FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/19/16

by Paul Swydan

July 19, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Stevo: CURLING!

9:01	Paul Swydan: I thought it was implied I meant Summer Olympic events, but Stevo is the kind of commenter that a lawyer dreams about.

9:02	Roadhog: How would you balance a Puig for Hill trade? Setbacks for Kershaw and Ryu should scare the Dodgers a bit.

9:02

Paul Swydan: There’s no way I would give up Puig for Rich Hill (I’m assuming that’s the Hill you mean). Hill exited this weekend with a blister, and has already had a DL stint. I don’t know that I’d be all that jazzed about giving up anything of value for him. Certainly not a current big leaguer like Puig.

9:02	Fork: 10 team Roto 15 active hitting/15 active pitching/10 bench slots so 400 active players. Would you trade Thor for Springer & JA Happ what about Thor for Wil Myers and Kyle Hendricks

9:03	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t do either of those deals unless you were convinced that Thor is broken, and I’m not convinced of that at all.

9:03	Brent J: In a 10×10 head 2 head league an want to add a high end SP or closer= trade springer or polanco and what type SP to target? Bum, arrieta, cueto, carrasco, salazar? Cody Allen

9:04	Paul Swydan: I think Polanco could get you in the discussion for those guys, but not necessarily Springer.

9:04	Michael: Trade Salazar (Keepable) for Pomeranz (Not keepable) and Edwin Encarnacion (Keepable) in a 12 team league? Competing this year

9:04	Paul Swydan: If you have the pitching depth necessary to float losing Salazar and Pomeranz, I guess. But I’m not crazy about that deal.

9:04	James M : Kluber was pulled after 95 pitches (7ip, 5h, 8k, 0r), Sale after 100 (8ip, 1h, 6k, 0r). Both teams lost. Intrigued to get thoughts if there’s any statistical backing to pull these guys seemingly so early.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I didn’t watch these games specifically, but in general, I think we’ve reached the point in the season where you need to be able to trust your best pitchers to go 120 pitches.

9:05	JalapEno: I’m in a keeper league with a snake draft (5 keepers = first five rounds). If we wanted to transition to an auction draft, how would we do it?

9:06

Paul Swydan: Just do it. It’ll be messy for a year, but everyone will get over it. In the league I used to play in, we would do the auction draft, and then teams had 48 hours to declare their keepers. We would name 4 new keepers each year, though keepers were tradeable, so the number of keepers per team varied wildly.

9:06	Michael: 12 team league, Bryce harper for kluber, raisel iglesias, and joey votto: who should say no?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Hopefully the Kluber/Iglesias/Votto team. I like Harper and all, but…

9:07	Archer>Picard: Bautista for Puig, who says no first?

9:07	Paul Swydan: That’s interesting. Probably the Blue Jays, but it’s a heck of an idea.

9:07	Archer>Picard: Do you think Ortiz saying the Red Sox should sign EE is tampering?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Not even remotely, no.

9:07	Paul Swydan: People are allowed to have opinions.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Tampering is Ortiz going to EE and saying “Don’t negotiate with other teams, just sign with the Red Sox, I’ll make sure they give you a good deal.”

9:08	Josh: Regarding Jose Abreu, are we now in “take what you can get and run” mode? He posted awful marks in the (awesome) hitter contact-quality report, and there’s nothing to really indicate him coming around, other than the middle-infielder-ish 11% HR/FB.

9:09	Paul Swydan: If you’re competing for a title, yes. If you’re out of it, I think hang tight. He has too much talent for this to continue, but I certainly understand your frustration if you’re competing for a title.

9:10	Dock Ellis: I floating around this trade idea, I think it’s perfect. Correa, Reed, and 2 high B prospects and two lower prospect for Trout. What says y’all?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think any Trout trade proposals need to be fully fleshed out. Unfortunately, Trout is the kind of franchise marquee star that it has to be a home run for the Astros to deal him, and while WE all know Correa is great, I don’t think he has that profile nationally yet.

9:11	A Tribe Called Kipnis: Is Tyler Skaggs worth a shot in deep AL leagues? He looked like he might be sort of good once upon a time, right?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yeah, take a shot for sure.

9:12	Dayton Moore Talking Head: Do the Royals add a marginal piece or two, go back, or sell off? Realistically, what could they get for impending free agents Volquez, Morales, or Hochevar?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Maybe they could get something for Hochevar, but not much in general. Which is why there’s no real point to them selling.

9:12	Palm Frond: If the Yankees make my dreams come true and unload whoever it takes to pick up Baez or Profar, is there any market for Starlin Castro at all?

9:13	Paul Swydan: I’m sure they could trade Castro, because talented middle infielders are always in short supply. But obviously they’d be selling low.

9:14	Tucson is for Lovers: Tungsten or Aluminum?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Aluminum

9:14	Name: Schwarber: Fat, slow, hurt, can’t play a position and can’t hit lefties. Doesn’t he have to put up like a 150 wRC+ against righties just to be average? That seems a lot to ask out of him

9:14	Paul Swydan: It does indeed seem like a lot to ask of him, Name.

9:15	Irving Falu (not that one): Who is your favorite post-hype sleeper for 2017?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Come on man, I’m just starting to enjoy this 2016 season.

9:15	Michael: re: salazar, pomeranz, and encarnacion trade: i’m trading only salazar and getting back both pomeranz and edwin. would that change things?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Oh, sorry. That definitely changes things. I’d lean more toward doing it.

9:16

Jim Lonborg: I am a mad billionaire, and my dream is to own a team that breaks the Spiders’ loss record (the Mets’ one is too easy). I want you as my GM, Paul. We have to abide by MLB rules, which means players and coaches can’t be in on it and it can’t be too obvious. What team should I buy, and what’s our first move?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Buy the Padres and trade Wil Myers for more pitching prospects who won’t play until 2019?

9:18	Grandpaboy: OK, here’ s inevitable Cubs/NYY question–Miller for Vogelbach & Soler. Who hangs up and why?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Gee, I wonder if you’re a Cubs fan. The Yankees hang up before you finish saying Vogelbach.

9:18	Pat: Vinny V on an innings limit this year?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I would assume so, yes. But I don’t know for sure.

9:19	KiaTigers: KBO obviously not great, but any substance to the idea of Eric Thames returning to MLB after tearing up Korea?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Sure, I think there could be something to that. What’s the downside for a MLB team to sign him?

9:19	Pat: What % you give Chase Utley making the HOF?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 30%. On the one hand, his WAR puts him in deserving range.

9:21	Paul Swydan: On the other hand, he didn’t win an MVP, and Cole Hamels overshadowed him in 08.

9:22	Paul Swydan: Also, Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich didn’t get in, and they are still above him on the WAR leaderboard.

9:22	Paul Swydan: On the OTHER OTHER hand, voters are less likely to “miss” on a player like Utley than they probably used to be.

9:22	Jim Lonborg: Seems like there’s been a run of Papi’s feet stories–based on anything particular, or just watching him run (Ortiz runs like my father)?

9:23	Paul Swydan: Ortiz has continuously listed his feet as the reason he’s retiring.

9:23	Matt: If Drew effing Pomeranz is worth a top-20 prospect, what is Teheran worth? He has a much better track record, better contract, and is an all around better pitcher…

9:24	Paul Swydan: As I noted last week, Teheran has a 2.75 career ERA vs. the Phillies and Marlins, and a 3.75 ERA vs. everyone else. I don’t know that he’s a superior pitcher at all.

9:24	Paul Swydan: As for his contract, it’s only better if you think he’ll be better 3 years from now. Pomeranz isn’t even making $2 million this year, so the only advantage Teheran’s contract has is that it lasts longer.

9:25	Paul Swydan: And for a team in it to win it this year, I doubt they’ll factor that as heavily as the Braves will.

9:25	Paul Swydan: In summation, I think Teheran will fetch two top 75 prospects and a third guy similar to the Kimbrel trade, but I don’t think he’ll land Atlanta a top 20 guy like Pomeranz did unless it’s a similarly far away A ball player.

9:26	Matt: Teheran’s 3.75 ERA against everyone else sure seems better than Pomeranz’s 3.93 ERA against everyone else.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Yes, because we always take pitcher’s ERA at Coors Field at face value, right?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Pomeranz has a 2.84 ERA since the start of 2014, and that is good for 8th best in baseball.

9:27	Paul Swydan: Teheran’s ERA in that span is 3.29, 30th best.

9:27	Paul Swydan: This narrative that Teheran is leagues better than Pomeranz is one of fiction. Sorry.

9:28	BritishCub: wasn’t kluber cramping?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I never understand major league players cramping. The Gatorade cooler is right there in the dugout. I know baseball players are generally not the sharpest knives in the drawer, but staying hydrated is a pretty basic rule to follow.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Having said that, if he was cramping, he was cramping.

9:29	Mike: tanaka and miller for profar and gallo

9:30	Paul Swydan: That’s an interesting proposal, though I don’t understand why the Yankees would want to get rid of Tanaka. If they sell off, it’s more of a reload than a rebuild.

9:30	Jon Gray: League has 2 year contracts with option to extend for 4 more years at 5$ more original price. Jon Gray 12$, Kepler 14$ and Aaron Sanchez 19$

9:30	Paul Swydan: Definitely want Gray.

9:31

Paul Swydan: Of Kepler and Sanchez, I’d feel safer with Sanchez. The Twins just have no clue what they’re doing, and the fact that they didn’t immediately clean house paired with the owner saying Paul Molitor will *definitely* be the manager next year doesn’t exactly have me brimming with confidence about their future.

9:32	Kevin: Over/Under on Andrew Benintendi making his MLB debut: 9/1/16.

9:33

Paul Swydan: I think it depends on how many roster loopholes the team can create for the playoff roster. If they can wait until the end of the minor league season before calling him up and still get him on the postseason roster should they want to, I’d think they’d do that. If they won’t have the loophole available, then before 9/1.

9:33	Pat: Clearly on everyone’s mind, what is Peter Bourjos’ trade value?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Haha. Well his red hot month has only risen his wRC+ to 87, so probably still not much.

9:35	Random ESPN Broadcaster: Joe Maddon is probably the greatest manager of all time. He might be the smartest person ever to be on a baseball team. He even moves guys around the field! I never would have thought of that. Wow! What a cool cat!

9:35	Paul Swydan: I laughed.

9:35	Stevo: Have you guys played Pokemon Go yet?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Can’t say that I have the time for that, no.

9:35	Monsignor Martinez: I’ve pondered the idea of a Pederson + Seager for Trout + Simmons trade. Any thoughts on this?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Uh, no, that’s not anywhere near enough for Mike Trout.

9:36	Von Schloss: Who is the best prospect you could see getting moved by the July 31 deadline? Someone like Meadows from Pit for pitching?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Only top 25 guys I can fathom are really Robles, Rosario, Bellinger and De Leon, going by BA’s midseason list.

9:37	Paul Swydan: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#ZLumtFTywvGxrR1g.97

9:38	Minty: If I recall, one of you is lukewarm on Schwarber. If he was on the Yankees, would that change?

9:38	Paul Swydan: I’m definitely the low man on Schwarber. But yes, I’d be more bullish on him in the AL, and definitely if he was on the Yankees.

9:39	Murdoc: Is Charlie Blackmon one of those guys that’s more valuable in fantasy than in real life?

9:39	Paul Swydan: No, I think he’s pretty close to a balanced value.

9:39	Irving Falu (not that one): Jaws 2 or Ghostbusters II?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I’ll be honest with you – I never even saw Jaws 2, so I’d have to say Ghostbuster II by default.

9:39	Ugh: Taillon wacked in the head by a screamer. As a rum bunter I feel like this team is cursed, and JT in particular is doomed to never realize his immense potential. Please help me off the ledge.

9:40	Paul Swydan: At least you’re only two months away from watching a known rapist play quarterback for your team?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Sorry, that was mean.

9:41	Paul Swydan: The Pirates have a bevy of talented young players on their team, and have made shrewd contract decisions that leave them with the sort of wiggle room that small market teams generally don’t have. Everything’s going to be alright.

9:41	Levin: Trout is the best player in the league but your evaluation of his value is wayyyy off. You seem to not have any clue on the money factor.

9:42	Paul Swydan: What I know about the money factor is that Mike Trout signed a contract that is significantly under market, and any team would jump at the chance to have him at that contract. There’s a reason he is #1 – AGAIN – on the Trade Value Series.

9:42	Pat: Is Josh Bell so bad at defense he must be moved to AL team to DH?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I haven’t had the chance to watch him, so I’m not ready to go there yet.

9:42	Pat: Phillie Phanatic chased a mascot Pikachu across field with Ipad and hit his nuts on dugout fence FYI

9:42	Paul Swydan: Now THAT’S entertainment!

9:43	Levin: If you’re starting a franchise with a small budget, who’s the first player you would want to start it with (money factor considered in decision)?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Still Trout. But assuming I couldn’t get him, someone like Lindor or Correa. Always start building a team up the middle, and at shortstop preferably.

9:43	Josh: Bryce Harper batted .330 last year on his way to the NL MVP. He’s currently at about .250. This has to get better, right?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Well, we don’t live in a just world, so it doesn’t HAVE to, but it should, yes.

9:44

Levin: Correa, a recently called up top 10 prospect, two more decent prospects and two low prospects is a trade I’d make for Trout. Correa, due to control years left, has tremendous value and is a legit cornerstone player. Angels need more than just Trout and this deal gets them a cornerst one, likely good 1b/DH in his rookie season and 4 more prospects.

9:45

Paul Swydan: Again though, you didn’t bother defining the other prospects. You can’t just waive a magic wand and say 4 prospects. As Dave illustrated in his piece today – and should be clear from any semi-coherent evaluation of prospects – they’re not all created equal, and any trade of Trout will have to factor that in. He’s a once in a lifetime player. Correa is not yet that player.

9:45	Matt: Even though I think you’re dead wrong on this, I want to say thank you for taking my question and the ensuing dialogue!

9:46	Paul Swydan: Absolutely. That’s what makes this fun!

9:46	Cam: Over/under 30% – Dodgers trade Puig before the deadline?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think it’s more 50/50 at this point, so over. Teams competing for a playoff spot don’t generally leak to the media that they’re willing to trade one of their starters, and Friedman orgs in the past have been typically tight lipped. As always, Puig is defying industry standards.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Or norms. Industry norms.

9:47	Tom: How about Happ, Candelario and Vogelbach for Miller

9:48	Paul Swydan: Here’s the thing with Miller – he’s signed through 2018. So even if the Yankees are punting on 2016, there’s no reason for them to punt on 2017 and 2018. So they’d need to be getting a slam dunk prospect in return for Miller. This proposal is more the pu pu platter.

9:48	Pat: Is Vlad Guerrero a HOF’er? Bobby Abreu? You seemed eager to discuss Utley’s chances. I know I would really enjoy an article discussing the case for/against some of the upcoming borderline guys…

9:49	Paul Swydan: I wrote about Vlady’s chances over the winter.

9:49	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-vladimir-guerrero-a-hall-of-famer/

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’d put his odds as slightly lower than Utley, just because he doesn’t stand out in the pack as much at his position.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I can’t imagine Abreu sniffing the Hall, deserving or not.

9:50	Von Schloss: Do you see Longoria getting dealt?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I mean, I can understand why the Rays would sell now, but he’s their franchise guy. If you trade him, why would any fan have any reason to go to a Rays game? I don’t see it.

9:51

Josh: Would you try to sell Carlos Gonzalez or stand pat? His BABIP is about 40 points higher than career, and obviously a trade out of Coors is bad. However, he’s got .275/40 ability (as shown last year), and he’s been so consistent. FWIW I’m doing well in standings. If you wanted to dilute, who are some bats I could realistically target?

9:52	Paul Swydan: In fantasy, I hang on to him until I see where he’s headed in real life. I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that the Rockies trade him.

9:52	Levin: If Puig is traded, what’s a realistic package? Top 50 plus couple guys who have ceiling to be average-below average starters?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think at this point given his underperformance and general reputation (deserved or not) that it’s probably closer to top 100-125 prospect plus a couple of guys in the vein of what you said.

9:54	Murdoc: Did Jeff finally revolt because you won’t let him pick questions?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Haha, no, Jeff is on vacation in the mountains this week. I don’t think he even brought his laptop with him. Nor should he have.

9:54	Travis: What’s your best guess on how Miguel Sano’s bat develops? He’s been good this year, but hasn’t really locked in.

9:55	Paul Swydan: Honestly, the Twins have managed him doesn’t give me much confidence in him until/unless they clean house.

9:55	Paul Swydan: the way the Twins have managed him, is what I meant to say

9:56	Levin: Re-Vlad HOF, according to Baseball Reference he’s above average HOFer in 3 of 4. No question for you but thought it’s worth noting.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah, he’s above average, but he’s also in a pack with a bunch of other above average guys who are also up for induction. And Edmonds, who had a similar career value, fell off the ballot in his first year. Such are the decisions the BBWAA back log has created.

9:57	Minty: Puig for Archer?

9:57	Paul Swydan: No I can’t see that happening.

9:57	Jim Lonborg: Argh Uehara injured. There will be no relievers left by the end of the season.

9:58

Paul Swydan: No one should be surprised by Koji getting hurt. He’s been bad all season and in his 40s. He’s been the worst reliever on the team as well, though he had been slightly better since being moved back to the closer role. In any event, they can call Joe Kelly back up, and Tazawa is back on Friday. Not too concerned.

9:59	Levin: Aldo, has anyone with high end trade value seen their value fall further this season than Puig without injury being main reason?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Jose Abreu is definitely in that discussion. Can I still count Allen Craig? No, he probably never had high end trade value. 🙂

9:59	Levin: If that is all it takes for Puig, why wouldn’t a team roll the dice? Still got his prime years to come and ceiling is superstar. Don’t personally like him though.