History, Peaks and Mike Trout

Looking back on it, I think I took LeBron James for granted during his time in Cleveland.

When a player reaches a certain level of greatness, this can be a natural human response. You can only hear or read about one excelling at such a high level for so long before it starts to seem like old news. I wish I had gone to more Cavaliers games before James did a thing on TV that made me stop acknowledging his existence in the NBA, or really the existence of the NBA in general. He is, obviously, an incredibly special athlete who played right in my backyard, and I took him for granted.

You might be tired of hearing or reading about Mike Trout, but you really shouldn’t be. Don’t take this one for granted. Mike Trout is, obviously, an incredibly special athlete and, really, enough can’t be said about him.

A few things happened on Tuesday night: 1.) I attended the Indians vs. Angels game in celebration of my 23rd birthday. This was a day I circled on the calendar as soon as the MLB schedule came out, because I felt the baseball gods had given me a personal gift by allowing me the opportunity to see the world’s best baseball player on my birthday. 2.) I spent the day fretting about by Wednesday FanGraphs post as I am still in a state of laptop purgatory while I wait for my new, not broken MacBook to arrive in the mail. 3.) Mike Trout hit two more home runs and reminded me of a table I made long before I became a FanGraphs writer, simply because I was curious about Mike Trout’s place in history just two-plus seasons into his unprecedented career.

Mike Trout had arguably the greatest rookie season in MLB history two years ago and then followed it up with an even better one. After Tuesday night’s game, Trout is again tied for the major league lead in WAR and is projected for another 10-win season. His wRC+ is the highest of his career. Mike Trout, somehow, could still be getting better. We don’t know how the rest of this season will pan out, but we do have projections and, as Dave Cameron recently pointed out, you should trust the projections.

After two 10-win seasons, Mike Trout is projected to be right there again. It goes without saying, that is absolutely remarkable. And that’s before you even start to factor in that he’s still only 22 years old, which somewhat pains me to write on the evening I turn 23.

It started out with me wondering where Trout’s first three seasons may rank among baseball’s greatest peaks. It turned into me being fascinated by the peaks of MLB players throughout generations of baseball history. What follows is a (hopefully) complete, entirely sortable table of the 50 greatest three-year peaks in MLB history, by WAR, since the start of the live-ball era in 1920. I did this all by hand, so I may have missed a guy or two (and if I did, please let me know), but this should be a pretty comprehensive list. I used Trout’s first two seasons plus his updated ZiPS WAR projection. What one finds, among other things, is that Mike Trout is well on his way to one of the greatest three-year stretches the MLB has ever seen, trailing only Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Rogers Hornsby, Willie Mays and Ted Williams. Not bad company.

Please, play around with this table. That’s why it’s here. There is a lot of fun to be had with it. I find it interesting to sort by year to see which players defined each generation. Sort by age to find the insane disparity between when players peaked. Athletes are crazy. Eddie Mathews peaked when he was 21. Willie Mays didn’t peak until he was 32. Sort by position to create your own “Mount Rushmore” of each position. Sort by wRC+, Def or BsR to see how some of the game’s greatest players created their value. Check out the honorable mentions list to see where Trout’s first two seasons compare to the three-year peaks of some of the game’s greats. Or how some of the game’s current players, such as Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria and Miguel Cabrera fare. Just go crazy.

Anyway, enough talking. I’ll let you have your fun with it as you may. Enjoy:

Player	Team(s)	WAR	Years	Age	Pos	wRC+	Def	BsR	HR	SB
Babe Ruth	NYY	35.7	1926-28	31-33	RF	209	-0.7	-5.6	161	22
Barry Bonds	SFG	35.0	2001-03	36-38	LF	231	-8.3	-3.5	164	29
Mickey Mantle	NYY	32.7	1955-57	23-25	CF	199	+13.5	+6.6	123	34
Rogers Hornsby	STL	31.5	1920-22	24-26	2B	192	+16.7	-2.1	72	42
Willie Mays	SFG	31.0	1963-65	32-34	CF	178	+43.8	+3.1	137	36
Ted Williams	BOS	30.7	1946-48	27-29	LF	202	-15.0	-0.7	95	4
Mike Trout*	LAA	30.4	2012-14	20-22	CF	172	+22.9	+25.3	92	112
Jimmie Foxx	PHI-A	30.0	1932-34	24-26	1B	186	-5.1	-2.2	150	16
Lou Gehrig	NYY	29.5	1927-29	24-26	1B	187	-8.0	-7.7	109	18
Joe Morgan	CIN	29.1	1974-76	30-32	2B	174	+26.7	+25.3	66	185
Alex Rodriguez	SEA/TEX	27.1	2000-02	24-26	SS	158	+40.3	+5.6	150	42
Stan Musial	STL	26.8	1948-50	27-29	LF	182	-10.8	+2.3	103	15
Carl Yastrzemski	BOS	26.1	1967-69	27-29	LF	166	+36.8	+0.8	107	38
Joe DiMaggio	NYY	25.7	1939-41	24-26	CF	176	+19.9	-1.0	91	8
Mike Schmidt	PHI	25.7	1974-76	24-26	3B	150	+55.9	+1.1	112	66
Ron Santo	CHC	25.6	1965-67	25-27	3B	152	+43.9	-1.6	94	8
Ernie Banks	CHC	25.5	1958-60	27-29	SS	144	+70.2	-2.2	133	7
Albert Pujols	STL	25.5	2003-05	23-25	1B	174	-23.4	+15.4	130	26
Jackie Robinson	BKN	25.4	1949-51	30-32	2B	152	+51.8	+11.7	49	74
Wade Boggs	BOS	25.4	1985-87	27-29	3B	160	+26.6	-3.5	40	3
Ken Griffey Jr.	SEA	25.3	1996-98	26-28	CF	148	+49.3	+5.7	161	51
Duke Snider	BKN	24.8	1953-55	26-28	CF	167	+10.3	-0.2	124	31
Arky Vaughan	PIT	24.2	1934-36	22-24	SS	167	+18.3	+2.9	40	20
Eddie Mathews	MIL	24.1	1953-55	21-23	3B	167	+14.7	+0.4	128	14
Rickey Henderson	NYY/OAK	24.0	1988-90	29-31	LF	150	+24.1	+31.3	46	235
George Sisler	STL-B	24.0	1920-22	27-29	1B	163	-2.7	+12.1	39	128
Cal Ripken Jr.	BAL	23.6	1983-85	22-24	SS	139	+60.7	-2.8	80	4
Jason Giambi	OAK/NYY	23.5	2000-02	29-31	1B	184	-39.6	-5.0	122	6
Charlie Gehringer	DET	23.5	1934-36	31-33	2B	141	+45.1	-1.6	45	26
Chase Utley	PHI	23.4	2007-09	28-30	2B	141	+49.6	+15.7	86	46
Mel Ott	NYG	23.4	1936-38	27-29	RF	172	+5.3	+1.9	100	15
Hank Aaron	MIL	23.3	1961-63	27-29	RF	166	+8.2	+5.5	123	67
Jeff Bagwell	HOU	22.5	1997-99	29-31	1B	164	-12.5	+3.7	119	80
Gary Carter	MON	22.3	1982-84	28-30	C	137	+73.8	-2.3	73	5
Lou Boudreau	CLE	22.2	1946-48	28-30	SS	138	+68.1	-2.3	28	10
George Brett	KCR	22.2	1978-80	25-27	3B	154	+39.7	+2.1	56	55
Mike Piazza	LAD/FLA/NYM	22.2	1996-98	27-29	C	166	+12.8	-0.7	108	6
Johnny Bench	CIN	22.1	1972-74	24-26	C	138	+52.9	-0.5	98	15
Rod Carew	MIN	22.0	1975-77	29-31	2B/1B	159	+5.6	+5.1	37	107
Dick Allen	PHI	22.0	1964-66	22-24	3B	160	-9.3	+1.6	89	28
Hank Greenberg	DET	22.0	1937-39	26-28	1B	159	-14.2	-1.2	131	23
Scott Rolen	PHI/STL	21.9	2002-04	27-29	3B	140	+58.3	+2.0	93	25
Harry Heilmann	DET	21.9	1923-25	28-30	RF	163	-14.1	+3.4	41	28
Ralph Kiner	PIT	21.8	1947-49	24-26	LF	164	-11.8	+1.0	145	8
Tris Speaker^	CLE	21.7	1921-23	33-35	CF	167	-0.6	+2.1	31	18
Willie McCovey	SFG	21.7	1968-70	30-32	1B	179	-35.7	+0.6	120	4
Frank Robinson	CIN	21.6	1960-62	24-26	RF	165	-9.1	+3.8	107	53
Roberto Clemente	PIT	21.5	1966-68	31-33	RF	153	+21.7	+1.1	70	18
Robin Yount	MIL	21.5	1982-84	26-28	SS	144	+27.4	+3.1	62	40
Joe Gordon	NYY	21.5	1941-43	26-28	2B	134	+64.1	-4.3	59	26

*Includes 2014 updated ZiPS Projection

^Actual peak occurred 1912-14 (28.5 WAR)

Honorable mentions: Andruw Jones (21.5), Johnny Mize (21.5), Bobby Grich (21.4), Evan Longoria (21.3), Joe Cronin (21.3), Mark McGwire (21.2), Mike Trout+ (21.1), Miguel Cabrera (21.1), Joe Medwick (21.1), Sammy Sosa (21.0), Todd Helton (20.9), Craig Biggio (20.8), Darrell Evans (20.8), Willie Stargell (20.7), Snuffy Stirnweiss (20.7), Frank Thomas (20.6), George Foster (20.6), Andrew McCutchen (20.4), Al Rosen (20.4), Chipper Jones (20.4), Jim Edmonds (20.2), Luis Gonzalez (20.2), Ryne Sandberg (20.1), Andre Dawson (20.0), Larry Doby (20.0), David Wright (20.0), Tim Raines (19.9), Carlos Beltran (19.9), Frankie Frisch (19.9), Billy Herman (19.8), Bobby Abreu (19.7), Goose Goslin (19.6), Hanley Ramirez (19.6), Tony Perez (19.5), Luke Appling (19.5), Graig Nettles (19.5), Kenny Lofton (19.4), Don Mattingly (19.4), Ivan Rodriguez (19.4), Ken Boyer (19.4), Eddie Murray (19.3), Brooks Robinson (19.2), Pete Rose (19.1), Jeff Kent (19.1), Rico Petrocelli (19.1), Edgar Martinez (19.0), Robinson Cano (19.0).

+Two seasons.