Organizational Rankings: Current Talent – Washington

Since the franchise waived au revoir to Canada and shed those Expos unis, the Washington Nationals have brought up the rear in the NL East four times in five seasons. In 2010, the Nationals figure to post another losing campaign, though not of the 100-plus loss variety seen in both 2008 and 2009. The FANS project the Nationals to tally 72 wins. CHONE has the club at 74 victories, while The Hardball Times and CAIRO forecast 78 and 73 wins, respectively.

While the world waits for Stephen Strasburg to begin throwing upper-90’s gas and knee-buckling breaking stuff in the majors, the Nationals aren’t without talent, particularly when it comes to position players.

Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is a defensive wizard who upped his offensive game last season. The 25 year-old might not post a 7+ WAR season again, but he’s one of the most valuable assets in the game as an all-around force under team control through 2013.

Center fielder Nyjer Morgan is “Death to Flying Things,” NL-style. He’s no great shakes with the bat, but he should add a win to two wins next year with his glove alone. Ian Desmond (projected to be an average starter by the FANS) could take over a middle infield position at some point, and vexing right fielder Elijah Dukes still retains an intriguing mix of patience, pop and athleticism. Both the FANS and CHONE project a two-plus win season in 2010, though Dukes would need to stay off the trainer’s table for that to happen. Jesus Flores has a quality bat for a catcher, but a serious shoulder injury wrecked his 2009 season, and he figures to start 2010 on the disabled list as well.

In addition to those core position players, Washington has left fielder Josh Willingham, an offensive metronome (wRC+ between 122-129 every season since 2006) who’s good for a 2-3 WAR season. First baseman Adam Dunn’s exploits in the batter’s box are matched only by his ineptitude in the field. The Nationals might be best off exploring the trade market for these two: the 31 year-old Willingham has two years of team control left, and the 30 year-old Dunn (owed $12 million this year) will be eligible for free agency after the 2010 season. Adding more young, cost-controlled talent to the roster would seem to trump keeping Willingham and Dunn in a quest to crack 75 wins. Cristian Guzman, a pending free agent owed $8 million, could also be on the block.

On the pitching side, Strasburg (a consensus top-two prospect) obviously steals the show. Washington was dealt a blow, however, when Jordan Zimmermann (3.39 xFIP in 2009) had to undergo Tommy John surgery in August. He’s unlikely to toss a major league pitch this year, but still holds considerable long-term potential.

John Lannan has confused many a stat-head: he has an ERA in the high three’s over the past couple of seasons, despite a FIP in the high fours. The lefty has decent control and gets groundballs, but don’t be surprised if he regresses in 2010. Free agent signee Jason Marquis discovered a sinker last year and had a career year. He’s worth $7.5 million per year in a vacuum, though one could argue that a rebuilding club could better allocate that kind of cash. Speaking of sinkerballers, Chien-Ming Wang will try to resume burning worms after he finishes up rehab for shoulder surgery. A shoulder injury has sapped Scott Olsen of the stuff that made him a top prospect with Florida. His ’09 season ended in July, as he went under the knife to repair a torn labrum. Former first-rounder Ross Detwiler will miss a good chunk of the season with a hip ailment that required surgery.

Candidates for the back of the rotation include Garrett Mock, J.D. Martin, Livan Hernandez, Collin Balester, Craig Stammen and Miguel Batista, none of whom project for more than 1.5 WAR in 2010.

The only bench name of note is Willie Harris, who has actually averaged nearly 2 WAR over the past three seasons. In the bullpen, the Nationals will hope that Matt Capps has a sound shoulder and elbow, and that Brian Bruney can throw strikes more than “monthly.” Tyler Clippard punched out nearly 10 batters per nine frames last year, though extreme fly ball tendencies, so-so control, a high strand rate and a low BABIP mean there was a big gap between his xFIP (4.35) and ERA (2.69). Even so, he’s the team’s top-rated ‘pen arm, according to CHONE.

Washington has a superstar in Zimmerman, and another possible one in Strasburg. The outfield looks like it should be above-average, too. However, the Nationals could struggle to keep runs off the board, and injuries to important youngsters Zimmermann, Flores and Detwiler are disappointing. It’s near impossible to envision a scenario in which the club climbs higher than third in the NL East. Washington could nudge in front of the Marlins and/or the Mets, but anything more than that is a pipe dream.