Felix Is King
Sunday afternoon was simply another outing for Felix Hernandez. King Felix threw eight shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians, striking out nine, walking one, and only allowing four hits. The big game was nothing new for Hernandez this season, whose 2.38 ERA trails only Clay Buchholz among American League pitchers and whose 2.95 FIP trails only Francisco Liriano and Cliff Lee in that same group.
Given how remarkable Hernandez’s stuff is, it should be no surprise that he is among the best pitchers in the world. All of his pitches were at top form on Sunday, as we can see thanks to the Pitch F/X data from Brooks Baseball. His fastball sat between 92 and 96 and drew three swinging strikes in 40 pitches. Hernandez showed fantastic control of that pitch, as it was a strike 28 times overall – over 70% of the time. Batters clearly weren’t making good contact on his fastball either, as the pitch type linear weights value for the pitch was a whopping -2.2 runs for the game.
His other fastball, classified as a sinker by Pitch F/X but still in the 92-96 range, was similarly impressive, drawing five whiffs and notching 28 strikes in 43 pitches. Hernandez only had to go to his off-speed stuff 28 times, including a 90 MPH changeup which hardly classifies as off-speed. That changeup was only used seven times but proved deadly, as it drew four whiffs – an unfathomable 57.4% whiff rate. The slider, which averaged 85 MPH, wasn’t quite as impressive in terms of contact – three whiffs in 18 pitches – but Hernandez’s control of the pitch was excellent, as it went for a strike 13 times.
This start only adds to Hernandez’s fantastic 2010 line. Now, on the season, Hernandez has thrown 219.1 innings, striking out 209, walking only 60 and allowing 14 home runs. That comes out to rates of 8.58 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, and 0.57 HR/9 – numbers which finally equal the numbers that Hernandez put up as a 20 year old phenom with a blazing fastball out of the minor leagues. In 2005, that excellent rookie year, Hernandez posted a 2.67 ERA and a still career best 2.85 FIP in his first 12 major league starts. Hernandez’s FIP currently sits at 2.95, in a much larger sample. People expected great things out of him after that season, and although Hernandez has been nothing short of fantastic, this is the first time since that he has truly regained that level of greatness. It’s safe to say that Felix Hernandez has assumed the throne that many believed he would after such an impressive debut stint in the Major Leagues.
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FYI Felix did issue one walk yesterday. It was still a great performance. It was nice to see him fill his boots against a weaker lineup before some potentially tricky starts later this month against TEX and TBR.
I’d love to see Felix win the Cy Young but with his win totals, I can’t see it going to anyone but C.C.
I think you’re right, and it’s unfortunate. As a Yankee fan, I love what CC has done in his two years here, and I shudder to think what the rotation would look like without him. But objectively speaking, he hasn’t been the best pitcher in the AL this year, and it’s not all that close. I think WAR undersells Sabathia a little bit because it’s based on FIP instead of tERA (which gives CC credit back for upping the ground ball rate instead of just docking him for falling strikeout rate), but it wouldn’t be enough to make a difference.
I like what you say. I give zero consideration to Fangraphs’ WAR for pitchers. Its supposedly saying that Liriano has been more valuable than CC, Hernandez, or Cliff Lee. That is just absurd. Just look at the innings pitched, Liriano’s not even on the mound enough to influence the teams chances as much as the other guys. Liriano has been good, and is probably underrated, but come on.
I hate the Yankees, but CC has been excellent and no one should take that away from him. Cliff Lee has been great as well. Its just the fact that Felix has been so insanely dominant that his performance overshadows all the other excellent pitching in the AL this year.
Unfortunately, sports writers have no shame in using faulty reasoning when they vote for individual awards, so Felix is probably going to get nothing to show for his brilliant season.
totally ignoring FG’s WAR for pitchers is probably far worse than using only FG’s WAR to evaluate a pitchers value. I think using a weighting of FG and B-reference is probably best, giving more value to the site who’s method you agree with the most.
To clarify, I more agree with pele, that we should be looking at both metrics. Also, just because I prefer tERA doesn’t mean I think FIP is worthless.
what site keeps updated tERA?
This one does on the individual player pages (though I don’t think it’s on the leaderboards).
The Cy Young is a joke if anybody but Felix wins. He has so clearly been the best pitcher in the AL but because he doesn’t score runs… something he has no control over… all of a sudden he’s not? Ridiculous.
The Cy Young has been a running joke for years now. Last year gave us Saberheads some hope, and if Felix finishes a close second I will consider that a very nice small step forward.
Right now I’d vote for Cliff Lee, mainly because of the historic control numbers he’s putting up. He and Felix and basically tied in both xFIP and WAR so it’s not very clear cut. Felix has benefited from the highest LOB% and lowest BABIP among the top twelve or so pitchers by xFIP although high LOB% is certainly nothing new for him.
I definitely don’t think a vote for Felix is wrong but I’d give the nod to the guy who’s on pace to set a new record for K/BB.
“Felix has benefited from the highest LOB% and lowest BABIP among the top twelve or so pitchers by xFIP although high LOB% is certainly nothing new for him.
”
Why do we think these things are luck, when there’s absolutely no evidense that they are?
Maybe there are some people who think they’re luck, but I’d have to side with the ones that think it’s a combination of skill and luck.
I would say that its not that we think its all luck, its that we can’t attribute all of it to him, and we don’t know what percentage is Felix, and what percentage is the guys behind him. Basically, is Felix’s BABIP a function of what Felix is doing, or is it a function of the defense and park? The fact that Fister is the only Mariners starter who isn’t outperforming his FIP, and that the Mariners as a team have the 4th lowest BABIP against (behind only the Athletics and Rays, who make sense, and the Yankees, who are a surprise) are signs to me that the Mariners’ team explains a lot of the BABIP. LOB…harder to tell.
I agree. Rather than credit the pitcher 0% or 100%, we should just go 50/50 until we have a better understanding of the pitcher’s influences on such things.
I can’t remember where I read this, so it could be wrong, but I seem to recall reading something somewhere saying that 1/7th of BABIP variation is controlled by the pitcher, with the rest being defense/ballpark/luck, etc.
I would have agreed with you on Lee a month ago. In my mind it’s a two-man race between Felix and Lee, unless Sabathia, Liriano or Price do something really freaking awesome in September.
Are you quoting me as stating that LOB and BABIP are luck? All that I was saying is that he has benefited from both numbers, just like he’s benefited from very good K/9 and BB/9 numbers. I leave it to the reader to decide how much to weight those numbers but I think most would weight them less than the big three: K/9, BB/9, GB%.
I could care less about the K/BB ratio. If anything, I’d say that makes him VERY predictable. Rewards are about production and nobody has produced like Felix this year. His ERA, WHIP, xFIP, all near identical to Lee’s but Felix has actually been healthy and consistent. Can’t do anything for your team if you’re not playing.
I would agree that Felix should get credit for posting more innings than Lee. As I said, I’m fine with people who would vote for Hernandez but I’d vote for Lee because of the control numbers.
And what’s wrong with being predictable? Roy Halladay is predictable, ’99 Pedro Martinez was predictable. Is there something wrong with being predictably outstanding?
I love that he’s six month younger than David Price and two years younger than Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, and Josh Johnson. It feels like he’s been around for awhile now (because he has been) but he is still on the young side of things.
Long live the King!
WAR is mostly insignificant for pitchers on a one-year basis. It’s a counting stat.
Mat Latos isn’t even in the top five for NL pitcher WAR because of innings limits and “DL” stints. I really think I’d only listen to an argument for Johnson, Halladay, or maybe Wainwright being better in the NL.
But Chad Billingsley? lol no
You say that as if durability isn’t valuable. It is. For pitchers, hugely so.
Counting stats may not be relevant to deciding who’s the “best”, but they are absolutely relevant for deciding who’s contributed the most.
There’s no good argument for using rate stats to decide awards winners, unless of course you’re just trying to make Mat Latos a candidate.
I would think is the slight front-runner based on how he has pitched. But, I would also give the other guys a slight nudge due to pitching in more important games.
I don;t think Lee is nearly the lock he once was.
I don;t think any AL pitcher ha a case for them winning the CYA that completely trumps the case of the other candidates.
I think Felix is vote worthy.
Not only is the Cy Young award a disgrace, but the so-called SABR experts who get a vote don’t have a clue what they’re doing either. Keith Law insults people who don’t use advanced metrics but he only has a very elementary knowledge of them. For example, he always mentions WAR and FIP when determining what pitchers are having the best years. He must not realize that xFIP is proven to be a better stat than FIP thus making WAR useless since FIP is one of its main components. WAR should use tERA or SIERA since both account for GB%. Once the Cy Young award gets people that understand what metrics are best, we will have a fair vote. It doesn’t look very promising, though.
I think it’s getting better every year. Look at Grienke’s win last year.
Everytime they talk about it on TV it’s between Price, Bucholz, and Sabathia. No mention of Felix. I highly doubt Felix finishes in the top 3 which is disgraceful.
This coming from a Rays fan, Price shouldn’t even be in the top 3. (Felix, Lee, and Weaver).
Grienke might also have won the award because he led the AL in ERA … and by a significant amount. He was also 2nd in K’s.
He had 16 wins in a year when there was not a 20-game winner.
Grienke could have won the CYA based on nothing but having the lowest ERA … god forbid, right?
Most times, the metrics, simple and advanced, tend to point in the same direction. Lowest ERA, 2nd in K’s, 16 wins when league leader had 19 … and it’s a pretty good pick … even without appealling to advanced metrics.
Now, when a guy with a low amount of wins, a deceivingly high ERA, etc wins the award … then we can celebrate the dominance of advanced metrics.
Grienke as the SABR figurehead is not the best example. He was among league leaders in traditional pitching metrics as well.
Grienke’s win does signal that pitching wins is not given the weight it used to … at least in a year when no one in either league won 20.
As I said, Grienke was a sign of progress. Everyone seems to get caught up in a “not there yet” mentality. It’s going to take time for the dinosaurs to wise up, people.
“He must not realize that xFIP is proven to be a better stat than FIP”
If that’s been proven somewhere, I’d like to see it.
xFIP might be better for predicting future performance, but it certainly isn’t better for evaluating past performance. Home runs count, whether the rate is unlucky or not.
If people ask Law about a stat he uses, he explains it. He only gets snarky and dismissive with people coming in looking for a fight.
xFIP is more predictive, but if you’re trying to figure out how good a pitcher has been in the past, FIP is a much better stat.
“People expected great things out of him after that season, and although Hernandez has been nothing short of fantastic, this is the first time since that he has truly regained that level of greatness.”
A 12 start season shouldn’t be confused with greatness (for example, Joel Pineiro 2001, and I’m sure a litany of others). Also, “first time” overlooks 2009.
Felix 2005 >>>>>>> Joel Pineiro 2001.
And people didn’t just expect greatness based on the results of his 12 starts. It was how he achieved those starts, with a curveball that had ridiculous vertical break (that he rarely throws today), a wicked change, and a two-seamer he seemed to be able to locate right at the knees at will that was downright unfair.
To understand the 2005 excitement around Felix, it really helps if you actually watched the games. It also helps if you slogged through the 2004 and 2005 seasons watching the awful pitch-to-contact Mariners rotations and anemic offenses.
Not to mention, Felix was a generational prospect as well. It wasn’t just those 12 starts, it was those 12 starts combined with the snowballing hype that began when he was a 17 year old in Everett who was already crowned with the nickname “King”.
Bonus points for the first to correctly name the blogger who coined the term King Felix.
Also, Felix’s ERA after yesterday is 2.30, still second to Buchholz’s 2.25. As dumb as it is, if Felix finishes in first place in ERA and strikeouts at season’s end, along with the Sabermetrically inclined arguments, his chances of beating out Sabathia for the Cy Young shoot way up.
Leading in ERA and K’s go much firther than does leading the league in Wins. I looked up past winners some time ago, and even in previous decades the league leader in wins doesn’t always win. Lead the league in ERA and K’s, and you’re well on your way (like leading the league in HRs and RBIs).
Cool! Without looking it up myself, I’m inclined to agree with you. However, it’s also worth noting (as it has been so many other places and I’m sure this isn’t new to you) that there has never been a Cy Young winner with an even or losing record, and it’s entirely possible that Felix finishes at .500 or below. But if anyone in recent times can win it anyway, it’s Felix and his 2010 campaign.
He also will lead in innings pitched. It will be pretty amazing if he actually finishes leading in ERA, K’s, and innings pitched. That’s about as close to a triple crown as a pitcher can get with classic stats. He’s really struggled against Texas and the Halos this year though and he has 3 of his final 5 starts against them, if memory serves. So this should get interesting.
I think that part of the disagreement comes because the purpose of the award isn’t well defined. People cans say that it should go to the “best” pitcher, but is that the player who had the best season or the person who had the best season independent of factors out of control. If it goes to the pitcher who is the most likely to have an outstanding season next year then maybe xFIP is the best indicator. If it should go to the pitcher who has contributed the most to his team this year, ERA (or maybe some sort of stat that takes into account unearned runs as well) and innings pitched should have a large say. At least thats what makes sense to me.
We really shouldn’t be discounting things like low HR rate, low BABIP, and high LOB% to judge past performance. Obviously they’re excellent markets to predict how an individual might pitch in the future, but being lucky shouldn’t be some kind of black mark on the pitcher’s past performance if he has an excellent ERA.
I agree completely.
All of this discussion (Fangraphs’ WAR, other WAR formulas, Cy Young voting) should eventually lead to something productive.
We need some concrete analysis on exactly what a pitcher controls, and to what level. Liriano’s been crushing the Fangraphs’ WAR rankings on an innings-pitched basis for much of the year because of his ridiculously low HR allowed rate. Tim Hudson’s gotten almost no respect on the same list despite leading the majors in GB% by a ridiculous margin.
Now, I realize Liriano’s a much better strikeout pitcher (almost twice the K rate, even), and that’s a huge thing, but there’s gotta be something inherently wrong with the metric if:
Their walk rates are basically identical
Hudson’s ERA is a run lower
Hudson’s pitched 25 more innings
Hudson’s “skill” has been more demonstratably controllable (GB% vs. HR/FB%)
and yet Liriano’s WAR is 6.0 and Hudson’s is 3.2
Seriously?
Oh, and how does this relate to King Felix? Well, he’s good at everything, too, a lot like Liriano, except he’s an innings machine as well. Scary.
Hudson is a great pitcher, but you are not taking into account his low BABIP, even for his standards. That’s one reason his ERA is lower, not to mention you shouldn’t compare ERA across leagues – put him in the AL and Liriano in the NL, you have a new ballgame.
But, Tim Hudson is trying to win the AL CYA, right?
As has been mentioned earlier in this comments section, I’m not trying to predict if Hudson’s going to be this good next year, I’m trying to judge how good he has been THIS year.
I seriously doubt Liriano’s going to maintain a sub-3% HR/FB rate next year, either, but he’s done it this year, and he’s clearly getting credit for it in the fWAR ratings. Why isn’t Hudson getting more credit for leading GB% by nearly 5% over all of MLB?
A low BABIP indicates he’s definitely gotten more outs on batted balls than you’d expect. Despite beginning my journey at the altar of McCracken, I, however, believe at least some of that variation (Hudson’s at .247 this season, .286 career) is the result of Hudson pitching better.
…and frankly, even if it isn’t, I think he should be given credit for it for this year. The SABR push away from wins shouldn’t push away from counting stats alltogether, as amassing some things makes one a more viable Cy candidate, even if wins has cast a disproportionately large shadow on the award in the past.
(that last bit was to tie back into Felix Hernandez again — I hope he gets the consideration he deserves because of the massive amount of innings he’s going to pitch)
(that and he’s completely horsecollared the Yankees, an impressive feat)
I’ll bring up Rally WAR again. I think this is the best way to evaluate a pitcher’s past performance. Felix leads the AL at 5.5 wins, Weaver and Buchholz 2nd at 4.9, then 8 pitchers (which does not include Cliff Lee) between 4 and 4.5 wins. Felix should win it, but who knows what will really happen.
Felix should beat out CC simply because Felix doesn’t get to face the Mariners, and CC doesn’t have to face the Yankees.
When you average fWAR and rWAR (which is better than just taking one or the other), you get the following top 5 in Al/NL WAR.
American League
—————–
Francisco Liriano* 5.2
Felix Hernandez 5.1
Jered Weaver 4.75
Cliff Lee* 4.75
Jon Lester* 4.4
National League
—————–
Roy Halladay 6.35
Josh Johnson 6.25
Ubaldo Jimenez 5.45
Adam Wainwright 5.3
Tim Hudson 4.5
Brett Myers is having a surprising season, BTW.
I’m fine with either Liriano/Hernandez and Halladay/Johnson winning the award. I probably give Halladay and Liriano a nudge due to doing it on teams that are in playoff races, but that is personal preference.
I do think pitchers should be given some credit for not allowing runs, and by averaging the 2 WARs, you get some credit to the P for doing so. Until we a better understanding of measuring a pitcher’s influence on runs allowed, averaging them seems like the best thing to do. I like Tango’s quote of “being half right instead of all wrong”, in that regard.
B-R uses Rally’s WAR, right?
Yes
Why am I the only person that thinks this article is extremely strange in that it makes Felix’s 2009 season seem mediocre?
“Hernandez’s FIP currently sits at 2.95, in a much larger sample. People expected great things out of him after that season, and although Hernandez has been nothing short of fantastic, this is the first time since that he has truly regained that level of greatness”
So his 3.09 FIP (4th in the AL), 6.9 WAR (also 4th), and 8.18 K/9 from last year aren’t as good as his 12 start sample as a 20 year old? In fact, Felix’s numbers show very little deviation from last year – he’s gone up in K/9 by .4, down in BB/9 by .22, and maintained the exact same HR/9 rate. How does this article propose that this is somehow a giant leap from Felix’s often overlooked 2009 season? It seems more that Felix is CONTINUING his greatness of 2009 more than reaching the greatness he had in a 12 start sample as a 20 year old.
JJ,
i think you misread the article. in no way does the author say anything that would lead you to suggest that Felix was anything short of very very good in 09 and in any other year. using a 12 start sample as a benchmark is a little silly, but all the author is pointing out is how awesome 2010 has been for the king.
I don’t think I misread it – he clearly states that “this is the first time since that he has truly regained that level of greatness”; which in itself is ridiculous because it insinuates a player reaching ‘greatness’ after only 12 starts. The article clearly demeans his 2009 season, when, in fact, it is nearly identical to the 2010 season when he’s praising.
I disagree with that – one can certainly have twelve games of greatness. If those twelve games are isolated it doesn’t necessarily mean much going forward, but that doesn’t change the fact that for those twelve games, he was great.
I definitely got the same feel about the article completely ignoring 2009 where he would have been CY had it not been for Greinke’s amazing season. Uncanny how similar the last 2 seasons are for Felix.
I wonder if Ranger fans are wondering what the big deal is…
Take out Felix’s 4 starts against TEX (24 IP, 17 ER, 0-3) and you have one heck of a season left…
195.1 IP, 39 ER is a 1.80 ERA — yikes.
I’m guessing Yankee fans agree with the love, though… 3 starts, 3-0, 26 innings, 1 ER, 16 H, 8 BB, 31 K. Ouch.
Add the Halos in there too. He’s pitched just over 26 innings against them and given up 11 runs and 0-2 (in 4 starts). Not really bad for most starters, but bad for him; now consider that if you add that to Texas’ numbers, you get 50 IP, 28 ER and 0-5, 5.04 ERA.
Against everybody else then he’s down to 169 IP, 28 ER, 1.49 ERA.
If I remember correctly, 3 of Felix’s next 5 starts are against the Halo’s and Texas. Should be interesting.
IP, k/9. R/9. Those are the 3 stats that mean the most for Cy Young.
If you are in the top 5 in all 3, you should be a candidate.
You have to pitch a lot (minimizing the use of league average pitchers), strike out a lot (reducing reliance on the the defense), and give up few runs.
Pitchers who do not pitch a lot, or do not strike out many, even if they have a low ERA should not be considered.
King Felix is w/o a doubt the Cy Young winner for 2010, even if he loses.
So extreme ground ball artists with impeccable control can’t be considered? Yes, they rely on their defense more, but the defense is most often making the difference between an out and a single in those cases, which seriously limits the run-scoring potential for the offense.
Felix would definitely have 20 wins at the end of the season if the M’s could hit the ball and score some runs. The guy has to practically have a shutout each time he pitches.
He is no longer referred to as the king, now he is just ‘The One’.