FANS Playoff Probabilities – NL Version

Last week I presented American League playoff probabilities based on a simulation I had created (which I came to find is similar to the one produced by xls sports if you want to play around with this yourself. They even have incorporated home field which I have not yet). If you are interested in the details of the simulation, give last weeks post a quick read. Remember, these are based off of standings generated from the FANS projections. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the National League results.

East       Div Win %    WC Win %   Playoff %
Braves           56%          9%         65%
Phillies         23%         11%         34%
Marlins          12%          7%         19%
Mets              7%          4%         11%
Nationals         2%          1%          3%
Cardinals        63%         6%          69%
Cubs             12%         5%          17%
Brewers          11%         5%          16%
Reds             10%         5%          15%
Astros            3%         1%           4%
Pirates           1%         0%           1%
Rockies          35%        12%          47%
Diamondbacks     31%        13%          44%
Dodgers          18%        10%          28%
Giants            9%         6%          15%
Padres            7%         5%          12%

and again some other useful data points compared to historical data

Division        Avg. Wins      2002-2009 Avg Wins
East              94           95
Central           93           93
West              94           91
Wild Card         91           91

The big surprise here is the Braves/Phillies flip-flopping in the East. It would be interesting to go back through the FANS projections for the two teams and see who the FANS are higher/lower on than other projection systems. In the Central, the Cardinals have the tightest hold on any division in baseball according to the FANS, while the West looks like it will be a dogfight.

Next on the simulation to-do list is to simulate some of the most probable playoff scenarios.

Steve's ramblings about baseball can also be found at Beyond the Box Score and Play a Hard Nine or you can follow him on Twitter

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The A Team
12 years ago

Without actually looking into it, I’m guessing that the fans are more optimistic about Jurrjens and Hanson than other systems and less optimistic about Rollins, Happ, Moyer, Blanton, and Hamels.

Tom B
12 years ago
Reply to  The A Team

They also seem to be forgetting they lost Vasquez and replaced him with… uhm…

David Appelmanmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Tom B

Vasquez for the sake of these probabilities isn’t on the Braves, even if he’s still on the Braves projection page.

Cooper S
12 years ago
Reply to  Tom B

…Tim Hudson.

12 years ago
Reply to  Tom B

Its this brand new thing called having 5 good starters already.

Sky Kalkman
12 years ago
Reply to  The A Team

Assuming you’re right, I think the fans would be wrong on Jurrjens, Rollins, and Hamels, bringing the Phillies a little closer to the Braves.

Neat to see another perspective that the Phillies aren’t runaway favorites at all.