Fowler Takes Over

On Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies announced that they were going to choose talent over whatever it was that they thought Scott Podsednik offered them, and as a result, they handed their starting backup center field job to 23-year-old Dexter Fowler. After a breakthrough performance in Double-A last year, he continued to open eyes in spring training, and the Rockies correctly decided that he’s already one of the best outfielders in the organization.

However, Fowler has the kind of skillset that often goes unappreciated. He’s got the power and speed of a leadoff hitter, but he strikes out a fair amount and isn’t a prolific base stealer, so he’s unlikely to post gaudy numbers in any one area. With his contact issues, he probably won’t hit .300. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, so double digit home runs are also unlikely. And, with a career stolen base success rate of just 66% in the minor leagues, he probably won’t swipe 40+ bases this year. For fans who look for big numbers in a given category, Fowler is likely to disappoint.

However, for Rockies fans who simply want to win baseball games, Fowler offers a broad base of skills that will allow him to help Colorado in various ways. His offense isn’t going to be great until he cuts down on the strikeouts, but as a guy who can play center field, he doesn’t have to hit like Matt Holliday to be productive.

CHONE projects his bat to be worth -15 runs over a 150 game season – for a rookie center fielder with range, that’s actually not bad. Assuming he plays average or better defense and stays relatively healthy the Rockies find a way to get him in the line-up, Fowler projects to be something like a +1 to +2 win player as a 23-year-old. Guys who can step in and provide average-ish production while still adjusting to the majors often become stars, and Fowler has a bright future ahead of him.

Don’t count on huge numbers from him this year, but the Rockies made the right call going have depth with Fowler in center field, and his talent will pay off for years to come.

My mistake on the original story, which had Fowler starting in CF.