What Do the Giants Do Now?

Whether or not the deal for Pablo Sandoval was a good deal, the Giants are now faced with the unenviable task of finding a replacement in a bad market for third basemen. The good news is that they probably have close to $100 million they can spend on finding a solution. What might be their best way forward?

Let’s spend their Pablo money. Let’s add five million because they probably would have spent that anyway had Pablo returned. So what can the Giants do at third, left and in the rotation with that kind of money?

The easy answer is Chase Headley. He’s the only above-average third baseman left on the market, however, and interest is hot and heavy from the Yankees, the Indians have their toe in the water, the Jays could use an infielder, and the White Sox are currently projected to have a below-average situation at third base.

If the Giants do end up with Headley at a price anywhere near the crowdsourced guess (four years, $56 million), they’d still have five to six million in Pablo money left over. By Steamer they’d already be ahead of Pablo’s projections, too. They could then use that money to find a veteran starting pitcher in the mold of Tim Hudson — with Tim Lincecum still under contract, they could even take more of a risk. Brett Anderson, perhaps? Otherwise, safer options with less upside include Kyle Kendrick and Aaron Harang. Then you’d have a little money left over to lure a right-handed veteran outfielder to town — Torii Hunter?

But what if they don’t get Chase Headley? Things get way iffier, although Giants have to hope that this comic from Bryan Murphy at McCovey Chronicles isn’t portraying the right way forward — it’s bleak, considering Joaquin Arias was below replacement last year and hasn’t yet accrued a win in over a thousand plate appearances over his career.

The next-best thirdbaseman on the market might be Alberto Callaspo. He’s projected to be worth a win next year despite iffy defense and below-average power — mostly based on making contact. With a slight rebound in batted ball luck, he could be a stop-gap solution at a small price. He wasn’t projected by the crowd, but let’s say he can be had for a one-year make-good contract that was similar to the one Mike Morse signed last year.

That still leaves $13 million or more in Pablo money, and a hole in left field. If that seems hefty for Nori Aoki, and a Melky Cabrera reunion seems unlikely, would the team go to the mat for Nelson Cruz? The crowdsource median was three years and $45, and he’s a power hitter that can play left field for a bit, so at least he fits in a general way. If you want a name that has already been linked to the Giants, then Yasmani Tomas is your left fielder. Kiley McDaniel thought he’d get ten to fifteen million a year, so he fits this plan. Then the team has to look for a fifth or sixth starter in the value bin. Let’s say Colby Lewis for fun.

But just because there’s a hole at third base doesn’t mean the solution needs to come from third base. The crowd likes Asdrubal Cabrera for three years and $33 million, and by moving him to second base in Washington, the Nationals already signaled to the market that he may not be a shortstop any longer. He’s projected for a win and a half, and that’s with bad defensive value. Perhaps he really takes to third base. At the very least, he has experience playing in a park that suppresses offense.

Now with around fifteen million left, the Giants could improve the offense (that number might fit Aoki, for example) but the better bet is that they look at the rotation maybe. After all, the postseason rotation was Madison Bumgarner, Madison Bumgarner, Madison Bumgarner and watch a James Garner rerun until Madison Bumgarner can pitch again. With that type of cash, you might be able to lure Brandon McCarthy (three years and 36 million from the crowd) into town. Left field might have to go to a right-handed power bat on a reclamation project, like it did last year. Corey Hart?

There’s a rumor out there that the Giants may spend that Pablo money somewhere else entirely: Jon Lester. The median average annual value on the crowdsource was $22 million, so we wouldn’t officially have any money over for third or left. The newest rumors say $25 million on the nose, but they’ll have to fill left and third with someone, probably. So let’s try some low-cost options like Jonny Gomes (to platoon with Gregor Blanco) and Kelly Johnson, even if we’re over budget.

We don’t know how much money each of these permutations will end up costing the Giants — in reality we probably spent more than $25 million per outcome — but at least they’re in the ballpark of what they might have spent with Pablo in the fold. It also isn’t fair to compare this just to Pablo’s production, considering each plan has three players in it.

But, let’s just sum up what the projections think of each of our different plans.

The Giants did lose out on Pablo Sandoval. But they also gained back $20 million that they can spend on the team. That money can be used to upgrade left field, the starting rotation, or third base. Who knows how exactly they will do it, but at least there are a few different plans that make sense. It’s not quite time to panic.