Hellickson and Lincecum Strike ‘Em Out Differently
The Angels and Padres hitters did not have a good time yesterday. While they both did manage to eke out some runs, they spent most of the day walking back to the dugout. The pitchers opposing them, Jeremy Hellickson and Tim Lincecum, had their best strikeout stuff, combining for 23 Ks. Yet their starts couldn’t have been much more different. In fact, it might have been Hellickson who provided the more dominant performance.
A quick glance at their pitching lines might make this sound like a crazy notion.
Lincecum: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
Hellickson: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
How can 10 strikeouts through 5.2, with 3 earned runs allowed, ever be better than 13 strikeouts through seven with just one earned? By most measures, it is not. Lincecum’s performance tops the charts by nearly every measure: fewer runs, more strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer hits. Lincecum even struck out a greater percentage of the batters he faced. Yet Hellickson leads in a number of categories that signal a streak of pure dominance.
While Lincecum did record 13 strikeouts, he only induced 12 swings and misses. Three of those strikeouts were looking, so he only got two swings and misses that didn’t result in strike three. Intuitively, this seems like the work of a veteran. Set them up, and then when you have two strikes go for the kill. Lincecum used his four-seamer, changeup, and slider to induce 10 of those 12 swings and misses. Hellickson, on the other hand, induced 17 swings and misses. He threw 99 pitches total, meaning he got batters to whiff just over 17 percent of the time. Lincecum threw 105 pitches, meaning he got a swing and miss on 11.4 percent.
The biggest difference between the two was how they attacked hitters. Lincecum leaned on his fastball, and for good reason. He was averaging 92 mph, and maxed out at 95.4. He experienced the least success with the pitch, via the linear weights score on BrooksBaseball.net, but it helped him set up hsi changeup and sldier, which were his knockout pitches. Hellickson threw more fastballs than any other pitch, sure, but his was far less intimidating, averaging under 90 and maxing at 91. Yet it set up his changeup and curveball well, as he got a combined 17 swings and misses with those pitches. It’s no surprise, then, that the Angels did all of their damage off of Hellickson’s fastball.
It almost feels as though Lincecum was the amped up rookie, lighting up the scoreboard with his fastball, while Hellickson was the crafty veteran, mixing and matching his pitches and fooling hitters out of their shoes. The opposite isn’t exactly true — Hellickson doesn’t light up the scoreboard with his fastball, and Lincecum has enough stuff that he needn’t necessarily become crafty — but it does feel like a role reversal of sorts. It is definitely a sign of encouragement for both. Lincecum still has that overpowering stuff, while Hellickson has shown the savvy of a veteran many years his senior.
Every so often baseball gives us a treat when a pitcher induces whiffs and buckles knees on his way to a dominant performance. To get two such performances in the same day is just heaven. That goes even more so when the two pitchers work in different ways. We have a day full of games, but if you take a break from the action make sure to watch Hellickson’s 10Ks and Lincecum’s 13. It’s quite amazing how differently they came about their overwhelming outings.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
Hellickson pitches like J Weaver. 88-92, get ahead and ability to throw both FB and variety of off-speed stuff for strikes.
Difference is that Weaver (Jered) can throw in the mid-90s if he wants.
FYI Lincecum had 15 swings-and-misses and Hellickson 19. Brooks doesn’t always catch them all.
Make that 20 for Hellickson
Hellickson was scary. Trumbo took him to the wall. Callaspo just missed a 2nd home run. His breaking stuff was marvelous to watch, but that straight-looking 90 mph fastball looked awfully hittable. It was my first time seeing him pitch a full game, so maybe the fastball velocity and/or command was off. I hope that’s true b/c what I saw yesterday would get launched all over the place in AL East away games at less friendly parks. I do feel compelled to reiterate how entertaining his breaking pitches are to watch. Looking forward to seeing him pitch many more games.
I agree… his curve looks like a 80, but his fastball is not even a major league pitch. It is slow with no movement. 40-80-65 pitcher with like 70 command. His weakest link is going to drag him down
His curve isn’t an 80 lol
You describe both pitchers as predominantly using their fastballs, and using their changeups as a strikeout pitch. Can you elaborate as to how they were striking batters out differently? Is it a power vs command issue?
You’re bending over yourself here:
You say of Lincecum: “Intuitively, this seems like the work of a veteran.” Then you go on to say “It almost feels as though Lincecum was the amped up rookie, lighting up the scoreboard with his fastball.”
It’s quite contradictory, and I don’t think you draw a good conclusion here. While ‘learning to pitch’ and thus utilize your offspeed pitches more is a sign of maturity, just because you aren’t doing that doesn’t mean you’re a rookie. There are plenty of veterans who rely primarily on their fastball.
Also, to make the assertion you did — “lighting up the scoreboard with his fastball” — you have to recognize how many fastballs he threw. He had a good fastball, for sure, but he’s thrown off-speed stuff in over 40% of his pitches so far.
A couple of minor quibbles, Hellickson had 20 swing strikes on the performance and he threw as many four-seam fastballs as curveballs with slightly less change-ups. Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but I thought I broke this down pretty nicely at DRB:
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/4/6/2095627/a-quick-look-at-what-hellboy-threw
Too bad it was all ruined by your obvious fandom of Scott Kazmir, the anti-Koufax!
Lincecum’s 4 seam fastball was as good as I’ve seen it since his rookie year. He was getting swing throughs up in the zone, which makes the high change and that ridiculous slider he’s developing that much more nasty. I think the black socks are here to stay..
Also, it’s still April, when pitchers are still building up their arm strength so I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see Lincecum start touching 96-97 like he did in his rookie year next month.
I would seriously doubt Lincecum would hit 97. He like Cain, has sacrificed a tad velocity for control. I’m sure he is capable of it, but thats quite high even for him.
Lincecum doesn’t throw a 4-seamer, only a 2
Incorrect
http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-03-11/sports/28678621_1_split-fingered-fastball-fewer-fastballs-pitch
Lincecum can choose between a four-seam fastball (in which pitchers, generally, hold the ball across the seams) and a two-seam fastball (gripped on the seams). The choice can depend on whether the hitter is a lefty or righty. Usually, the straighter four-seamer is easier to control.
“It also depends on if my two-seamer looks like it has a little life on it or not,” he said. “If I want to throw a pitch that stays away from a righty, I’ll tend to throw a four-seamer, something that doesn’t come back to the middle of the plate, which is what I learned to stay away from after my first couple of years.
“I used to throw a whole bunch of two-seamers. I feel it is my primary fastball. But now I’m wanting to throw more strikes, have fewer walks, which is something I can control.”
It’s also possible that TL55 gets fewer whiffs because, by now, batters have given up swinging at certain pitches that he throws in certain counts.
For example, if he starts off on an 0-0 count with an inside fastball that you can’t hit, you’re better off not swinging. Same thing with his 1-2 low sliders. You can’t hit it anyway, so take it and hope it falls out of the zone.
I find it very difficult to believe that Hellickson has better “stuff” than Lincecum. Stuff being the combination of command, control, movement, and sequencing that causes hitters confusion or the the inability to make contact.
You could have made the case for Hellickson, just by saying “Everyone strikes out a lot of Padres”.
On the flip, the bottom 4 Angel hitters accounted for 11 K’s. Geez. The team K’d 15 times. For all we know it could have been the lighting/shading at the park.
There seems to be a lot of analysis on single games. Don’t get me wrong, I find it interesting and I could talk about it for days. But, i wouldn’t draw any conclusions about anything on a single game.
I’m gonna call “Bullpoop” on this fantastical romanticized conclusion (but in a buddylike way, Heh Heh).
The conclusion is that you can do a lot of damage by getting ahead with your fastball and locating a quality change-up, regardless of whether you’re 35 or 25. It’s not savvy, it’s a skillset. We can leave the “savvy” stuff for the Jack Morris’s that pitch to the score and whatnot.
Hellickson was promising last year for the same reason … he can get ahead with the 1, and put batters away with his change. Changing speeds with decent location (and there’s room for improvement with his location too). Lincecum just does the same thing only with more ability.
Guys used to develop a change-up once they started to lose velocity. Now some guys come to the majors because of their change-up. It may have been savvy two decades ago (or whenever Tanana and Moyer re-invented their careers). Now, it’s just a pitcher’s skillset.
Felix Hernandez is perhaps the best example. He’s not savvy. He’s just successful with a good fastball-change combo.
@CircleChange11 — I believe you are using an incorrect definition of “stuff.” You define it as “the combination of command, control, movement, and sequencing that causes hitters confusion or the the inability to make contact.” This definition is pretty much all-inclusive of pitching, which renders it functionally ineffectual. When most writers refer to “stuff,” they are discussing the varying actions a pitcher’s different pitches exhibit — not how they are used, or where they are placed. To use an example from recent Giants history: Merkin Valdez was considered to have excellent stuff, but his inability to command his pitches prevented him from achieving any success.
I agree with several above commenters who wonder at the point of this article. Great to see two great pitching performances get a little love, but I really don’t think there are any conclusions to be drawn from these performances — and certainly not the contradictory ones we got. But thanks, Joe, for the analysis and for shining some additional light on two fantastic outings.
Perhaps.
Essentially all baseball simulations, programs, etc use “stuff” as an overall rating of how the pitcher puts things together.
As a player, we most generally used stuff to represent movement or break.
I can go either way in its usage.
Bottom line: HellBoy and the Freak have great combination of movement, location, and change of speeds.
Now that high velocity guys have started throwing changeups, instead of leaving it for the “soft tossers”, it’s just not fair.
People have been criticising Lincecum for the drop in speed in his fastballs over the last two seasons. Now he regained his speed and you said he pitched like a rookie. Darn it if he did and darn it if he didn’t.
Catch 22’d
You nailed it.
after the first batter I could tell Lincecum was going to strike out at least 10. He had everything working the slider, change, fastball, even the curve. I find it hard to believe that Hellickson had the better start than Lincecum.
Case. Closed.
Hellickson is 24,Lincecum is 26 lol
no start in which a pitcher lasts 5.2 innings and gives up 3 runs is better than a start that lasts 7 and only gives up 1 run, regardless of how many strikeouts.
Sadly I did not catch enough of Hellickson’s start to judge how he pitch, but I did catch almost all of Lincecum’s and he looked like no rookie to me. All of his pitches that day were quite nasty and the way he mixed up his pitches to the hitters gave them zero chance. It had to be one of the most dominating performances I have seen in quite awhile, even if it was against the Padres.
On another note, is calling a rookie pitcher such as Hellickson crafty really a compliment? When you are a rookie this is probably when your fastball is going to be close to your peak, especially for a 24 yr, and being compared to a crafty veteran (Andy Pettitte pops to mind) means that you don’t neccesarily have good enough stuff to get hitters out, unless you can keep them off balanced and from all reports Hellickson’s stuff, especially his 70 change, is indicative of that he can get by on stuff to a certain extent.
Yep, watch the first inning, Lincecum sure looked like a rook to me.
Just because you have a flashy heater doesn’t mean you should be shy about using it.
Not taking anything away from Hellickson, but it seems like you made your conclusion before you actually examined the evidence, and then tried to tailor your article to fit your preconceived verdict.
Just about any way you look at it, Timmy was more dominant.
The linked videos only shows the stike three pitches, but i was really surprised by how many hitters completely broke down mid-swing on Lincecum K’s.. another sign of total domination.
It would be interesting to know how many times that happened overall.
It could be because Hellickson is a relatively new pitcher in the league and they thought that being aggressive would be a better strategy against him. Couple that with the fact that Lincecum is more established, and they know his tendencies a bit better.
What a crappy article! Your facts directly contradict your conclusion. Both pitched quite similarly.
This article is a major stretch.
Lincecum was facing a squad that he has squared off against numerous times and still just destroyed them. It doesn’t compare to a team facing a guy for the first time. The pitcher always has an advantage the first time through. Let the Angels see Hellickson 14 times like the Padres have faced Lincecum and see if he gets 20 swing throughs. There are no secrets between Lincecum and the Pads. Right now Hellickson has the upper hand the first time through the league. Often times that will catch up to a pitcher in the second half when he has faced a team more than once and his tendencies have been scouted. Hellickson has solid stuff, but doesn’t compare in any way to Lincecum’s. It’s unfair to even write this article and suggest that it does at this point.
Things to note on Lincecum: He is 15 pounds heavier than he started the season last year. He has added muscle with his new workout program and that may explain the steady velocity. It was awesome to see him hit 95+ on the gun and cruise consistently at 94. Last year he seemed to be at 90-92 most of the time. Buster Posey said he had the best stuff he has ever seen from Lincecum against the Padres. Posey didn’t catch him in his Cy Young seasons or when he was hitting 97 consistently, but it still suggests that Lincecum might be in for a monster year.
um this article doesn’t mention the fact that hellickson ld rate (30%) was greater than his gb rate (23%), while lincecum posted a solid 45 % ground ball rate.