Giants Prioritize Offense With Beltran
The biggest chip in the 2011 trading season has officially been moved. After weeks of rumors, the Giants pulled the trigger on a deal to bolster a struggling offense, acquiring Carlos Beltran from the Mets in exchange for prized pitching prospect Zach Wheeler. Beltran will infuse some life into an offense which enters Thursday’s play with an overall batting line of .241/.306/.360, worth an 82 wRC+ that sits dead last in the National League.
Playing in New York naturally brings high expectations, and, at least in the public eye, it seemed like Beltran failed to meet those expectations. Maybe those around the Mets just turned Beltran and his $119 million contract into a proxy for the team’s success, because Beltran’s performance warranted nothing but praise. His Mets only managed one playoff berth since his arrival in 2005 — his second season, when he posted a .275/.388/.594 line with 41 home runs, all while still playing one of the best defensive center fields in the majors. No, Beltran was hardly to blame for the failures of the franchise. Although he did miss time in both 2009 and 2010, Beltran accrued 31.5 Wins Above Replacement in his six-and-a-half seasons in Queens, sustaining an all-star level throughout his entire contract.
Beltran’s numbers from the first 100 games of 2011 are as gaudy as any he’s posted in his Mets career. He heads to San Francisco with a .289/.391/.513 line despite the power-sapping ways of Citi Field. Expecting him to maintain such production in San Francisco may be too much, as the deep right field wall will make sustaining power numbers from the left side difficult. Even still, Beltran is a good bet to maintain an on-base percentage at or above .370 with respectable power, making him easily the best hitter on the Giants right now with only Pablo Sandoval within shouting distance.
The Giants’ addition of Beltran should put the NL West title squarely in the bank for San Francisco, as they already hold a three-game lead over a flawed Arizona team. Beltran will replace Nate Schierholtz in right field. The 27-year-old right fielder has been serviceable so far, posting a 109 wRC+, but Beltran has been worth nearly three more wins this season and could be an upgrade of as much as two wins over the next 50 games and change remaining.
This trade really isn’t about the regular season for the Giants, though. As much as the Giants thrived on their pitching staff in the playoffs, the bats, particularly a major impact from Cody Ross, were a major force in their success as well. The Giants can’t expect to catch lightning in a bottle from mediocre players like Ross twice in a row, and if the Giants are going to beat the Phillies, Braves and whoever comes out of the NL Central battle to reach the World Series again, they’ll need more offense than they’ve shown so far.
Although one can certainly question how predictive it is, Beltran is no stranger to carrying a team through a postseason, as he almost singlehandedly produced enough offense to take the Houston Astros to the 2005 World Series, compiling an insane 20-for-46 line, including three doubles, eight homers, nine walks, and six stolen bases. Beltran was no slouch for New York in 2006, either, posting a .278/.422./.566 line in 10 games. His overall WPA for the postseason sits at +1.09 for 22 games, or just over +8.0 over a full 162 game season.
There is a lengthy debate to be had as to whether it was worth it for the Giants to deal such a prized prospect in Zach Wheeler, the organization’s second-best prospect according to Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein, for a team that had exceedingly high playoff odds already, but that will be left for another post. Regardless of the cost, there is little doubt that this trade has made the Giants a far better team. Realistically, a player of Carlos Beltran’s caliber was necessary to make another World Series run possible, and Brian Sabean, albeit at great cost, has put the Giants in position to do just that.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
Jack: It’s Zack. With a K.
As a Giants fan, I give the deal a thumbs up although it’s a close call and they paid a big price. I would have preferred to give up a position prospect because their organizational pitching is thin. The sky is the limit for Wheeler. He’s a tremendous prospect.
Well, I understand why this went down, since Sabean coined “TNSTAAPP,” and I agree to it understanding the injury risk any pitching prospect poses. However, Wheeler feels like a better bet to be a impact player at the major league level than Brown, whom MLBTR reported to be the other potential player to come from the Giants, seeing as Brown has to learn to hit still. At least Wheeler threw hard and had a couple other pitches.
Speaking of Brown, maybe someone can answer this for me: At 23 years old, why is he still in High-A ball? I understand that he’s a college product, but I’d think a top-35 prospect would be much closer to the big leagues at that age.
@VivaElJeter: Brown is 22, not 23. Although even so, he should probably get pushed up to AA soon.
I think we overpaid to get him and Sabean will overpay to keep him. You watch…
Dick Tidow, director of scouting and presumably the genius behind most of the Giants draft picks the past few years, assured Sabean the team has enough starting pitching depth in the minors to cover the loss of Wheeler.
It makes sense… With Lincecum/Cain/Baumgartner the rotation is pretty solid for the next few years – they should be able to fill out the 4 and 5 spots either internally or through free agency, and they should get compensation picks if they don’t re-sign Beltran to make up for the loss of Wheeler.
Didn’t see below re: Beltran’s contract clause/no compensation…
The big performance with the Astros was in the ’04 playoffs. They made the WS the next year without him.
It’s a trade that helps out both teams. Win-win, IMO.
Wow! What a terrible analysis! Beltran has 4.0 WAR in 419 PA’s. Schierholtz has 1.3 WAR in 289 PA’s. That would give Schierholtz about 1.9 with Beltran’s playing time. That’s a difference of 2.1 for almost 4 months, or about 1 win for the remaining 2 months, not 2 wins.
However, Beltran’s playing time won’t all come from Schierholtz, but from a combination of Giants outfielders, most of whom are not quite as good as Schierholtz. So that maybe comes to 1.5 wins.
Some of that playing time will come from promising young player Brandon Belt, who might even be sent back to Fresno, thus retarding his development.
So, for maybe 1.5 wins, the Giants are giving up $2M and a possibly
top 50 prospect, plus slowing Belt’s development.
In addition, what the Giants need most for both the present and the future is a shortstop. Should one become available this season or in the offseason, the Giants will be without one of their best trade chips.
Oops! I forgot, Beltran is a clutch playoff player based on 2 postseasons 5 or 6 years ago. Real good point on a statistically-oriented site.
Belt would be a bench player on the Giants which, I would think, be more detrimental to his development than playing every day.
beltran taking away belt’s time should be a non issue, because belt should be playing over huff every day. blame huff for stunting belt’s development, not beltran.
Blame the Giants management, but either way, with the way the lineup is set (with Huff etc), this is the best case scenario for Belt.
Actually, I blame Bochy. Belt, should, of course be playing instead of Huff, not just occasionally in LF. This change would probably help in the short term as much as the acquisition of Beltran without costing anything and be better for the future as well.
Actually, if Beltran’s acquisition would help lead to this change, the trade would be much better.
Yep, there’s no reason to keep Belt on the active roster at this point. You can’t put a hitting prospect of his caliber and age in a position where his goal is to produce from the bench in order to steal playing time. It’s totally backwards, and it rarely seems to work.
You don’t have much of an MILB season left, so why not just send him down to get some regular playing time. He did just make a defensive switch to the outfield, so why not get him some regular reps in the field to stay fresh? If the Giants need a clue, maybe then come September, the decision to stick Huff on the bench will be more obvious.
Yes, this article has factual and analytical issues, but the main point is a good one, that is, the trade was not done for the reg. season but the playoffs. If SF is bright, they will not overuse Beltran in the regular season (absent a close division race) and keep him healthy for the playoffs. Bottom line is that Beltran mashes better than anyone on SF right now, and most likely in the playoffs too. Nice move.
You make a good point on Beltran’s value in the playoffs. My opinion of the article, however, stands.
They can’t still improve the shortstop position?
They can…but it’s a little harder with their best prospect already gone, no?
(Look at me! I can ask snarky rhetorical questions, too!)
As a Mets fan this deal represents the absolute best case scenario. Alderson & Co. deserve a lot of credit for waiting for market to develop, creating the urgency, fostering a bidding war and getting exactly what they needed, a blue chip arm. I’m more confident than ever that the Mets are actually heading in the right direction.
Agreed. The K-Rod trade was a no-brainer, “who wants to pay him next year, Brewers? Cool he’s all yours”
But THIS trade took some good planning and negotiating. The no draft-pick compensation for Beltran made getting anything of value for him tough, but they did it.
what kind of draft pick compensation will the giants get when beltran leaves? i’m guessing they’ll use that to add pitching via the draft, as they so often do.
Nothing.
Beltran has a clause in his contract that teams can’t offer him arbitration after the season – that’s part of the reason the Mets preferred to trade him and get something rather than ride the season out and get nothing when he leaves.
None. Beltran’s contract has a clause stating that he cannot be offered arbitration at the end of the contract. So he walks and the Giants get no compensation.
We gotta go get the papers, get the papers.
none. it’s in his contract that he cannot be offered arb.
wow, 3x late to that reply
I doubt Beltran will be taking much playing time away from Schierholtz (the Giants second most productive hitter and one of the hotter bats in the league as of late). Rowand, Torres, and Ross will likely be the ones fighting for AB’s at this point. Their best OF alignment currently would be (from left to right): Beltran, Torres, and Schierholtz.
They should really be platooning Ross and Torres. Ross kills leftys, while Torres should just give up batting from the right side entirely. Shift Beltran into center vs leftys and give Ross a chance in left. Schierholtz has a reverse platoon split, so there’s no reason to sit him. Let Rowand be a def replacement late in games, and we are all set. Let Belt play 1b over Huff, and profit!
i think Schierholtz is back to regular lefty righty splits this year for some reason.
Beltran will probably take most of his playing time from Ross, Schierholtz and Rowand, in roughly that order. Since Torres only plays CF now, I don’t think his playing time will be affected much.
You are correct about the Giants best OF alignment.
RE: Expecting him to maintain such production in San Francisco may be too much, as the deep right field wall will make sustaining power numbers from the left side difficult.
career numbers in san fran att park:
.310 .375 .483 .858
career numbers in citifield:
.290 .374 .475 .848
plus, sf pitching staff hasn’t be a slouch either. I’d expect beltran to continue or post even better numbers based solely on park alone. either that or he somehow knew the giants rotation so well, that he could hit them no matter the ballpark…
Thanks for that 87 AB split, it was very enlightening.
We can disagree with him on how relevant that is (especially when he leaves out the PAs entirely), it’s still something… and something Giants fans can hope he continues.
is “fag” up there, Matt K’s anonymous response? low class.
Alderson’s maneuvering on this one is nothing short of masterful.
I remember a post on Fangraphs at the beginning of the season about Beltran’s trade value – people were questioning whether the guy could even *play*. At best, people projected the Mets getting a C+/B- prospect for him, if anything at all.
It’s incredible how heavy a role psychology can play, inducing GM’s to give up so much for so little (a cheap pitcher with many years of club control for an aging outfielder whose best days are behind him, and for 3 months at that).
Again I have to give credit to Alderson where credit is due – past Mets management would either have tried an ill-advised playoff run, further depleting the farm system, or traded Beltran for some kind of middle reliever in the minors or something to that effect. FINALLY the days of excruciating Mets mismanagement appear to be behind us, for now.
Now if they could just ship Reyes out of NY for a 3-5 prospects, icing on the cake.
I’m not sue you can credit Alderson (or the role of psychology) with the fact that Beltran is healthy for the first time since 2008. Whether or not Beltran could still play was a fair question at the beginning of the season, since he hadn’t been able to stay on the field for much of the last two. When he showed he was healthy his value skyrocketed, and Alderson does deserve some credit for being patient and not moving him too early.
Meanwhile, I’m sure the Giants don’t consider Beltran “an aging outfielder whose best days are behing him”, but more of a “guaranteed trip to the playoffs”. Which should always be worth an A-ball pitcher with an over-5.00 BB/9, no matter how talented that pitcher is.
Yes Jamie I agree. I guess what I am trying to say is, from a Mets perspective, this trade is a no-lose.
Beltran meant nothing to the Mets for this year. In fact, from the perspective of the Mets, I wanted Beltran to be traded because he was blocking Lucas Duda, who I think might put up numbers similar to Beltran for the rest of the year. Maybe optimistic but it could happen.
The Giants had to do this deal. They did what they had to do. I’m sure Sabean knows, but probably doesn’t care, that he overpaid. The Giants want and need to win now.
I’m just saying that from the Mets perspective, this is a win-win; I never thought they would get someone like Wheeler.
As for blowing his arm out, that’s always a possibility. But the way I see it, you load up your system with as many quality pitchers as possible. If 1/3 of them or even 1/4 of them make it, so be it. But the more you have, the greater the odds of having a suitable quantity of them come to the majors. In effect if the probability of a major league pitcher coming from someone w/ Wheeler’s stats is .25, the Mets just got .25 of a major league pitcher today, which is better than the 0 they had at the beginning of the season.
Beltran is a very good hitter. He really is. But he’s not a savior, IMO, yet most teams looked at him as a savior, because of their need or at least percieved need. This was actually what I said in my post at the beginning of the year – the value the Mets could expect to get for Beltran could vary wildly. I actually thought they might get like a B+/A- prospect in a best case scenario, so this even exceeded my expectations.
Like I said, had Minaya still been running this team, this trade never would’ve happened.
Nonetheless Beltran will definately help the Giants. It’s funny though that everyone sees Beltran as a “sure thing”. He’s not – there’s risk in any player, and health risks do go up as a player ages.
I don’t understand why people act like not being able to offer Beltran arb actually matters. By offering arb, you’re essentially offering him a 1 year deal worth $20-22 million. I don’t think any team would take the risk of offering him arb because he could easily just accept it.
Nah, he’d decline since he wants a real deal. When guys get older they want to guarantee as much money as they can – who knows when they’ll just shit the bed. That’s one of the reasons the system is kind of broken.
I wouldn’t be so sure that he wouldn’t take the arb money if he could get it now. 34 year-olds, even 34-year-old all-stars, don’t typically get long multi-year contracts, and I doubt he gets offered an annual salary anywhere close to $20M again.
@psiogen
That’s ridiculous. Scott Boras will most certainly be looking for a multi-yr deal this offseason, and more than likely…he’ll get it. Worst case scenario: 2 yrs 30mil. Which means 10mil more guaranteed dollars than a 1 yr 20mil arbitration settlement.
With Beltran’s injury history, his camp will be going after the largest guaranteed money deal possible.
The Braves really wanted Wheeler out of high school, he was a local kid they had heavily scouted. Beltran had no value to this year’s Mets, this is a great trade getting Wheeler. The worst-case scenario is he ends up being a decent MLB reliever unless he blows his arm out.
As a Mets fan, I’m ashamed at how dumb Mets fans are when it comes to Beltran. They paid him around 120 million when you consider his perks, although some of that was donated to charity and some was deferred for a reasonable 1.72% compound interest (not exactly Bobby Bonilla), and according to FanGraphs’ Dollar amount, he got them 129.5 million worth of production, plus Zack Wheeler.
It was a fair contract bordering on a bargain.
The majority of Mets fans I know fully appreciate Beltran for the consummate professional and elite centerfielder he’s been while in NY. While there are some Mets fans who never warmed to Beltran, a lot of the negativity emanates from the media itself (see Vescey’s column in today’s NYT’s). As such, don’t take it seriously.
The skepticism was there even before he got signed. “Are the Mets paying too much for Beltran’s amazing playoff run” or “120 million based on his 8 HR?”
It is hard getting rid of skepticism and doubt once it gets implanted. Anyone visiting FanGraphs probably has enough of a grasp of statistics to know he was a great player for the Mets and his contract was a fair one.
Will there be a forthcoming article with some Victor Wang research on Zach Wheeler’s actual value in comparison to the marginal value added to the Giants roster (not marginal by a wide margin) for the remainder of the season and the World Series Repeat push?
I would LOVE to see this.
Obviously for the Mets, this looks like an excellent deal, and while maybe a bit high for the Giants, not too bad, particularly given their situation where adding him greatly improves their chances in the postseason.
G’s needed to do this to enhance their chances of beating the Braves & Phillies come playoff time. However, they’re now going to have to pony up for more expensive pitching resources come 2013.
We’ll see if it works out, but you can’t expect the Vogelsong miracle to extend itself past this year and Timmy, Cain and Sanchez are going to start getting real expensive. If Bumgarner stays healthy, he becomes a real bargain for the next few years but his cheapness is balanced out by Zito’s contract. What else do the G’s have for starters coming up? Eric Surkamp? We just traded a big piece of the future for a better chance in the present. Enjoy the ride while it’s still going up!
Run a comparison between winning now and potentially being in position to win later.
Which do you prefer?
The best evaluation of this trade will occur in at least 2 years. I still greatly appreciate any evaluation at present moment even if the conclusion says the Giants overpaid. They paid to get the piece they wanted.
Since the Giants got a ring last year, I find that I’m not as desperate for immediate baseball gratification.
I believe Sabean would get fired if he threw a chance at another ring for the hope of “one day”. Windows are notoriously fickle for anyone other than the East beasts. 🙂
Thank you Sandy Alderson for making a great trade for the Mets. You not only got back a very good pitching prospect, but you made it possible for me to root for Beltran in the postseason — something I would have found extremely difficult, despite me being a big fan of his, if you had sent him to Philadelphia or the Braves. A+ for your K-Rod and Beltran trades!
I like the deal as a Giants fan because it might just put us in good position for another run to the World Series. As good a prospect as Wheeler seems to be he still is only a prospect. Any time a team gets a known quantity for future possibility seems to be on the best side at least in the beggining. Betran could blow out a knee and Wheeler an elbow at any time so it sure is a crapshoot, but Beltran is a good Major league player and the Giants will get value now should he continue at his present level.
Beltrans contract is viewed by fans in the same light as the A-Rod contract, no matter how well you play you’re considered a failure because your supporting cast were a bunch of scrubs. Miguel Cabreras contract is starting to be viewed the same way to the average Detroit fairweather fan. He isn’t a leader and he doesn’t leg out infield ground balls, what a waste of money
I think it was an overpay by the Giants. However, I trust Dick Tidrow and if he says the Giants have enough pitching depth in the minors I’m going to go with him. If the Giants were willing to trade Wheeler I’m guessing they weren’t as high on him as other people were.
Sabean trading a starting pitching prospect is the kiss of death. Kurt Ainsworth, Jesse Foppert, and Tim Alderson were all very highly regarded when Sabes shipped them out, and none of them ever did anything in the majors. Francisco Liriano is the only SP prospect he’s traded that has done anything, and even his success has been limited due to injuries. Makes you wonder if Sabean has seen something in Wheeler that put him in the trade bait category. He held onto Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner despite very tempting offers for each, while giving up the aforementioned busts, so I’ll trust his judgement here until proven otherwise.
You forgot Voglesong 🙂
wasn’t Foppert injured and on the way down as a prospect by the time they dealt him with Torrealba for Randy Winn? also don’t forget Joe Nathan, although that might have been pre-Tidrow.
I specified SP prospect because of Joe Nathan and Jeremy Accardo, both were successful, but they were relievers. I don’t remember Foppert being on the way down when we traded him, but you could be right.
Remember me and my buddy Joe?
It may well be the kiss of death but I highly doubt that Sabean or any GM for that matter has that kind of prescience.
The Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner trio or something of that caliber is really a first in Sabean’s tenure. Previously the Giants were not known for pitching and mostly relied on Barry Bonds and BALCO. My point is that until recently Sabean has been unable to produce quality starting pitching consistently in the way that you infer.
I remember I thought the same about the Braves (their having an edge)…until they traded away Wainwright for a 1/2 year rental of J.D. Drew. Obviously it’s a bit of a crap shoot, though.
Also I doubt Sabean knows something the rest of us don’t – because otherwise he wouldn’t have waited until almost the last minute to pull the trigger. The Giants didn’t offer up Wheeler in the beginning – they got desperate when competition from the Rangers, etc. started to pick up – at least that’s how I read it. It’s a crap shoot though for sure.
@ MC
You think this deal was done at the last minute of the trade deadline?
Be honest, is this your first rodeo?
@Romodonkulous: What rodeo? Who ever said anything about a rodeo?
It’s just funny how everyone is trying to backward-rationalize this deal. A week ago, NO ONE thought the Mets would get Wheeler; now everyone is basically calling Wheeler a turd.
I’ve seen the guy pitch-he is filthy. Young pitchers are a crap shoot, but 34 year old outfielders aren’t the best either. Wow this board must be packed full of Giants fans (I am agnostic as far as teams go).
@Romodonkulous: Also, from personal experience, I find that it’s useless to attempt to have a rational conversation with anyone blinded by dogma.
Among relievers, in addition to Joe Nathan and Jeremey Accardo, Sabean traded Scott Linebrink, Keith Foulke, and David Aardsma.
Russ Ortiz was a known quantity/not a prospect when Sabez traded him, but the Braves got 36 wins out of him in two years, which is 24 more than the Giants got out of Damien Moss and Merken Valdez.
Tim Alderson has a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP as a 22-yo in AA this year, while Scott Barnes has a 3.68 ERA and 2.65 K/BB as a 23-yo starter for the Indians AAA team. The story is not done for either of them.
And, yes. Francisco Liriano.
Alderson has been converted to relief at AA and his BB ratio of 3.5 per 9 innings is worse than it’s ever been (K/9 is 6.6). The Barnes trade — especially given the return — looks pretty dumb right now, but Alderson has a long way to go still before he’s worth a moment’s regret.
Pitnick:
You may notice, I picked my stats carefully. 🙂
Anyway: Alderson is still only twenty-two. His career could still possibly go in a number of directions from here – one of them being up. I do think the trade was worth it for the Giants – Freddy sporting a WS ring and all that. But, again – the book is not closed on Alderson.
Sabean tried to trade Lincecum for Rios before Lincecum made it to the majors, but the Blue Jays owner shot it down because Rios was such a popular player.
Actually it was the other way around. The deal was in place but Sabean shot it down – or at least that was story here (San Fran).
Worth it for the giants. Wheeler is no guarantee
Wonderful blog you have here but I was curious if you knew of any message boards that cover the same topics talked about in this article? I’d really like to be a part of online community where I can get feedback from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Bless you!
Thank you, I have been hunting for details about this subject for ages and yours is the best I have discovered so far.
Have you ever considered publishing an e-book or guest authoring on other sites? I have a blog centered on the same information you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my subscribers would enjoy your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e-mail.
Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your website? My website is in the exact same niche as yours and my users would definitely benefit from a lot of the information you present here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Many thanks!
I used to be very happy to seek out this web-site.I wanted to thanks for your time for this excellent learn!! I positively enjoying each little bit of it and I’ve you bookmarked to take a look at new stuff you weblog post. piumini monclair
Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due to no data backup. Do you have any methods to protect against hackers?