FANS Playoff Probabilities – NL Version
Last week I presented American League playoff probabilities based on a simulation I had created (which I came to find is similar to the one produced by xls sports if you want to play around with this yourself. They even have incorporated home field which I have not yet). If you are interested in the details of the simulation, give last weeks post a quick read. Remember, these are based off of standings generated from the FANS projections. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the National League results.
East Div Win % WC Win % Playoff % Braves 56% 9% 65% Phillies 23% 11% 34% Marlins 12% 7% 19% Mets 7% 4% 11% Nationals 2% 1% 3%
Central Cardinals 63% 6% 69% Cubs 12% 5% 17% Brewers 11% 5% 16% Reds 10% 5% 15% Astros 3% 1% 4% Pirates 1% 0% 1%
West Rockies 35% 12% 47% Diamondbacks 31% 13% 44% Dodgers 18% 10% 28% Giants 9% 6% 15% Padres 7% 5% 12%
and again some other useful data points compared to historical data
Division Avg. Wins 2002-2009 Avg Wins East 94 95 Central 93 93 West 94 91 Wild Card 91 91
The big surprise here is the Braves/Phillies flip-flopping in the East. It would be interesting to go back through the FANS projections for the two teams and see who the FANS are higher/lower on than other projection systems. In the Central, the Cardinals have the tightest hold on any division in baseball according to the FANS, while the West looks like it will be a dogfight.
Next on the simulation to-do list is to simulate some of the most probable playoff scenarios.
Steve's ramblings about baseball can also be found at Beyond the Box Score and Play a Hard Nine or you can follow him on Twitter
Without actually looking into it, I’m guessing that the fans are more optimistic about Jurrjens and Hanson than other systems and less optimistic about Rollins, Happ, Moyer, Blanton, and Hamels.
They also seem to be forgetting they lost Vasquez and replaced him with… uhm…
Vasquez for the sake of these probabilities isn’t on the Braves, even if he’s still on the Braves projection page.
…Tim Hudson.
Its this brand new thing called having 5 good starters already.
Assuming you’re right, I think the fans would be wrong on Jurrjens, Rollins, and Hamels, bringing the Phillies a little closer to the Braves.
Neat to see another perspective that the Phillies aren’t runaway favorites at all.