Finding a Fair Price for Chris Sale
This deadline has, thus far, been pretty boring. When Andrew Cashner and Eduardo Nunez are headlining notable trades, you know it’s a slow market. There is one guy who could change all that though, and could have a significant impact on how the postseason shakes out. That guy, of course, is Chris Sale.
The White Sox ace is a legitimate difference maker; even with just a couple months left in the season, he still projects to add another +2 WAR to whatever team he’s on, not counting what he’ll do in the postseason. He’s a high-end player in the prime of his career, and since he’s signed for three more years after this one, he’s also one of the most valuable assets in the sport.
When we did the Trade Value series a few weeks ago, I ranked Sale as the 15th most valuable trade chip in the game. Here is the table that we used to summarize his value.
| Team Control WAR Total | +17.1 |
| Guaranteed Dollars | $12.0 M |
| Team Control Through | 2019 |
| Previous Rank | #6 |
| Year | Age | Projected WAR | Contract Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | +6.1 | $12.0 M |
| 2018 | 29 | +5.7 | $12.5 M |
| 2019 | 30 | +5.3 | $13.5 M |
Keep in mind that the Team Control WAR line was just looking at future years, so it doesn’t include the remainder of 2016; with that included, Sale is pushing up against a projected +20 WAR during the rest of his contract. Using our Contract Estimating tool, we can come up with something like an expected market value for that level of projected performance.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Contract |
| 2016 | 27 | 2.0 | $8.0 M | $16.0 M |
| 2017 | 28 | 6.1 | $8.4 M | $51.2 M |
| 2018 | 29 | 5.7 | $8.8 M | $50.1 M |
| 2019 | 30 | 5.3 | $9.3 M | $49.3 M |
| Totals | 19.1 | $166.9 M |
Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
Now, this tool is a blunt-force object, and doesn’t take a bunch of factors into account; for instance, the deadline premium isn’t included here, and it’s pretty clear that contending teams would value the rest of Sale’s 2016 performance at more than $16 million, so that part is clearly too low. On the other hand, teams have chosen to reduce the annual salary of high-end players by compensating them with long-term deals and opt-outs instead, so we don’t necessarily know that teams would value Sale as a $50 million per year player in order to account for the shorter duration of his contract and the fact that the options are held by the team, not the player. That $167M estimate is just that, and not a precise figure; I’d say it’s pretty easy to argue the number down as low as $150M, and up as high as $175M, but his value is likely somewhere in that range.
Over the rest of his contract, Sale will be paid about $41 million. This is a guy with at least $100 million in value above and beyond his contract, and probably closer to $125 million. You remember that Aroldis Chapman package? Sale is worth something like two to three times the value the Yankees got back in that deal. You can see why the White Sox haven’t really wanted to trade him.
But there are contenders with the young talent to put that kind of package together. Let’s take a look at some of the options, and try and eyeball how they’d offer the White Sox $125 million in value in order to get them to move their ace.
Julio Urias is certainly a strong starting point. Pitchers ranked in the top 10 on prospect lists are worth something like $70 million, and given that Urias is closer to #1 than #10 and has already pitched well in the big leagues, he’s probably worth a bit more than that. I’d eyeball his value at around $80 million, meaning he gets you most of the way to Sale by himself. But the Dodgers would need to add some additional value as well.
Cody Bellinger, for instance, would be an interesting second piece. He ranked #24 on BA’s midseason list, and #43 on MLB.com’s list, so he’s probably worth something like $40-$50 million. Bellinger — a kid who just turned 21 and is already hitting well in Double-A, and has some potential value as a quality defensive first baseman — is the kind of higher-floor option who could round out a package led by a boom-or-bust asset in a 19-year-old pitching prospect.
If the White Sox preferred an outfielder instead, Alex Verdugo ranked #44 on BA’s list and #58 on MLB.com’s update, and is also already succeeding in Double-A at a young age. KATOH absolutely loves Verdugo, for what its worth, and if the White Sox could get him as a second piece along with Urias, this deal would have tremendous upside for the White Sox.
Realistically, Sale wouldn’t be traded for just two players, as teams like to get quantity back in these deals as well. So add in some lower-level lottery ticket types, or maybe a big league ready depth arm like Carlos Frias, and the Dodgers would have the kind of offer on the table that provides enough value that the White Sox should pull the trigger on a deal.
So the White Sox would be right to demand either in a deal, but even Sale isn’t worth both, so the Red Sox would have to pick which of the two they wanted to keep around, and then add some additional value beyond giving up a terrific young hitter. If Benintendi was the main piece, Rafael Devers (#41 BA/#25 MLB) would be a reasonable piece to add, putting the Red Sox package on part with a Urias/Bellinger or Urias/Verdugo offer from Los Angeles.
If Moncada is the guy they’re sending to Chicago, though, Devers’ value probably pushes the deal past what Sale is worth; his value gets you most of the way to Sale, so the second piece could be a higher risk guy like hard-throwing righty Michael Kopech (#93 BA/#83 MLB), since back-end Top 100 pitching prospects are worth about $15 million. Toss in some sweeteners on top of that, and the White Sox would at least have to think about it, as Moncada and Kopech could give them a pretty great return.
The Rangers have enough young talent to mix-and-match in case the White Sox don’t like those specific players. Jurickson Profar could work his way into the deal, for instance, though his value is tougher to peg because he’s already going to be in his arbitration years after this season, so it’s not a lot of long-term value for a young unproven player. But if Texas really wants Sale, they have the pieces to do keep up with Boston and Los Angeles, and he would improve their rotation more than he would any other team in the race.
It wouldn’t be an easy group to give up, as Gallo and Brinson could both be everyday players for the Rangers quite soon, but both are also high-risk assets, and the Rangers don’t really have a “safe” young player to offer like LA or Boston, so they’d probably have to try and overwhelm the White Sox with potential. That’s why they’d probably have to put a third legitimate top 100 prospect in the deal, in a guy like Ortiz, and even then, the White Sox might prefer to get a little more value by getting a better top guy than a better third piece.
Of course, we’re spitballing as outsiders here, and we don’t know what the offers for Sale have actually been. Given the lack of pitching available, perhaps the White Sox should charge even more than this, citing the Chapman deal as proof of the insane value of pitching upgrades right now. But as a .500ish team without a clear path to contention, if an offer like one of these is on the table, I’d suggest that Rick Hahn and his staff should strongly consider taking it. With each of the three potential deals, they’d get guys back who could start for them in 2017, and if they hit on the second piece in the deal as well, they could end up not much worse off than they would be by keeping Sale, plus add a lot of long-term value to the franchise.
Sale is worth an exceptional return. Thankfully for the White Sox, there are three contenders who could use him who can offer exceptional returns. I know a deal is still considered unlikely, but there are enough potential fits here that I think Sale should be wearing another uniform by Monday afternoon.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I get projections and they aren’t to be totally ignored, but in my mind Sale is definitely worth two of Boston top 3
Moncada and Benintendi are probably among the 4 most valuable prospects in the (Bregman, Moncada, Benintendi Urias)
To make to simple, Moncada and Benintendi are both 65 FV talents (al least according to MLB). Most farm systems don’t even have one, let alone two. So for instance, Moncada/Benintedni should be a whole lot more valuable than say Urias/De Leon or Verdugo. So simply saying “two of their top 3” does not take into account the quality of those prospects. The Redsox may be the only farm system that has 2 top 10 prospects
I do realize their prospect status. There median outcomes still aren’t that of 65 FV. And given even in small sample what Urias has shown he is a tier above all prospects in minors0. Urias alone shouldn’t be enough either.
1 year of Miguel Cabrera netted Miller, Maybin, and relief on Willis’s contract. There’s no reason for the Sox to take less than Moncada and Benitendi.
They’ll be able to get any of the packages Dave describes next year.
I agree with you completely. If the Boston Red Sox want to add Chris Sale to the top of their rotation, then Benintendi and Moncada are coming to Chicago. I’m a die hard Cubs fan and never root for the White Sox, but Sale’s value right now is extremely enhanced due to the dearth of the starting pitcher at the deadline. You also have take into account the risk that accompanies prospects regardless of their future projections. Byron Buxton was the No. 1 prospect in baseball for three years and deemed the second coming of Willie Mayes.
Prepare for the onslaught of comments from Red Sox, Rangers and Dodgers fans about how this analysis severely undervalues their hometeam prospects.
Though not a fan of any of those teams, I’m as guilty as anyone of worshiping at the altar of potential with baseball prospects. Love the draft, love to follow minor league coverage, love the entire scouting industry. Even so, I can’t see an argument for this article *under*valuing prospects. Really, it seems much closer to the opposite.
I understand all the caveats about blunt force tools and estimates, but e.g. the idea that Joey Gallo is worth ~40% of Chris Sale just doesn’t compute for me. Similarly, the idea that any two top prospects (even a pair as highly ranked as Moncada & Benintendi) are worth *more* than Sale just doesn’t seem like it can be true.
To be clear, I’m not making an argument here. It’s likely my first impression here is incorrect. But Chris Sale is an undisputed ace – among the very rarest of talents in baseball – with three more years of cheap control. He is what almost no prospects – including top prospects – ever become: a star. I have to think the list is short of people who, starting a franchise from scratch, would choose two top prospects over 3.5 years of prime Chris Sale. The list has to be even shorter when you’re not building from scratch but adding to a team on the fringe of World Series contention.
Wholeheartedly agreed, although that’s mostly because Gallo has an extremely risky profile with a steep downside that could easily crater his value. On the other hand, Julio Urias has an extremely safe profile (as much as any pitching prospect can anyway) that makes me feel like his value is being underestimated here. I don’t think that I would trade Urias straight up for Sale, although given that the cost savings associated with team control of elite young players isn’t as important for the Dodgers as other teams, they probably should.
It’s not that Moncada + Benintendi will be worth more wins than Chris Sale, but rather that the wins they do provide come at such a cheap cost that it leaves a substantial amount of additional money available. How well that surplus money is spent determines whether or not the strategy works. Some teams completely waste the surplus, as the Angels did with Trout.
20 up votes and 1 down vote? Crazy.
Surprising argument imo, seems to me a ‘Herschel Walker trade’ style argument, an anachronistic and anti-calibration mantra,- i.e. ‘no amount of draft picks can be worth a 1,000 yard rusher, doesn’t compute for a true star.’
Sale has a 3.75 xFIP, his fastball is down a mile and a half, and he’s moved away a bit from his best pitch in recent years (his changeup). He’s got the k-rate, bb-rate, and XFIP of Kevin Gausman. His 29.8% hard-hit rate is a career high- 3% above the norm. His K rate is down 8%, when has that ever not been significant? The ‘he’s pitching less impressively on purpose’ narrative isn’t hugely convincing.
Sale is obviously great and worth a ton, but I’m shocked that any large group in the fangraphs community would feel that he is worth more than Moncada and Benintendi. The premise of the argument that even #1 overall and other top 10 prospects (that are hitters) rarely become a star is way off- star hit rate is near 50% for similar top prospects.
I’m pretty sure near every GM in the game realizes that if you are getting Moncada and Benintendi, you are getting some 5-6 WAR seasons of true prime (young 20s) at minimal cost. Given the attrition rate of pitchers, I don’t think any measured approach would put the value of Sale particularly close to Moncada and Benintendi. The game is getting ever younger, and late 20s is no longer true prime, no matter a player’s narrative. A team acquiring Sale today has a fair chance of paying for his actual prime (young-mid 20s) but acquriing his decline (late 20s): albeit declining from an extremely high level.
I agree with everything you said. You seem quite intelligent. Good points on Sale – nobody is talking about how he is having a down year, for some reason. Also a great point on the fact that mid-20s seems to be the new prime, rather than late-20s. I have said this multiple times on other baseball forums and nobody buys it.
Eh… I’m a Red Sox fan and I think this analysis probably slightly OVER values Kopech and under-values Urias. But not by much. Sale is really really really good. And he’s getting better. And he’s cheap.
With that said, I doubt the Red Sox are in that kind of market. Rodriguez is too valuable to bump from the rotation at this point, and all four other starters have recent track records suggesting that they’re in for a strong stretch run. Sale would undoubtedly improve the staff, as he would improve everyone’s staff, but he’s not as much of an upgrade for them as he would be for the Rangers or the Dodgers.
Overall, I expect the Dodgers to land him, if anyone does. They’re starting to get to the point where they need to think about life after Kershaw, and the smart thing to do is find a few long-term complementary pieces to build around Seager. The problem is that they already have a player who could be almost as good as Sale for twice as long and half the money in AAA, and arguably that’s more valuable to them than the short-term tradeoff of Chris Sale.
The Rangers are probably in the mix, but I don’t think Sale is worth ENOUGH to them that they would trade away their future for a TOR arm twice in two years. Also their division is far less competitive than the AL East or NL West, so I don’t see it as quite a slam dunk.
Basically, I’m skeptical that he gets traded at all. The White Sox undoubtedly want to trade him, but all of the contenders that can afford him either don’t need him ENOUGH or would need to give up pieces that they need more.
“And he’s getting better.”
He has the highest FIP, highest xFIP, and lowest k/9 of his career. He may bounce back, but hard to say he’s getting better based on this year’s numbers.
You have to take into account that he’s gone on record saying that he’s intentionally pitching to contact more. Could be just lip service, but cannot be completely ignored.
So does that mean this is his new “normal”? If he is truly changed the way he’s pitching, then this year should weigh more heavily on his future performance, and that doesn’t favor the White Sox.
The drop in strikeouts have not affected run prevention. There’s no guarantee that he’s necessarily developed into a low-BABIP pitcher, but you cannot dismiss the possibility, given his command and stuff.
The fact that he did talk about a change in approach early in the season makes me less concerned about the drop in strikeouts than I otherwise would be.
Sale is allowing the highest percentage of hard contact in his career and the lowest percentage of soft contact since 2012. He’s also being pulled at a career high rate and has his lowest fastball velocity since 2012. Basically, it’s a sea of red flags that should be telling the White Sox to sell now.
> The drop in strikeouts have not affected run prevention.
Then why does Sale have his highest career FIP and xFIP in 2016? The drop in strikeouts has coincided with worse run prevention, which seems to suggest the drop has affected run prevention.
“Pitching to contact” is only a good strategy if the extra contact are outs and the pitcher is able to get more outs and less runs per start. Given the facts that Sale has the highest FIP and xFIP of his career, his strategy seems to be failing in the run prevention aspect. In this case, it looks like “pitching to contact” means “pitching worse”, or (given his lower average fastball velocity this season) “pitching through injury”.
He’s basically exactly a year younger than Kershaw. I don’t know that he is any longer term an asset than Kershaw.
Why do they need to prepare for “life after Kershaw”? Even with his opt-out in a couple of years, he’s not going anywhere.
Back problems.
Surgery is a non-zero possibility.
Not a good thing to hear.
Sure, health problems are scary, but there’s no reason to think Kershaw’s career is about to come to an end, which is what the above poster is implying.
The thing is…it could be.
Back surgery can end careers and on occassion it has.
At minimum he could be out for all of 2017 and beyond if it comes to that.
Dodgers would be stupid not to consider the worst scenario, especially with no front line starters in this year’s Free Agent class. So if they can get their hands onSale or Archer they have to.
I think these are examples of a “fair price” for Sale. But I don’t think Sale is going to be traded for a “fair price”, gonna take more to land him.
Which is why I think he is he is staying put for this year. That and the fact that the White Sox could legitimately make a push for the play-offs in 2017. It could also fall apart for them in 2017. Given that both outcomes are in play you have to ask, how much trade value does Sale lose if Chicago holds on to him for one more year. Generally, I would say the answer is negligible. This isn’t a case like the Braves being stubborn with Teheran. Sale will likely still command a premium package of prospects at the dealine int 2017, where as the Braves may find themselves regretting not taking advantage of this season’s weak market.
A huge part of Sale’s appeal is his contract, so Chicago would have used up ~30% of his value by waiting until this time next year to trade him, and that’s assuming he doesn’t get injured or suffer a decline in performance.
This right here. The White Sox are fully in their rights to demand whatever package they want, and to not trade him. He’s an ace, and an underpaid one. There’s a lot of value there.
However, the White Sox, with their recent promotions of Anderson and Fulmer, are probably a bottom 5 farm system. Even with those guys added, they have not made up ground in the playoff race. If they chose not to deal him, and hold on to him this offseason, and then find themselves in the same spot next year, they will have lost a lot of trade value. It’s hard to say how much, but they would need to be sure they aren’t passing up on a good deal this year.
“A huge part of Sale’s appeal is his contract, so Chicago would have used up ~30% of his value”
All the research on the deadline premium, etc. shows that the premium on deadline performance / discount rate on future performance is absolutely enormous. By holding onto Chris Sale, the White Sox would be using up 30% of his contract length, but they’d only be using up about 15% of the value.
Chapman got a $50M return for 2 months. If he’d had an extra year on his contract, he wouldn’t net $200M. He might not even have netted $70M. The relationship between contract length and trade value is very non-linear.
We’re comparing his value at the deadline this season versus his value at the deadline next season, so there would be absolutely no change in any “deadline premium.”
They’ll be able to get any of these packages for him this time next year, as well.
Chris Sale isn’t getting traded this year, because no one is willing to pay enough for it to make sense for the White Sox.
I wouldn’t rule out Odor or Mazara in a Texas deal either. I’m sure those are the first players Chicago is asking for.
Supposedly the White Sox want Gallo + Mazara. I’m a big fan of Mazara, but I make that deal in a heartbeat if I’m the Rangers.
I ask for Abreu back, if they want both, since that takes two bats out of our lineup… Gallo + Mazara + 2 of Ortiz/Mendez/Tate for Sale + Abreu?
Hard to judge Abreu’s value. The contract isn’t huge, but unless he gets back to mashing the ball, he’s useless.
If he’s useless, why would you want to trade for him?
Note that I said “IF HE DOESN’T GET BACK TO MASHING, then he’s useless”… Maybe he finds a mechanical fix and starts hitting again. He’s been below replacement level for over 400 PA, now – and that’s WITH an above average BABIP.
Texas would be taking the risk that he’s now a 1 WAR 1B/DH in hopes that he returns to his former self.
I think that a B+ pitching prospect plus a B-/C+ low minors bat is close to fair value at this point.
Lots of down votes… Understandable, as Abreu made Cameron’s top 50 trade list recently… But what is his value right now? He’s hitting like a middle infielder and statcast data says that it isn’t just bad luck. With the way he’s running the bases and playing defense, he needs to run a 390ish wOBA just to be a league average 1B.
As a Ranger fan, I think that’s about fair. I do wonder – with Abreu not looking like the slugger that he initially was (but on a decent contract) and Texas losing Prince, would the Sox include Abreu in a deal (considering they get a replacement in Gallo)?
What about Gallo, Brinson, and 2 of Ortiz/Mendez/Tate for Sale and Abreu?
Does Abreu have more value than a top-100 SP prospect? Does Texas need to include another piece like a Ronald Guzman or YY (the shortstop whose name I can’t even close to spell).
Sox get two blue-chippers for the 2017 lineup and two top-100 arms.
Rangers get a huge rotation bump, hope that Abreu can turn it around (without paying him a huge amount), and try to re-sign Desmond to cover CF.
do we think he is a little worse now though ? 3.70 FIP/xFIP this year? is that not worth a mention, i’m just asking.
Yes, but if Chris Sale was still as dominant as he was in ’14/’15 then I don’t think we would be having this conversation anyway.
Would DeLeon, Holmes and Verdugo offer value comparable to Urias/Verdugo? Two top pitching prospects spreads the risk and could double the pleasure.
No.
lol, I see Damaso has finally found this column. Funny how every single one of my comments immediately gets a downvote when he shows up. ; )
i’ve never downvoted a comment in my life.
In fact i’m pretty sure i’ve up voted your comments before.
My bad, then. It was around the time that you posted in the comments section that every single one of my posts received a downvote. That’s my problem with the concept, that it doesn’t differentiate between a genuine judgment on the quality of the comment and any personal animus toward the person who commented.
The more personal animus there is to me, the more each upvote feels earned.
What are the odds that Sale actually gives you those four years of value without getting hurt, or losing more velocity and becoming ineffective? There’s maybe, optimistically, a 60-70% chance of him getting through the next four years without dropping off the map. Realistically, not even than that: would you expect a guy whose velocity dropped two ticks this year and whose K-rate dropped from 11 to 8 to be a 5+ win player in four years?
Sale’s value at around 100-110M seems more reasonable. For me he’s not worth Moncada. He’s probably still worth Urias and Gallo, but those aren’t home runs.
There’s maybe, optimistically, a 60-70% chance of him getting through the next four years without dropping off the map.
This seems completely baseless.
Probably 80-90% baseless, but there’s some detail to consider here. His velocity does seem to have dropped this season and he’s been maddeningly inconsistent of late. The fact that we’ve never heard a peep about the White Sox moving Sale until he’s suddenly showing some cracks in the armor is somewhat disconcerting.
Wait, it’s completely baseless to think that’s there’s a 30-40% chance of a pitcher having a DL stint over the next four years? You have 100% confidence that he’ll get through four years as a 5-in player every year, even given his velo drop and diminished results *already this year*? No risk at all of something that is already happening continuing to happen?
Wait, it’s completely baseless to think that’s there’s a 30-40% chance of a pitcher having a DL stint over the next four years?
I didn’t call the idea that Sale could hit the DL baseless. I called what you actually said baseless. And I quoted your words specifically so as to avoid the confusion you are pretending to experience now.
Here’s what you did not say:
There’s maybe, optimistically, a 60-70% chance of him getting through the next four years without having a DL stint.
Here’s what you did say, which seems completely baseless:
There’s maybe, optimistically, a 60-70% chance of him getting through the next four years without dropping off the map.
Think about the conversation we’re having. “Dropping off the map” means “dropping off the map of pitchers who are worth six years of Yoan Moncada plus etc.” Stop pretending not to understand that.
Now: the list of pitchers who have put up eight consecutive seasons of ~5 win baseball is vanishingly small. Felix Hernandez was on it, but is breaking. Clayton Kershaw might get there (get well soon, Clayton). If Chris Sale does what these projections say he will, he’ll be eight years into his career without breaking. That is rare, and projecting that it will happen without adjusting for the risk that he breaks is foolish. He might stay healthy and elite, but most pitchers probably don’t.
Now, quote-mine away, but that’s what I meant, and you ought to be able, unless you’re on the autism spectrum, to infer what I meant from the context. We’re asking whether a pitcher is worth trading 160M worth of prospects away. “Dropping off the map” obviously means dropping off the map of guys who are worth that. A few DL stints, a couple more lost ticks, a Tommy John surgery, anything like that, and you lose that bet. You have to account for the risk of such things, and these projections don’t.
“Dropping off the map” means “dropping off the map of pitchers who are worth six years of Yoan Moncada plus etc.
No, that isn’t what that phrase usually means.That’s why almost no one who read your comment(s) interpreted it that way.
They had good reason not to, since the sentence before that phrase (the very first sentence of your comment) made clear the type of downturn you were suggesting:
What are the odds that Sale actually gives you those four years of value without getting hurt, or losing more velocity and becoming ineffective?
“Becoming ineffective” is a much stronger standard than “not worth multiple elite prospects”, which is what you now say you meant.
—–
That aside, I have no interest in holding you to a position you aren’t taking.
If all you’re saying is that we cannot be certain that Sale will live up to his projections over the next 3 years, that’s a reasonable observation. I don’t know if anybody here disagrees with it. MLBers carry risk too. That risk is typically priced-in to any valuation, just as it is with prospects.
So that we’re clear about what we’re talking about, you think that it’s *completely baseless* to think that there’s a 30% or so risk of an elite pitcher ceasing to be elite over a four-year period? Because that’s what I meant.
If you’re not sure what it meant, it’s right there in the original post: “What are the odds that Sale actually gives you those four years of value without getting hurt, or losing more velocity and becoming ineffective?” <—– That's what dropping off the map meant. Completely baseless to think that there's a 30% chance of that happening? What's your basis for thinking it's baseless? Has every pitcher you've ever seen stayed the same over their whole careers? I don't get it. I think you're deliberately pretending not to understand.
Even if there were no red flags, the odds of any given pitcher breaking are greater than zero over a four-year stretch. Say it’s 10% even if there are no markers. Now, add to that the fact that there are markers: velocity drop, sharply diminished results. Now, what’s baseless again about inferring from that that there’s a 30% chance that he stops being elite over the next four years? You’re 100% confident he won’t break down? What odds would you put on it that he won’t? Zero? 10%? Don’t give a baseless number now.
Those WAR projections for 2017, 2018, and 2019 are insane. Why would anyone predict that the second, third, and fourth best seasons of Sale’s career would come in his age 28-30 seasons? That’s projecting him to do better in each of those years than he’s projected to do in this one.
A 5/4/3 projection [using the ZiPS RoS] comes up with 5.5 fWAR for next year. Above they aged him 0.4 fWAR per year, so maybe 17.4 fWAR total would be more accurate?
ZiPS is projecting his strikeout rate to return to 2014 levels. While I definitely see some improvement over 2016’s dip, I doubt that he gets all the way back to a ~10.5 K/9.
Kind of agree. But change it to ~ 5 WAR/yr… (he’s on pace to average better than that for past 3 seasons)… removes ~2 WAR total… subtract ~$16M from the total… and the story is still pretty much the same.
While you’re correct about the average, do you think we’re ever going to see that 2015 Sale again? I don’t. I’m fine if you want to start Sale at a 5 WAR projection for 2017, although I personally would start slightly lower (~4.8), but realistically we have to go down a bit from there in his age 29 and 30 seasons. If we start him at 5 and apply Dave’s -0.4 annual adjustment then the four year total (including this season’s 2) would be 15.8 WAR. That puts the remaining value of his contract at around $135.5 million, and given the injury risk for pitchers, even that may be ambitious.
To be fair then you should also apply this same adjustment based on your opinion of injury risk for pitchers to each of the pitching prospects. And considering how often prospects (even top one’s) fail to ever meet their projected performance levels, you should adjust the prospects values down again.
Both of those are already factored in. The WAR estimates are based on historical production of prospects who were similarly ranked.
I agree with you. Those projections seem a bit aggressive even if we assume that Sale is healthy for the next 4 years.
I don’t see how those numbers are a realistic weighted average projection for Sale once you factor in the risk of injury. For that to be the case, we’d have to think that the percentage chance of Sale increasing his performance to Kershaw-level dominance is roughly the same as the chance of him losing significant value from injury due to a combination of time on the DL and decreased effectiveness. I’m struggling with that because the latter has to far more likely than the former, right?
Makes me wonder how the historical aging curve used to build projection models factors in pitchers who struggle some early in their careers but improve at some point. Whereas I’d argue that Sale, who already has 5 years in the majors as a healthy and highly productive starter, has a lot more downside than upside compared to his past couple years of performance. That’s due to injury risk if nothing else.
The entire aging scale needs to be shifted younger. More players are having All-Star-caliber seasons in their early and mid-20s and more players are falling off from All-Star-caliber production in their late-20s.
If Sale is dealt, then I assume the Sox window for contention moves to the prime of the headliners of the Sale deal. If you get a Gallo/Moncada/Benintendi etc, then is the window to be a real contender around 2019-2020? If so, shouldn’t they start shopping Quintana, Frazier, Abreu, all RP, and possibly Eaton, too? That way your top prospects aren’t hitting their prime just as your best veterans are out the door!
This is a good point. The White Sox are both a non-contender and a bottom third organization in terms of prospects. There was reason to believe the lineup would be better this year, and Abreu’s decline has been a major factor for the abysmal state of run production. Nor does the lineup look like it will improve next year considering the age of the 3-4-5 hitters. Maybe Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo are in the cards this offseason, but if that is not Hahn’s plan, if Reinsdorf doesn’t want to throw more money at the problem, and given Sale’s change in pitching profile, this is an opportune time to trade and push the window back as it were, so that there is a plausible strategy for winning.
This dilemma typifies the organization for the past decade, and Sale’s protest is understandable, even as it seemed crazy. It sucks to compete again and again in a losing situation.
If Jon Daniels gets someone to bite on Joey Gallo as the primary trade chip in any deal, mail him the EOY trophy now.
I dunno… He could be no one, or Russ Branyan, but he could still be Adam Dunn with better defense, or maybe even Jim Thome. There’s a ton of risk for sure. No one with a career strikeout rate over 25% on the leaderboards has more than 20 career WAR, except Dunn and Stanton who are both just under 28% (and Napoli, who got a boost from catching, and M. Upton, who got a boost from defense.) Thome was at 24.7% career. He has to get the K’s under 30% to be anything, I think, but he’s not 23 yet.
He hasn’t even got the K’s under 30% in AAA.
Chris Davis is knocking on the door of 20 career WAR with a high K rate. 16.7 career WAR with a 31.2% career K rate.
Chris Davis also never had a K% above 30 in the minors.
Joey Gallo doesn’t have anything resembling Adam Dunn or Chris Davis’s contact abilities.
Using a fixed K rate to compare players from far lower K rate eras to Gallo is foolish. K rates have nearly doubled since the 70s, tripled since pre WWII. Up over 30% since the 90s.
If Gallo has a 30% K rate in todays game it’s similar to a 20% rate in almost any other era.
If the market (or perhaps just the Yankees, per Heyman’s report) are valuing Andrew Miller’s trade value as 3x Chapman’s, then calling Chris Sale’s trade value “two to three times” Chapman’s feels like a vast underestimate.
If Andrew Miller could get even twice the return for Chapman, the Yankees would have already accepted that offer. Your suspicion about three times Chapman being Yankees propaganda is correct.
Well, they just did get twice as much for Miller as they did for Chapman…
No one who follows prospects would say that the Miller package was “twice” the Chapman package, much less three times it. CLS, you really need to stop commenting on prospects because you just haven’t followed them enough to comment intelligently.
…or relief aces are valued higher by the market than by the baseball internet, which seems to be the case.
Relief aces being valued highly doesn’t mean that Miller would be worth three times what the Cubs paid for Chapman. That’s lunacy.
wherein Dave hopes for LA/BOS to land an elite stud for prospects to salvage his preseason predictions.
…Or the Rangers, who Dave is also notoriously fond of, right?
that’s just for cover. he’s tricksy.
If you look at Sale thru the same lens the Rangers looked at Hamels, there are many more teams in the market. Pittsburgh, for example, is roughly in the same boat as Texas and has the prospect capital and need. Washington has a great internal option in Giolito, but that comes with a ton of volatility. They need to compete now and should be willing to give up Giolito plus a second tier guy for the certainty that Sale brings during their window. You could even make the case that a team like Tampa (that has drastically underperformed and is completely out of it this year) would give up prospect depth for the next 3 years of Sale.
Generally I’ll be willing to give up one top prospect (Giolito/Meadows/Glasnow) plus one second-tier guy for Sale, but not two top prospects. I don’t think the White Sox will be willing to take that deal.
If top 10 hitting prospects are worth 75 million on average, and we are bumping up Moncada’s value for being near the top, you have to also lower Benintendi’s value for being near the bottom of that group. If Benintendi is also being valued at something like 75 million, then the top 10 hitting prospects are worth more than 75 million on average.
I’m interested in what a fair price for Taijuan Walker would be from the Cubs or Rangers. HIGHLY doubt the M’s would trade him but I’m not high on him and would love to trade him for a big package. The problem is the M’s still need to be able to compete next year and there’s not much in the way of replacement pitching out there.
I’m still wondering what would actually be fair value for Teheran? It’s obviously not Sale’s value, but is it closer to Pomeranz or somewhere in between the 2?
Depends on which set of numbers you believe. Obviously a lot lower than Sale, regardless of how you measure. But relative to Pomeranz… It could be either way. Certainly pretty close.
So that would imply that Teheran is worth roughly De Leon + a wildcard, or perhaps a Devers or a Gallo. There aren’t many prospects which precisely match Espinoza’s profile, so it’s hard to say. Remember that the Padres took on a ton of risk by accepting him as the only return.
Not close, not even in the same stratosphere. Teheran is controllable through 2019 (2020?) at less than 9M per year and has a much longer track record as a successful starter than Pomeranz.
I think one thing you aren’t taking into account is that signing a player of Sale’s caliber as a free agent would also cost you a first round pick so that should also be figured into the cost of acquisition.
Aren’t those offers a little light considering the market? Cole Hamels got 3 top 50 ish prospects. Miller got a top 10, a top 100 and a 25 year old player coming off a 3 war season.
Just benitendi and a lower level top 100 would not be a better offer than what the Braves got for Miller. Urias and bellinger would be better but still not really that much considering how much better sale is than Miller.
From a prospect surplus value standpoint your evaluation is probably correct but you have to consider competition in bidding and the window of opportunity. Value for value is a good way to start but 3 War during a competitive window is worth more than 3 war during a rebuild. Since so many teams are currently competing you will usually find at least one team going beyond the surplus value since they feel they only have a limited window.
Theo Eppstein certainly is a smart manager and knows that half a season of Chapman is not worth the surplus value of a top 30 but he did it because he feels the Cubs have a unique opportunity.
Considering the past trades (even pomeranz got a top 15-20) I would say that sale should fetch either 4 top 50ish guys (one more than Hamels) or two top 20 ish guys.
The question is if there is a fit. Moncada and benitendi might indeed be a little steep but benitendi and a top 100 is clearly short of what others got.
Urias and bellinger might be the most realistic but I don’t think the Dodgers do it because they are basically doing a secret mini rebuild under Friedman.
It is just very hard to get an adequate return for such a superstar player. I mean if you go further and trade an even better player like let’s say trout there is simply no team having enough top 50 guys to do it.
I agree, these deals seem light for Sale. As a Sox fan, I’m holding out for Moncada and Benintendi and pointing out to the Red Sox that we (the White Sox) are taking the risk since guys like Brandon Wood, Delmon Young, and Cameron Maybin were all once top 10 prospects.
If the Red Sox or Dodgers (big pass on Gallo because of that K rate) don’t offer what I want, I hold on to Sale and attempt to figure out how to put a competitive team on the field in 2017 even if it looks unlikely.
DD has already ravaged the farm. I am not sure he has the courage to do much more, even for Sale. I think the Red Sox are more concerned about the short term and will just hope Price can turn it around in future seasons. Their best bet and highest priority is probably Rich Hill, even with the blister, which may be why most of the Red Sox top brass is on the West Coast now.
For some perspective on the prospect fetishization that has developed over the past few years, I’d like to see a retro view of the Miggy for Maybin-MIller-Trahern- DeLacruz etc trade in this same kind of analysis. Vehhhhhry eeeentreresting, especially if you are an old Laugh-In fan….
Would you take a retro view of the Érik Bédard trade instead?
I think it would have to be Moncada, Devers, Kopech+, which in turn would have the red sox ask for Sale+Robertson, so I think a realistic deal would be Sale+Robertson+Cash for this season for Moncada, Devers, Kopech, Valasquez or Swihart and like a pair of low a pitchers. I think the article understates that to the white sox theyd be giving up on their current franchise face and would be asking to be compensated for that since its probably bad for ticket sales.
That said, the only place I can realistically see him going, (I dont think DD will give up Moncada), is the dodgers, I think Urias,Bellinger would be fair, but the sox would need more, so add Montas and Walker Buehler and the sox send some cash or a PTBNL. If the dodgers took on Shields and Sale, then maybe just Urias, Bellinger, some lotto tix.