FG on Fox: The Risks and Rewards of Holding Cole Hamels
Let’s begin with what I hope will be uncontroversial statements. The Phillies, at present, are a bad baseball team. Arguably the worst baseball team, as long as we’re only talking about 2015. The farm system’s improving, but the big-league roster’s declining, and while every year there are teams that surprise, I’d be surprised if the Phillies won 75 games. It’s not going to be pretty, and even the most optimistic fans are wondering if contention might be feasible three years from now. Rebuilds suck. Just how they are.
And the Phillies have Cole Hamels, who is good. He’s actually been very good, for a very long time, and he’s not old. His remaining contract terms are reasonable, in that, if Hamels were available for just his contract, every team that could afford him would place a call. A trade market for Cole Hamels does exist. Just because nothing has happened doesn’t mean there aren’t teams who would like for something to happen.
Yet, increasingly, it looks like the Phillies won’t be moving Hamels this winter. One point of evidence: the Phillies haven’t yet moved Hamels this winter. Another point of evidence: the Phillies, reportedly, are sticking to their high demands, leading to this quote in a post by Rob Bradford:
According to a source familiar with the Phillies’ thinking on the matter, Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro and his club have been “unrealistic in their expectations” in regard to a return on Hamels.
As they say, situations are fluid. Hamels could, in theory, get dealt any minute. Some team might become unusually desperate. Maybe a team that feels like it’s on the outside with Max Scherzer and James Shields. Amaro, certainly, is selling Hamels as a rare ace you could get today. But, there would be a lot of ground to make up if Hamels were to get traded before spring training. Negotiations with different teams have been described as a staredown. It’s becoming increasingly likely that the Phillies will hang on to Hamels, putting him back on the market in July. After all, there’s no deadline by which the Phillies have to bid Hamels farewell. They could even potentially keep him through the end of his career, given his status, talent, and popularity. The Phillies never have to trade Cole Hamels, which is allowing them to be patient.
That patience has upsides and downsides. For the sake of this article, I would like to set aside matters of marketing and fan morale. I simply want to talk about Cole Hamels’ trade value. The Phillies have determined, so far, no one has offered enough for their ace. So they disagree with where Hamels’ trade value has been in the offseason. But what would happen to Hamels’ value if he were to be available in July? Might the Phillies then be better able to recover the haul they’ve been seeking?
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
It seems like suicide to hang onto him when the organization is going nowhere fast, although holding on until the deadline makes a little sense, sell when everyone is ready to buy…. just wonder if Ruin Tomorrow will be smart enough to take the best deal offered and not hold out for something unrealistic.
If the Phillies aren’t getting what they need then they should not even consider the idea of moving Hamels.
A trade of Cole Hamels looks like this:
Hamels plus $96 million to Boston for:
Mookie Betts
Xander Bogaerts
Blake Swihart
Rafael Devers
The players are not negotiable. The Red Sox want Hamels. He’s a star. He’s “Collywood””as Jimmy Rollins nicknamed him. He’s a cover guy, a face of the franchise.
You want that? You’re going to pay.
The Rangers have an interesting group of prospects.
Rougned Odor
Jorge Alfaro
Nomar Mazara
The Rangers want money? OK. Then the Phillies also want Joey Gallo
There’s a deal to be made here with either team. Texas is probably the easiest since Hamels doesn’t have them blocked.
If neither is going to pay then the Phillies should keep Hamels. He is the face of the franchise.
Yoan Moncada is a franchise player. HE should be the Phillies sole focus until he is signed. Moncada is worth whatever his price is as his bat plays anywhere and Moncada has the athleticism and skill to play anywhere on the diamond.
The Phillies have done absolutely nothing to achieve a return to the playoffs by 2018. It’s not possible to see them in the playoffs in 2022 based on what they have done so far and the egregious state of their farm system.
Comcast gave John Middleton $6 Billion for THIS?
His son the “Invested Phan” is on Twitter: @johnmiddleton
ASK HIM
_
Caricature.
The troll is half right
The Phillies SHOULD pay as much as possible of the salary of the guys they’re trading to try to get maximum return. They have the money, I totally agree.
BUT, there’s no way Boston’s or other large-payroll teams are going to forfeit a motherlode of prospects for Hamels just because he’s salary-free. Maybe if they talk with the Padres, A’s, or Royals, offering the extra money, they can pull some A-list prospects back. But even then, the best you’d get would be on the order of Swihart + Owens + Devers. Guys like Bogaerts and Betts are actually already MLB contributors.