the Amtrak down and went to the stadium with my stuff for the weekend, just couldn’t miss it
|
9:39 |
: That’s awesome.
|
9:39 |
: I have placed Williams replacing Zimmermann with Storen as the #1 worst managerial move of all time.
|
9:39 |
: Yeah…. it was a pretty bad one
|
9:39 |
: Leaving Kershaw in there in relief in 2019 is not great, and tehre’s Grady Little
|
9:39 |
: That says something when you realize I am a Red Sox and Grady Little is only in 2ns place.
|
9:39 |
: Indeed!
|
9:40 |
wouldn’t mean he wasn’t a clutch hitter #howcanyounotbepedanticaboutbaseball
: to be fair, Bonds getting walked |
9:41 |
would* : thank you, autocorrect |
9:41 |
: I distinctly remember this very chat trying to defend taking out Zimmerman rather than letting him finish the game! Hypocrisy!!! /s
|
9:41 |
: Will Wheeler make it through seven? Will the Pads witchcraft show up again?
|
9:41 |
: I think he’ll get through 7. This is not a great lineup aside from the studs at the top
|
9:42 |
: SCHWARBER!
|
9:42 |
: Wow
|
9:42 |
: That’s some home run
|
9:42 |
488 FEET |
9:43 |
: Hardest ball Schwarber’s ever hit, right?
|
9:43 |
: I believe so
|
9:43 |
: jeeeeez
|
9:44 |
: Matheny bringing Wacha in to pitch the 9th in a game 7….Matheny not bringing in Choate against Big Papi because…. Matheny
|
9:44 |
: OK all, I’m headed out for the night, enjoy the last three!
|
9:44 |
: well, last four!
|
9:44 |
![]() |
9:44 |
: Have a good one, Dan, thanks for hanging out
|
9:45 |
: Yup. Previous high was 117.6 mph.
|
9:45 |
: guessing that is out in 30/30 ballparks
|
9:45 |
: Bye, Dan!
|
9:45 |
: Somehow 32/30
|
9:45 |
: it would get out twice in Yankee Stadium
|
9:45 |
: Times like these that I love that my feed is a minute behind
|
9:46 |
: Right there with you, dude.
|
9:46 |
: The Schwarber.I watched for the Red Sox in 2021 was a great hitter, not just a TTO guy. I was surprised by his microscopic average this year and immense number of K’s
|
9:46 |
: He’s been hurt a lot this year. I think he’s an excellent hitter, more than just a one-dimensional guy
|
9:47 |
: Dugout interviews are a waste of time. Could Schwarber be more boring?
|
9:47 |
: Yeah, I don’t think they’re a great idea in the playoffs
|
9:48 |
: I generally love letting players talk more, and getting their faces on camera more often, but in the playoffs everyone is too locked in
|
9:48 |
: If the dugout interviews brought real insights, having them right there and right after the fact would be amazing. But they don’t.
|
9:50 |
: Castellanos’s catch is going to be like 50% catch probability
|
9:51 |
: But he made that look hard
|
9:51 |
: my guess is 70% after watching the replay
|
9:51 |
: I just… I’d mute the sound if I didn’t have to do this chat
|
9:51 |
: This sucks
|
9:52 |
: Wheeler is a really bad match up.for a team that likes to work the count.
|
9:52 |
: Yeah also a bad matchup for teams that like scoring runs
|
9:52 |
: He’s really good and also really aggressive
|
9:54 |
: In case anybody’s curious, Schwarber’s home run is tied for the 23rd hardest hit ball in the statcast era. Stanton and Judge have 20 of the top 22.
|
9:54 |
: how are MLB coaches compensated in the playoffs? Do they get a cut of the playoff revenue similar to players? I recognize head coaches would probably coach in the playoffs for free as winning impacts their next contract , but I’m thinking of the trainers, bench coaches, etc…
|
9:54 |
: I have no idea! But I’m going to try to find out now.
|
9:56 |
: What is the split of starter versus reliever innings so far this playoffs? It feels like there have been more dominant and long outings by starters this year. In the last few years relievers have pitched an increasing higher and higher proportion of innings.
|
9:56 |
: This sounds like a thing I should write about, and so I will, but finding playoff stats is super annoying
|
9:57 |
: Gotta scrape them, basically
|
9:59 |
: Hey Davy, who are the other 2 batted balls in the top 22?
|
9:59 |
: Oneil Cruz and….
|
9:59 |
: Gary Sanchez.
|
10:00 |
: Wow!
|
10:00 |
: I am thinking back to my earlier days of fandom and the thought that Wheeler would be lifted before a literal bomb went off was unthinkable.
|
10:00 |
: It’s kind of feeling that way tonight
|
10:00 |
: These two starters both have that ‘wow they’ll be out there for a while’ look
|
10:01 |
: Wheeler has that in common with several great Phillies pitchers of the past. Robin Roberts, Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee were all very different in many ways, but they all pounded the strike zone.
|
10:01 |
: Wheeler at his best is Halladay-esque, only hitting 100
|
10:02 |
: The difference in body type of every other hitter to ever hit one 120+ mph compared to Schwarber is stark. he looks strong and all but damn.
|
10:03 |
: I’d say less about body type and more about straight-up height allowing for leverage, but you’re right, Schwarber’s 6’0″.
|
10:02 |
: Odds on a double complete game tonight?
|
10:02 |
: 0.09%
|
10:05 |
: Ben, just make up the numbers. If no one notices, then you’ll have an article. If someone corrects you, then they’ll have done the research for you. Win-win!
|
10:05 |
: Iiiiiinteresting plan haha
|
10:05 |
: This is late, but I don’t think Cabrera being a league-average hitter while playing every position means that the Yankees made a mistake not having him in the majors all year. Decisions are made based on probabilities. I also don’t think the Yankees would have cut Aaron Hicks before the season given that his performance would be highly unpredictable coming off injury.
|
10:05 |
: i wouldn’t call it a mistake, but they’d definitely take cabrera if they had a do over
|
10:05 |
: Oh yeah, I’m saying that if they knew the future they’d do it
|
10:06 |
: I like their decision making ex ante
|
10:06 |
: Ben, you might have to correct for the 16 inning and 18 inning games in your starter/reliever innings story.
|
10:06 |
: Yep! Gonna do starter IP/(GS*9)
|
10:06 |
: How much of an outlier is Scwarber on a plot of max EV vs height?
|
10:06 |
: I love this question. I will dig into it.
|
10:07 |
: The strike zone is….. wild right now
|
10:07 |
: I’d write an article on whether batters successfully checking swings gets them more borderline calls if there were any way to get data
|
10:07 |
: I maintain that it does
|
10:08 |
: When you start to swing and stop, the ump is looking at that, and it’s realllly hard to figure out where the zone borders are when you’re also watching a bat
|
10:09 |
: I am all for a sensor about 8 inches in front of the plate to try to get some uniformity on checked swings.
|
10:09 |
: I absolutely think checking swings causes more ball calls that should be strikes. The bat blocks the umpire’s view a bit and checking your swing is also implicitly telling the umpire that you think it’s a ball.
|
10:10 |
: I got real worried they were about to mess up the count on Machado there
|
10:10 |
: as someone who was at game 5 of the NLDS last year, hmm
|
10:10 |
: Was that a foul ball?
|
10:10 |
: I thought it was
|
10:10 |
: The ump 100% called “foul” IMO
|
10:11 |
: Bell’s ball will be a hit next year
|
10:11 |
: Would that be a hit next year or will teams play 4 1/2 man infields?
|
10:11 | : Mike Petriello begs to differ: |
10:12 |
: I strongly disagree with Mike on these
|
10:12 |
: I’d get rid of the RF before the LF
|
10:12 |
: I was kind of thinking the same thing.
|
10:12 |
: But I respect his commitment to the bit.
|
10:12 | : i am all for the 4.5 man infield |
10:12 |
: Hitters have clear oppo tendencies on balls in the air, and plenty of their pulled air balls are homers anyway
|
10:13 |
: What does it even mean to “pitch to contact”? Don’t even the supposed pitch to contact guys prefer it when hitters swing and miss?
|
10:13 |
: yes, it’s a dumb buzzword used by boomer broadcasters who like it when pitchers get good babip luck
|
10:13 |
: It’s a real thing though
|
10:13 |
: I think it’s overused
|
10:13 |
: But like, cutters and sweepers induce weaker contact
|
10:13 |
: you’d PREFER a swing and miss
|
10:13 |
: yeah, we know pitchers do have a degree of control over the quality of contact they allow, but the magnitude of it is significantly overstated
|
10:15 |
: Good way of putting it. It’s both an announcer trope and slightly true.
|
10:14 |
: The idea of pulling the RF in intrigues me.
|
10:14 |
: but there are pitch types that induce weaker contact than other pitch types. Your sinker/sweeper type should run lower wOBACON than four-seam curve types
|
10:15 |
: yeah i agree – sweepers to same handed hitters get better results on contact than fastballs, but that’s definitley not what the broadcasters are talking about when they say “he’s pitching to contact”
|
10:16 |
: Do east/west pitch types induce weaker contact even against hitters who have the platoon advantage? I know they tend to have bigger splits
|
10:16 | : They sure don’t. You’re exactly right here. I looked into the sweeping slider part of it earlier this year: |
10:17 |
: Framber Valdez would like to talk about pitching to contact
|
10:17 |
: (but he’s obviously an outlier)
|
10:17 |
: Haha I was gonna say, yeah. We’d all like to be Framber
|
10:17 |
: Would you guys pull Wheeler now if you’re Rob Thomson?
|
10:17 |
: I would send Wheeler back out for the 8th.
|
10:18 |
: I would send him back out
|
10:18 |
: if they let him face the meat of the order for the third time then why not let him face the bottom
|
10:18 |
: Yeah
|
10:18 |
: He was losing velo to be fair
|
10:19 |
: You know…. I kinda get it the more I look at it
|
10:19 |
: Highly doubt even analytics calls for him to be pulled here, but they’re going to blame analytics when they pull him.
|
10:19 |
: every decision that ends up not working out gets blamed on analytics by a portion of the crowd
|
10:19 |
: I don’t think I would still
|
10:19 |
: but his stuff was not the same
|
10:19 |
: in that last inning
|
10:20 |
: I am about to have a fit. Wheeler has thrown 83 bleeping pitches. Great pitchers don’t only use shear velocity to get hitters out
|
10:20 |
: His movement was down too
|
10:20 |
: I mean I’d still have him in there anyway
|
10:20 |
: I don’t love the Philly bullpen at all and Wheeler locates really well
|
10:20 |
: yeah he was still locating well, every fb besides the one to bell was up
|
10:21 |
: I have to say, Wheeler didn’t fight that one too much
|
10:22 |
would you pull Wheeler here?
yes (27.2% | 15 votes)
no (72.7% | 40 votes)
Total Votes: 55
|
10:22 |
: We need a poll on pulling Wheeler
|
10:22 |
: I voted no
|
10:24 |
: Suddenly I change gears and hope the Phillies blow the game. My voodoo doll succeeded in breaking up Snell’s game in 2020 and it is about to be put back in action here. I just put a needle in Seranthony’s arm.
|
10:25 |
: In a winner take all game should the first reliever out of the pen be your best reliever? (Assuming no unique platoon matchups)
|
10:25 |
: Depends on the situation where the reliever comes in. Two out no one on? no. Bases loaded, reliever comfortable coming in mid-inning? Yes.
|
10:25 |
: It’s just nice to know that if the game gets exciting that there’s going to be a discourse about a managerial decision online
|
10:26 |
: Ah, October baseball
|
10:26 |
: I thought Bohm did a really clever thing there, maybe just an automatic good baseball player thing
|
10:27 |
: He stepped on third very purposefully, right on the center, so he knew where it was
|
10:27 |
: Boone used Clay Holmes in the 8th to deal with the 2-3-4 hitters rather than wait for the 9th, I wonder if this was a conscious decision or using him for the 8th was always the plan and it just worked out to be that way.
|
10:27 |
: I’m pretty sure that was on purpose
|
10:27 |
: It let him use Peralta for lefties too
|
10:28 |
: Why is Dominguez not being saved to face the top of the order next inning?
|
10:28 |
: Maybe he’s going two!
|
10:28 |
: Peralta not only pitched 5 games, but faced and retired Naylor in all 5. That’s a pretty absurd fact.
|
10:28 |
: Didn’t even once rock the baby, though
|
10:28 |
: letting naylor hit against a lefty in a playoff series is criminal
|
10:28 |
: Boone has been talking about roles in which batters pitchers would face
|
10:30 |
: Is Alvarado better for the top of the lineup because he’s a lefty, or is Profar better from the right side?
|
10:30 |
: They bump Profar down the lineup against lefties, in fact
|
10:30 |
: So that makes a lot of sense
|
10:32 |
: Rob Thomson putting on a clinic once again…
|
10:32 |
sure taking Wheeler out was risky but you have to remember that every single MLB reliever now has stuff that would’ve had them burned at the stake for witchcraft 60 years ago.
|
10:32 |
: I mean Luis Garcia is a great demonstration of this
|
10:32 |
: 101 with crazy movement wth
|
10:32 |
: and no one has heard of him
|
10:33 |
: I think the Yankees have been trying to transition to the Rays bullpen model for a while. Use your best relievers against the best hitters. Loaisiga is the best (right now) and almost always faces the heart of the order. Once he was used Holmes was the next best available. And that’s the way it should be, IMO.
|
10:33 |
: put your players in favorable situations
|
10:33 |
: I decided they should nerf pitchers when I heard the phrase “Kaleb Ort touches 100”
|
10:33 |
: we’ve all had to have heard of at least one of the Luis Garcias
|
10:34 |
: they should definitely nerf pitching in the next patch
|
10:34 |
: maybe buff steals and singles
|
10:34 |
: Are all Luis Garcia’s 6’3 and 240? I thought I just watched this guy for the Astros.
|
10:34 |
: This one doesn’t dance before pitching
|
10:35 |
: I’m not bitter that the Cardinals inexplicably didn’t bring Garcia back, in case you were wondering
|
10:35 |
: Oh, you weren’t?
|
10:35 |
: Two HR allowed in the playoffs already for Alvarado, just 5 Ks in 5 IP
|
10:35 |
: he also had a 1.92 fip in 50 regular season innings
|
10:36 |
: By not getting a Guardians/Astros ALCS, we’re missing out on a demonstration of competing baby-rocking styles
|
10:36 |
: I still can’t quite my head around Alvarado being a choice here. I’ve seen what he was like for his entire career before July of this year.
|
10:36 |
: My first choice is still Seranthony
|
10:36 |
: But I would’ve ridden Wheeler for 8, also
|
10:36 |
: Getting rid of Chapman probably made the versatility easier.
|
10:36 |
: Good call
|
10:37 | : leo wrote about alvarado last week! |
10:38 |
: Let’s keep a tally of Alvarado pitches in the zone
|
10:39 |
: 1/1
|
10:39 |
: 1/2
|
10:39 |
: Is there a meaningful difference between a reliever on zero and one day’s rest? Wondering how much not having either Dominguez or Alvarado fully rested tomorrow is a factor.
|
10:39 |
: Do you all know anything about @Umpscorecards on twitter? They grade out home plate umpire performances and was wondering how legit it might be. The scores for games 3 and 4 for SD/LA were heavily biased towards SD (2 of the 3 worst games in the playoffs so far), especially game 4. Yes, it’s sour grapes, but I don’t know the methodology or if it should be trusted at all.
|
10:39 |
: It’s a rulebook zone, so it misses some contextual stuff like ‘oh this was a 50/50 ball’. It’s better in big aggregates than for single games imo
|
10:39 |
: 2/3
|
10:39 |
: i’m not sure about the research that has been done on this, but i would assume dominguez wouldn’t be available tomorrow after two ups, putting in alvarado makes them both available tomorrow
|
10:40 |
: 3/4!
|
10:40 |
: I almost forgot to switch my needle to the left shoulder.
|
10:40 |
: …. 3/5
|
10:41 |
: 3/6 hoo boy
|
10:41 |
: my opinion re: ump scorecards – i don’t like the favor metrics in single games, to my knowledge there isn’t a large effect one way or the other of leverage index on mised calls – i care a lot more about the really bad missed calls, not the ones missed by half an inch that just so happened to be in a big spot
|
10:41 |
: Totally agree Kyle
|
10:41 |
: I would like it more if it cared about strike probability
|
10:41 |
: 3/7 🙁
|
10:41 |
: 4/8
|
10:42 |
: I guess I dunno why I frowned, I think this game would be more fun with a walk
|
10:42 |
: 4/9
|
10:42 |
: that’s above league average for the season!
|
10:42 |
: How far in advance do you know if there is going to be a chat? I didn’t see anything advertising it but I always check it out.
|
10:42 |
: We should do a better job advertising
|
10:42 |
: We’re planning a G1 ALCS chat tomorrow, and a G1 WS chat
|
10:43 |
: Thanks.
|
10:43 |
: But! As I look at the signup sheet no one is signed up for tomorrow
|
10:43 |
: So, I’ll ask Meg on that one
|
10:43 |
: Philly D is gonna Philly D
|
10:43 |
: omg
|
10:43 |
: “because of the shift’ FIRST WORDS OUT OF HIS MOUTH
|
10:44 |
: Ok, this is the benefit of being behind everyone. When he finally said it I laughed so hard.
|
10:44 |
: He’s not wrong though? That’s an unusual play for a SS.
|
10:44 |
: that had nothing to do with the shift, but a bad throw?
|
10:44 |
: that looked like a throwing issue on bohms end to me
|
10:45 |
: 5/11
|
10:45 |
: 6/12
|
10:45 |
: 7/13
|
10:46 |
: HUGE second out.
|
10:46 |
: His zone% was 35.2 on the season, so he’s doing great relatively speaking.
|
10:46 |
: So uh, quick programming note: leaning no on a chat tomorrow but it’d be for the AL game, and would start around first pitch
|
10:46 |
: WS chat is a definite go
|
10:46 |
: wouldn’t the padres love to still have luke voit right now
|
10:46 |
: ohhhh yeah
|
10:47 |
: 8/14
|
10:47 |
: he’s Wheeler-esque
|
10:47 |
: 8/15
|
10:47 |
: I want you gentlemen to know how much I appreciate your entertaining me, and I am sure I speak for all on the chat, with you comments, insights and general knowledge.
|
10:47 |
: It is probably a double play without the shift, but the fact that Smoltz has such a vendetta against the shift makes how quick he jumped in to say that soooo funny
|
10:47 |
: And we’d like to say thanks to all of you, these are fun and a big part of what makes FanGraphs great in the playoffs
|
10:47 |
: 8/16
|
10:47 |
: another chase!
|
10:48 |
: 8/17 final count
|
10:48 |
: pretty good!
|
10:48 |
: and some of those were balls on purpose
|
10:48 |
: I mean, Darvish pitched well
|
10:48 |
: Pitches don’t get any tougher than that one.
|
10:48 |
: Agreed – Live chats during games elevate my experience by a lot! Enjoy your LCS’s all
|
10:48 |
: Wheeler was just better
|
10:48 |
: This was just as fun as I hoped it’d be. Thank you everybody!
|
10:48 |
: thanks everyone!
|
10:48 |
: Something I expect to see a lot this series
|
10:49 |
: Thanks so much for hanging out, everyone
|
10:49 |
![]() |
10:49 |
: Hope the rest of this series is as close as tonight, but with a bit more offense
|
10:49 |
: Have a great night, all
|
10:50 |
: Good game, everybody. Good game.
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.