Fowler Takes Over
On Tuesday, the Colorado Rockies announced that they were going to choose talent over whatever it was that they thought Scott Podsednik offered them, and as a result, they handed their starting backup center field job to 23-year-old Dexter Fowler. After a breakthrough performance in Double-A last year, he continued to open eyes in spring training, and the Rockies correctly decided that he’s already one of the best outfielders in the organization.
However, Fowler has the kind of skillset that often goes unappreciated. He’s got the power and speed of a leadoff hitter, but he strikes out a fair amount and isn’t a prolific base stealer, so he’s unlikely to post gaudy numbers in any one area. With his contact issues, he probably won’t hit .300. He hits the ball on the ground a lot, so double digit home runs are also unlikely. And, with a career stolen base success rate of just 66% in the minor leagues, he probably won’t swipe 40+ bases this year. For fans who look for big numbers in a given category, Fowler is likely to disappoint.
However, for Rockies fans who simply want to win baseball games, Fowler offers a broad base of skills that will allow him to help Colorado in various ways. His offense isn’t going to be great until he cuts down on the strikeouts, but as a guy who can play center field, he doesn’t have to hit like Matt Holliday to be productive.
CHONE projects his bat to be worth -15 runs over a 150 game season – for a rookie center fielder with range, that’s actually not bad. Assuming he plays average or better defense and stays relatively healthy the Rockies find a way to get him in the line-up, Fowler projects to be something like a +1 to +2 win player as a 23-year-old. Guys who can step in and provide average-ish production while still adjusting to the majors often become stars, and Fowler has a bright future ahead of him.
Don’t count on huge numbers from him this year, but the Rockies made the right call going have depth with Fowler in center field, and his talent will pay off for years to come.
My mistake on the original story, which had Fowler starting in CF.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
What happens to Spilbourghs? Does he still start in LF?
I’d also really like to know this. No mention here.
On the depth charts on CBS and ESPN, it shows Spils as the left fielder, with Dexter in CF. So I guess there’s your answer.
Yes, any ideas?
and ian stewart? for a guy hailed to be the next chase utley, it’s sorta ridiculous that they are not going to find constant ABs for him. unless he is unseating barmes???
I’d say the actual ridiculous thing would be someone actually hailing Ian Stewart as the next Chase Utley.
And I’m sure when Chase Utley came up, comparing him to some of the best offensive 2B in the game would have been equally crazy. Stewart definately has the potential to be a great one, whether or not he can actually play 2B is another question.
Garrett,
His numbers aren’t that impressive when you consider his league and park factors.
What about Spilboroughs?
Spilborghs is the CF starter and Seth Smith in LF, Fowler is a backup at least according to his manager.
April Fools? I’ve seen no news report about Fowler starting over Spilborghs.
My mistake guys – I read the story wrong. I’ve updated the post.
no problem, now is it a good idea to have a talented young guy like Fowler riding the bench?
fowler will start against left-handers and will be a late-inning defensive replacement from what i’ve heard.
Fowler is a talent, and this is a decision looks worse than sending Jeff Clement to AAA. If Fowler isn’t ready to start and he’s the top level sort of talent that people say he is, he should be getting at bats to make him ready, not fallow on the bench. Which leads me to believe that Colorado is looking to do something else. If I were Colorado, trading Brad Hawpe before the world realizes he’s the worst OF in baseball would be a top priority. They’re non-contenders and Hawpe should get them something in trade.
Agree with trading Hawpe but given the tepid FA response for bad fielding OFs (Dunn, Abreu), not sure what they’d get back for him….i wonder if they’ve considered converting him to a 1B….
Hawpe played 1B at LSU, remember.
But what about the gritty, hearty, awesomey awesome that is scotty pods and “smartball”
…hahahhaha