FG on Fox: Suggesting a Blockbuster
The Red Sox had too many hitters before they signed both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to lucrative contracts, and now, they have perhaps the deepest line-up in all of baseball. But they still don’t have any pitching, and they simply don’t have enough spots in the line-up to spread around between their talented hitters. Rarely has a team’s need to make a trade (or two) been so obvious.
However, finding a natural trade partner for Boston’s needs is a little tricky. Their most obvious trade chip, Yoenis Cespedes, has the right-handed power that a number of teams seek, but because he’s only under contract for one more season, the teams that will be most interested in acquiring his services are teams that are trying to win in 2015. And teams that are trying to win next year are unlikely to part with the kind of pitching that the Red Sox covet; after all, if you’re trying to win next year, you probably want to hang on to your frontline pitching, since you’ll need it yourself.
There is one contender who has signaled a willingness to move a frontline starting pitcher: the Washington Nationals. With both Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister set for free agency after next season — as well as shortstop Ian Desmond, center fielder Denard Span, and relief ace Tyler Clippard — the Nationals are in a position where it might make sense for them to degrade their 2015 team slightly in order to make sure they don’t experience too steep off of a drop-off after next season. Zimmermann, in particular, would likely return a significant trade package, given his recent excellence and reasonable price tag.
But the Nationals simply don’t have any need for Yoenis Cespedes, or really many of the other pieces Boston might use to try and land an ace. Their outfield is stacked as it is, and their only real glaring hole is in the middle infield, where they need a second baseman for 2015 and likely a shortstop for 2016, after Desmond hits free agency. The Red Sox aren’t trading Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts for a rent-a-pitcher, however, and so the Nationals don’t really seem to match up with the Red Sox that well.
Perhaps there’s a way to make a deal work between the two teams, however, if we can identify a third team that covets the right-handed power the Red Sox have for sale, and has an extra talented middle infielder to send to the nation’s capital. Enter the Seattle Mariners.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I would argue that the marginal value that Napoli provides over a Craig/Nava platoon is extremely important to a team like the Red Sox. While the Mariners need RH power and the Red Sox have a surplus, they don’t have much interest in depleting that surplus. I believe if they could get a top-half-of-the-rotation pitcher without giving up Cespedes or Napoli they probably would, but are slightly more unwilling to part with Betts or really significant prospect packages. I think they believe they can part with Cespedes, in part because of impending FA, in part because of defensive woes in RF, but doubt they’re as willing to trade Napoli as portrayed — and I sincerely doubt they’d be willing to move both. Particularly for one year of Zimmermann and one year of Clippard.
I also wonder how interested the Nats are in moving two of their best players for Miller (as underrated as he might be) and Hultzen. The Cespedes+ leading to a three way deal for Zimmermann (or another similar pitcher) isn’t far-fetched, but I doubt the + is Napoli.
The Sox should be looking to upgrade 1B with their offensive suplus anyway. Napoli isn’t that good. If they know why Craig sucked last year and are confident he gets better, even less of an issue.
as a sox fan, this is a no brainer. you are better this year, not giving up any future value and you save a bunch of money
Gotta disagree with you and SKob. I know on paper a Craig/Nava platoon replaces Napoli pretty well, but I feel like it might not be as effective as expected for a few reasons.
Napoli is a far superior defender than both, though some of that is hard to quantify (picking bad throws, stopping screaming liners, etc) whereas Craig and especially Nava have been poor there.
Napoli also signed what was perceived as a team friendly extension so trading him might have some untold effects there. He’s also likely to hit for more power next year as he recovers from the hand injury.
He’s a middle of the order RH bat and was an effective cleanup hitter on a World Series winner. He is good. Trading Napoli AND Cespedes changes Boston’s offseason from drastically improving a poor offense to a much more marginal improvement offensively in exchange for a #2 pitcher and a bullpen arm when they could almost certainly get a pitcher of similar quality for JUST Cespedes.
As a Sox fan I hate this trade. Having actually watched Allen Craig play last year I wouldn’t project him for 15wrc+ let alone over 100. He is so completely done I want nothing to do with him as more than a bench bat. People might say injury but both the team and player insisted there was none and his bat speed looked slower than a tortoise.
Yeah I think the Nats would like someone better than Miller in return for both Zimm and Clippard, even with the wildcard Hultzen added to the mix. It’s not that far fetched, but I don’t think they pull the trigger for a 2b who may not be perceived to be *that* much of an upgrade over Espinosa.
In a vacuum, I agree the marginal value is important. But plugging Zimmerman into the rotation, while clearing the roster logjam, represents a huge value.