FanGraphs Power Rankings – 6/13/11
This week saw the most movement to date, as all but eight teams slid up or down the rankings. There was still no movement at the top or the bottom, but while teams on the bottom are threatening to uncongeal, the Red Sox and Yankees are moving further and further from the pack. The two have been first or second in each iteration of the Power Rankings (you can see the first week, and methodology here), but where in previous versions the margins were narrow due to each team’s slow start, they have widened considerably as they have picked up the pace. Last week, Boston’s position players were more valuable as a unit than anyone else’s entire team. These differences are showing up in the rankings. The difference between second and third has expanded from 17-18 percentage points, to the 30-point range, to 40 points last week and 51 points this week. In third once again, the Phillies are sort of floating by themselves in what we’ll call tier 1A. Below Philly, we have roughly four more tiers of teams, with lines drawn in faint pencil after the Rays, White Sox and Padres. But just as in the past few weeks, teams are jumping a lot from week to week in both WAR% and rank, be it positively (Atlanta, Baltimore) or negatively (Toronto, Chicago Cubs), and we will likely see those lines redrawn each week for the forseeable future.
1. Boston: Last week – 1, WAR% – .639 (2), FAN% – .605 (1), TOTAL% – .619
Last week, I noted that the Red Sox were pretty much running on all cylinders. They haven’t lost since, putting together a perfect week that included their second sweep in the Bronx, and are now most definitely running on all cylinders.
2. New York Yankees: Last week – 2, WAR% – .652 (1), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .608
This week’s BABIP’er of the Week goes to Jorge Posada, who perhaps not a moment too soon, clocked in at .647 for the week.
3. Philadelphia: Last week – 4, WAR% – .560 (t-8), FAN% – .556 (3), TOTAL% – .557
Cole Hamels is getting far more ground balls on three of his pitches than he did last year, and as a result he has put himself in the discussion as one of the best lefties in the National League. Over the past 30 days, he was not just one of the top lefties, but rather the best pitcher in baseball overall.
4. St. Louis: Last week – 3, WAR% – .591 (3), FAN% – .512 (12), TOTAL% – .545
Cardinals’ starters haven’t been as good lately, and talk about them struggling as a unit may surface after they took the loss in all three games this past weekend, but with every starter except Jake Westbrook compiling an xFIP between 3.17 and 3.73 over the past 30 days, it may be a little early to sound the doomsday whistle.
5. Milwaukee: Last week – 7, WAR% – .579 (4), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .543
Prince Fielder seems to be awesome every other year, and he is on track for that this year, as his 3.2 WAR is already within 0.2 of his 2010 total. He is succeeding this year in an un-Fielder-like way, which may make him more attractive to strikeout-averse teams this offseason.
6. Texas: Last week – 5, WAR% – .563 (t-6), FAN% – .525 (7), TOTAL% – .541
The Rangers have kept up their good baserunning ways, as their 10.3 runs of Bsr are nearly four runs higher than the next best team this season.
7. Colorado: Last week – 6, WAR% – .518 (17), FAN% – .556 (3), TOTAL% – .540
Can someone do me a favor and let me know when they figure out if Ubaldo Jimenez is still good or not?
8. Tampa Bay: Last week – 8, WAR% – .541 (10), FAN% – .537 (5), TOTAL% – .539
While Wade Davis’ season has definitely taken a turn for the worse since the end of April, optimists could paint his velocity increase as a harbinger of good things to come.
9. Atlanta: Last week – 12, WAR% – .560 (t-8), FAN% – .506 (14), TOTAL% – .528
A sweep of the Marlins, and then of the lowly Astros, has vaulted the Braves ahead of the Fish in the rankings for the first time this season. Tommy Hanson striking out 20 batters and allowing just one run in 13 innings this past week certainly helped the cause a great deal.
10. Florida: Last week – 9, WAR% – .526 (15), FAN% – .525 (7), TOTAL% – .525
Perhaps Omar Infante has taken the hint, as he has reached base in seven of his 19 plate appearances since the Marlins signed Jose Lopez. Or then again, maybe it’s just 19 plate appearances…
11. San Francisco: Last week – 10, WAR% – .531 (13), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .524
The Giants haven’t started him yet, but when they do, the newly signed 31-year-old-going-on-41-year-old Bill Hall and 37-year-old Miguel Tejada may just form the most craptastic double play combo for a contender in Major League history (if you have a better — or rather worse — combo, let me know in the comments!).
12. Detroit: Last week – 14, WAR% – .535 (12), FAN% – .512 (12), TOTAL% – .521
This just in: Brennan Boesch likes hitting during June.
13. Los Angeles of Anaheim: Last week – 11, WAR% – .563 (t-6), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .519
Though his catcher and manager didn’t see it, Jordan Walden thought he found little things that were wrong with his delivery when he went awry in May. It could have just as easily have been BABIP-fueled regression however, as Walden’s BABIP went from .188 in April to .410 in May. You say poe-tay-to, I say poe-tat-o.
14. Cincinnati: Last week – 13, WAR% – .539 (11), FAN% – .494 (17), TOTAL% – .513
Mike Leake may or may not be the best Reds’ starter, but he has pitched like it so far. He leads all Reds pitchers in WAR, and has thrown two of his three best outings of the season by WPA since his recall on May 27.
15. Arizona: Last week – 16, WAR% – .567 (5), FAN% – .463 (25), TOTAL% – .5055
Four weeks ago, the D-backs ranked 25th in the rankings, and it looked as if they were getting worse. Since, they have climbed each week, rising ten spots total. That may continue now that Stephen Drew, after hitting a bump in the road in May when the resurgence started, has resumed his fantastic play.
16. Chicago White Sox: Last week – 17, WAR% – .530 (14), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .5052
Though the White Sox have had to deal with another injury-plagued season from Jake Peavy, they have still featured an awesome rotation. Their rotation WAR is currently second-highest in the game, and John Danks has been their fifth-best starter. With him now heating up, White Sox foes could have even fewer opportunities to score.
17. New York Mets: Last week – 18, WAR% – .464 (21), FAN% – .519 (9), TOTAL% – .497
Just when you thought all hope was lost for the Mets rotation, Dillon Gee turned into David Cone. He has allowed just eight runs in his last 35 2/3 innings, piling up five straight wins in the process. At 7-0, he’s just the second rookie since 2000 to have a season-opening winning streak of seven or more games (the other being Jered Weaver in 2006), which would be a lot more awesome if wins were in any way meaningful.
18. Toronto: Last week – 15, WAR% – .505 (18), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .495
Jose Bautista is mired in a horrible slump. Over the past 30 days, he has only been the tenth-most valuable player in baseball. What a slacker.
19. Minnesota: Last week – 20, WAR% – .410 (29), FAN% – .537 (5), TOTAL% – .486
The Twinkies are really coming on as of late, winning nine of their last 11 games, and scoring five or more runs in eight of them. And if that wasn’t enough good news, Mr. Cistulli has now unequivocally proven that they have the most underrated player in baseball.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers: Last week – 21, WAR% – .475 (19), FAN% – .488 (19), TOTAL% – .482
Every now and then, Chad Billingsley will put up a stinker, like he did Friday in Denver. When he does, it’s important to remember that since 2008, he’s been the 15th-most valuable pitcher in the game.
21. Cleveland: Last week – 22, WAR% – .524 (16), FAN% – .451 (27), TOTAL% – .479
It’s time to start mentioning Michael Brantley on the list of elite contact hitters. His career SwStr% is a lowly 2.8%, and his 2011 mark of 2.9% is currently the third-lowest in the Majors, and would be in the top 10 across the last three seasons if he maintains it.
22. Baltimore: Last week – 25, WAR% – .440 (26), FAN% – .500 (16), TOTAL% – .476
Though he has missed a bunch of time this season, J.J. Hardy has played well when in the lineup, with an offensive surge that makes his wRC+ the fourth-highest among shortstops (minimum 100 plate appearances) in 2011.
23. Chicago Cubs: Last week – 19, WAR% – .428 (28), FAN% – .506 (14), TOTAL% – .475
The Cubs have been the anti-D-backs. Four weeks ago, they were ranked 12th here, but have dropped every week since. Their pitching ranks 21st, their hitting is tied for 20th, their fielding is 28th and their baserunning is dead last. Other than that though, they’re doing great!
24. San Diego: Last week – 23, WAR% – .442 (25), FAN% – .494 (17), TOTAL% – .472
Someone should tell Anthony Rizzo that it’s hard to hit at PETCO Park. The rookie must not yet have noticed, as he racked up an extra-base hit in each of his first three Major League games before running into Jordan Zimmermann yesterday.
25. Oakland: Last week – 24, WAR% – .438 (27), FAN% – .481 (23), TOTAL% – .463
Call me crazy, but I don’t think changing managers is going to turn things around in Oakland. As a team, they compiled a negative WAR on both the position player and pitcher side of the ledger last week.
26. Seattle: Last week – 26, WAR% – .451 (23), FAN% – .469 (24), TOTAL% – .462
Usually you find Ichiro Suzuki near the top of leaderboards, not the bottom. But after a dreadful week that included being left out of the starting lineup for the first time since August 31, 2009, the bottom of the WAR leaderboard — at -0.2, he was tied for 18th worst position player this week — is exactly where he was.
27. Washington: Last week – 27, WAR% – .455 (22), FAN% – .457 (26), TOTAL% – .456
The Nationals have been doing a lot of things right lately, particularly when it comes to the Draft, but even with good play, Jayson Werth was going to be the elephant in the room. And his play to this point could hardly be described as “good.”
28. Pittsburgh: Last week – 28, WAR% – .450 (24), FAN% – .438 (28), TOTAL% – .443
Andrew McCutchen may have lasted until the 15th pick in the FanGraphs Franchise Player Draft, but he has been the fifth-best player in baseball this season, and it is high time to put the 24-year-old on the short list of NL MVP candidates.
29. Kansas City: Last week – 29, WAR% – .470 (20), FAN% – .420 (29), TOTAL% – .440
Michael Moustakas might not have heard any “Moose Calls” during his Major League debut, but you can bet that he will hear plenty when the Royals return home on the 21st, and for many years to come.
30. Houston: Last week – 30, WAR% – .390 (30), FAN% – .370 (30), TOTAL% – .378
With hits in 26 of 35 games since the start of May, and multiple hits in 15 of them, perhaps we dug Carlos Lee’s grave prematurely. Or maybe we didn’t, and this is really zombie Carlos Lee, out to eat everything in his path — which, coincidentally, is a trait he shares with human Carlos Lee.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
colorado is ranked way high on this. Name five players on that team that are having good years.
Why do the comment sections for these weekly rankings always have to be people making the same criticism of the ranking system?
Oh look, another genius who doesn’t understand how these rankings work
Maybe you didn’t read the original article. It reads, ” As always, we want to know what you think, so be sure to let us know in the comments.” 😉
If it were just WAR, Colorado would be much lower, but the FAN% counts for quite a bit right now. It’s a preseason estimate of the teams performance by the FAN graphs staff. Teams with a hot start relative to their FAN% rating have to fight against it. Teams with a cold start are flattered by their FAN% esteem. Colorado is one of these teams.
It’d be interesting to have a pre-calculated WAR%/FAN% differential to be able to see the over/under performance by a team at a quicker glance. It’ll show how off the FAN% estimation is at this moment. As the season progresses, we’ll see team settle into their skill levels and then there will be stronger evidence that the FAN% is right and is wrong for certain teams.
On a lighter note, this ranking system sucks!!!!!
FAN% has nothing to do with the FanGraphs staff. The major criticism against the usage of the FAN% in the rankings (Cleveland’s early-season placement) has been essentially proven wrong.
The major criticism has not been proven wrong. Since when does two weeks take precedence over two months? I’ll sit and wait while you display the evidence that the Indians will play the rest of the season at a 62 win pace.
Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta, Seth Smith, Todd Helton, Jorge de la Rosa (pre-injury), Jhoulys Chacin.
Do you want more because I can’t count and want to make sure you tell me when I reach 5.
Matt Lindstrom, Matt Reynolds, Rafael Betancourt, Juan Nicasio. However Reynolds and Nicasio are very small sample size for RPs.
My question is where is Carlos Gonzalez, lol.
I’m sure this isn’t a new thought, but it really seems like the Braves were underrated by the Fans when you at where they were in comparison to the Marlins, Mets, Rockies, and Tigers. And that’s not a comment made just on recent results-they looked like a team that would challenge the Phillies the NL East before the season, and despite some trials, they’re living up to it so far.
Re: the folks who always complain about Cleveland’s ranking.
Cleveland has won just 4 of their last 18, and just 14-of-35. Just sayin’.
You are nicer than I am. I was just gonna say “where’d all the Indians fans go?” as they free fall into third or fourth.
Just sayin’ what? Because it seems pretty odd that the people who were going ‘sometimes it happens’ when the Indians were winning a whole bunch of games refuse to admit that maybe, just maybe ‘sometimes it happens’ when they lose a whole bunch too. Arbitrarily picking the evidence we like because it fits the profile we want to believe certainly sounds sabermetrically sound.
How can you have the mariners below:
Baltimore
CHC
Oakland
Anaheim
and the effing Mets??
and at #26 for 2 weeks?
The M’s are 1.5 back, recently won 6 series in a row, and have been playing great ball against everyone but the White Sox
How can you have (Insert my team’s name here) below (teams above my team)!?!?!?!?!?
Because these rankings have very little to do with how the teams are playing.
Oh, and Seattle has been ranked #26 on this chart for *at least* 7 weeks. (I didn’t check before 5/2).
this sounds like excellent methodology for an espn writer
Because these rankings are meant to dig deeper than win-loss record. We also got outscored while splitting the series against the Tigres.
The fairly pessimistic preseason expectations for the team are affecting the ranking, but also our current team fWAR is pretty low. However, our pythag win% is right around .500, with rWAR more or less agreeing (we have 14.3 rWAR).
With the current UZR samples being so unreliable, I wonder if they could be usefully regressed to zero based on the amount of season played (as MGL suggests in his UZR primer). Or, perhaps pythag could be incorporated into these rankings as an additional factor.
Haven’t you heard? The White Sox are the new Metric System.
Tejada and Hall probably would be the most craptastic DP combo in history, however I expect we will rarely if ever see it. For now the Giants seem happy with the rookie Brandon Crawford at SS and the talk is if Tejada can continue to hit as he finally has the past few games they might try him at 2B when Sandoval returns, with Fontenot competing for playing time from both when he’s back and Hall and/or Burriss being the utility guys off the bench.
All those guys are pretty craptastic Eljimador. Well except for Crawford who hasn’t had the time to show whether he will join the rest of the group. So pick any combo of those guys you want and you will have a less than stellar MI combo.
If you think Crawford is craptastic on defense then you haven’t ever watched him play. Dude is a slick fielder.
If you think JETER is craptastic on defense then you haven’t ever watched him play. Dude is a slick fielder.
Sorry, lame but funny.
this. I’m expecting to see a lot less tejada with sandoval back from the DL. LIke El-J says, I think fontenot and hall will probably split time at 2B, with crawford holding down SS.
I was worried about the tejada signing before the season, but I didn’t think he’d be this bad. In Sabes’ defense, there weren’t a lot of good alternatives available.
Tejada has barely even played any SS since Crawford was called up.
Crawford has been very very good defensively, easily the best infielder on SF’s roster. He has good hand, great range, and an accurate arm (although only average in strength).
I dont know why the author thinks that Tejada and Hall will see any significant time on the field together a s DP combo.
Fontenot will still play 2b over Hall, and should be back soon, and Crawford isnt going anywhere. Not a good hitter, but he has a good approach, only swinging at strikes, and walking over 10% of the time. And his defense is more valuable to the team than a guy who can hit marginally better, but has zero range or defensive ability whatsoever like Tejada.
Just saw that somone thinks Crawford is a “craptastic fielder”.
That notionis completely and utterly wrong.
Obviosu you havent watched any Giants games and I would be willing to gues that youre either:
1) going by some advanced fielding metric whihc has not even come close to approaching a useable sample size, and are still very flawed and innacurrate even when the sample is significant, or
2) you’re just making crap up off the top of your head and have no real clue.
see what i just wrote below for a real perspective on Crawfords abilities
Good alternatives? No, but they could have actually PAID Juan Uribe.
Tejada is gettin hot. Do not write him off. He aint the fielder or hitter he once was, but he’s a savvy vet who get hot at different points to help this club out, especially with Freddy going down now. I think that you will see Bochy riding the hot hand at 3B and 2B, cuz while Sandoval has played better this season he still has a short leash and can easily lose his job if Hall/Tejada/Fontenot get hot at any point. 2B will be even more of a toss up between those three and you could also see Hall playing a bit of LF with Burrell being terrible and Nate not hitting consistently.
Never mind the keystone, how about Huff, Hall, Burriss, Tejada and Whiteside in the infield. (I think that may already have happened in the big loss to the Reds, but I don’t remember for sure.)
Yuniesky Betancourt and Mike Aviles?
Contender??
for worst DP combo in history (or at least within the last two years, heh.)
The early 2000’s Twins’ middle infields of Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman were pretty bad for teams that won division titles.
The snark on this comment thread is alarming and hilarious.
Hanley and Uggla
For all the criticism, FAN looks reasonably reliable right now. Good for you, Paul, for sticking with your methodology despite the commentator temper-tantrums.
The tigers are about 5 spots too low.
So what are the theories for why the Rockies have been so much worse than their FAN%? Losing De La Rosa hurts, Ubaldo has been shaky, and Cargo isn’t what he was last year, but would that account for all of it? I can see them rebounding, but it’s tough to see them being tied for the 3rd best team in the majors, like FAN% says.
My theory is that the Rockies didn’t have nearly as much talent as most people thought, which I said before the season began.
Bill Hall is 31 years old.
That should have been in the form of a question. He’s been around forever it seems.
HEY! dont do that to the giants. its the best options they got right now unless someone is gonna shop a better option… and no Jose Reyes is not the answer for the giants because we need right handed middle of the order bat that can play middle infield. Maybe along the lines of Ben Zobrist? I think that the giants could make it happen by giving them a top-shelf reliever (Romo, Lopez, Ramirez, Runzler) and possibly Brandon Belt because I know they are looking for 1B/DH type. Belt is a great 1B prospect who has versatility, projects to hit for a very high average with average to above average power (20-5 HRS), and shows very good fielding ability both at 1B and in the OF as well. Romo is a terrific reliever who is young and dirty against right handers, Lopez is unhittable against lefties, Ramirez has great downward tilt on everything he throws and gets a ton of groundballs, and Runzler is still a bit of a project still but has and uncanny delivery from the left side that allows for great amounts of movement on everything he throws (High K, High BB). So Whatever type of reliever the Rays want cuz they have been struggling in that department coupled with a young hitter who projects really well could allow them to part with Zobrist in favor of Sean Rodriguez. but I can only hope Sabean thinks of something along those lines.
A decent hitting second sacker would certainly be nice. But with Panda back & Crawford seeming to hold down SS pretty well thus far, Second Base will be the Utility spot that the left side was last year. Bochy can alternate between Burriss & Fontenot depending on matchups and get a mediocre bat/great glove out of them. Shedding any of the relievers doesn’t seem like a very good idea, as they are the HUGE reason the G-men are winning at all this year, when the return/improvement at 2b won’t be that big a deal (unless Brandon Phillips is suddenly available!)
If you’re interested, the Nats have this kid named Matt Stairs, he’s only 43 years old, and he can “play” infield…
This is a bunch of crap. The best record, team, pitching and favorite for the WS resides in Philly. They are 1A to a Yankees team that can not pitch and a Red Sox team with no bullpen……………what a joke!!!!
This is a bunch of crap. The best record, team, pitching and favorite for the WS resides in Philly. They are 1A to a Yankees team that can not pitch and a Red Sox team with no bullpen……………what a joke!!!! Oh and they have compiled this reord while thier starting second baseman, ss, catcher, right fielder, 3 and 5 starters and thier closer and set-up man have all spent significant time on the DL. I would love to hear the crying in New York or Boston if this was the case for thier teams!!!!