Hanley Ramirez and the Logjam in Boston
The Red Sox are reportedly on the verge of signing Hanley Ramirez for something “in the range” of $90 million over five years, according to Ken Rosenthal. The vagueness associated with the “range” wording means that we don’t know exactly how many years or how many dollars Ramirez is getting, but it seems like anything in the range of $90 million for Ramirez is going to be a pretty good deal for the Red Sox. That said, we’ll hold off on a full analysis of the contract until we actually know what the contract is going to look like.
So for now, let’s talk about what this move does to the Red Sox roster and the rest of their offseason plans.
As it stands at the moment, the Red Sox starting line-up probably looks something like this.
1. Mookie Betts, RF (R)
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B (R)
3. David Ortiz, DH (L)
4. Hanley Ramirez, 3B (R)
5. Mike Napoli, 1B (R)
6. Yoenis Cespedes, LF (R)
7. Xander Bogaerts, SS (R)
8. Rusney Castillo, CF (R)
9. Christian Vazquez, C (R)
Bench: Shane Victorino, OF (R); Allen Craig, 1B/OF (R); Brock Holt, UT (L); Daniel Butler, C (R)
First off, that line-up is really good, and maybe the best in the league, depending on what kind of production you think they could expect from the three kids at the end of the line-up. But you’ll note the pervasive use of (R)’s; it is difficult to not notice the Red Sox remarkable line-up imbalance.
Of the 13 players listed, 11 of them hit from the right side, and one of the two who doesn’t is on the roster for versatility, not offense. Sure, there are ways to make this group slightly more left-handed, including the likes of Daniel Nava or the recently claimed Juan Francisco in lieu of one of the reserves listed above, but the left-handed bats on the Red Sox 40 man roster aren’t going to crack their starting nine. 10 of their 11 primary hitters would be right-handed, and we haven’t even mentioned Will Middlebrooks.
This is why the team’s pursuit of Pablo Sandoval made so much sense. The team had a hole at third base, assuming Middlebrooks was getting dumped this winter, and they had need another left-handed hitter (or two) to provide some semblance of balance to this line-up. Adding another right-handed hitter at third base upgrades the talent base, but exacerbates the platoon issues the team could face, and they’d be vulnerable to every team with a decent collection of sinker/slider right-handers.
Which is why, of course, the roster listed above won’t be the one that the Red Sox go into 2015 with. There are a bunch of moves coming, even if the team did sign Ramirez because they believe they won’t get Sandoval, which we don’t yet know to be true. Let’s run through some options and see what the Red Sox might do both with and without Sandoval.
Sandoval Comes to Boston Too
This seems like the easiest path to predict. If the Red Sox do land Sandoval to play third base, then there are essentially only two options: Ramirez can play shortstop or left field, displacing either Bogaerts or Cespedes. The left field scenario is the easy one, given that Ramirez duplicates much of what Cespedes gives the team on offense. Given the league’s current desire for right-handed power and his reasonable $10 million salary in 2015, the Red Sox could find a nice market for Cespedes, but without losing the skill that drew them to him in the first place.
Swapping out Cespedes with Ramirez is a pretty clean exchange, and Cespedes would probably bring back a pretty solid pitcher, upgrading a rotation that needs multiple arms. But this is the scenario where the Red Sox sign both Sandoval and Ramirez, making it less likely that they’re also getting Jon Lester, so perhaps they’d seek an ace on the trade market instead. And if you’re going ace-shopping, Xander Bogaerts is a pretty nifty thing to be selling.
The Red Sox are far too smart to trade Bogaerts straight-up for Cole Hamels; he’s the kind of piece that would allow them to set their sights even higher. If Bogaerts is in play, then you’re shopping for a guy like Stephen Strasburg or Chris Sale, and you’re not getting hung up on when you ask about that kind of young ace. If the Red Sox really want to push all-in on 2015, then using Bogaerts to acquire a Sale or Strasburg type would likely be a more significant upgrade than anything the team could get from trading Cespedes.
But this seems like a far-fetched plan. The White Sox just signed Adam LaRoche, so they’re probably not looking to dump their ace. The Nationals are likely more interested in moving one of their 2015 free agents, since trading Strasburg would likely mean that they had to build almost an entirely new rotation in two years. And Bogaerts didn’t exactly love shifting over to third base, so it’s not a given that he’d be that happy playing second for a year either.
Signing Ramirez probably makes a Bogaerts trade slightly more likely, but I’d guess it pushed the odds from something like 1% to 5%. Trading Cespedes seems like the far more likely move if Sandoval also signs with the Red Sox, with Ramirez simply shifting to the outfield to take Cespedes’ place in the field and the line-up.
Sandoval Signs Elsewhere
On defense, this is easy. Ramirez goes to third, and everyone else stays where they are. Only that leaves the line-up of eight right-handers, so the team likely has to make some trades to put a left-handed bat or two elsewhere. Cespedes could still be trade bait under this scenario, allowing Nava to break the outfield rotation, or the team could simply trade Cespedes and replace him with another left-handed hitting outfielder instead.
But there’s another name we haven’t mentioned yet who could be expendable under this scenario: Mike Napoli. While he had a solid enough season in 2014, he’s also entering the final year of his contract, and isn’t exactly cheap at $16 million. As a 33 year old with a degenerative hip, he’s probably not in the team’s long-term plans any more than Cespedes is, and might even be more easily replaced, given Allen Craig’s presence on the team. Craig, of course, is also right-handed, but the team could pick up a lower-cost lefty to split first base duties.
Napoli’s not going to have a ton of trade value at $16 million for one year, but he’d bring back something of minor value, and moving his salary could free up the team to make a run at multiple free agent hurlers. Perhaps the money saved at first base buys you James Shields or Brandon McCarthy in addition to Jon Lester, and Ramirez’s signing simply makes up for the offensive downgrade the team would make by shipping out Napoli.
Of course, this doesn’t have to be an either/or situation. While the Red Sox certainly want to contend in 2015, this has long been a franchise that has concerned itself with both the present and the future at the same time, and Cespdes and Napoli are the two guys in the line-up with real trade value that probably don’t have a future in Boston. For all the talk of moving Victorino or Craig, the Red Sox might very well be better off in trading their current left fielder and first baseman, using their depth to create job-shares that let them tap into their depth more than just sticking with one clear starter at both 1B/LF.
If Cespedes and Napoli are traded for pitching help, then the OF/1B/DH logjams are mostly cleared up. Nava/Victorino and Francisco/Craig aren’t exactly as sexy as Cespedes/Napoli, but they might be mostly as effective, and save the team $25 million in payroll in the process. Not even factoring in what both players might bring back in trade, their salaries could easily be reallocated to pursuing another free agents starting pitcher. Maybe they even use the savings to go after Max Scherzer; Scherzer/Lester/Ramirez would be a pretty nifty group of additions for the Red Sox, and that’s not counting whatever they would get back for Cespedes/Napoli under this scenario.
This might be just as far-fetched as the Bogaerts trade scenarios, and it seems highly unlikely that the Sox signed Ramirez with multiple trades already in place. More plausible is that they know Ramirez gives them the flexibility to pursue different paths, depending on what things transpire after this. His willingness to play either third base or left field gives the team multiple paths to upgrade, and they might not even know what direction they’re going to take just yet.
But it’s safe to say that this signing is probably going to be a catalyst for a host of other moves. The rest of the winter almost certainly won’t be boring for Red Sox fans.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I don’t get the 5/90 deal being a bargain for Boston. At the end of the 5 years, he projects for something of $1.2m surplus – which seems like a (mostly) breakeven deal.
And these days, a “break-even deal” for a free agent signing IS a bargain.
If $/WAR is all based on the free agent market, that’s entirely untrue.
By my math (Steamer projection of 3.8 WAR, -0.5 WAR decline per year, market rate of $6.5M/WAR for 2015, and 5% annual salary inflation), a 5-year contract for Ramirez should be $99M. So $90M would be slightly below market.
And to dunx, the projections don’t vary depending on what his position is. Steamer gives him -5.0 runs for defense. Whether that’s a -12.5 SS or a -7.5 3Bman, it doesn’t matter. Now, you can make sensible arguments for why an individual player would be worth more/less than what the positional adjustments say if you move the guy to a different position, but the projection system only knows the raw numbers.
A: Those projections are for SS, which he won’t play in Boston as the lineup is currently constructed.
B: they’re going for 2015, right? David Ortiz won’t be good forever, Mike Napoli, Victorino and Cespedes are out on FA. Craig is there till 2017/2018 (because option) but he’s rapidly aging. I always assumed this Red Sox team was 2015 or bust, and HanRam is a bargain in 2015. They can eat some value at the end of the deal for sure.
2015 or bust? What? You realize you’re talking about a big market team with tons of good prospects in their system, right?
Well, not really in terms of pitching, but that’s fair I suppose. I guess the Yoenis Cespedes deal made me think they were going for 2015, and now that they’re considering trading him I’m not quite as sure.
Not in terms of pitching what now?
They don’t have any ace level pitchers ready to go (But then, so few teams do at any point) but they’re swimming in pitching prospects: Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson all rate well and all told their top 10 has about five SP in it.
Exactly.
Depending on where you start the $/WAR figure, if you take Steamer’s 3.8 projection and decline that 0.5WAR/yr, you’re left with about 91mil if you start at 6mil per. If you start at 6.5mil you get about 99mil (I’m assuming 5% inflation). I know this seems like a steal at first glance, but I’m not so sure – certainly not a bad deal though.
Then there are some other things to consider:
1) Does his value (and projection) stay flat if he moves off SS? (in theory – maybe. but he may not get all of that positional adjustment back on defense)
2) How good is Steamer with playing time. They have Hanley at 148 games… a figure he’s reached once over the last 5 years. I have no idea how Steamer does playing time, but if anything this seems on the optimistic side. (there certainly isn’t much upside on the playing time projection)
Recently, Hanley has been a lot better than his 2015 wRC+ Steamer projection (157 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons compared to his projected 126 wRC+), so there is definitely some upside there. He could very well put up two more 5 WAR seasons and no one would be too surprised.
Obviously his health is a question mark, but he still could be worth his contract if he misses 20-30 games a year.
Except that much of that projected value comes from his batshit insane 2013 (5 WAR in 86 games; he would have racked up close to 10 WAR at that clip if he played a full season, which he never, ever will again) and not his merely human 2014, a nice 3.5 but still, the Sox will be paying $22 million a year for the next five seasons to a declining 3.5 WAR, injury-prone, defensively suspect left fielder who’s never played that position in MLB. This deal looks pear-shaped to me.
4 seasons*
4 WAR*
defensively suspect at shortstop*
left-field in Fenway Park*
Five if the remaining year vests. I don’t get the enchantment with HanRam either. Maybe he has another bit bat season. Where does he play if Sandoval, a much better defender is at 3B? At least the deal is only four-and-maybe. We shall see.
I think we’re past the 6M dollars per win. Obviously we need to wait till the off-season is over, but I’d say teams are probably paying closer to 7M dollars per win now, at least for bigger contracts.
Seems to me that large market teams (Boston, New York, LA) are often forced to pay a premium of $ per WAR because their incentives differ from the rest of the league. Therefore, I’m not sure that the league average $ per WAR is the appropriate benchmark. A slight surplus deal for a premium player feels like an obvious win for a large market team to me.
‘Forced’ to pay a premium??? HAHAHAHAHAHAA! The principle reasons for compensation inflation in the game are a) NYY, b) LAD, and c) BOS. No one forces their egos, trophy player collection, and lack of impulse control. Looking at all the bad contracts that the Yankees and Dodgers are stuck with, they got exactly what they should have expected and deserve. Boston escaped a lot of that by finding a greater fool in the Dudgahs, but now have inked a bunch of aging risk, albeit for tolerable duration deals, a big separator.
There’s not nearly as much of a discrepensy between payrolls as there used to be. Miami just signed the biggest contract in the history of sports. Every team is making more money with tv contracts and foreign merch sales. Let’s stop hating the “big market teams”. There is more of a level in playing field in baseball right. Is than there very has been in the past.
Someone on Twitter who said they have sources with the Sox that broke the Hanley story on Sunday Afternoon, also confirmed earlier that the Sox signed Sandoval for 5 year/$102 million.
@mlb_nl_al
I know this guy, who knows a guy, who used to date the sister of this other guy who, no he’s not with the Red Sox or the Giants or any MLB team, but I’ve heard folks say he’s really “in the know” as they say, and this guy, the one I actually know (not real well, but well enough IMO, not “just” an acquaintance if you catch my drift), not the guy who used to date the you know, he says it was a done deal last Thursday and everyone on the inside already knows but they don’t have the guts to go public because either they’re all paid off or because it’s understood throughout MLB that this is a top secret black bag hush hush security need to know only sensitive thing since there’s other arrangements being worked out and, you know, arranged.
Damn kid got it right. Again.
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/536864564802224128
sandoval agrees to red sox deal. 5 years, close to 100M (believed to be just under) http://cbsprt.co/1xsaV2Y
Everyone is laughing but didn’t someone just like that break the Stanton 13 year $325M contract?
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Ben Cherington doesn’t even look at a guy’s position when deciding whether to acquire someone. He traded his entire pitching rotation in order to have 7 outfielders (Cespedes, Castillo, Betts, Victorino, Craig, Nava, Bradley). And now he has 4 third basemen (Sandoval, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks).
I can’t even begin to imagine the plan here. Bogaerts would have to get traded (it’s not like shifting Bogaerts or Ramirez to the outfield would solve anything), but why would you sell low on him?
Yes, very strange strategic planning indeed. Consider: Through 90 years, the Bosox loaded up on high-end bats decade after decade while never having more than one high end pitcher at a time and often not that. Those teams always created a lot of noise—but exceedingly few wins in the post-season. With the trade to acquire Josh Beckett a decade back now, the Epsox changed direction. They consistently stocked the rotation with high-end and ace pitchers while acquiring useful position players around a few stars—and won multiple World Series while doing so. Now, the Boston rotation doesn’t even have a single surefire _mid-rotation_ arm, while Cherington is loading up on all the boomy bats he can stuff a cash sack over and carry off to Fenway. This has not historically worked well . . . .
Sure, trades are coming; this doesn’t figure otherwise. I would suppose that Cespedes and Craig are both gone before Spring Training. The shape of the new roster does rather imply that Xander is in play for a top of the rotation arm, and to me that’s a smart move. It’s worth remembering that Boston TRADED Hanley when he was a prospect equivalent to Bogaerts, _for Beckett_ who was the cornerstone of the reworked rotation of that time. The question is years of control for a young pitcher brought back. I can’t even think of a prospect who would fit the bill well; maybe Taijuan Walker in Seattle if the Mariners were inclined to move him for Bogaerts. I don’t like that, but it’s a rational deal for both ends.
To me, the likeliest scenario is the Chersox going after some walk year aces for less give-up, and then looking to sign the player long-term. Price for Cespedes and Vazquez/Henry Owens would fit that matrix for instance, or some similar young-old combination leaving Boston. Or going after Jordan Zimmerman. Think about it: if Cherington ended up acquiring Price and someone like Walker without giving up Swihart, Betts, or his best 25-man veterans, it would be a pretty good looking outcome, and we’ll all be applauding his daring. If he comes up empty netting back high-end pitching through the rest of this offseason, it won’t be so pretty. My purest guess is he wouldn’t be doing the Panda and HanRam deals now unless he knew he had an inside track on whatever pitching he means to get back _outside of major free agent signs_, which $$$wise don’t seem in the offing.
A very interesting game of all in vingt et un. Let’s see what Cherington draws on his next two cards . . . .
Balthazar, how is the Beckett trade the one you point to for their emphasis on pitching? The 2004 Red Sox had two future Hall of Fame starting pitchers, a man with some dominant seasons under his belt, and a man who pitched a decade and a half in Boston and was effective for most of that tenure in Schilling, Pedro, Lowe and Wakefield. The Red Sox of past years have had Eckersley, Tiant, Clemens in the fold as well. Clemens won three Cy Youngs and an MVP in Boston. There’s a decent chance the Red Sox eventually could have four of these pitchers in the Hall of Fame wearing a Red Sox cap, plus Eck.
Even more, Josh Beckett isn’t even the best starter they’ve had in the past decade, that would obviously be Jon Lester. What other great pitching pieces did Epstein acquire? 52 MM for Dice-K? 83 MM for Lackey? Buchholz and Lester were drafted then extended, and I’d hardly give Epstein all the credit there, at least for development-after-the-draft part of the equation. Papelbon was pretty good in Boston, but so was Keith Foulke on that ’04 squad. Beckett was a solid trade, but they also punted Anibal Sanchez in that trade and, of course, the peak of Hanley Ramirez. The 1997-2004 Red Sox were, in my opinion, much better at acquiring talent than the 2005-2012 renditions. The 2013 title team placed a focus on undervalued position players like Victorino and Napoli. Their pitching expenditure – Ryan Dempster – failed.
Is the fear about being too right-handed somewhat alleviated by Hanley’s splits vs RHP?
Career (almost 4000 PA’s): .298/.367/.492 (129 wRC+)
Mookie, not Bogaerts, is a starting point for Sale. Like Profar, I do not get the existing talent/hype surrounding Bogaerts.
I was shocked by that statement too. Bogaerts has looked good sometimes, but was not impressive last year, and to bring a return of Sale or Strasburg?!?
I read about the Red Sox on here, and it’s like they weren’t a bad team or something last year. They have the talent and the $$ to bounce back, but let’s not forget they’re coming from a starting point of suck.
Especially because the White Sox aren’t in “tank” mode any more. With Sale, Abreau, Quintana, Eaton, and Ramirez they have enough of a core to add guys like LaRoche and Duke to put themselves close enough in the AL Central.
Bogaerts and Profar both have huge upside because of their extreme youth. Of course, it may take a number of years for it to finally click, which is the challenge of having these guys at the major league level.
He’s an incredibly talented 22 year old that struggled in his first experience against major league pitching. I wouldn’t sleep on him.
Totally agree, I’ve never been a ‘Bogaerts Superstar’ believer. He’s been good but not all world in the minors with some telling holes to fix. Everything was doing off age-level projections, and quite a lot of dreams end in tears from that. Xander, like Manny Machado, looks to be too big to last at SS, so projecting his bat at 3B is what should be done but often wasn’t (and isn’t now). To me, moving Xander is smart for Boston—if they can cash out his maximum prospect hype. Again, Boston traded Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett in similar circumstances a time back, and that worked out well in Beantown even while Hanley put up ‘toldyahso’ numbers in sunny Florida.
I’m not convinced either that Bogaerts alone nets back anyone like Strasburg or Sale at this point. He might bring back Taijuan Walker. I’m not fond of that because I doubt Xander ever reaches his pie-sky-high projections, but it’s deal I could see getting done.
I’d guess that there’s no such thing as a “starting point” for a Chris Sale trade. He’s one of the 3 or 4 best pitchers in the world — the only one I’d definitively put above him right now is Kershaw — and the White Sox have him for 5 more years at a total of, what, about $50M?
And if (God forbid) he gets hurt, the last two years of the contract are club options. If the 25-year-old Sale can keep pitching as effectively he has for each of his three seasons as a starter, he’ll generate more than $100,000,000 in surplus value over the next half decade. Besides Trout, who else can we say this about?
seems like a trade with the A’s would make sense, right? Regardless of the quality of the lineup, that’s ridiculous and needs to be sorted out. A’s need righties, A’s have an excess of lefties. Seems like a decent fit.
Also I really doubt Sale or Strasburg is in play, even if Boegarts is on the table. The trade values maybe match up (although that’s doubtful after last season), but both teams have no urgent need for an SS upgrade and both would, if faced with an fair offer, elect to keep the pitchers. If only for marketing value and the fact that they’ve proved themselves elite at the MLB level whereas Boegarts hasn’t. He’s a fantastic prospect still, but he’s still a prospect and there’s a certain element of uncertainty with him, and teams have shown that unproven prospects aren’t as valued as they once were.
IMO, the discussion for Sale/Strasburg starts at Boegarts+Betts. The Red Sox won’t bite, so the trade is unrealistic.
I don’t think the White Sox would bite, either. The Nats, sure, they could trade Strasburg and then look to sign Zimmerman to an extension, or sign a free agent next year to replace Strasburg. I just can’t see a scenario where the White Sox would trade Sale, he is so valuable.
But if there’s any one pitcher in MLB who’s arm is nearly guaranteed to explode given his pitching mechanics, it’s Sale.
But…I don’t see the ChiSox trading sale until they know Rodon is 110% ready for prime time.
But you acknowledge that the hype exists? Would your opinion reflect Bogaerts’ trade value better than the industry’s consensus opinion? Bogaerts’ ranked 23rd in Dave’s trade value exercise earlier this year after all
Remember that Nava isn’t just a LF/RF — he can play 1B too. His wRC+’s vs. RHP in 2012-14 are 120, 146, 118, respectively. A Nava/Craig platoon would would both in LF and at 1B. I would be very surprised at this point if Cespedes isn’t moved for a starting pitcher — that seemed like it was going to happen even before any Hanley/Sandoval news. At this point, that’s even more likely, but Napoli could be on the move too. From what’s floating around, it sounds quite likely that Panda will be a Red Sox soon, too.
RF Betts(R) / 2B Pedroia(R) / DH Ortiz(L) / LF Hanley(R) / 3B Sandoval(S) / SS Bogaerts(R) / 1B Nava(S) [Craig(R)] / CF Castillo(R) / C Vazquez(R)
Alternatively, Hanley could go to 1B in that situation, considering his inexperience in the OF (he did play there in Winter ball once) and Nava’s continuously improving outfield defense. On a final note, there’s huge uncertainty with Victorino’s health. He can’t be counted on as a starter at this rate, and is recovering from surgery that may not allow him to get into game action until the latter half of March, if not later.
Everyone’s been talking about a Cespedes trade, but a Napoli trade makes a ton of sense too. They need to get rid of some RHB’s, he’s the only trade candidate other than Cespedes who isn’t a “sell low” situation, and they have internal options to replace him (the Nava/Craig platoon).
That’d probably leave you with: Bogaerts at SS, Sandoval at 3B, Ramirez/Castillo/Betts/Victorino sharing time in the outfield (unfortunately all bat RH), Nava/Craig platooning at 1B.
All want to say is I applaud fangraphs for seemingly giving their writer’s the weekend ~off; as there’s not much content on the weekend. And I’m completely on board with that, if that’s actually a legit observation. Nonetheless, I also look here first for baseball analysis. Not sure what that means… so, thanks?
I read that like six times and can’t tell if you’re legitimately happy? Upset that they’re not on herer 24/7? Passive-aggressive? So…thanks?
Yeah I can’t tell either. This is my favorite website, period. Im thoroughly appreciative of this site. So, I won’t ever complain about the decisions the Daves make regarding the site. But with all that said, I have to ask, why not find a decent writer or two who can handle weekend duties? I’m sure there are capable writers out there who would actually prefer to work weekends because they have other gigs during the week. I’m sure the readership would appreciate it too. I’m not saying they have to be like MLBTR and operate 24/7 but willingly going off the grid two days a week? It just seems like an odd business choice.
No idea either and trying to figure it out makes my brain hurt! ! I don’t agree with the down votes cause he may very well be sincere. I think I agree with the gist. Wish there were articles on the weekend. Understand there isn’t. And yet for some reason I still give FG 25 visits over the weekend for occasional scrap we get like an insane person, completely negating the need for them to post articles on the weekends. So if they’re getting the page views anyway, let the writers have the weekend off!
I suspect many of them work quite a bit during the weekend in any event, just don’t post.
I think the notion that cespeses will bring back a significant upgrade is hopeful. Heywaes brought back Shelby Miller, who granted has potential, but has been so inconsistent and his peripherals are trending backward, and no one in his right mind would give up more, let alone equal value, for cespeses, so unless he’s part of bigger package, don’t expect a big rotation upgrade based on cespedes alone.
I think it’s possible that the Sox could look for a pitcher that would project to be better than Miller in 2015 but come with less years of control. Cespedes for Iwakuma?
If the Mariners wanted Cespedes, it’d be because they wanted to compete. If they wanted to compete, why would they trade away Iwakuma?
It’s not exactly rare for competing teams to trade pieces off their major league rosters with each other
No offense, but I hate it when people get players’ names wrong: It’s Cespedes and Heyward, not cespeses and Heywaes.
That Jepson Heywaes will fetch a pretty penny on the free agent market.
Sure, but Yorgelis Cespeses ain’t exactly chopp livvr
Except he didn’t misspell any other words..
Everyone is saying no to a Hamels deal, but the two teams match up well. Hamels, Asche, Ruiz for Craig plus a package of prospects that could be Johnson, Marrero, Vasquez +.
While on the one hand, I see that as among the better packages that Amaro could probably get for Hamels, on the other I don’t see it being enough for Amaro. Neither Johnson nor Marrero is MLB ready and none of those guys grades out as a top 100 prospect.
Is this accounting for Craig’s negative value?
“Hamels, Asche, Ruiz for Craig plus a package of prospects that could be Johnson, Marrero, Vasquez +.”
So a third of the Phillies starting lineup who are signed to favorable deals for a handful of 3rd tier prospects. Right…
Red Sox fan eh?
That’s just silly for both sides. People need to stop thinking the phillies are desperate to move Hamels for a less than ridiculous return.
Seems most likely scenario is the Red Sox and Phillies do indeed have a trade agreed to on the condition the Red Sox get Sandoval. Figure Hamels to Red Sox for Cespedes (which is why Phils are out on Tomas) along with Vazquez and Owens.
that’s comical
I see no scenario in which the Red Sox trade Owens and a C. Plus who would start for Boston at C if they deal Vazquez? Plus why would the Phillies want a one year rental in Cespedes?
More likely that the Phillies would take back the dead money owed to Craig to try and get a better prospect haul. I could see a deal of Hamels and Ruiz (to split time with Vazquez) for Swihart, JBJ (no place to play), Craig (dead money) and 2 flier type prospects.
that’s another variation that could work.
Ew, no, thanks but no thanks. Not for giving up Swihart for a guy who’s making pretty much exactly market value.
yes most Sox fans do believe they deserve to get a TOR starter in exchange for a package of C+ prospects… and be happy about it. then they’ll wake up.
Look, it’s not a matter of C+ or whatever. Swihart is the top rated catching prospect in the entire league, giving that up for Hamels isn’t a great idea for the Sox.
If you’re going to trade someone with Swihart’s upside, you’re better suited packaging him with someone like Betts for a more cost controlled pitcher.
No way that happens. Philly is moving Hamels to clear up payroll, so no way are they taking back large dead money unless at least two top prospects are coming two, i.e Bogaerts and Betts, which of course isn’t happening. Ruiz isn’t exactly cheap. JBJ has zero net value after the way he’s hit; he IS a flier, at best. The entire package you cite wouldn’t net back Hamels.
Hamels to Boston could get done, but let’s get realistic: The only way the talent cost to Boston works is if they take on all of Hamels’ money. That done, they might be able to talk Amaro down into something like Swihart, Victorino, and an unproven arm of the Owens/Johnson variety, with Victorino being mostly a salary dump move by Boston. Hamels may be fully priced, but he’s also very good, and cheaper than any conceivable alternative on the free agent market. Boston isn’t getting him without giving up at least one of Betts, Bogaerts, or Swihart, so make your pick and balance the rest. Ruiz and Craig aren’t balance: they’re ballast to a deal which will require more value lumped in on the seller’s side to move them.
The Phllies are not trading Hamels to “clear up payroll.” I have no idea where you got that but is simply not true.
Also, Streamer projects Ruiz at 2.7 WAR next year. Even if you dock him 1 WAR for 2016 he projects out at 4.5 WAR over his 2 year contract or a conservative valuation ($6 million/WAR) of $27 million in value while being paid $17 million dollars.
If you knock him a standard .5 WAR than he’s projected to be at 5 WAR and if you use a more aggressive valuation ($7 million/WAR) than he will be worth $35 million over 2 year.
Either way Ruiz has significant positive trade value, in the neighborhood of $10-$20 million dollars.
As for Craig he is exactly the type of player the Phillies need to be adding (buy low). If the Phillies rid themselves of Howard than they can play Craig everyday at 1B and if he has a rebound year you have him for a reasonable 2/20 and can flip him for more assets. If he stinks than taking on his salary got you better prospects.
And let’s not forget JBJ was a top prospect not to long ago (12 months) who plays elite defense in CF, has a track record of hitting in the minors and is only 24.
Regarding Hamels and payroll, you have evidently missed the repeated remarks about Philly being completely unwilling to kick in money in a Hamels trade. And there is no reason to move the best pitcher on the team who anchors the rotation and for whom there is no obvious replacement unless one is planning to deploy the committed assets on a quality acquisition; which quality acquisition Philly doesn’t really seem to have the bucks to pull of while having to pay both Lee and Hamels, and Lee’s trade market is hurt by his injuries. You do the math . . . .
Ruiz does indeed project to have positive value. He also is an aging catching with PED use in his past, so you have to price in the risk as well. He isn’t dead weight, but only has value to a win-now team lacking catching. Detroit might well want him. Why would Boston look to acquire such a guy? Boston specifically passed on Salty to play younger, cheaper catchers who offered a lot. There isn’t a scenario where Ruiz really adds value to Boston’s 25-man, he’s expensive relative to the alternatives, and blocks guys they want to promote. Boston taking him on is a non-starter unless they are emptying the farm system in trades.
JBJ _was_ a good prospect. He’s been frighteningly bad as a hitter against major league pitching, which counts for far more. 24 isn’t young for a prospect, it’s the typical age of a suspect. Bradley does play good D, but you have to consider in getting him that you may well be acquiring a fifth outfielder who can’t hit a lick. While I’d like to bet on JBJ to increment his way a little higher than that, you’re looking at him through homer glasses, my friend. Absent past prospect buzz, JBJ has zero net value in a deal. We don’t really price in just how different it is to hit against minor league pitching . . . .
Allen Craig?? *hoo-boy* He is NOT a buy-low option. That might be true if he was a free agent, but he’s owed three years of significant money. He’s a terrible defender who should be DHing if he plays at all. He sure looked done in 2014, so one has to price in the fact that if he is acquired the total return on his contract may be a large _negative_ value. Sure, maybe he bounces back for one good year of offense not completely wiped out by his damn bad defense. I wouldn’t want to take on that bet three years in a row, which is what anyone getting him has to do. I don’t think the Sox got Craig last year as an upside bet; I think they got him on a ‘you take him or we have no deal’ basis. If they can move him for a couple of beans they’re geniuses. I think they can get it done, but he won’t net back anything useful if they can find a sucker for his money owed.
Seriously, try to price a Philly-Boston deal that isn’t wildly overvaluing Boston’s assets and absurdly undervaluing those down the pike. I know that Amaro value’s assets like a fool, and has asked for way, way too much for his guys, including some of these guys. That doesn’t mean that Philly’s best assets can be had for a bunch of never-done-its and huge decline risks that Boston would love to move.
Cespedes has almost no value to the rebuilding Phillies since he’s in his walk year and can’t be offered a QO. The only value he has is to be flipped. Craig would have some value since he’s controllable for 3 more yrs and the money offsets some of Hamels contract.
Why can’t Cespedes be offered a QO? 95% sure he can.
He can, so long as he’s on the team when the season starts.
no, he can’t.
http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/8/3/5963877/the-framework-of-a-yoenis-cespedes-extension-red-sox-trade-jon-lester
By the terms of Cespedes contract, he must be non-tendered by the Red Sox at the end of the 2015 season. The Red Sox will be essentially releasing him.
The entire qualifying offer system is part of Article XX(B) in the collective bargaining agreement. That’s the section of the contract that makes players free agents after 6 years of MLB service. Cespedes won’t be a free agent under Article XX(B).
The musical chairs are going to be fascinating, although I’m a little surprised at the potential value placed on some of the Red Sox pieces. Cespedes has power, but he has a low OBA and some iffy other skills, plus he can’t be given a QO, so trading for him is a one year rental. Does that bring a good pitcher bacK? Is Bogaerts really worth Sale or Strassburg–not whether the trade would be made, but is that his value?
Just signed with Boston!! Can’t wait to eat mad chowda!!!!!
Not yet, according to your agent.
I hope you’re not a stress eater, Pablo, if you’re going to Boston…
JUST WAIT UNTIL I SIGN LESTER, SCHERZER, AND HEADLEY!!! MUAHAHAHAHAAH
We are getti???? at least one of those. Guaranteed
Honey Boo-Boo likes getti with a tub of butter.
Heyman tweeted that the Sox agreed to terms with Pablo Sandoval, too. So it looks like scenario 1 is coming true.
Just crazy. I get this feeling that the Yankees are going to do something crazy to counter this. Scherzer is gonna be in pinstripes by Christmas.
maybe the sox think the yankees are going to swoop in and sign lester at the last minute. there’s been some talk of this
Doubtful. Lester has a bit of a loyal streak in him…
I see no way he pulls a Johnny Damon…
Glad to see that Damon is still the face of leaving the Sox for the Yanks.
Jon Heyman is reporting that Panda is a BoSox. Moving Mookie to 2B and trading Pedroia for a left-handed OF/1B-type could be the answer. Pedroia’s peripherals have been trending down in recent years and his continued injury history could make this the last chance to sell high.
Pedroia *is* the Red Sox so dealing him is a complete non-starter. Stop the Mookie madness.
Pedroia ain’t moving.
But the Red Sox would be stupid to trade low on Betts while they have their position player logjam. They need to get him an everyday spot, or commit to him being their version of Ben Zobrist.
Half this post was overcome by events after 6 hours. One big strike-thru?
There’s a lot of teams looking for righty offense.
With Ramirez off the market, the BoSox have “cornered” the market and not only force seekers to come to them but get to squeeze a bit more value out of the players they want to trade.
So Cespedes for Iwakuma is not out of the question when the alternative is Walker for Upton. And in a year with abundant pitching but limited bats hoarding bats has its uses.
Maybe they move all three: Napoli, Cespedes, and Craig.
Get a lefty OF bat (or catcher–Grandal maybe), bullpen help, and good low level prospects and free up money for an older pitcher or two. Prospects are currency, too.
the problem is that none of those 3 really has much value enough to yield any impact player.
could see a Cespedes for Latos swap. If Latos passes a physical that’s probably a good risk for the Sox and Cespedes would be a great fit in LF at GAB.
Sure they can. From the low minors.
Chris Archer was traded twice for “lesser” talents. And not one on one.
That’s where “cornering the market plays in”.
A lot of the win-now teams looking for a Cespedes or Napoli will cough up a future starting shortstop or CF plus a couple live arms from the low minors for a shot at the WS.
That would allow Boston to trade prospects for Hamels or some other high end pitcher and not deplete their farm system.
the Sox can trade for Hamels or Zimmermann w/o having to separately acquire prospects for Cespedes. That said, Cespedes to the Giants could also work.
All it takes is one over-paying sucker, right fj? A thousand scenarios can be spun on the potential that one nitwit out of 29 others thinks he’s special.
Kansas City makes a ton of sense for Cespedes. Or Miami. Or Toronto. I could see St. Louis as a partner. Atlanta fits well, actually. The Giants and Mariners work so long as the talent match is low. Baltimore should let Cruz cruise and get Cespedes to serve the same end if the talent give-up isn’t too steep.
Point is, it won’t be hard to move Cespedes, and for something of real value too. As long as Boston doesn’t ask for the moon.
So the point is that the red Sox would be massively improved if they signed all the top free agents and then also traded for an ace? That seems enormously unrealistic, especially for a team that’s not the Dodgers.
How is it constructive to speak at a level of generality greater than the one in the article?
Given that “all the top free agents” in this case just means three of them, two have already signed, and Boston has a wealth of minor & major league talent to deal from, it doesn’t seem unrealistic at all – much less “enormously” so.
I think we’d match up with the Tigers pretty well in a trade scenario. They have Price and Porcello who have one more year becoming free agents. They could use some combination of Cespedes and Victorino (who is close to market value at 2 WAR and $13M) and prospects (ours or theirs) to make some kind of balanced trade for one of those guys. The Tigers OF sucks right now and this would allow them to upgrade 1 OF position and potentially a second if they want to see what Victorino’s got.
What if they signed hanram and Sandoval and scherzer and Lester and traded one year of a 3-4 outfielder (cespedes) for one of the best aces in baseball (strasburg or sale)??? How good would they be? They’d be the best in the league because that’s a ridiculous thing to expect one team to be able to do. This is not what I expect of fangraphs. This belongs on redsox.com.
Ease off the WEEI kool-aid…
That pie in the sky is way too large to handle…
That’s what I’m saying! All the conjecture here is absurd homerism and does not belong on a site like fangraphs.
traded one year of a 3-4 outfielder (cespedes) for one of the best aces in baseball (strasburg or sale)???
This was not suggested in the article. Why are you pretending that it was?
These seem like extremely good signings for the Red Sox. Big-name free agents seem to be getting 7 to 10 years these days – for a lot more than $18m to $20m. Neither Sandoval nor Ramirez needs to be great for this deal to work out for the Sox.
5 year deals for relatively young position players are not really that risky. All the Sox need is for these guys to average 3 WAR per season through their early to mid 30s, and they will come out ahead.
I was not expecting the Sox to focus on position players this off-season. But when deals like these present themselves, the Sox did the right thing in pouncing on them.
To be fair, neither Ramirez nor Sandoval are “big name” in the traditional sense of the word. They are the top two hitters in a shallow market.
Speaking as a White Sox fan who has seen recent signings of Duke and Laroche, I’d say Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are “big name” signings…
Seems to me as though the Reds may be a good team for the Sox to talk trade with. With Simon, Cueto, Latos and Leake all headed to FA after this year the Reds are currently shopping them all. I could see Cueto or Latos bringing in a nice haul from the Sox. I would love to see the Reds get their hands on Bogaerts as it fills a need for them as well. This would mean giving up Cueto most likely. I could even see a deal involving Chapman as well.
Will be a fun offseason.
I mentioned the Reds above but I could see a one for one – Cespedes for Latos deal making sense for both sides since both are headed for FA after 2015.
I wouldn’t touch Latos with the injury concerns. I’d rather for a straight Cespedes for Ian Kennedy swap.
You should mention your idea to Dave.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fg-on-fox-making-a-deal-between-the-reds-and-red-sox/
Cueto gets back more than Latos, even though both are walk year guys. Latos is a good target for the Sox nevertheless. Yes he’s been hurt, but that pushes down his cost; he’s also been very good in the past. Cincy needs outfielders, and the Sox have other guys to move than Cespedes. Good call, as these are actually well matched trade partners.
Cespedes to San Diego has some interest, and the park might reward his major asset, right-handed power. I don’t think San Diego moves Kennedy for a one year asset, though, so the deal would have to be a bit larger and balanced differently.
Package Napoli and Cespedes to Seattle or the Mets (or somewhere else that needs hitting now and has payroll flexibility) for a solid starter, and move either Escobar or Hanley to 1st.
Alcides?
Pablo
lol – if the Sox are giving this guy a big contract, there’s a lot of explaining to do:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Escobar
Still a better 1B than Alcides.
Doh. Hahaha
The Mets don’t need either of those guys now that they have Cuddyer, but Bogaerts for Syndergaard (and maybe Montero?) would be a tasty treat.
Mets fan here with an irrational love for Mookie. I’d trade one of the young guns for him in a heartbeat. Everything I’ve read says he can handle SS.
What Met fan doesn’t have an irrational love for players named Mookie?
Seattle has the payroll for both Cespedes and Napoli, it’s the talent payout for them that doesn’t balance well. I don’t see Seattle giving up mucho talent for one year contracts. It might be that Seattle is dumb enough to move Michael Saunders for Cespedes to rebalance their lineup, but that doesn’t clear up positional space for Boston. If Boston is going to let either go for a decent-not-great minor leaguer or a bullpen arm, that could happen, but whey would Cherington do that when he could likely get something back elsewhere that’s more useful and useful now?
Likewise, I don’t really see how either of these guys helps the Mets. One year contracts just aren’t that helpful unless you’re all in for a playoff berth, which surely doesn’t fit the Mets.
Cespedes _or_ Napoli to Kansas City now, that looks interesting. I could see either going to the Brewers. Either player going to Toronto makes a ton of sense. I could even see the Marlins be interested in either player, Cespedes in particular. The Mariners are going to want a longer term asset unless the price is a bushel of stale nuts.
The Sox need to move Cespedes and/or Napoli for any kind of decent return they can get for them. I fear that their potential trade partners right now are getting hung up on the possibility of getting Betts or Bogaerts for cheap because of the Sox self-induced logjam.
It might be worth it to just take Leake, Gee, or even Colon straight up for Cespedes. Right now, any of them would be the Opening Day starter for Boston.
Does Boegarts plus Cespedes plus pitching get Colorado to think about moving Tulo?
Maybe…in fact, likely.
But with HanRam/Bogaerts, why would the Sox want Tulo? Color me confused, but I just don’t get this one.
Colorado should be all over that. I think that’d be a mistake by Boston unless their convinced the 21 YO season of Bogaerts is what he is. Most guys are in A ball or AA at 21, so I doubt they’re overly concerned yet.
Strong use of there/their/they’re by me….sheesh.
they are swearing that Sandoval hasn’t reached a decision yet despite the reports.
Alex Speier @alexspeier · 12m 12 minutes ago
Sandoval will make his final decision today, his agent just informed me.
The Phillies will take Eduardo Rodriguez straight up and will be happy they got that much for one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Not what the article you’re attempting to mock said.
I was mocking the article that said that.
There is no article that said that.
“So there’s an argument for Rodriguez for Hamels, straight-up. If the Phillies want some quantity on top of that, they can take some lower-level, toolsy sorts. With Rodriguez in there, though, the Phillies can’t get too greedy because Rodriguez might be more than enough on his own.”
That doesn’t say what you said. At all.
You’re as dumb as the original article.
– “LOLGraphs”
I believe these deals give the ability for possible 3 way deals with Hamels to Boston. If the Phillies eat money on Victorino, Cespedes, Craig ect… it gives both Boston and the other team in involved to get prospects to Philly without dumping their farm and inheriting (or being stuck with) potential bad contracts.
Overlooked aspect of these 2 FA deals – the Sox had one of the 10 worst records so they don’t lose their 1st round pick despite signing the 2 best position player FA out there. . . .
Bogaerts for Chris Sale? Seriously? That conversation would go something like this.
“Hey Chicago, would do you think of trading Sales for Bogaer…?
Hello, hello”
*Ring Tone*
No it wouldn’t.
Based on what? Sale is controllable through 2019 on a very good deal and is one of the best players in the game. Bogaerts hasn’t done anything and is only controllable for 1 more year than Sale. The White Sox would be insane to make that trade.
The only choices are that they hang up before hearing the entire proposal or they make the trade before it is proposed? What a useful way to talk about…anything.
Bogaerts for Sale straight up was not suggested by anyone. Bogaerts for Hamels was, but was then discarded in favor of the idea of *using* Bogaerts to acquire Sale or Strasburg.
What would that package be and would it be worth accepting? Don’t know. But the White Sox absolutely do not hang up before hearing it. No team does.
It’s a figure of speech, he wasn’t actually suggesting the gm would literally hang up on him. You debating that point is farcical.
It’s badly-delivered hyperbole based on a willful misrepresentation of this article’s suggestion. And the point it is being used in service of is what is being debated: that the White Sox would not consider a package headlined by Bogaerts. That is weird and wrong.
Thanks for your contributions.
Ben Cherington must be drunk. Seriously, who are you going to bench? The $72M Cuban? A veteran that put up 5.6 WAR in 2013? Mookie “Ben Zobrist” Betts?
Even using the assumption that Cespedes will be traded. You STILL don’t have room to to sign Sandoval and HanRam. Or if you do, the marginal value of the upgrade is non-existent. While the margin on the upgrade in the pitching staff would be massive.
And he can’t trade anyone else, either! It’s impossible!
Ben Cherington must be drunk! Hopefully you can get in touch with him and straighten that idiot out.
Who would he trade that would make sense?
Yeah, Cespedes is gone, but other than that, I wouldn’t trade anyone. I just wouldn’t sign Sandoval.
As a Yankees fan I am happy with the BoSox signings. Hanley doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would be happy moving to the OF..he has never been known as a “team player.” If he blocks Boegarts than thats a good thing for the other AL East Clubs. He is just not a happy camper to have on your team. And Sandoval is good but not an elite player. His rep is better than his numbers say. I would worry more about his offense than his defense, he moves really well for a big fella. I do worry about this opening about a big-time trade for the Sox though. I think whoever gets Hamels is getting a steal at 4 years and 90 mil. Much better than paying Scherzer/Lester 140 mil or so.
Yeah I bet they didn’t talk to Hanley about moving the OF. They’re just going to spring it on him.
“First off, that line-up is really good, and maybe the best in the league”
I don’t think ANYONE shares that opinion outside of Boston.
Far as I can tell that lineup reads “Regression, Decline, Decline, Decline, Decline, Already Declined, Hope, Overmatched, Unknown”
Doesn’t sound like the best offense in baseball to me.
Most Bostonians I know tend to have the following thought process:
“If they played for the Sox, they’re amazing and shoe-ins for the HoF. If they didn’t, well…that’s because they belong on the scrap heap. They’re worthless…
Unless their names are Clayton Kershaw, Giancarlo Stanton, or Troy Tulowitzki. In that case, sell the farm for one of those three…”
I’m guessing the people who keep mentioning Allen Craig as some kind of asset are Red Sox fans. St. Louis was thrilled to be able to dump his contract in the Lackey deal. $38.5 million over the next four years committed to a below replacement level player means that he has significantly negative value.
As for the Ramirez-Sandoval pairing, I’m thoroughly confused. Hanley made sense at 3B given that he doesn’t have strong splits and is a better player than Sandoval, but leaving him at shortstop or moving him to left field is just weird. People do get too excited about prospects and we shouldn’t assume that Bogaerts or Betts are going to be stars or even average players over the long-term, but they’re strong options at prices that would allow Boston to address its gaping chasm in the rotation.
It’s amazing how I just sprung into existence last spring, and didn’t play any baseball at all before that.
And hardly any afterwards.
Want to talk about amazing? How about a poor defensive corner outfielder who has a career 117 wRC+. Zoinks!
Your lack of respect for Mookie is worrisome.
I’m I the only one who doesn’t like blocking Cecchinni long term? I mean, would it really be surprising if he can be better than Sandoval in 2016? Kiley has him a a .280/.350/.440…If a few more homers carry, that is essentially what Anthony Rendon did this season
They are going to move Cesepedes or Craig
Likely, but no one is giving up any assets of any value for Allen Craig.
I laughed when I saw Bogaerts for Hamels or Sale. 650ML PA’s later, it’s apparent that Bogaerts isn’t a star. Probably overinflated hype due to high park factors at both boston’s AA and AAA affiliates.
Thinking of a long term comp for Bogaerts, maybe Stephen Drew if/when he was healthy? Be realistic sox fan.
I laughed when I saw “hamels or sale”
To be fair he is 21, 6 years from probably peak is plenty of time to reach his potential.
650ML PA’s later, it’s apparent that Bogaerts isn’t a star.
lol
First, steamer projects him for 2.0 war next year, hardly the things of ‘stars’. His overall plate discipline isn’t horrible, but given that his fly ball distance was 269ft last year and the fact that AA and AAA parks for boston affiliates inflate HR’s by 10% or so, you have to think that 10-15HRs is a top for him. Which means to create value he’s got to hit, and while his LD% is ok, it’s not Freddie Freeman at 20%. He doesn’t have blazing speed, so a .306 BABIP seems reasonable. Unless he really improves the Swinging strike % and overall Ks and BBs I just don’t see the great value. But, maybe moving him from SS to 3b hurt his value, but at this point you have to really wonder if he’ll ever be a 4 war player, don’t you?
at this point you have to really wonder if he’ll ever be a 4 war player, don’t you?
Of course. You had to wonder that before last year, too. And before that.
What you didn’t have to do then and don’t have to do now is draw firm conclusions about his ceiling or the likelihood of him reaching it.
He is 22. At that age, the best prospects in baseball are supposed to be dominating AA. He’s going into a sophomore MLB season.
Does that guarantee he’s a star or ever will be? No, who said that? But it both significantly increases the likelihood of that outcome *and* means that traditional stat-line analyses by themselves are inappropriate.
Yeah, Bogaerts is young so _of course_ he’s going to improve. That optimism doesn’t address the facts of OK-not-great production summarized by the previous commenter. Xander has a TON of improvement to do to ever be a star, his power numbers were always over-estimated in the minors, and he is more likely than not NOT to stick at SS given he size.
Pedro Sandoval is, to me, Bogaerts upside. A couple three years from now. That’s a guy who can help you win, sure—if Bogaerts improves to that, ’cause he isn’t close to it now, especially on D. The problem with using Bogaerts as the linchpin of a deal for an ace pitcher coming back is that over those 650 PAs there was _nothing_ Xander did that spoke to star ability. He didn’t adapt well to an obvious position switch. He didn’t adjust at the plate. He didn’t improve over the course of the season. He never had a salient hot streak. He didn’t hit for particularly good power at any point, which is unsurprising given his unspectacular LD% and batted ball distance. Opposing pitchers seemed to handle him well. I’m not saying he’s useless or deeply flawed in his skills (hello, JBJ), but there’s nothing that looks like a star in that season. Yeah, Rogers Hornsby sucked his first couple of seasons in the Bigs too. In Bogaerts minor league trajectory I saw flaws and expected some struggles, and I hate to say it but Bogaerts underperformed restrained expectations. He doesn’t get a mulligan on those results, especially over that number of PAs.
Other than ‘young, and a great athlete,’ I don’t see a lot to dream on. Would I be interested in Bogaerts commingling to my team? Well probably, if the cost back wasn’t what Boston’s going to ask. But then again, no: Chris Taylor and Brad Miller both had fewer holes and more production in far fewer plate appearances, and that despite a terrible first two months at the plate by Miller. They are both older, but along with that they both have solidified their skill sets so one has a clearer idea what they have to offer. Yeah, that bum nobody talks about as a one-for-one for Sale or Hamels, Brad Miller, outperformed ‘future HOFer’ Xander Bogaerts in 2014 in 2/3 the PAs. But don’t worry, “Bogaerts will catch up in a few years.”
Yeah, Bogaerts is young so _of course_ he’s going to improve.
Why are you making shit up?
I know you’re an established scouting savant and beyond that very clearly understand probabilistic modeling, so I obviously discard the consensus professional opinion and trust yours instead, but why do you need to make shit up?
OK, with this kind of logjam now official, here’s what the Red Sox should do:
1. Trade Cespedes for a pitcher.
2. Trade Castillo, Napoli, and Cecchini for Hamels and….wait for it…Ryan Howard. Seriously, if you don’t have a ton left to chase Lester, you go for Hamels by letting the Phils convert their $60 million albatross into a $70 million lottery ticket for the next six years. Napoli holds the fort for Maikel Franco for one year, Cecchini slots into 3B, and for the Red Sox, you platoon Howard and Craig at 1B unless it gets so bad you need to put another bat there (or you can also use Nava as a 1B option)
Crazy idea of the day, but with the recent flurry of moves it might actually make some sense.
Hamels plus Howard is basically hamels signed at 5 years 170 million you realize? Would rather sign Schererville at 7/175
That’s one way of looking at it, and I’d probably agree with you on preferring Scherzer if the Red Sox felt they had payroll room for him too.
But if they don’t, after the $40 million/year they just spent on Sandoval and Ramirez, they need to get creative about finding a way to add a starter using their surplus of position players. The premise of my crazy idea was that you move your most expensive current player (Castillo) whose surplus value is too big of a wild card for a win-now team like Boston. My personal view is that Castillo probably was an overpay based upon the current market for Cuban players.
Of course, it would behoove Boston to insist upon some part (say $20 million) of Howard’s remaining salary to be picked up by the Phils. I think the payroll flexibility from a deal like this vs a 7/175 on Scherzer can keep the Red Sox from becoming like the Dodgers are now, with Hamels only under contract for the next 4 years.
It’s really Hamels for 5/$81.5MM, after the salary arbitrage of absorbing Howard and shedding Castillo and Napoli. Which is not a bad deal.
Props to TZ for designing a trade that my heart hates, because it wants the Phils’ to turn Hamels into sexy young guys with lots of upside to dream about, but which my head concedes does make a fair amount of sense. (I love Cecchini, but his upside is unsexy, as is the fate of all OBP-first guys without plus speed and only moderate power.) It probably needs a little sweetening, either with a lottery ticket that can be dreamed or a potential innings-eater to replace Hamels from the Sox supply of MLB-ready pitchers whom haven’t clicked. (Allen Webster’s been roughed up enough to fit that role, for instance.)
The Webster/De La Rosa type of guy is exactly what the Phils should try to get as a throw-in, just to help their odds of winning some “lottery tickets”.
I also wonder if trading Hamels would make Utley and/or Rollins more willing to waive their no-trade clauses if they’re staring at a rebuilding process over the balance of their careers. Just as the Red Sox have incentive to get the ball rolling on moving some of their logjam, the Phils have to consider whether they want to kick off a major rebuilding process or just try to find opportunities to grow younger.
Are you saying the Phillies eat all of Howard’s contract there? Because if not, as a Phillies fan, I’d set fire to things if Amaro turned down that deal. If the Phils just traded Hamels for Rusney I think I’d be fairly ok with that.
I’d say the Phillies eat enough of Howard’s contract so that Hamels + Howard = no surplus value.
Which makes it a good deal if you like Rusney Castillo and/or Garin Cecchini.
I have never, to my recollection, seen a more bizarre surreality than that particular proposal, in all its facets. TZ brotha man, you’ve got a _great_ future ahead on you as a cartoon scenarist: Don’t delay, opportunity knocks but once.
The Boxos give up three talents that are actually, y’know, valuable, for one very good and very expensive player, and a tremendous void of useless suck. At that rate, why doesn’t Boston just trace Cecchini (who’s never played in the majors but this is a hypothetical) and one year of Napoli and DFA Castillo to clear the same amount of salary space? Because Philly wouldn’t do this without shedding Howard’s contract? Wait, did I miss somehow the obligation of Boston to be a charitable supporter of Philadelphia fans??
I get dizzy just huffing the fumes of this one, friend.
Am I crazy to think that Hanley is a good buy low at 5 for 90 mil? When healthy hes one of the best offensive players in the game and I think eventually when he moves to DH or 1b he will be able to stay on the field
Right now, with his spotty health and defense, he’s actually not that far behind Cabrera for overall value as an elite righty bat. The length and the dollars both leave some real upside for the Red Sox, even if he quickly becomes a full-time DH.
Also,
Question for you guys. At this point would you rather have Manny Machado or Xander Boegarts?
Big fan of Xander, but I think I have to go with the guy who already proved it.
Ditto. I’d put Machado at #3 among the young studs of the game after Trout and Harper.
There are real concerns with Machado, foremost of which is whether he has chronic health concerns. But I’d take him over Xander in a heartbeat. Bogaerts could well end up better, but the available evidence all runs the other way.
Yes, but which edition of HanRam are the BoSox getting? The HOF-esque 2006-20110 version? The 2011-2012 version? On the wrong side of 30 and a lot less lithe than the mid-20s Hanley, I find it hard to envision him being more than a 2-3 WAR player from age 31-33, and less so thereafter. His recent injury history forecasts that we should not expect more than 130 to 140 games played too often over the life of this contract.
Why wouldn’t “the 2013-2014 version” be one of the choices? That’s the most recent, and therefore most likely, version.
Ah, but the ice cold “08/30/14-09/03/14 Hanley” when he went 0-for-21, or the torrid “04/02/14-04/11/14 Hanley” who went 12-for-30 with 2 HR, 6 2B, and 7 R?!?
Odd sampling choices there.
I hope this means the Red Sox are in play to sign Scherzer and Shields also… or somebody else that was offered a QO.
1st round pick = protected
2nd round pick = Sandoval
3rd round pick = Hanley
4th round pick = Scherzer
5th round pick = Shields
They’ve got to give up less than anybody else out there in terms of the picks…
This, to some extent, assumes that a 4th round pick and a 2nd round pick have substantially different values. My understanding of current state of analysis is that they don’t, and so BOS may actually have more value in their 4th round pick than e.g. CHN does their 2nd round pick — being out three picks hurts more than one!
Looks like its actually 4 years, $88 mil with an option year. Looks like Hanley got paid. 120 comments working off premature information is always amusing.
And the fifth year is a vesting option. If the Red Sox make Ramirez into a leftfielder, than they are making him closer to a two-win player with the hit he’ll take in the positional adjustment.
Perhaps the Red Sox can put Ramirez in contact with a really good chemist to mitigate the effects of aging on his ever-growing but fragile frame.
This is rough, but Steamer has Ramirez as basically the same offensive player as Ryan Braun (both are age 31). Ramirez was projected to have a 3.8 WAR as a poor SS, while Braun is projected to have a 2.8 WAR as a fair-to-poor OF.
So if Ramirez can reproduce Braun’s value as an OF, he’s worth about 2.5 – 3.0 WAR per season.
(And no, I didn’t choose Braun because of your last sentence BRH.)
After years of unsuccessful treatments, Napoli finally had off-season surgery to correct obstructive sleep apnea.
I’m an apnea sufferer (complex apnea, which they’ve just discovered how to treat) and there are days I don’t have the energy to go shopping. It’s reasonable to think that sleep quality also affects fine motor skills, like hitting a baseball. So there’s some chance that any trade of Napoli would be selling at least a bit low. You would have to be very confident about re-investing his salary elsewhere to make that work.
It seems as though Cespedes for Ian Kennedy may makes sense. The Padres have been vocal about wanting to add another bat. The Red Sox have been vocal about wanting to add a starting pitcher. The only thing that may hold that deal back is if the Padres want a guy with more than 1 year of team control.
another solution is to send Xander back down to AAA for another season or two, while Hanley can still stick at SS for another year or two. You know delay his clock and save some $$. Instead of letting XB hit FA at 26, sacrifice two 23-24 year old 2-WAR season from him now and get 2-4 or 5 WAR season at his controlled age 27 and 28 seasons. 4-6 free WARs from Xander = savings of 30-40 some million.
It is what smart teams like the Rays/As are doing nowadays with guys like donaldson and zobrist. Cost controlled and cheap for their primes.
Look what the Braves did with jason heyward. Promoted him too early, let him struggle. Now he is gonna cost too much and deal him away for scraps. Not so smart huh.
The only reason not to do this is that nobody does it for good reason. Xander didn’t play badly enough to warrant being sent down. He won’t learn to hit major league pitching in the minors. His trade value is utterly tanked by sending him down for an extended period of time. A season of Xander’s service time is completely wasted, so there’s the opportunity cost of that. Bogaerts doesn’t conduct himself like a guy who will take that action well.
Seriously, if you’re not going to start Bogaerts then trade him now. Which is, actually the most logical explanation for these twin free agent signings, and my first hypothesis regarding what’s coming. HanRam sucks at SS, but Bogaerts isn’t sticking there long term anyway. Hanley playing between Sandoval and Pedroia limits the defensive cost some. To me, Bogaerts is going for a pitcher, probably in a blockbuster package. Which might well be best for Boston, actually.
Bogaerts, Napoli, Nava, and Owens/Johnson for Marcell Ozuna, Andrew Heaney, and Hechevarria?? I’m not saying that’s a good proposal, but it’s one that interests me. The fact is, there are packages which would make sense once one expands the frame past the obvious suspects. These two orgs have a history of big but successful trades at least, even if the faces are now completely different on both sides of the speaker phone.
Strasburg for bogaerts,really? Bogearts is a great prospect but sale and Strasburg are young, cost controlled! all star caliber aces. The nats would laugh at that offer. Bogaerts may or may not become great but right now bogaerts just came off a 0.2 war rookie season. Granted he will likely improve and has a good chance to even become an all star but you are simply not dealing a cheap, young ace unless you get a super offer ( say 2 pprospects like bogaerts).
The cost and youth is really the x factor here,if sale was a 30 yo ace making 20 millions that deal could happen but not like this. In the real world hamels is a solid return for bogaerts.
That being said I don’t think bogaerts is traded at all, because nobody will offer them a cost controlled all star and they would not want to dump him for an expensive ssoon declining player.