How It Could All Go Wrong for the Cubs
The 2016 season hasn’t started yet, but we already know one thing; everyone loves the Cubs this year. Whether you go by projection systems, gambling odds, expert predictions, or general pre-season hype, it’s pretty clear that the Chicago Cubs are the team to beat in 2016. Our forecasts expect them to win nearly 60% of their games and our playoff odds give them a 94% chance of reaching the postseason. Expectations couldn’t really be much higher.
But if there’s one thing baseball is particularly good at, it’s reminding us all how uncertain we should be about predicting a specific future for one player or even one team. In the aggregate, we can do a decent job of forecasting large groups, but for individuals or single teams, the range of possible outcomes is still really large. Last year, for instance, the Nationals had almost exactly the same projections as the Cubs do now, with a .585 projected winning percentage and a 94% chance of reaching the postseason. But instead, they won 83 games and watched the playoffs at home.
So, before the Cubs start playing games that count and things start threatening to go wrong, let’s take a look at what could cause the Cubs to follow in the Nationals path.
Before last season, Jake Arrieta had never thrown more than 175 innings in a season, but including the postseason, he threw 249 innings a year ago. And while he looked remarkably dominant at the start of the playoffs, by the end, it seemed like it might be catching up to him. Here is his fastball velocity chart, by game, from last year.
The Cubs have taken it easy with Arrieta this spring, as he’s only thrown 11 innings in spring training — for comparison, Kyle Hendricks is at 25 — and are likely to manage his workload more carefully this season if they have the opportunity to do so. The link between innings pitched and arm injuries is still not all that well understood, but the Cubs are probably wise to be aware of Arrieta’s workload, as his dominance is a large part of why they’re projected to be so good.
If Arrieta’s arm gives out, the Cubs aren’t exactly screwed, but he looks like a five win pitcher, and while Adam Warren is a nice depth option to have around, that’s still a big drop-off. Not to mention that taking Warren out of the bullpen to replace Arrieta would weaken the team’s relief corps, and in a rotation where the back-end guys have historically not worked deep into games, losing Arrieta could tax the bullpen in a significant way.
The Cubs could survive losing Arrieta, but if things go off the rails in Chicago, it seems pretty likely that he’ll either have gotten hurt or pitched significantly worse than he did a year ago.
The Cubs paid a significant price to add not only Jason Heyward’s bat to their line-up, but also his glove to their outfield, as he’s been one of baseball’s premier defenders for the last five years. The Cubs are looking at Heyward as a good hitter who turns himself into a star by virtue of excelling at the other parts of baseball, but if the defense regresses, he’s more of just a nice player than any kind of franchise cornerstone.
And it’s not totally unheard of for defensive value to erode quickly. Jacoby Ellsbury was an elite center fielder in Boston, but has been graded out as average-ish since joining the Yankees. Going a little further back, Carl Crawford put up a +52 UZR in his final three seasons with the Rays before putting up a -4 UZR in his first season in Boston. Gerardo Parra was graded out as one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball from 2010-2013, then rated as average in 2014 and awful in 2015.
More likely, Heyward is young enough to avoid those sudden collapses in defensive value, but he’s a big guy with a history of injury problems, and if he tweaks his knee or strains a hamstring, he could lose a big part of his game in a hurry. With below average defenders in the other two outfield spots, the Cubs are counting on Heyward to help run down some of the balls in the gaps, but if that doesn’t show up in Wrigley, the pitching staff might get frustrated whenever a ball gets hit in the air. You can win with lousy outfield defense, but it’s certainly more difficult than if you have a guy out there running stuff down and helping his pitchers out. If the Cubs season collapses, don’t be surprised if we’re left trying to figure out why Heyward stopped being an elite defender upon his arrival to the north side of Chicago.
Kris Bryant was an absolute monster as a rookie, putting up a 136 wRC+ while playing surprisingly good defense at third base, and even ranking as one of the game’s best baserunners as well. He lived up to the hype and then some, and he got better as the year went on, finishing with a 186 wRC+ in September. After just one season, Bryant looks like one of the best players in the game.
But his overall excellence overshadowed the fact that Bryant does have a flaw; he swings and misses a ton. He only made contact on 66% of his swings last year, the lowest rate of any player in baseball. A 66% contact rate is at the bottom edge of what big league hitters have ever done, and the guys who have lived in that range — Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, and Josh Hamilton being the most successful names in that group — have had some ups and downs as their power bounced around. To succeed while whiffing on every third swing, you have to maximize your productivity on contact, and that isn’t always easy.
The other guy who ran a 66% contact rate last year? Joc Pederson, who bombed his way into the All-Star Game with a 137 wRC+ in the first half of last year, but put up a 79 wRC+ as his power abandoned him in the second half. Bryant should have a higher floor than Pederson because he hits more line drives and fewer fly balls, but there’s a pretty significant risk with guys who swing and miss this often. And a lot of Bryant’s offensive value was because he ran a .378 BABIP last year, which won’t last.
While we shouldn’t expect a total collapse, Chris Davis’ 2014 season is a reminder that Bryant could end up taking a big step back this year if the power regresses and the BABIP collapses. More likely, he’ll still be an excellent player even with some BABIP regression, but the low contact rate at least seems to open the door to pitchers figuring him out in a way that leads to a prolonged slump. And if Bryant isn’t an offensive force in the middle of their line-up, that offense suddenly looks a lot less scary.
The Cubs are deep enough to overcome any one of these issues, and probably even two of them. But if Arrieta goes down, Bryant’s contact problems are more significant than is currently being talked about, and Heyward’s defense goes the wrong way, the behemoth of the NL Central could find themselves looking up at St. Louis and Pittsburgh.
Of course, we could do this same exercise with any team in baseball, and it’s even easier for the other 29 clubs. The Cubs have more depth than almost everyone, and they have so many terrific players that they could lose one or two and still be a contender. But as we head into the season of the Cubs, it’s worth a reminder that they aren’t invincible. They look like the best team in baseball heading into the season, and I think everyone is correct in identifying them as the team to beat. But often, baseball delights in humbling the favorites. The Cubs deserve to be favorites, but there are plenty of ways for this to all go wrong.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Heyward arrived on the south side of Chicago? Come on Dave, clean it up
Reason #4: Zobrist’s major defensive step backward last year turns out to be not an anomaly but an intermediate step towards defensive poorness (so to speak).
Most likely problem is in order to conserve starter innings, Cubs expose bullpen which implodes.
Reason #5 Lackey, Hammel, and Lester are all on the downward slope of the age curve as well. Any one of these guys (or all of these guys) could lose velocity/fall off a cliff/etc.
I think if the Cubs fail to meet expectations this year, it will largely be due to their pitching staff (injury, age related decline, etc.)
Hammel has a short leash with warrens presence.
Even Arrieta is on the wrong side of 30. The Cubs’ options if any of those guys go down appears to be going with the swingman committee of Warren, Richard and Cahill.
Reason #6: Expectations are sky high in Chicago. How does that pressure impact the team? How would the media, fans, team react to any sort of slump or a bad start?
Agree wholeheartedly about Bryant. That’d be my biggest non-injury concern on the Cubs hands down.
There is one thing that makes most of this moot, the cubs prospect depth. They can deal from that at any time to fill holes or use someone like almora, Contreras, candelaro to fill them internally. All this guys are basically big league ready the first and last are plus defenders with high floors.
while it is valid to point out that the cubs have high ceiling prospects waiting in the wings, it should be noted that none of those prospects have played an inning in triple A. so i disagree that this makes the points in the post moot because given that they are still at least a year away, or best case scenario maybe like half a year away, they provide insurance from ’17 and on, but ’16 success is in fact riding on decent performances from all of last year’s rookies, which are the biggest question marks. sure heyward, lester, or even arrieta can break down, but even arrieta has a track record of two excellent ML seasons which downplay performance concerns lest there be a serious injury.
The idea of triple a seasoning is kind of overrated. I wanna say it was luhnow last year who said once a guy proves himself in AA they can be called up to the majors. Also almora and candy are plus defenders with almora being plus plus, so even if the bat lags a little like Russell he is at least a solid average regular. The rookies proved themselves every step of the way in the minors, its not like they came out of nowhere. Btw Russell is actually a breakout candidate as he is focusing on getting more power and steals. 20/20 with plus defense is a solid possibility which is like a 5 win player.
I would avoid trying to convert HR/SB totals into WAR. A 20/20 player can be worth +3 runs on offense if they hit .230 with a .330 OBP, or +30 runs if they hit .270/.350. Since Russell is projected to barely crack a .300 OBP, it’s going to take more than a few extra homers and steals to make him a 5-win player.
He isn’t hitting 9th this year, there will be a significant improvement in his walk rate(see Ruben tejadas bb rate) obviously I’m implying he is more the second half hitter he was last year(.259 hitter but with more pop and more steals)
they are useful as trade chips but not as major league starters in 2016
Almora doesn’t strike out and plays plus plus d. He can start on 20 teams by June.
Almora is a nice prospect, but there is NO way there are 20 teams he can start on by June where he is a better option than the teams’ current situation. Angels, Royals, Twins, Yanks, Red Sox, Rays, Jays, Orioles, Phils(!), Marlins, Mets, Bucs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks…all have better options. That doesn’t even count the Braves who would likely only make a move like that if they got rid of Inciarte.
Like I said, Almora is a nice prospect, but let’s not pretend he’s like Buxton 2.0 here. He’s mainly defense who doesn’t have power or walks a whole lot. I’m guessing that won’t scare big league pitchers a whole lot.
Almora hit .302/.370/.448 in the second half last year with an 8.8% bb rate and 10.3% k rate. So while you May have the old scouting report he actually made significant improvements. He has added 15 pounds of muscle this off-season and looks even more impressive. Don’t be surprised when he is a mid season top 20 prospect. By the way Herrera had a good year but really isn’t as good a defender as the metrics show and got babip luck, he is more like a 2 win guy. By the way you listed 10 which leaves 20 team’s.
Try counting again; there are 14 teams I listed there who don’t even remotely need a center fielder. Last I checked, 14 is more than 10. If he’s improved his approach over the second half of last year, that’s a good sign, but he has to sustain that to prove it isn’t just noise. I know you’re thinking about the best-case scenario for every Cubs prospect out there but…it doesn’t usually work that way.
I took it as 10 because cespedes is really a cf, Pollack is hurt so they do need a c.f, Herrera isn’t as good as u make it seem, ozuna is certainly a question mark, is Pederson really a lock?, and ellsbury is evaporating everyday… Walk rates stabalize very quickly, it also coincided with the time out he took to play for team u.s.a. as a 21 year old it certainly looks like a significant change.
I find it funny how young guys like Ozuna, Pederson, and Herrera who have experienced varying degrees of success in the bigs are less of a sure thing than a decent-ish prospect who hasn’t made it above AA. A prospect who has only 1/2 season of productive offensive play.
What you think about Cespedes value in CF doesn’t really matter; the Mets aren’t likely to move him out of CF for someone like Almora. While I agree Ellsbury isn’t that hot, there’s a reason the Yankees got Aaron Hicks. He’s a slightly different version of Almora. The Phils…Herrera may not be that hot, but what pitching do they have to trade? They’ve already shipped out Hamels and any other big league pitcher who had value. I’ll give you the Diamondbacks and Pollock, but again, a guy like Almora, with such a short track record of success with the bat in the minors doesn’t sound like a recipe for instant big-league success.
He’s a good prospect, but he needs to show that the 1/2 season wasn’t just noise. And frankly, if he ends up being as good as you think he is, I think he’s worth more to the Cubs when Fowler is gone.
Injuries can take down any team. It’ll be the biggest factor in whether the Cubs meet expectations or not.
I’m concerned about Kyle Schwarber’s contact rate hurting him, too. He’s at about 67%. As we know, he doesn’t add any defensive or baserunning value like Bryant to give him a floor like Bryant’s.
But Schwarber’s projected to produce less than 3 wins, so it’s not as big of a fall a someone like Bryant, who’s projected for 5.5-6 wins.
Fair point as to why he’s not in the main article. Soler can probably also step in for him pretty readily if he takes a header. Though, Soler was at about 67% last year himself. You’d think at least one of those two can do a little better this year, though.
Schwarber graded out as an excellent base runner in his time at the MLB level last year. One of the best going first to third.
http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/02/12/kyle-schwarber-baserunner-extraordinaire/
I don’t believe for a second he’s an excellent base runner going forward. He may have been good in a small sample. That data mentions there were 9 instances in which a single was hit and he reached third 3 times. Far too little to say he’s an unexpectedly excellent baserunner.
I say that being completely open to changing my belief if he does that over a full season.
The size of that sample means that two plays were the difference between excellent and excrement.
I think it’s fair to assume the scouting reports, and lack of defensive value are a better indicator of his bsr than a handful of first to third situations.
Itso an interesting experiment here with the cubs having 4 big time prospects living at the very cusp of what we’ve always considered to be line at which you can’t be a great hittwr.
I’d like to see if these low contact rate guys are more prone to disaster seasons as making contact gives you a better chance to have some good luck.
At these contact rates you so many less chances for good fortune which might lead to the occasional terrible year where you just hey terribly unlucky on bip.
He is not fast but not a base clogged are the scouting reports. He’s a smart player with a good work ethic, I don’t have a hard time seeing him as a plus baserunner with his speed mAking it play down to average. There are guys a lot faster who just have no idea what they doing out there. Think of Rizzo baserunning imo.
Schwarber didn’t have nearly the impact in his second go around in the league too. His OPS by month tells a tale of the league catching up to him. He was also very weak against lefties.
1.308 postseason ops. Guess third time around was the charm…
Hilarious, that was my thought as well. Didn’t see you had already posted something.
I’m curious what you see as significant about month to month fluctuations? If we are looking at a SSS chronological trend, the data suggests that he figured out the league, not the other way around, given what happened in October.
I agree there are questions about future production, but the way Schwarber closed out 2015 was about as far as it gets from the league catching up to him.
Reasons #7 & 8: Billy goats and Bartman
Haha! How amazing it would be for a goat related collapse.
When we move into the animal world, I am going to wait and see what Elway has to say about this, whether “yea” or “neeeeiiiigggghhhh”.
What’s impressive about the Cubs imo is that for all the talk of their kids they don’t need to depend on any of them to be a good team.
Which is good, because I’m guessing the kids underwhelm this year.
But with Heyward/Zobrist/Rizzo/Fowler/Montero leading the lineup and Arrieta/Lester/Lackey/Rondon leading the pitching, who needs kids anyways?
It’s a balance of youth, wisdom and prime. Rizzo, arrietta, Hayward in their primes. Solid vets with high floors, then the youngin’s with crazy upside.
The Cubs could have a great season and still finish 2nd. Here’s why. Who had a higher OPS in almost identical ABs in 2015? Swarber or Piscotty, Soler or Grichuk, Bryant or Carpenter? In all cases it is the Red Bird players. And Pham also posted an impressive .824. Heyward’s .797 was lower than any of the Cards’ four outfields. So if 2015 numbers are repeated the Cards’ outfield looks to be the better, if only by a little.
So let’s look at the infield. No doubt Rizzo is vastly superior than anything the Cards can produce. But the advantage stops there. Second is a wash, Wong is a better defender, Zobrist a better hitter, but cumulatively they come out even. At shortstop the Cubs have an edge, but when Peralta returns in late May or early June, the edge is diminished. I think Russell will hit better than in 2015, and he is clearly a better defender, but Peralta’s offense offsets the defensive range that Russell employs. Then their is third, where Carpenter posted an .871 to .852 OPS edge. I say that is a wash, and defensively they are on par. Behind the plate of course the Red Birds hold a significant edge, with Molina over Montero, who cannot throw. Edge to the Cubs mostly due to the Rizzo advantage, but in the other four spots there is no discernible edge.
Now the Pitching staffs, where the Cards are significantly better. In 2015 the starting staff posted the lowest ERA since the 1980’s, and it is better in 2016. Wainwright>Lackey, and Leake>the injured Lynn, with the budding youngsters stars Wacha and Martinez ready to surpass their 2015 numbers. Many doubt that Garcia can pitch an entire season without being shelved, but even if that does happen they have, Lyons, Cooney, and Gonzales at the ready, with Reyes lurking after his 50 game suspension. The Cubs have Arrieta, who will have trouble repeating his second half, but should still have a dominant season. Lester will most likely pitch well, while teams run wild on him. Lackey can be counted on to be strong, but most likely will revert to past numbers, especially since he won’t be pitching in pitcher-friendly Busch. But the back half of the Cubs rotation is no comparison. I doubt if Hammels holds down the 4th spot all season, but if he does, he is weak. Hendricks is steady, but just an average 5th guy.
Then the bullpen. Here the Cards again hold the edge. Maddon has been able to work magic with so-so guys there and maybe he can piece together a respectable pen, but St. Louis has a clear edge in talent. I would give the edge to the Cubs bench, but the Cards is vastly improved so the edge isn’t as great as in 2015.
As it stands right now, on closer inspection the difference between the teams is slight. Yes, the Cubs are better suited to make a significant trade to embolden whatever becomes a weakness, and they probably will. But as it stands right now, be careful to embrace a Cubs dominance, it isn’t as great as has been promulgated.
BABIP Bros Piscotty and Grichuk will not OPS higher than Heyward.
It’s one thing for people to say Bryant, who carried .400+ BABIP’s throughout the minors, will see a significant regression in his batted ball outcomes. We probably will see some regression. But Grichuk’s .365 BABIP (hovering around .300 minor league BABIP) and Piscotty .372 BABIP (hovering slightly above .300 minor league BABIP) are going to regress more heavily. Both of them posted major league ISO’s significantly above their minor league averages in 2015, as well.
Please take off your cardinal red-tinted glasses.
The primary contributor to Grichuk’s high BABIP is his exit velocity. Piscotty’s is his ability to hit the ball well to all fields and his stats on the depth of his batted balls is exceptional. Both Grichuk and Piscotty were 1st round picks, the Cards saw plenty of potential, with a little development, and they had players blocking them, so they could take their time to develop. Plus, I doubt if Heyward suddenly takes off in the OPS department, he is what he is, too many moving parts in his swing to ever become an elite hitter. The Cards know how to draft and develop, and both Grichuk and Piscotty are poised to match or better their 2015 numbers. My glasses may be Red-tinted, but they also see 20/10.
So why was grichuks exit velocity so low in the minors? Cubs guys are better with higher floors cuz they take walks! The cards have to run high babips or they stuck with obps of .300… Grichuk came from the angels and hasn’t changed his approach so that’s not the cards development although I do agree they do that better than almost anyone(giants are the best)
Yes, Grichuk came from the Angels, but his development was done by the Cards. I’m having serious doubts that there were exit velocities, in the minors, when he played, being a very new measurement, and even if there were, I have doubts about the accuracy. I also have serious doubts about your ability to judge Grichuk’s approach in the minors for the Angels, his time in the minors with the Cards, and his current approach. Maybe you have been following him with extreme precision, logging the many miles required to follow a minor leaguer, and then comparing that to his present approach, or maybe you don’t really know what his progression has been like.
As to the Cubs young outfielders and their alleged patience, here are the facts. Soler in 366 ABs walked 15 times, and posted a .327 OBP. Grichuk in 323 ABs walked 22 times and posted a .329 OBP. Swarber walked 36 times in 232 ABs, and posted a .355 OBP, Piscotty walked 20 times and posted a .359 OBP. These things can be looked up, without a great deal of effort, and it avoid the embarrassing moments you are feeling as you read this.
I was implying his exit velocity didn’t help him in the minors against weaker pitching, its hard to imagine all of a sudden it spiked and we should expect the babip to carry. And what a half season of development from the cards… He was what he is already loom at his year in the minors pre cards and post it’s identical,
You keep picking soler first when he is basically the short side of a platoon. Why look at bop when that includes babip fueled averages when you can just look at walk rate.
Piscotty 7.8%, Grichuk 6.3% both below average. Schwarber 13.2% which is elite, soler was at 7.9% and he was the worst of the rookies which is why he is only looking at 250 pas this year.
Grichuk has a 30% K rate and pops out 10% more. When you make 40% of your PA’s as completely worthless, it’s really hard to bat even .250.
Grichuk popped out in approximately 2.5% of his PA’s in 2015. 10% is as a share of his FB’s.
My glasses are flaming red, and they light up as I see Grichuk consistently mash the ball, but even through the the red tinted haze I can’t miss his contact problems. If we are talking about contact problems and potential for regression here then he has to be a scarier candidate than Bryant and Schwarber, who, unlike Grichuk, have proven that they have the ability to walk consistently.
The Cardinals are still good and in no way am I counting them out but I think you might be too bullish on at least a few things.
– Stating Pham as a 824 OPS in 150 AB’s is a better than Heyward posting a 797 and elite defense and 6 WAR over the season isn’t exactly a fair comparison.
– The combo of Pham, Piscotty and Grichuk have put up less than 1000 AB’s in their career combined. I just don’t think we can say this is their talent level the sample size is just too small. I think Piscotty will be solid and Grichuk has power but he might struggle to put an OBP of 300.
– Zobrist is much better with the bat and admittedly was down with the glove last year but after he recovered form injury he seemed to be back to his usual self which is plus. (We will have to wait and see on that)
-The starting rotation is where I think you are the most off, the Cardinals in 2015 did put-up incredible numbers but they also had one of the highest strand rates of all time to do so. You have to expect some regression there.
-On the surface 2016 Wainwright > 2015 Lackey seems obvious but Lackey put up 218 innings at a 2.77 ERA last year, I think most Cardinals fans would be thrilled with that season from Wainwright.
-Leake > Lynn I don’t think is even clear on the surface. Lynn threw 175 innings at a 3.03 ERA last year, Leake has never been close to those numbers.
-Wacha threw 181 innings at a 3.3 ERA which maybe you get an improvement from but thats pretty damn good. And Martinez has thrown 180 innings at a 3.0 last year which is going to be difficult to improve on.
The Cardinals should still have a good rotation for sure but to think they should outperform last year seems like a big stretch. I don’t think any Cub fan is ever counting out the Cardinals because they are always there, (I’m certainly not!) but I think some of that is on the optimistic side.
I didn’t compare Pham to Heyward, you are correct that his sample was too small, but his exit velocity, and minor league numbers are special.
The point was that Grichuk/Piscotty posted better numbers in the same number of ABs as Swarzer/Soler. Yes the MLB sample is small, but so are the Cubs outfielders.
Time will tell about Zobrist’s bat over Wong. As I said he Zobrist is the better hitter now, but I doubt if he suddenly out-performs his history. The Cards signed Wong to that 5 year deal, because they believe he is going to improve with the bat. Defensively, Zobrist has no where near the range of Wong.
I don’t expect the Cards’ rotation to regress. I am not going to go into a lengthy description of why, but it is a combination of pitch to contact strategy, and Molina guiding the rotation through difficult spots. My lengthy explanation can be found elsewhere.
No Cards’ fans wouldn’t be thrilled with Waino only pitching Lackey innings. Throughout his career he has eclipsed Lackey’s 2015 numbers, and he isn’t injury prone. He had two serious injuries. TJ, and the Achilles. Neither were career threatening, all signs suggest he is back to normal. The guys is a workhorse when healthy, and he is healthy.
What I said about Lynn/Leake, was that Leake was better than the 2015 version of an injured Lynn, which was part of their 2015 numbers. The second half of the season Lynn was pretty bad, and still the Cards posted those fabulous numbers. Leake’s numbers should improve considerably getting out of GAB bandbox, and hurling in the pitcher-friendly Busch.
I expect Wacha to be near, or slightly better than 2015, but I see no reason why Martinez would regress. He is just learning to pitch, as he converted from SS to the mound, has filthy stuff, and has Molina to instruct him. It would not surprise me to see his ERA go sub-2.50. I think he is a lot better than you give him credit for. Thanks for the reply.
Pham’s minor league numbers should be special when you are playing as a 26-27 year old against kids.
You keep comparing those guys to Soler when he’s their 4th outfielder and if you want to put stock into minor league numbers a than Schwarber and Soler seemed poised more to improve than Grichuk and Piscotty, Grichuk has barely posted a 300 OBP in the minors…
Wong is +2 runs and +4 runs the last two years which is definitely solid but I wouldn’t say those are numbers that Zobrist can’t and hasn’t reached.
I would love to read your explanation as to why the pitchers won’t regress, pitching to contact which actually leave them more open to the variation of BABIP where they were extremely lucky with runners on last year.
It’s possible Wainwright bests 220 innings and has an ERA sub 2.7 but even if he does it wouldn’t be by much and there’s just as good if not a better chance a 34 year old coming off injury might not reach those numbers.
Lynn may have been injured in 2015 but he still pitched 175 innnings at a 3.0 ERA, Mike Leake is a league average pitcher with a career 3.88 ERA and if you are expecting him to all of a sudden drop a run off of that you will be very disappointed. (Small sample but pitching for SF last year one of the biggest parks in the majors he had an ERA of 4.0)
Martinez does have filthy stuff and he’s also already had injury problems and throwing under a 3 ERA is a lot more difficult than you are giving credit for.
Also, Molina has been one of the best catchers in baseball over the past few years but age is catching up to him along with a bunch of those surgeries, I don’t know if I’d count on him calling 130 games for them this year or doing it at the level you’ve grown accustomed to.
Granted that Pham is a little old to be breaking in, but not by as much as you seem to think, the average age for a rookie is 23.5 years, so the difference isn’t as great as you hint.
Yes, Soler is the 4th outfielder now, but he wasn’t in 2015 and that is the year we are speaking of, the only one that compares, and the only one that has similar ABs, albeit he did have 43 more ABs. It was for comparison sake, and surely Heyward’s 5 plus years and many more ABs wouldn’t make sense as a comparison.
The last part of the second paragraph makes no sense at all to me. I went back and re-read my two comments, and nowhere can I find where I “put stock” in any minor league numbers, except to mention Phams, and that was due solely because I was agreeing that his MLB sample was so small. I know what Grichuk did in the minors, but that was pretty much the point, it wasn’t until he blossomed late, some guys do, that he was brought to the majors. And for the life of me I see no connection between what Schwarber and Soler did in the minors, compared to what they did last year. Isn’t it just as likely that they, like so many guys could tear up minor league pitching, but that it doesn’t translate as well to the bigs, than the Cards belief that the skills their two guys possess are more translatable at the Big League level, and that those traits, are the kind that show room for improvement?
Wong makes too many unforced errors, common for a young player. But his range makes Zobrist look like a statue. I am pretty sure that most would opine that correcting the easy play is much more likely, than Zobrist waking up one day and become Simmons.
Once again I am not going to go through the entire Cards’/Molina’s ability to strand runners, but if you truly would “love” to read it you can do it somewhere here. There was a post about stranded runner rates, perhaps even about the likelihood of the Cards repeating their 2015 numbers. It was sometime this past week, so it shouldn’t take that long to find, you being a supporting member and all. I have a number of issues with advanced metrics but two stand out. First defensive metric absolutely suck. The variation and fluctuation makes relying on them meaningless. Second, is the equation of “outliers” with randomness and luck. They are not the same thing. I don’t believe there is much “luck” in Baseball, particularly over a long season. Of course their is a lucky hit, play or bounce, but those balance out over a season. It would behoove all statistical-oriented sites to refrain from defending their models, and search for the underlying cause, rather than dismissing “outliers” as random. Blame yourself, not others, or even worse some unseen force.
As to Martinez, that is injury problem, not problems, and it was after being asked to pitch so many innings without any history of doing so. By all accounts he is fine, will be monitored, and hopefully be kept under 200 innings. When you have just completed your first full MLB season and you post a number at 3.00, and were pitching at only 23, I would like the chances that you would improve the following year, and improving moves him under three.
Again, I hope Molina doesn’t catch 130 games, 110 would be plenty, the reason for the acquisition of Pena. He too, is in great shape, unlike his two brothers who both caught into their forties. He is only 33, so it isn’t like he is ancient, and he showed zero signs of slowing down defensively. And he isn’t one of the best catchers in Baseball, he is the best defensive catcher I have ever seen, and that includes Bench and Rodriguez, and they don’t have his brain.
Waino pitched well, with now issues at the end of 2015, and has repeated that in Spring Training, so I doubt if there are any lingering issues, plus the fact it wasn’t arm related. He is in great shape, shows no signs of age, so his season is in all likelihood to resemble those of past years.
Lynn somehow managed the numbers you indicated, but he did it throwing nothing but fastballs after he was injured, and did not make it late in games, taxing the bull pen immensely. I don’t think Leake will shave a full run by moving outta Cincy, but with the smaller park, Molina handling him, I fully expect his ERA to hover around the 3.25 mark, and log 200 innings. And everyone knows that he was an injured pitcher toiling for the Giants.
If the average age is 23 and you are 27 that is a MASSIVE difference. 3-4 years in minor league time is the difference between Rookie/Low-A and Triple A/Majors. When you aren’t moving up levels quickly it’s easy for the guys to dominate a level.
Bringing up the minors matters because someone doing something for 5 years in the minor accounts for more than 300 PA in the majors. Also, Grichuk still struck out 5 times more often than he walked and he has an unsustainable BABIP. He has good power but he will be lucky to hit 240 and get on base 30% of the time.
You are basically saying two guys who have shown a history of taking walks at other levels have less of a chance at walking at the major league level than a guy who has never been shown to do so. Also, Grichuk is older than both of them.
Wong is 25 years old, he’s not THAT young. He should be in the prime of his defensive career right now (which is good but you shouldn’t be expecting some big leap forward)
If Molina and the Cardinals in general have a special ability to strand runners than this should be a thing they have been doing for years right? Let’s look at stats to see:
2015 – 1st in MLB
2014 – 9th in MLB
2013 – 11th in MLB
2012 – 12th in MLB
2011 – 17th in MLB
2010 – 7th in MLB
I guess we could call them slightly above average at it? Certainly not elite though, did they just crack the code?
Molina has been a great defensive catcher no question but 33 is a little old and since he came in so young it’s his 13th year, he’s coming off what, 3 thumb surgeries and his offense has already regressed. It’s not crazy to say he could be slipping from what he was.
Also, you can’t count on every pitcher to have a career year every single year and not every young pitchers ERA’s get better just because. I’ve already shown you the stranding runners thing has no basis whatsoever and that will cause everyones ERA to rise a little.
Pham wasn’t actually a late developer, but continually got hurt. Is it an issue yeah, but he was blocked, also.
The minors numbers CAN be indicative, but they can also be misleading. Plenty of guys didn’t graduate to the Bigs until they were 24-25 and excelled. Sometimes it takes guys longer to figure it out, and then it clicks and they take off. And sometimes guys put up terrific numbers throughout the minors but flop when they graduate to the majors. And remember I am not suggesting that Swarber, Soler, Bryant, Baez, and Russell aren’t talented, but maintain that the Cards’ match-ups are just as good. And I haven’t even gone into the defense are. Of course Heyward will bring them outstanding RF defense, but Fowler grades out slightly below average in center, and both Soler and Swarber are major liabilities defensively. That will matter. Grichuk just gets better and better as a centerfielder, and Piscotty is above average RF, regardless what his defensive metric show last year. (Another reason to not trust defensive metrics.) And both are excellent baserunners, as is Pham, Holliday is of course an older version of Swarber (who incidentally is just as bad behind the plate as in left.) But Holliday is going to get some playing time at first, mostly I assume against lefties, and then the Cards outfield defense is terrific.
IMHO, the Cards have a better rotation, better bullpen, a better catcher, and an equal outfield. The Cubs are better at first, equal at second, better at short, and perhaps slightly better at third, but that is only if Bryant can make more contact. It is hard for me to see how the Cubs can be prohibitive favorites with the above in mind. It should be a fun season, but the Cards have an awesome group, much like the Cubbies, but don’t get the recognition they deserve. When a team wins 100 games in an injury plagued season, and then improves their team, it would and should be a worry, and I am not hearing that.
jhalpin – In 2015, Pham was 0.2 years older than his average competition in AAA Memphis. That was the first year in his minor league career that he was league average aged or older, according to baseball-reference here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=pham–001tho
Please look at facts before posting.
I’m a little confused Ben Cerutti. I went to the Baseball Reference page and it shows 0.2 in 2015 AND 1.0 in 2013 at AA Springfield. Am I reading it wrong? What are the facts? He was 26 and 27 years old in AA and AA during those years and the best players, soon to be major leaguers were probably and mostly younger than him. Plus he needed to repeat many times.
And Spud, his minor league numbers are not special. He’s a career .258 hitter in the minors. Although he did get better with age.
So basically age, usage, and regression will have a huge toll on the Cubs, but not the Cardinals at all?
Have you all forgotten about the Pirates? Both they and the Cardinals finished ahead of the Cubs last year.
I think all the negative hits are goofy. And it’s entirely possible the Cardinals beat out the Cubs. But to hang your hat on no regression from the Cardinals is pretty ridiculous. You seem to have every reason to think the Cardinals will not regress. But have many reasons why the Cubs will regress. AND you think their pitching will only get better. They won’t have better pitching results because Wainright/Leake are better pitchers than Lynn/Lackey. They need to repeat those results. You probably know this. And if you Spud really think the Cardinals will beat out the Cubs hurray for you. But as it stands right now, be careful to embrace a Cardinals dominance, it isn’t as great as you have promulgated.
The whole point of my comment, wasn’t that the Cards are dominant vs. the Cubs, just that they are equal. It should be a battle, the Cubs are good, it is just the Cards are good too, and better than the 2015 team, as are the Cubs. The division might be decided on in season moves. The Cubs have position players to move, the Cards pitching. Time will tell.
Pirates might have something to say about it as well.
I get your point Spud. You don’t get mine/ours. It’s all ok though.
Tomorrow….BASEBALL
Good luck to you Spud.
The cards aren’t better though, they lost Heyward, lackey, Lynn. Yadi is older and had a significant injury, peralta is out to start. Wainright back replaces Lynn, but leake is a drop,gyorko isn’t good, Holliday shouldn’t play the of at all anymore. The cubs got better while cards and pirates didn’t. That’s the main point. The pirates can be better but that requires polonco to break out and Glasnow to come up and be above average right away.
Reason #9: There is, in fact, a god.
Reason #10: Bees.
Under the old system, I would’ve commented “Bees!?!” as GOB. It appears someone has already locked up that username, so now the best I can do is tell you that.
Dave and others have indirectly touched on this, but inopportunely timed bullpen struggles can sink anyone. The Cubs (or anyone’s) bullpen doesn’t even need to be performing poorly overall for this to happen either. They could be cruising along, putting up a perfectly good ERA around 3, but have the lion’s share of the runs allowed come in high leverage situations, and wham, the Cubs are all of a sudden 5-10 games behind their Pythagorean expectation, and struggling to stay afloat in a crowded NL postseason contender’s field.
Fig.1: Floating zero alert! This chart, to me, shows incredible consistency in his fastball velocity. That “big” drop over the last four games is only just over a 2 MPH drop. Maybe not nothing, but certainly not cause for alarm. And the Cubs had postseason games in Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and New York. Not exactly warm weather environments.
More importantly, he wasn’t very good in the playoffs.
To me, it shows a guy emptying out the tank.
I feel that the Cubs projections are way too aggressive. Last year, the Nats projections, while extremely aggressive, made some sense. They were the best team in the NL in 2014, lost nobody of note and added Scherzer. Their two chief rivals, the Mets and Fish, were expected to be .500-ish teams with Atlanta and Philly being the two worst teams in baseball. So when you’re the consensus best team in the league and your competition consists of two mediocre teams and two absolute doormats, it makes sense that the projections are going to love you. The only similarity between the Cubs and Nats is that both teams were already good but still added stars. That’s about it. The 2016 Cards and Pirates are much better teams on paper than the 2015 Mets and Marlins. And while the Reds and Brewers will suck, they aren’t going to be as bad as last year’s Braves and Phillies. As good as the Cubs are, giving them a 94% chance at the postseason is absurd. It’s absurd for any team.
There are five playoff spots, so I don’t really see it as too much of a stretch. I look at it as: in 19 of 20 hypothetical seasons, the Cubs project to be in the top third of the NL.
I think the 2015 Nats are the outlier and a cautionary tale – a worst case scenario of unlucky sequencing, team discord, poor management, and an unexpected surge from the competition.
More unlikely the Cubs to mimic the 2015 Nats’ failure than to make good on their projected success.
I also think that the Nats had zero depth. Once they got hit with the injuries, they couldn’t really replace them very well. The Cubs have a very solid bench and some young prospects who aren’t too far away to at least be passable if they get hit by the injury bug.
Their depth is amazing. Just about as good as any team in recent memory. But, I don’t think they truly addressed their playoff issues: being outpitched. To me, they should’ve used the Lackey and Zobrist $ on an Ace. They still would make the playoffs and then they’d have 3 studs and be able to match up, in a series. Or, what if they’d gone to TOR and offered Soler and Schwarber for Donaldson, with other pieces used to make it work. (Bryant to RF) To me, they are trying to build a window and not “go for it”. They might look back and regret being passive / keeping so many young pieces that are redundant and blocking the next wave of their system? HOU is going to win it all, when all is said and done. 😉
I certainly wouldn’t be mad about getting another front line pitcher but you don’t need 3 aces to win the World Series. Kansas City had one and even he wasn’t pitching like it. Arrieta is about as good as you could ask for at the top and Lester as a number two is fantastic. Add in a lot of depth and I don’t think they are in bad shape in the rotation. They can’t throw out 4 guys throwing 95 like the Mets but who can? And 0% chance the Blue jays do that, their window is smaller than the Cubs and they aren’t trading away a superstar. If the Cubs make a play for anything you would think it would be a top of the rotation arm.
I don’t see any way they look back at being too passive when they signed Heyward, Lackey and Zobrist after winning 97 games. I think they feel like the team is good enough to win now and also in the future.
Not sure I would categorize Lester as “fantastic.” Very good would be a more apt description. My guess is the Cubs decide to move some of their depth, for another starter, and soon. No they don’t need 5 studs to get through the post-season, but with the back end of their rotation, they will need to make a move or they may not get there, a win with Arrieta counts just as much as a loss with Hammel.
Lester had the 13th best WAR of starting pitchers in baseball last year, as a number 2 starter I think that qualifies as fantastic.
And you are implying its already past the trade deadline… Tyson Ross will be available, maybe sonny Gray, who knows what other teams falter. The cubs have the depth in their system to get any pitcher. You are picking on the number 4 starter that might not even pitch in a series if you have arrietta go on 3 days rest.
Hey Jedi, perhaps you could use a refresher course in reading comprehension. “My guess is the Cubs decide to move some of there depth for another starter, and soon.” And then and later, “they need to make a move.”
It was the fact you replied to a perfectly reasonable comment with condemnation. The cards are relying on depth, the pirates have 0 depth in the back end of their rotation, for number 4 and 5 starters the cubs are more of a sure thing the rest of the division so why nitpick when the other teams don’t dominate them there
It’s anecdotal to say the Royals did it, so that’s the blueprint. Because, if the Royals are the template, why are we on this site? This site keeps picking them to be bad. lol! Yes, Lester is an amazing #2. But, Lackey is NOT a playoff SP, imo. Look at his xFIP. (It’s as out there as KB’s BABIP) To depend on a 37 year old, after 7 months of baseball, seems foolish. Heyward is a very nice player. But, he’s made exactly 1 AS team. Zobrist is a nice player, but he’s past his prime and Castro / Baez are better defensively. Why not just brute force this thing with Price and Greinke? As to your false claim that there are no staffs like the Mets, I’d say WSH for sure and possibly SF and STL have better rotations, than the Cubs. CLE has 4 SP that can touch 95, once they put Bauer back in the rotation. (Not that FB velocity is the be all end all) To me, they didn’t improve their playoff team, by a significant margin and that should’ve been the goal, imo.
Quoting all star appearances as a reason Hayward isn’t good… Why are you on this site?
I’ve been pointing out the Bryant issue for a while. Glad it was mentioned in this article. I think Bryant turning into a Mark Reynolds with better defense should be the Cubs biggest concern, both for 2016 and long term. If Arrieta gets hurt or regresses, the rotation is also very shaky, as they don’t have another top-shelf arm (sorry guys, Lester is not as good as his FIP, thanks to his awful fielding/SB Prevention). Russell has many of the same issues that Bryant has, except with way less power and plate discipline.
Luckily for the Cubs, signing Heyward and Zobrist really sured up their near-term future. Combined with Schwarber and Rizzo, that gives them four really good all-around position players to build around. I think they’ll be good enough to win the division.
I’d be much more concerned about the long-term future, especially the rotation. In two years time Arrieta will be a free agent and Lester will be 34. The time for the Cubs to win a championship is within the next two years.
No pressure.
Lol, they have some pitching prospects and money to spend will increase every year. Cease looks like a future ace imo hitting 99 with ease. Soler and baez is a good start to getting back an ace thru trade as well.
Bryant could turn into Mark Reynolds but he could also turn into a perennial MVP candidate. He’s only had one year so far and it was pretty damn good. Saying Russell has many of the same issues is a little ridiculous too, he was the youngest player in baseball when he got called up last year and still played elite defense at two positions and showed improvement with the bat in the 2nd half, he was also a top 5 prospect in baseball.
The window is the next two years? When they will have Bryant, Russell, Hayward, Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez and Soler in their primes? They have a very deep farm system coming up as well. I think almost every team in baseball would take that talent pool to start with in a couple years.
Yeah, there’s no “window” for the Cubs. Or the Cardinals or Pirates, for that matter. They may in fact be three of the four best-positioned franchises for the foreseeable future (i.e., 5+ years).
The Cubs have baseball’s #1 young position player core, an excellent front office, massive annual revenues, and a top 5 manager.
St. Louis has baseball’s best draft & development organization, talented young MLB pitching and hitting, perhaps the finest GM, and another top 5 manager.
And the Pirates have baseball’s best pitching coach, yet another top 5 manager, and a front office that’s done a better job over the past few years than any other at identifying undervalued veteran assets like Russell Martin, Mark Melancon, Franciscos Cervelli and Liriano, Jung Ho Kang, J.A. Happ, etc., etc., while simultaneously excelling at player development.
The Brewers and Reds have their work cut out for them, no matter what the timetable.
Oh, and the other two top-5 managers are Bochy and Showalter.
I think you are doing Joe Girardi a disservice there.
I might be wronging Girardi, leaving him out of the very top managerial tier. I’d certainly have him at the next nearest level, along with Bob Melvin and Terry Francona, and just above Yost and Mattingly. (If Girardi’s 6th-best out of 30, that’s still damn fine, yes?)
Girardi is one of just two managers (Matheny) to receive M.O.Y. votes in each of the past four seasons, and there’s a LOT to be said for being above average year after year — but Joe hasn’t won more than 87 games since 2012, and over the last four seasons his squads have only beaten their Vegas number by an average of 1 win per year. That’s solid (better than Bruce Bochy, actually) but far from elite.
Of course, one could argue that there are uniquely weighty pressures attached to the pinstripes job, and I wouldn’t dispute it. Put it this way: If I saw a list that put Girardi in the top 3 or 4, I wouldn’t feel compelled to argue against it. (Unlike that bizzare Boston Globe list of a couple months back, wherein Terry “I finally finished over .500” Collins somehow ranked above both Bob Melvin and Mike Matheny. The Globe list was a mess.)
In 2015 Arrieta not only threw 72 more innings than he ever had before, his BABIP was .246 vs. a career average of .272, his LOB% was 80.0% vs. a career average of 71.2%, and his HR% was 7.8% vs. a career average of 10.1%, while his LD% was the same as it had ever been (21.0% vs 20.9%). It really isn’t clear why anyone thinks this is anywhere close to being sustainable. And Bryant’s BABIP was .378 which looks very very lucky considering his LD% was 20.5% and 13 infield flies.
Arrietas fip was higher in 2015 than 2014…is a 1.77 e.r.a sustainable? No, but ur ignoring the fact that he significantly increased his gb rate and now is firmly a low 2 fip guy that’s likely to maintain an e.r.a in the 2’s.
Okay, take the last two years. Arrieta’s BABIP in 2014-5 was .257, the 3rd lowest in the majors, and unlike the two guys head of him (Young and Estrada) he had no peripherals to support this–his LD% was average and the high GB% meant he had very few total infield flies. However you cut it, the evidence is he’s been pretty lucky and can be expected to regress 25-30 points in BABIP, which would make quite a dent in his ERA.
Yeah as JediHoyer says a 1.7 ERA isn’t sustainable for anyone you do need some luck to get that low but his FIP the last 2 years are 2.35 and 2.26, that is worse but still really damn good and I don’t think anyone would be upset if he settled in the low to mid 2 range.
Also, his soft hit percentage was 5th in MLB and had the 2nd lowest hard hit % in MLB so those certainly help with running a low BABIP.
2014 he gave up .274 babip and put up a 2.53 e.r.a. .274 is roughly his career average. Which is still an ace and plenty with an improved offense.
This is a silly exercise. There’s so many things that can go wrong for any team. It’s not like it’s August 15 and they have a 12 game lead, and we’re looking at the possible ways they could collapse. If several, multiple players underperform just slightly, it can cause the whole thing to underwhelm, and that’s true of every team in the league.
In addition to this:
Their bullpen could become a huge mess and blow 30 saves.
Their entire starting outfield can pull their hamstrings or blow out their knees
Three starting pitchers could pull their UCLs
Mark Prior could get a concussion sliding into second base
‘Silly’ exercise? Seriously?
Not near as silly as your comment.
Maybe it’s the headline’s phrasing that bugs me. The Cubs haven’t WON anything yet, not even a single game. They won the offseason and have projections. If they fail to make the playoffs, it will be disappointing, but it won’t be some epic foul-up. It will just be a case of the lower percentiles winning out.
There’s far more than three things that can go completely wrong for them. Maybe these are the three most likely, but injuries are an actually fairly common thing in the sport, so perhaps losing a star player to injury is more likely.
That Arrieta workload chart – is that Fastball velocity or Sinker? (Legend has Sinker bolded).