Hitter Contact-Quality Report: New Qualifiers

Over the last few weeks in this space, we’ve been evaluating regular position players’ contact quality utilizing granular data such as plate appearance outcome frequencies, exit speed and launch angle. (Catchers represented the last installment in that series.) Over that time, players not included in our original analysis have overtaken previous incumbents in terms of total plate appearances. Today, we’ll add players who did so as of July 4 to the mix. Next time, we’ll look at newly qualified pitchers.

The data examined today runs through July 4. Players are separated by league, and are listed in Adjusted Production order. Adjusted Production expresses, on a scale where 100 equals average, what a hitter “should have” produced based on the exit speed/launch angle of each ball put in play. Each player’s Adjusted Contact Score, which weeds out the strikeouts and walks and states what each player should have produced on BIP alone, is also listed. Here goes:

Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, wRC+ and Adjusted Production, which incorporates the exit speed/angle data. Each hitter’s Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each hitter’s individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

Cells are also color-coded. If a hitter’s value is two standard deviations or more higher than average, the field is shaded red. If it’s one to two STD higher than average, it’s shaded orange. If it’s one-half to one STD higher than average, it’s shaded dark yellow. If it’s one-half to one STD less than average, it’s shaded blue. If it’s over one STD less than average, it’s shaded black. Ran out of colors at that point. On the rare occasions that a value is over two STD lower than average, we’ll mention it if necessary in the text.

It should be noted that individual hitters’ BIP frequency and authority figures correlate quite well from year to year, with one notable exception. As with pitchers, individual hitters’ liner rates fluctuate quite significantly from year to year, for all but a handful of hitters with a clear talent (or lack thereof) for squaring up the baseball.

Projecting performance based on BIP speed/angle opens us up to a couple biases that we didn’t need to address when evaluating pitchers. Pitchers face a mix of pull and opposite field-oriented hitters, more and less authoritative hitters, etc. Hitters are who they are each time they step up to the plate, and we must choose whether or not to address their individual tendencies.

I have adjusted the projected ground-ball performance for hitters who meet two criteria. First, they’ve recorded over five times as many grounders to the pull side than to the opposite field and, second, they exhibit a resulting deficiency in actual versus projected grounder performance. Such hitters’ projected grounder performance was capped at their actual performance level. Such hitters’ Adjusted Contact Scores and Adjusted Production figures are in red fonts.

I have decided not to adjust for the other primary factor that can skew actual versus projected performance based on exit speed/angle — namely, player speed. We’re attempting to assess hitter contact quality here; let’s keep speed/athleticism separate. As a result, we’ll see some slow, hard-hitting-to-all-fields sluggers overperform on this metric, and some more athletic players underperform. Contact quality is just part of offensive baseball; let’s attempt to isolate and evaluate it on its own.

While Robbie Grossman is the most productive of our AL add-ons, he doesn’t project as the one with the brightest future, over the near, intermediate or long term. His walk rate is exceptional, and serves as the foundation of a high-floor package that should see him stick around as at least a complementary contributor. He was also pop up-free as of July 4: a huge plus, especially for someone with such a high fly-ball rate. About that fly-ball rate… it’s maxed out, puffing up his current power numbers a bit. His liner rate is also due for some negative regression. An even bigger driver of his current numbers is good fortune on both fly balls (139 Unadjusted vs. 90 Adjusted Contact Score) and liners (107 vs. 88).

Logan Forsythe has the brightest short-range prognosis of the AL add-ons. He meets the defensive requirements of an up-the-middle position, and hits the ball like a corner guy. His K/BB profile is adequate, and his pop-up rate is low. His numbers are somewhat inflated by a high liner rate, which should be expected to regress. Through July 4 he was quite lucky on grounders, batting .306 AVG-.388 SLG, for a 200 Unadjusted Contact Score, while his authority supports only a 102 mark. There could be more power to come, as he strikes his fly balls well, and his fly-ball rate has plenty of room to grow.

The raw exit speed numbers would seem to suggest an Adjusted Contact Score higher than 86 for J.J. Hardy. His biggest issue is a lack of damage in the air. While his average fly-ball exit speed is in the average range, he hits an awful lot of fly balls in the upper range of the 75-94 mph “donut hole,” which almost exclusively produces outs. His Adjusted Contact Score in the air is a poor 59 despite that seemingly adequate authority level. He crushes his liners (114 Adjusted Contact Score) and grounders (170), and almost never whiffs, but the poor fly-ball production is tough to overcome. He’s a solid bat for his position, at least.

The arrival of Whit Merrifield brought the Omar Infante era to a close in Kansas City. I’m not particularly sanguine about the future prospects of Merrifield. He’s been reasonably productive, and a clear upgrade over his predecessor to date, but that’s largely due to his crazy high 28.8% liner rate, which is headed for a crash. Over his small BIP sample to date, he’s a rare player who hits the ball hardest in the air, and softest on the ground. That’s an “old player” characteristic. Oh, and he’s batting .395 AVG-.465 SLG on the ground (313 Unadjusted Contact Score). That’s going to change. I like the zero pop ups and the ability to use the field, but hate the low BB rate, and don’t see the overall bat package as that promising.

Despite possessing a historically great offense last season, the Blue Jays did carry an automatic out in Ryan Goins at second base. When he went down this year, they turned to his alter ego, Darwin Barney, who has actually done a nice job thus far. Don’t expect it to continue; it’s largely been driven by an elevated liner rate, and exaggerated performance (.762 AVG-.881 SLG, 120 Unadjusted Contact Score) on those liners. His low K rate should enable him to continue to least hit for a decent, but empty batting average. Like Merrifield, he hits his fly balls hardest and grounders weakest… but hits all BIP types pretty weakly. He’s operating at a personal best-case-scenario level at present.

Evan Gattis is likely better than the humble raw numbers he’s posted to date, as we can’t expect him to stumble along with a 15.9% liner rate forever. His K, pop-up and pull rates are all high, but not quite in the danger zone. He’s capable of driving the ball in the air much harder than he has to date, though playing catcher more often could have a power-draining effect over time.

Byron Buxton sure hasn’t looked like an elite prospect in his multiple cracks at the big leagues. First and most importantly, it’s almost impossible to overcome a K rate of nearly 40%, especially when coupled with such a minuscule BB rate. His numbers could actually be worse: his liner rate is elevated, and begging for regression, and he’s overproduced on both liners (134 Unadjusted vs. 99 Adjusted Contact Score) and grounders (163 vs. 120). His pop-up rate is also near the top of the scale. The tools are there, but Buxton would seem to be well served by another stint in Triple-A.

Not a particularly productive group. Most of the NL add-ons don’t strike out much, but don’t hit the ball very hard. Oh, and you Matt Adams fans… he still doesn’t qualify, as four Cardinal 1B/OFs still outpace him in plate appearances. We’ll probably catch up with him at year’s end.

While Yangervis Solarte is nowhere near as good as his current numbers, he is a pretty useful offensive player. His exceptional K/BB profile is his primary skill. His production to date has been inflated by overperformance on both fly balls (111 Unadjusted vs. 71 Adjusted Contact Score) and grounders (159 vs. 97). His slugging percentage is pumped up a bit by his relatively high fly-ball rate, but even with an overall Adjusted Contact Score below 100, Solarte can be a productive MLB regular.

James Loney has once again been displaying non-profile offense for his position in his latest tour as a Met. He is one of a relatively small number of players who consistently maintains a high liner rate. That, and his very low BB rate, is about the extent of his offensive positives. He has overperformed a bit on those liners (116 Unadjusted vs. 94 Adjusted Contact Score), driving his current actual production numbers a bit above career norms. The distance between Loney’s ceiling and floor is about as small as it can be for an MLB regular. Among regulars at his position, he’s destined to be in the less productive half.

Though Trayce Thompson has slumped a bit of late, there is plenty of hope for the future, especially given the great progress he’s shown in the recent past. His K and BB rates are under control, his liner rate is low and should be expected to positively regress, he hits the ball with authority to all fields and there is room for growth in his fly-ball rate. Nothing in his profile suggests star power, but he projects as a productive outfield piece moving forward.

Javier Baez remains an extremely talented youngster with substantial upside, but there is quite a bit of good fortune in his numbers to date. Through July 4, he was batting a ridiculous .833 AVG-1.233 SLG (177 Unadjusted Contact Score) on liners, despite authority that supports only a 96 mark. His extremely low BB rate remains his largest shortcoming. His solid overall numbers are obscuring a fairly surprising lack of authority in the air (also a 96 Adjusted Contact Score).

Gregor Blanco is what he is what he is: a slap hitter (36 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) whose offensive production reaches the acceptable level thanks to a strong K/BB profile. His liner rate tends to be above league average, keeping his batting average respectable. His pop-up rate is a little high for a non-fly-ball hitter, and he’s been pretty lucky on the ground this season (136 Unadjusted vs. 82 Adjusted Contact Score), so additional cracks are showing in his already limited arsenal.

Long-time replacement-level player Chase d’Arnaud has been getting an extended look at multiple positions for the replacement-level Braves. His actual production seems adequate on the surface, but it’s inflated by an extremely high liner rate which is due for substantial negative regression. His average fly-ball exit speed is over two STD below league average, and his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score of 33 is lower than Blanco’s. To top it off, he was hitting .371 AVG-.400 SLG (258 Adjusted Contact Score) on grounders through July 4, despite authority that supports only a 90 mark. To put it bluntly, he’s headed for a fall.

Wilmer Flores‘ floor is fairly high, as he strikes out quite infrequently, but his actual 2016 performance has been inflated by some good fortune. He’s overperformed on all three major BIP types to date: 57 Adjusted vs. 31 Unadjusted on fly balls, 116 vs. 88 on liners, and 108 vs. 80 on grounders. On top of everything, his fly-ball rate is quite high and is likely to decrease as we move forward. Expect a rough, floor-approaching second half from Flores.

The Braves are happy to have Ender Inciarte’s glove back in the lineup, but his bat has been a non-factor this season. Positives? He rarely strikes out, and uses the whole field; that gives him a shot to again post higher if relatively empty batting averages in the future. Authority-wise, he resides at the bottom of the scale, across BIP types. His coupling of a high pop-up and low fly-ball rate is not a positive one. His 25 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is actually the lowest of this offensively challenged group of add-ons.

Lastly, and perhaps leastly, we have Ben Revere. Good teams continue to run him out there in the leadoff spot at their considerable peril. He never whiffs and never pops up, so there should be a solid batting average foundation in place, but his utter lack of BIP authority and low BB rate far outweigh any positives. Just bring your outfielders in and dare the only one of this weak group of add-ons who hasn’t hit a fly ball over 100 mph this season to hit a ball over their heads. Don’t worry, he won’t.