FG on Fox: Move the Trade Deadline Back
This is an exciting week in baseball, especially for those who are into speculation and rumor, as the July 31 trade deadline is coming up Thursday. Over the next 24 hours, we should see some pretty significant moves, with Jon Lester looking like the biggest name to join a contender, but potentially being joined by the likes of David Price and Cole Hamels. Where these players end up may very well decide which teams make the playoffs, or in some cases, which teams get to bypass the wild card game and advance right on to the real postseason.
Of course, Thursday’s deadline isn’t an actual trade deadline in the literal sense of the word. Trades can still be made next month, and they can even be made in September, right up until the end of the year. Thursday is just the end of the rules that make it easy to make a deal, because once the calendar flips over to August, waivers become involved and things get a bit more complicated. The guys who get moved in August are usually those who have big, expensive contracts, so Thursday’s deadline doesn’t really apply to guys like Cliff Lee, Matt Kemp, or Jonathan Papelbon.
This brings up a question, though: Why do we have a trade deadline that is only a deadline to trade some players and not others? And, while we’re at it, why is the deadline July 31 anyway?
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
move the rest of this article back
I think the deadline is fine where it is.
I like the idea that teams have to decide now whether they are buyers or sellers. Given the expanded playoffs, there are generally going to be fewer sellers. Fewer sellers helps those teams that sell increase their return and become more competitive in the future.
If everybody is selling, then good players are going to get traded for less. I would prefer to not see a bunch of complete mercenary teams because every decent player on an expiring contract got unleaded when there were only 30 games left.
I understand that Dave essentially argues the opposite, but I just don’t agree. He points out the Rays who are one hot streak away from being serious contenders after floundering for much of the season. They have an really difficult choice to make in regards to David Price. The upside to it is that the return for him would be increased today based on teams like Seattle who may or may not be in the chase in 30 days being interested. These choices are supposed to be hard.
agreed – the implicit (explicit?) premise of Dave’s argument is that it maximizes the movement of players and maximizes the quality of movement. I wouldn’t necessarily be in favor of either…
Having much more uncertainty around an earlier deadline makes for (a) more market inefficiencies and (b) higher risk/reward trades. Both of these things *could* be worse for teams, but also will be much better for teams… And I’d argue are better for baseball.
To echo the Professor above, I’d be much less interested in massively increasing supply in the trade market.
Why is there a trade deadline at all?
MLB is afraid that teams will trade for a bunch of hired guns the last week of the season and then postseason rosters won’t resemble the teams that got them there during the season. I’m in more of the “who cares?” camp on that complaint – but many people consider it of upmost importance that opening day rosters are the same as playoff rosters, even though it’s not true today at all.
Nobody considers it of the utmost importance that opening day rosters are the same as playoff rosters. That’s a big strawman.
Or mid-season rosters, whatever – I don’t know where people who care about mercenary teams draw their arbitrary line. I’m not creating a false view in order to tear it down here – your comment above is about this exact thing, that the teams you are viewing in the playoffs aren’t the same as the one that got them there. Somehow you create an arbitrary line that bringing in mercenaries with 60 games to go is ok, but 30 is not. It’s a matter of ascetics, there is no right answer.
However, from a non-ascetic viewpoint, the current trade deadline schemes are annoying because they restrict the trade market. I don’t think this is all about ascetics, but that freeing up the market would allow for teams to choose more favorable outcomes for themselves.
I could be wrong, but I think that it’s a reasonable viewpoint to hold.
There definitely isn’t a right answer.
But if there was no roster cut-off at all, you’d see trades on the last day of season where impending free agents went to playoff teams for a PTBNL or cash, just so the guy could play in the postseason.
Or even more bizarre, what if players with expiring contracts became free agents immediately after Game 162? The playoff teams could then sign a guy just for the playoffs.
And AK, I think you mean “aesthetic”. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ascetic
Teams can bring in mercenaries with 30 games to go, via waivers – like the Pirates did last year with Marlon Byrd. I get your overall point, but the line has to be drawn somewhere. Otherwise, teams can trade all of their upcoming free agents during the last week of September once they know they’re out of it, and the playoffs will be about which organization was willing to give up the most prospects.
Stupid autocorrect.
It seems to me that almost everything the MLB has done in the last few years is related to the aim of minimizing the number of “meaningless games” that fans must experience. The second WC was a brilliant maneuver to that end: it’s a scramble all the way through September, even teasm that are below .500 now still might be “in it.” The trade deadline, as it currently exists, also works toward the goal of reducuing “meaningless games” because teams are incentivized NOT to sell their players, and, having forfeited the returns on those guys, will go for broke until they’re mathematically eliminated.
I don’t think the MLB cares as much for the long-term health of each franchises individual rosters as much as it cares for the long-term health of its fans’ interest. If that means making GMs make tough decisions that err on the side of staying IN the race, I can’t see any reason the MLB would care. I don’t think this’ll change unless the GMs band together and really put some unified pressure on.
I see it completely opposite, teams that sell now are going to see a reduced attendance and viewership this year as well as take a hit on offseason season ticket sales. This doesn’t just hurt the specific team it hurts baseball overall. Moving the deadline 2 weeks could keep some of those borderline teams fans’ believing in them and still spending their hard earned incomes at the ballpark – which is a win win for team and league.
“We’re not wearing acid wash jeans and listening to hair metal bands anymore”
Maybe you’re not. I read this listening to Iron Maiden on my phone. Not exactly hair metal, but not that far removed.
Dave doesn’t get out much – and doesn’t seem to notice that Cistulli has been sporting Z Cavaricci pants for months.
Iron maiden was and still are one of the greats of all time, but shouldn’t be considered hair metal although they do get play on dee snider a house of hair…the 80-84 string of 5 albums might be the most impressive/peak prime for any hard rock or heavy metal artist…as for truer hair spray, local qrock station 100.7 aired white lion, tesla, and la guns…keep ’em cocked and loaded.
kind of reads like “because I’m a Rays fan”
I agreed with the title of the article, but between this and Taveras, it might be time to pack it in for the week.
“Passionate. Nuanced. Authentic.”
Reaching. Smug. Off-Putting.
I like Dave’s writing. I may even go to the silly Foxsportathonwhatever site to read more of it. Also, to be fair, Dave probably didn’t come up with the errata that surrounds his words – probably some douche with a marketing degree who thinks he got an education. But still. Ugh.
this ^ 100%
(and I am 100% sure Dave has nothing to do with it)
Given the randomness involved in winning baseball games, the expanded playoffs and the length of time past the trade deadline, it is not out of the question that we’ll see a team that was a “seller” in July actually make the playoffs in the future at some point (though this would likely be just the wild card game, which I personally don’t like referring to as “playoffs”).
Think: Rays do well enough without Price over the next 2 months to still reach the WC.