How Many Pitches Does it Take? Part One
I’ve been talking about pitches, pitching patterns, and pitch usage a lot lately. Whether it be through PitchFx charts, simply sharing observations, or talking about a pitcher who needs an additional pitch. Finally, I broke down and gathered the data needed to see whether having a surplus of pitches or only a couple mattered to performance.
Most people have the idea that quality matters more than quantity in mind. I know I did. In fact, while running the query (last three years, at least 5% usage of the pitch, at least 150 innings) only one pitcher recorded more than five pitches and that was Ryan Franklin with six. As you’ll see, Ryan Franklin is not a particularly good pitcher. Franklin is passable, but I think you would expect more from someone who has a constant advantage in game theory. Now, it is possible that Franklin falls into patterns, tips his pitches, or simply throws hittable garbage, I’ll leave that up to you to figure out, my only interest is the amount of pitches used modestly and whether it makes for better pitchers.
We begin today with that query I mentioned earlier. No restriction on amount of games started and only 150 innings over the last three years; meaning relievers like Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, and Jonathan Papelbon were eligible to make the cut. Let’s get to the data, shall we?
Franklin was the only pitcher with six pitches and 28 pitchers had five pitches qualify. Tradition has most starters throwing 3-4 pitches and most relievers having one or two. Tradition holds true here. 119 pitchers had four pitches qualify, 134 had three, and 39 had two. Franklin failed to make a start over the last three years meanwhile pitchers with 5 pitches saw 64% of their games come as starters, 60.2% for four pitch qualifiers, 32.2% for three pitches, and 11.7% for two pitches.
Let’s look at how they actually performed:
Are the relievers skewing the two and three pitch numbers? Tomorrow we’ll separate the starters from the pack and see if that’s the case.
This is an interesting line of analysis. I’d never thought about actually trying to see whether more pitches helps. Still, though, it seems like the actual value of having more pitches is going to be dwarfed by the ‘junk-ball effect’–the pitchers who don’t have enough stuff or speed to make it on their first 2-3 pitches are going to work harder on developing different pitches.
Maybe you could focus on individual pitchers’ difference in performance in the year or two after they develop a new pitch?
Ooh, good idea.
I’ll see if I can’t find a few after I wrap this series, but did you have a certain pitcher(s?) in mind?
Well, as a Mariners fan, the example that comes to mind is JJ Putz–there was a clear example of how adding another pitch helped in a game theory sense. He added a splitter that looked similar to his fastball from the delivery. It helped that it was a very good splitter, of course.
Is there a way that you can systematically look at pitchers who add pitches from one year to the next, or can you only look up pitchers on a career basis?
Halladay (cutter), ErvSantana (slider) would be two I’d like to see if you have the time.
How about White Sox pitchers who were taught the cutter after joining the organization? Jenks, Contreras, Danks and Esteban Loiaza come to mind — as do guys like Aardsma, Sisco, MacDougal, etc. It’s been a fairly well-documented strategy from the ChiSox’s scouting side, but I’d be curious to see if it truly pays off using this form of analysis. Just my two cents …
Lincecum’s changeup may have been a major help