FanGraphs Power Rankings – 5/2/11
Welcome to the latest feature here at FanGraphs – our take on the Power Rankings that nearly every website in existence publishes, only with our own little twist.
In an effort to make this quantitative (that’s what we do around here, after all), we’re combining objective measures of 2011 performance with some subjective wisdom from our FanGraphs crowd. To this end, we’ve created a weighted system based on three factors — a WAR-based 2011 winning percentage (essentially, WAR/G shown as a winning percentage, or WAR% for short); the preseason Fan’s Standings determined from readership input ( which we’ll call FAN% for short); and the number of games each team has played. The two winning percentages are combined to create TOTAL%, on which the Power Rankings are based.
A team’s WAR% is given weighting equal to the percentage of 2011 season that the team has played. Right now, teams fall in the 15-18% range, as they have played between 26 and 29 games. As the season progresses — and we learn more about each team’s true level of talent — the WAR% will receive a greater weight with the FAN% receiving less weight. This system essentially acts as a built-in regression for current performance so that we don’t overreact to small samples of data, but it also allows for how teams have done to influence our evaluations of their abilities.
We think that our system can avoid doing crazy things like anointing the Indians the third-best team in baseball (where they score this week in WAR%), when the crowd initially thought Cleveland would be the 27th best team in the game. We’ll still acknowledge that the Indians’ performance has improved over the team’s expected performance going forward.
Our week will be Monday through Sunday, so expect each new installment on Monday afternoon. As always, we want to know what you think, so be sure to let us know in the comments.
1. New York Yankees: WAR% – .682 (2), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .596
Despite quietly getting off to a great start — thanks to some unlikely contributions — those covering the Yankees still want you to think that the sky is falling.
2. Boston: WAR% – .525 (12), FAN% – .605 (1), TOTAL% – .592
The first proof that this isn’t your grandpappy’s power rankings. Despite his hitting streak being 20 games fewer than Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez was worth just as much as the Dodgers’ right fielder this past week (0.4 WAR), which is something to keep in mind when that guy at the office who loves to talk baseball with you comments about how amazing Ethier’s streak is.
3. Philadelphia: WAR% – .616 (4), FAN% – .556 (3), TOTAL% – .566
Everyone who thought Placido Polanco would be the Phillies’ best hitter one month into the season raise your hand. Put your hand down, Mrs. Polanco.
4. Colorado: WAR% – .557 (9), FAN% – .556 (3), TOTAL% – .556
Saturday night, the BABIP Gods relented long enough to allow Chris Iannetta to slam a three-run homer and push the Rockies past the Pirates. He’ll need to keep it up, because when your manager focuses on your weaknesses instead of your strengths, you’re one slump from a demotion.
5. St. Louis: WAR% – .702 (1), FAN% – .512 (12), TOTAL% – .545
Since April 11, Lance Berkman has hit 31-for-65, with 8 homers and a 1.482 OPS. Guess which day I decided to drop him from my fantasy team?
6. Tampa Bay: WAR% – .548 (10), FAN% – .537 (5), TOTAL% – .539
Last week, Ben Zobrist compiled the same WAR (0.8) that the entire Twins, Mariners and White Sox offenses have combined for the whole season. Amazing what a freed Zorilla can do.
7. Florida: WAR% – .599 (5), FAN% – .525 (7), TOTAL% – .537
Fantasy owners breathed a sigh of relief on Sunday, when Hanley Ramirez finally homered — passing Alcides Escobar on the shortstop leaderboard. Next stop: Maicer Izturis.
8. Texas: WAR% – .548 (11), FAN% – .525 (7), TOTAL% – .529
Last week, Yorvit Torrealba was the most valuable catcher in the game (0.4 WAR), which has to make the Rangers feel pretty good. Until you realize that he was also last week’s most valuable Ranger.
9. Milwaukee: WAR% – .573 (7), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .528
Shaun Marcum is well on his way to beating his initial ZiPS projection for the season, which is welcome news in a rotation where Yovani Gallardo has been getting cuffed around and Zack Greinke has yet to throw a Major League.
10. San Francisco: WAR% – .488 (18), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .513
Madison Bumgarner’s first quality start of 2011 attracted a lot of attention in Eno’s Friday RotoGraphs chat, which should be on your to-participate in list every week (right after breathing).
11. Atlanta: WAR% – .508 (15), FAN% – .506 (14), TOTAL% – .507
Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are the latest examples that the best thing for an ailing pitcher is a shot of San Diego’s offense. Well, unless you’re Hong-Chih Kuo.
12. Cincinnati: WAR% – .566 (8), FAN% – .494 (17), TOTAL% – .506
In news that will surprise no one not named Dusty Baker, Jonny Gomes has turned back into the guy he always has been — a platoon player (at best). In his last 10 games, he is just 3-for-31. Last week, he struck out in more than 40% of his at-bats.
13. Los Angeles of Anaheim: WAR% – .577 (6), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .503
Turns out, the only player who can stop Jered Weaver is Jered Weaver.
14. New York Mets: WAR% – .421 (26), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .502
Ike Davis is a man, even though he’s not 40.
15. Chicago Cubs: WAR% – .469 (21), FAN% – .506 (14), TOTAL% – .500
Matt Garza has been brilliant this season, and last week was no exception. He racked up 0.7 WAR, which made him the co-most valuable pitcher of the week, along with Ian Kennedy. Still, Cubs fans have to be upset that they missed out on the Legend of Sam Fuld.
16. Minnesota: WAR% – .310 (30), FAN% – .537 (5), TOTAL% – .499
The Twins have had such a rough go of things that it seems almost cruel to label Jason Kubel’s early success against southpaws a small-sample-sized fluke. Even though that’s probably what it is.
17. Detroit: WAR% – .434 (23), FAN% – .512 (12), TOTAL% – .499
Yes, Max Scherzer is 4-0, which is peachy keen and all, but this was his second straight April with a FIP in the “completely unacceptable” range. And last year, Scherzer’s May was worse than his April.
18. Toronto: WAR% – .516 (13), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .493
While the demotion of Travis Snider shows that even the Blue Jays aren’t immune to overreaction, Jose Bautista and his continued Barry Bonds imitation (.350/.594/.800, 11 walks to 1 strike out last week), will cure a lot of problems.
19. San Diego: WAR% – .466 (22), FAN% – .494 (17), TOTAL% – .489
Brad Hawpe has strung together hits in five straight games, and perhaps has popped a few nails off his coffin in the process.
20. Cleveland: WAR% – .673 (3), FAN% – .451 (27), TOTAL% – .488
Just when you thought the Indians couldn’t get any hotter, Shin-Soo Choo decided to do a week-long Jack Hannahan impression. Wait, what?
21. Los Angeles Dodgers: WAR% – .470 (20), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .485
Hiroki Kuroda — tied for the 14th most valuable pitcher last week — keeps quietly producing for the Dodgers. In other words, he’s the complete opposite of his team’s owner.
22. Oakland: WAR% – .495 (17), FAN% – .481 (23), TOTAL% – .484
Conor Jackson started in Oakland’s last five games and had himself a nice week in the process. With a 0.8 WAR and a .371 wOBA this season, Jackson is showing flashes of his 2008 self. If Jackson’s run continues, the A’s might have to find a permanent lineup spot for him.
23. Baltimore: WAR% – .384 (29), FAN% – .500 (16), TOTAL% – .481
After watching President Obama’s press conference last night, I wondered: “How is Luke Scott celebrating?” Scott tied for the fifth-best hitter WAR last week at 0.6.
24. Chicago White Sox: WAR% – .418 (27), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .475
Philip Humber is starting to inspire some “remember that guy?” stories with his hot start. Unfortunately, if his .212 BABIP regresses to the mean, it might not be long before he is forgotten again.
25. Arizona: WAR% – .506 (16), FAN% – .463 (25), TOTAL% – .470
Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson win this week’s most valuable teammates award. Unfortunately, the D-backs only managed to win one game that the duo didn’t start last week.
26. Seattle: WAR% – .432 (24), FAN% – .469 (24), TOTAL% – .463
While rookie pitchers can be fickle, Michael Pineda’s updated FIP projection of 3.29 is a full ¾ of a run lower than his preseason projection of 4.05.
27. Washington: WAR% – .484 (19), FAN% – .457 (26), TOTAL% – .461
After a 0.5 WAR week and 1.1 WAR start to the season, the question we’re asking is, “Has Jason Marquis managed to pull himself completely from his grave, or is part of him still subterranean?”
28. Kansas City: WAR% – .516 (14), FAN% – .420 (29), TOTAL% – .436
Jeff Francoeur continued his annual April game of throwing-it-in-statheads faces. The pill would be more bitter going down, however, if we didn’t know how the story would end.
29. Pittsburgh: WAR% – .423 (25), FAN% – .438 (28), TOTAL% – .436
Despite being just 9-7 on the road, Pittsburgh has won four of its five road series to start the season. Last weekend, Garrett Jones and Andrew McCutchen did plenty of damage in Colorado, going 10-for-25 combined, with a double and three homers.
30. Houston: WAR% – .405 (28), FAN% – .370 (30), TOTAL% – .376
Congratulations to Brett Wallace, the inaugural FanGraphs Power Rankings BABIP’er of the week. Wallace’s .786 BABIP was more than 200 points higher than his closest competitor.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Thanks for taking the time to put this together.
Nice job, I enjoyed it. Mrs. Polanco did too, I’m sure.
WHY DO YOU HATE MY TEAM?!?!?!?!111!?!1/oNE
No offense, but are you fucking kidding me? Indians at 20?!?! They already have a 10 game lead on the 16th place Twins and 7.5 game lead on the 17th place Tigers. Granted I realize that future expections are at play here, but give the Tribe at least a measure of respect.
You didn’t read the methodology did you?
Mr. The Rhino, please see Mr. Cistulli’s post above, preemptively making fun of you.
Did Carson just prove preconception?
I guess in some measure of support for the The Rhino, I like the idea of these rankings, but the methodology is very flawed. I like balancing previous success with realistic future expectations, but FAN% is a very poor tool for these purposes. In the case of the Twins, which The Rhino was quick to observe as overrated, the .537 FAN% reflects a team that doesn’t even exist on the feild anymore. The Astros FAN% at .370 (.050 lower than any other team in the feild) is absurd, and they will be #30 by this methodology for the entire season. A better system would use ZiPS(R)%, Marcel%, Tango% to balance FAN% (if not completely replace it).
I agree that the FAN% should be relegated to a smaller factor. What it’s doing to Cleveland will look laughable later in the season by this method, and seems like gross overcompensation.
Pointing to an ESPN-NY article as signs that “those that cover the team think the sky is falling” is ridiculous. Everyone that writes for ESPN-NY is decidedly and unabashedly anti-yankee. It’s very obvious.
It’s gotta be that oft-whined-about “West Coast bias!”
… or the fact that ESPN is decidedly pro-red sox…
the onion needs to release a new t-shirt that says “the news media entity in question is hopelessly biased against my hometown sports team.”
Great stuff.
The Indians at 20 threw me off too until I read the methodology. That said, the FANS % is pretty worthless at this point, isn’t it? The Tribe are clearly better than anyone anticipated for a few reasons that don’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
At this early in the season, I think pre-season projections are a lot better predictors of what’s going to happen than W-L records are.
We’re only like 15% of the way into the season.
The question about the fan rankings though has to be this: Were they made arbitrarily and based mostly on last year’s records? I’m not saying the Tribe are going to the post-season, but isn’t it possible that LaPorta is starting to come through? That Sizemore and Hafner finally feel more like their old selves? That Masterson has figured out how to deal with lefties more effectively? Sure, guys like Hannahan aren’t likely to continue at their present pace, but I think that too many people were unnecessarily down on the Indians for trading star players for prospects that really needed to be allowed the opportunity to learn at the MLB level and develop, something that people seemed to have little patience for.
Toss in top prospects coming up like Phelps, Chisenhall, Kipnis, White, and the wealth of depth at AAA Columbus and the Indians may very well have a shot at the division, especially given the Twins, ChiSox and Tigers recent lack of performance. I like the idea of splitting the fan ranks evenly with zips-ros, marcel, and oliver projections (albeit none of them were very high on the Indians either).
Neat rankings, do you guys have a formula for the WAR%/FAN% Ratio or are you just using judgment? I’d be curious to see what you guys came up with for that.
Interesting to see the disparity between reality and perception for the Royals.
Using pre-season Fan projections for current team power rankings is absurd.
So is basing power rankings off of 25 games.
What about after 100 games? 161 games? Still think Fan opinion should count then?
in reply to nik:
“As the season progresses — and we learn more about each team’s true level of talent — the WAR% will receive a greater weight with the FAN% receiving less weight.”
please read the article.
That’s exactly why Power Rankings are usually unreadable at this point, they don’t seem to do what they’re supposed to do, tell a story beyond the W-L standings, instead they just mimic a small sampling of games. Swydan’s work is much more interesting than these.
Why? You shouldn’t really change your expectations based off of 25 or so games.
Say, you originally expected the Red Sox to win 100 games (.617). But they’ve gone 12-15. Then you should expect them to go about 83-52 (.615) going forward. That’d add up to 95 wins.
There’s just as much talent as there was on that team on opening day. Opposite goes for the Royals.
I love the way this sets up this week’s big Pirates – Astros series as a head to head clash for 29th place.
Astros can sweep the Pirates and still be #30. They’re giving up .068% in the FAN% which next week will still count three times as much as as the WAR% does. That means the Astros need to be >.200 better in WAR% this time next week to claim #29. Not gonna happen.
I really like this idea overall, but I agree with others that Fan% is probably not the best way to balance out WAR%. Perhaps Zips (ROS) or some equivalent would be preferable.
I think FAN percentage is great for what this is.
“Saturday night, the BABIP Gods relented long enough to allow Chris Iannetta to slam a three-run homer and push the Rockies past the Pirates.”
Since when did the BABIP Gods preside over home runs? That’s the realm of the HR/FB Gods, isn’t it? 😉
Doh! Good catch, thank you.
I like the power rankings and have no problem with using the fans expectations of the teams.
I’m sorry I didn’t maintain the status quo of complaining about something.
Nice to see the Yankees on top!
I bet your favorite band is the Beatles and you think Citizen Kane is the greatest movie ever made.
And you don’t?
I’m partial to Shawshank Redemption. And the Beatles are the greatest band in modern music.
I think the best way to do this would be to use a sliding scale system. a 50/50 split between WAR-based performance metrics and pre-season opinion just does not work. A simple way to fix it would be to adjust the ratios as the season goes on. After game 1, it should be closer to 98% fan projections, 2% performance. After game 161, it should be pretty much the reverse. What the exact formula is, I dont know, but I know that the 50/50 split will not work, especially as we get further into the season.
PS, some credit should also be given for overall record and especially the team’s performance during the most recent time period. These current rankings wont have much credibility if in the middle of August a team that has accumulated a bunch of WAR but then gets hit by some major injuries shouldn’t be floating near the top of the rankings for weeks on end.
You didn’t actually read the introduction, did you?
“A team’s WAR% is given weighting equal to the percentage of 2011 season that the team has played. Right now, teams fall in the 15-18% range, as they have played between 26 and 29 games. As the season progresses — and we learn more about each team’s true level of talent — the WAR% will receive a greater weight with the FAN% receiving less weight. “
Surprised to see Minnesota so high up the rankings.
Ethier’s streak is still amazing, WAR aside.
Nah, not really.
it’s still a feat
There have been something like eight 30-game streaks since 2000, including one by Willy Taveras, whose presence on any list of ‘offensive greatness’ calls into question the second word in that label.
The BABIP gods reach extends only as far as the outfield fence. Iannetta clearly had enough of playing their game.
Maybe you should include ALL MLB teams next time, you know, like the Giants.
Um, check again?
To help alleviate some of the concerns people have about the weighting… A square root rule could be used to assign the weighting, or credibility, of the games already played. For example a team who has played 26 games would receive 40% from WAR (=sqrt(26/162)) and 60% from preseason fan rankings. This accelerates the weight given to performance in the season without going bonkers. Love the idea of this. I actually like the current weighting structure more, just trying to throw out some alternatives to help others in the comment section who want the Indians higher.
I just wanted to say Swaydens work here’s been really great and I’m glad to see him taking on a regular feature like this. Thanks for getting us writers like this FGraphs.
! Swydan
excuse me for the typo
I think the fan opinion (especially preseason fan opinion) should be removed and replaced with a more objective talent measure. Perhaps a composite projection of WAR from all starting players on the roster would help (using any of the various projection systems). It seems like the fan opinion element is included with the intent of factoring in talent, but there are better ways to measure that.
I’m fine with using FAN% and WAR%. And the weighting you use has the right idea. But I think you could make it a little bit better. Cleveland’s hot start has to make you think they’re actually a better team than expected, not just that their win total will be higher than expected based on the wins already on the board. Rany Jazayerli did some research on this back in 2003. I’d suggest using his findings to tweak the formula. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1818)
Honestly this is horrible for a SABR site. Fan ratings? Ugh are you kidding me. Look at Beyond the Box Score for a site that using stats for a power ranking.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/1/2147694/april-2011-bsrized-standings
The weirdest one to me is the White Sox. I’m surprised there was so much hate for them from the fans. With their pitching and the addition of Dunn I thought they’d be pretty decent, certainly better than the Tigers and probably better than the Twins, I guess the fans knew something I did not.
I don’t really have a problem with the Indians at 20th, it is early after all, and the only team above them that I’d say is clearly worse than them is the current Twins. The Twins with Mauer, Morneau and a functioning Liriano are a good team, without they are a bad team. It would be nice if there way a way to account for major injuries/whatever’s wrong with Liriano in the rankings, because that’s what’s driving the difference between preseason ranking and current performance in a lot of cases.
You must always remember the Juan Pierre factor – especially if he is being handed a leadoff spot.
That’s probably what held the Sox back…
The assumption that the fan ratings are some accurate barometer of true talent doesn’t really hold up. I like the thought, but that undermines the whole rankings.
I think this is a really really good piece. I like the methodology. Phasing in the current season and phasing out the preseason in proportion to games played is simple but very strong. The only quibble I can see is whether the FAN% is the best preseason metric to be using, but glancing at the results nothing seems out of whack so it seems fine to me. Replacing it with a preseason projection from another source probably wouldn’t change things too much.
I enjoyed the links too. Good work.
Yep – this is essentially true. The Fan’s Standings have a very high correlation to the ZIPS Standings, with most teams within a few wins in either direction. The biggest differences are teams like the White Sox (where the fans had 79 wins but ZIPS had 86) and the Marlins (fans had 85 wins, ZIPS 78), and in both cases, the fans are looking more likely to be right so far.
Replacing the Fan’s Standings with any of the other projection systems wouldn’t make any substantial difference.
Since Baltimore has a higher WAR than Seattle or the White Sox and has played fewer games, how do they have a lower WAR percentage?
Larry, you also need to account for WAR for pitchers, which in this case is what sinks Baltimore.
Thanks. I knew I was missing something.
I agree that I like the theory here, but that Fan % probably isn’t the best choice. Can’t we just use some sort of preseason Zips/pecota/WAR #s instead? Then do something like:
((Current WP * Games played) + (Preseason projected WP * Games remaining))/162
Run differential could also play a part, thus giving 2 parts actual performance, 1 part Fan/Projections.
What has happened on the field is more important than what was “supposed” to happen … even in April.
Sure, you could implement some form of pythag integrated as well. Just something less subjective than a fan poll (even if it is a sophisticated one).
Team WAR and run differential should correlate pretty well over long enough time spans. You can have one game where a team manages to strand 17 baserunners and lose despite putting up a decent offensive WAR but that’s not going to happen much.
Like it. I would agree that a projection system might be better than Fan’s, if only so people don’t see it as subjective.
Maybe it’s my beer talking, but I think this is bloody brilliant.
Great work.
OT: Has anyone ever done any work on measuring player’s fantasy contributions on a week-to-week volatility basis? I feel like almost every year Berkman has these stretches of a month where he’s the best player in the world and then hits like crap for a different month. Knowing which guys are less volatile (like Holliday maybe) would be an advantage in H2H leagues.
No power ranking really makes that much sense. I saw a ranking recently that had the M’s at 10, which makes absolutely no sense. (26 is probably also way too low – I’d split the difference, and then add one or two to counter my fannish instincts.)
I disagree with using FAN%. People will naturally have bias towards their team, which obscures the statistic towards large market teams.
This is very easy to account for, and we do. Again, there’s no real difference between using the Fan’s Standings and something like ZIPS.
Thank you for clarifying that for me. 🙂
Rankings are for pure entertainment, so it doesn’t bother me if Team A is lower/higher than I think it should be or the methodology is suspect. The write-ups are hilarious and informative, so good job Swydan!
These rankings are a joke. For a site such as Fangraphs to use Fans Opinion as a data point is ridiculous; no wonder the Yank-me’s and Red Sox are #1 and 2, maybe because they have the highest fan opinion? You’re better than this. And yes I am an Indians fan and there’s no way the Tigers are better than them after being swept by the Indians.
Do you guys even watch the games? The Tigers, Twins, and Padres have all been atrocious while the Indians have been killing everyone (Best run differential and top 3 in WAR, hurr hurrr they must be the 20th best team durrrr).
It’s articles like this that give stat-geeks a bad name when obviously you haven’t even watched any of the games and are basing your opinion solely on a valuable piece of info (WAR) and then COMPLETELY discounting it by weighing Fan Opinion (whatever the hell that is) much greater in the calculation.
Guess what – if we ran it with ZIPS replacing the Fan’s Standings, the Indians would fare worse.
Guess what, the season has started. How bout you do away with the pre-season projection BS and focus on, I don’t know, the actual games being played? Best record in the league. #1 in run differential. #3 in WAR.
But you guys are right. They’re worse than the Padres and the Twins whose combined winning percentage is .357.
Also, no mention of the fact that the Indians went from having the 3rd worst defense last year to the best this year based on UZR/150. Replacing Jhonny Peralta and Luis Valbuena (2 of the worst fielders in the history of baseball) with Hannahan and Orlando Cabrera will do that for you.
But don’t let informative stats like that get in the way of Fan opinion %. Wouldn’t want to lose that valuable information on people GUESSING which team is better in the preseason.
If you really don’t understand the need to regress a month’s worth of data, I don’t know what to tell you.
I wonder how many weeks of 0.673 baseball the Indians would have to play to crack the top 2 or 3 in the list?
This is a reply to the Dave Cameron post at 5:07 PM that is above but didn’t have a reply tag at the bottom of his post.
If you don’t understand why people’s guesses on Win-Loss record, especially guesses made before the season started where no analysis can be done, have no statistical relevance, I don’t know what to tell you. Who cares if 50,000 nobodies think the Yankees are going to win 100 games and the Indians are going to win 60? Doesn’t provide one bit of information.
You’re a statistical analysis website and you’re basing this ranking (statistic) on people’s opinions. That fly’s in the face of everything that statistical analysis is; how do you not see the insanity in that?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
The overall principle of wisdom of crowds is fine. However, what I’d really like to know is what the correlation is. I’d feel pretty strongly that different fields would produce different levels of correlation, and even within baseball I imagine the correlation would vary depending on what is asked to be predicted. Do we have enough data to say that wisdom of the crowds is going to provide better correlation than say ZIPS or pecota or some such? If so, go for it. If not, and ZIPS are readily available, it’d make sense to use those since we can run the #s for correlation, until we get evidence that suggests that wisdom of the crowds is in fact as good or better than ZIPS (or CHONE, or Marcel, whatever).
ZIPS and the Fan’s Standings are almost exactly the same.
No analysis can be done before the season starts? Does that mean that the players’ histories tell us nothing about their abilities and their likely performance in the upcoming season? You should watch more games and see if you notice any trends from one season to the next. Please do report back on what you find.
Very cool idea for rankings, certainly preferable to the standard power ranking, wherein they list the teams in order of records, with few differences.
Any thought about some kind of nonlinear function for the weights? I feel like a linear function underweights the WAR% – for example, I feel like halfway through the year, WAR% should be something closer to ~75% than 50%.
Jeff Francouer is white and he gives a shit. As any NBA fan can attest, that combo plays well in middle America.