How Much Longer Will Figgins Keep His Job?
It appears that the Giants are preparing to cut their losses. Paying Miguel Tejada $6.5 million to produce -0.9 WAR won’t rank among Brian Sabean’s career highlights, but at this point it appears wiser to write off the sunk cost than continue the experiment. When the team activates Pablo Sandoval from the disabled list later this week, chances are we’ll see the Giants release one of three worst regulars in the league.
Tejada, however, is not the worst hitter in the league. Two players have managed to outdo his .223 wOBA. One is Alcides Escobar, though he at least provides value with the glove. WIth a UZR of 6 he ranks seventh in the league, and fourth among infielders; his DRS also ranks near the top of the league. But not even Escobar’s .218 wOBA sits in the league’s cellar. That dishonor belongs to Chone Figgins, with a .207 wOBA. While his leash is understandably longer than Tejada’s, I do wonder exactly how far it extends.
While last year was a disappointment for Figgins — his .302 wOBA was the lowest he’d produced during his career as a full-time player — this year is nothing but a disaster. At least last season he had two months where he produced an above-average wOBA. This year things have gotten progressively worse, as he went from a .250 wOBA in April to .176 in May. In June he is 3-for-21, all singles, with one walk. He’s also 7-for-13 in stolen base attempts, which is miles off his career 74% success rate. Of course, he might be pressing on the base paths, because he’s not out there very often; his .227 OBP is lowest in the league by 10 points.
It’s clear that the Mariners are seeking upgrades to their league-worst offense. Today they called up Mike Carp, 25, to help boost production in left field. The Mariners have just a .276 wOBA from that position, which is the second-worst mark in the league. That sets the bar low for Carp, who can help his team even with below-average production. Yet, there is no bar lower than the Mariners at third base. The team .221 wOBA at the position is worst in the league by 45 points. Upgrading there would mean an even more significant boost to the team’s offensive output.
There’s a clear fit, too. Dustin Ackley has been destroying the PCL this year, producing a .404 wOBA in 296 PA. There was a good chance he’d make his way to Seattle this year, anyway, and now that we’re around the Super Two deadline his call-up becomes more and more likely. Of course, the Mariners planned to make him an easy decision, as they signed Adam Kennedy this off-season to take over the position. Yet Kennedy has been the team’s second best hitter this year, so they can’t exactly put him to the bench. He would have to take over third base, where he has played 737 innings in the last two years. That could provide the Mariners with a more significant upgrade than they’d get with Carp in left, and could help keep the offense moving as they continue contending in the AL West.
If it were that easy, though, the Mariners likely would have made the move already. Figgins himself presents an obstacle, since he has two years and $17 million remaining on his contract after this year. Would they release him now, just a year and two-plus months into the contract? Could they, and he, deal with a temporary bench assignment? It’s easy for us, looking in from the outside, to declare the Figgins contract a sunk cost and move on from it. But that’s a very real $20 million or so the Mariners still owe Figgins, and they want every chance to recoup some of that value. That makes benching a more likely scenario, though that involves handling egos, and thus is not in the wheelhouse of a FanGraphs writer.
The Mariners are in a tough spot right now. They’re 31-30, just 2.5 games behind the Rangers, who haven’t demonstrated any kind of dominance in the AL West. With some improvements on the offensive side of the ball they could stay in the race right through September. But that means making those changes, and making them tout de suite. The right move, from a baseball standpoint, is to bench or release Figgins and promote Ackley, preferably two weeks ago. But with upwards of $20 million involved, the matter becomes more complicated. What’s more important, hanging on in an attempt to extract value from a high-priced free agent, or doing everything possible to remain in contention for the division? I think the answer is clear to outsiders. I wonder how it looks from inside the Mariners’ front office.
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
I certainly hope you’re right about Tejada. Signs seem to be pointing in that direction, but it’s far from a lock.
Good stuff, Joe. I suppose the one thing Seattle can hope for (aside from Figgins somehow improving) is that another team is willing to perform a bad contract swap.
Since LAA already had Figgins, one cannot even insert a good joke here.
Figgins and Jack Z may be out the door together.
I really don’t see Z on the “hot seat.” Figgins has been awful but the contract was not completely awful at the time of the signing. While last year was pretty dreadful, many of his moves this year have worked out (Smoak, Kennedy, Bedard, calling up Pineda)
Jack is not going anywhere.
The Mariners are playing way above national expectations and are exceeding local expectations as well. I really don’t see how GMZ’s job is in any way threatened.
As for Figgins, though, if I never see him again it’ll be too soon.
Maybe this is just a coincidence, but when Figgins was an Angel,
his numbers were great, wich is why the Mariners spent so much money on him. Now that Figgins is with another team, his numbers have dropped, and he’s not the same player anymore.
And since he left the Angels, the Angels have yet to find a consistent lead-off hitter, and their numbers have drastically dropped. Coincidence? You tell me.
It’s possible that Jack Z is not on the hot seat, and I certainly wouldn’t view such an opinion to be popular here. I thought expectations for the Mariners last year were reasonably high, and performance was incredibly low.
This year, the RS v. RA is allowed is much better.
I did not view the situation as SEA playing above expectations.
while such things have happened, i think by “bad” you mean “measurably worse than the worst ever of all time”
Isn’t this the same situation as the Giants last year. Bench Aaron Rowand, call up Buster Posey and get the best team on the field.
Bench Figgins, call up Ackley already!
Is there an equivalently bad contract/player out there in the league? I’m trying to think of what team could possibly be willing to trade something terrible for Figgins, but I’m coming up short. I can only think of someone like Zito or Lackey, neither of which I think their teams are willing to give up on yet. What’s the worst player with the highest contract out there right now? I’m having a hard time thinking of who could be worse than Figgins.
Vernon Wells?
i mean, vernon wells might not be (ok, is not) worth his contract, but he has the ability to provide legitimate (slightly) positive value for his team…figgins is being well paid to make his team worse, and his negative effect is greater than that of any other player in the league. at least vernon wells would be a decent 4th OF…im not sure figgins could even be a serviceable ball boy
bobby bonilla?
Got to think the Cubs would jump at sending Soriano, even if they have to throw in a lot of money. He can’t play major league quality outfield anymore…he’s got to move to a team where he can DH soon.
Jason Bay?
Dan Uggla?
Bay would be a possibility if for no other reason than he’s said in the past he’d like to play close to home. However, it’s hard to see what he offers the M’s at this point (beyond the virtue of just removing Figgins from the roster, which is a given with any of these swap ideas).
ichiro
Miguel Tejada, Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito.. nearly 40 million this year on a guy about to be outright released, a fifth outfielder, and the 6th starting pitcher on the Giants five man staff
this. amazing how well the giants have performed with so much deadweight. hope sandoval comes back strong and sends tejada to the bench or packing.
Alex Rios? he’s put up -.1 WAR so far and is owed much more than figgins is
As a White Sox fan, I pray that they don’t trade Rios for Figgins
Gauging from past experience, I think this is just about the time when the team is going to announce that Figgins has some kind of injury that he’s been playing through, but it’s reached the point where he needs to go on the 15-day DL. If this follows the usual pattern Figgins will make announce that he’s been trying to play through the pain, but it hasn’t gotten better and it’s sapping his performance.
The Mariners will then have Figgins on the DL for as long as necessary to do “rehab”, meaning work with coaches on mechanics, get head “clear”, etc., followed by a minor league rehab assignment.
Da Troof !
Figgins is definitely the worst contract/player out there in the league. He is killing the M’s. Having to watch him day in and day out saps the fan base. Just look at his body language, even his facial expression. He’s done, way overdone. Time to DFA.
Joe, you should have this post because in one year you will be able to do a Find/Replace for Figgins/Ichiro and repost. Might be able to do it sooner than a year.
We’ll see. I suspect it’ll never reach that point, because before it does Ichiro will retire back to Japan. And no, it hasn’t come close to that point yet (Ichiro won’t be -5 UZR all season)
Sorry. Should have written “save” not “have.”
My conspiracy theory is that Figgins is “still” employed by the flippin Angels getting paid a double salary to hinder Seattle’s efforts. He was sooooo pesky in Anaheim and always seemed to not only get on base, but steal 2 bases while doing so, and then find away every time to cross home plate.
This is painful to watch.
How about Seattle tell the Mets we’ll swap Wright/Figgins and pay for that $15M/year contract “if” Seattle ALSO pays for the entire Beltran contract. Throw the Mets a bone with some B & C level prospects and Seattle is off.
Dreamin? Maybe, but that fixes Seattle’s 2 weakest positions this year at 3B and LF.
God that would be the worst move in Mets history.
I don’t know, Wilpon doesn’t think any of the Mets are worth very much. (Of course Wilpon is himself apparently not worth anything close to what he thought, either)
Rowand 4 Figgins? Rowand may be a better player now but SF doesn’t need a 6th outfielder
But what would SF do with Figgins?
play him at SS in place of Tejada?
They already have Fontenot doing that. Tejada is playing 3B, and Figgins could replace him there in the sense of standing near that bag while Lincecum & co pitch, but his fielding at that position this season has been dreadful:
Tejada (256 innings @ 3B): 12.3 UZR/150
Figgins (476 innings @ 3B): -1.7 UZR/150
Not “Mark Reynolds” dreadful, but still — not an upgrade
Figgins for Rowand is a reasonable trade of bad contracts. Both are owed about $20 million total (Figgins for remainder of 2011, 2012, 2013, and Rowand for remainder of 2011, 2012).
Seattle will have excess infielders when Ackley arrives, and could use Rowand as a 4th / 5th OF. The question is what would SF want him for? Perhaps use him as a backup IF after releasing Miguel Tejada.
Anyway, at least the contract values balance out. Soriano is still owed about $70 million by the Cubs, and Uggla is owed about $57 million by Atlanta.
I had fun checking out Fangraphs’ take on the Figgins signing at the time. Highlights include a description of the contract as “pretty prudent” and “Figgins has aged like fine wine.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mariners-sign-figgins/
UZR is very, very volatile. Those making predictions need to treat it (and WAR values based on it) as a fickle friend. [Nyjer Morgan and Brett Gardner wave hello.]
I have a shiny $100 bill for you if you can link to the place that you predicted that Chone Figgins would completely forget how to hit the instant the ink was dry on that contract. There was more to liking Figgins than UZR.
He looked like a pretty good player when he signed the contract. Seemed a lock for above-average speed, defense, and OBP for at least the near future.
I didn’t. But the way we improve predictions is to look at them in hindsight.
The contract was fine. The decision to take a GG 3B and premier leadoff hitter and make him a 2B batting #2 taking pitches behind Ichiro was foolish.
He’s played 3B every game he’s started this year. He’s shown nothing like GG defense, and his offense is worse than it was when he was playing 2B last year. And it’s not like he was exclusively a 3B with the Angels: of his 936 games with them, nearly half (409) were somewhere other than 3B.
are the whire sox willing to give up on dunn?
If they do they’ll get a better deal than Chone Figgins.
Only time will tell what the M’s do with this situation.
you don’t say
Put Figgins on the bench for now and let him play the super-sub role IF/OF role he’s played in the past (even if would be a not-so-super-sub role, at this point). I know he wasn’t brought in to do this, but circumstances have changed, and Chone is not really in a position to complain.
He might some value as a pinch-runner/fill-in guy (albeit a very expensive) one. The Ms have enough weak bats in the lineup, they can’t afford to keep trotting out a nearly nonexistent one.
Figgins for Dice K. It will give Ichiro someone to chat with.
Figgins has been severely unlucky. Go calculate his xBABIP from his batted balls and compare it to his BABIP.
Some guys just can’t hit at Safeco.
Beltre’s stats were terrible in Seattle, too.
BABIP means a lot less when every ball in play is a weak dribbler that barely gets out of the infield grass.
Also Beltre’s stats were hurt because he hit homeruns. Figgins wouldn’t lose value if they took the fence away all together.
Personally I hope they try and put Kennedy there. Liddi isn’t ready, and Mangini isn’t really much of an option. And Tui seems to be dead as a prospect. If they can give Figgins away it’d be wonderful…
I have a feeling that, if Figgins were cut loose and available at the minimum, he would end up back with the Angels and perhaps a better place.
i think there is something wrong with Figgins in his personal life and it is carrying over to the field- like depression, alcohol, or something
Hey guys I’m really sorry. I’ll try harder.
I hate you.
I love that the Giants may be releasing Tejada within a week, but good ol’ Bochy is still getting him plenty of playing time, while also batting him SECOND. Worst hitter in the NL, (hopefully) about to be released, still starting daily and having the 3rd most PA on the whole team. Amazing.
I forgot how to walk.
I still hate you.
Figgins will get two singles and a walk in the last game of the year and win the Comeback Player of the Year award.
What people aren’t considering here is the Ichiro effect. Figgy was a beast in Anaheim. Could easily still be. Problem is, offensively speaking, the M’s already had their Figgins-esque player: Ichiro. Figgy is a leadoff man who can move over to scoring position on his own. Put him in a leadoff role and he’ll flourish again. Too bad it won’t happen while Ichiro is a Mariner!
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. People should be epected to perform the same regardless of where they hit in the lineup (meaningless R’sBI notwithstanding).
If you put Figgins in the leadoff spot, he will still suck.
How about Bay and cash ($8-$10 mil) for Figgins.
For the Mets it makes sense for a number of reasons. For one, they would still be shedding about about $10 mil over the course of both deals. If the Mets do indeed go into fire sale mode, Figgins’ versatility could come in handy if guys like Wright, Reyes and Beltran. As for Seattle, a resurgent Bay would be a major upgrade over a guy like Mike Carp and would provide a much needed power bat from the right side.
Maybe Jason Bay if the Mets pay the entire 20+ million difference.
As much as Chone is not liked in Seattle, and can’t play above the minor league level to save his life; Chone for Bay & 8-10mil would make the Mariners take on a player just as old, playing just about as poorly, at a less valuable position, and raise their payroll by 10-13 mil over the course of the contract. The Mets would have to eat the entire difference or toss in some B level prospects in my opinion.
The M’s aren’t going to up their payroll by over 10 million over the next 2 years just to move Chone. They might as well just buy him out in that case.
we need you at home with the rays figgy.don’t worry bout those haters, just keep your head up.