How Much Power Does Andrew Toles Have?

Part of this job is writing about players who’ve put together interesting performances in small sample sizes. Really, at this point of the season, that describes basically every player. With Andrew Toles, though, it’s even harder: his whole career is a small sample size. And now, depending on the severity of his current knee injury, we might be forced to continue trying to evaluate him as a player based on very little evidence.

In that brief career, however, Toles has been good. Among active players who both (a) have recorded 200-plus plate appearances (Toles has 214) and (b) have yet to turn 25 (which he does in two weeks), Toles ranks 40th out of 99 by Wins Above Replacement — and he’s top 30 in isolated power.

That latter distinction is interesting. Projections, perhaps seeing powerless seasons in the minor leagues and dealing with a missed year in some form or another, don’t see that kind of power. I had to ask the player why they might be missing the point.

Before a game with the Giants this month, I wondered if something had changed for the soft-spoken son of former NFL linebacker Alvin Toles. The Dodger was succinct: “Mechanics.” Thanks to his agent, former Red Sox outfielder Reggie Jefferson, Toles has raised his hands during his load. This, at a time when players everywhere are dropping their hands for more power.

“I’m real rotational,” Toles said. “So I would hit the ball hard and it would just be topspin or slicing, and so now I’m trying get more direct to the ball, get a little bit more leverage, so I can drive it out of the park.” Toles wants to be “more direct to the ball instead of around it.” An adjustment to the hands, in particular, was key: “For me, I was dropping my hands too far. I needed to use more legs better and keep my hands up.”

Here’s Toles from the side as a prospect in the Rays organization in 2013 (courtesy video by Chris Blessing):

And here he is now, after working with Turner Ward on the Dodgers’ staff, and listening to his agent.

You might notice that he starts high and drops low in both videos (and used to start with his hands even higher in high school). If he starts low, it sounds like he goes back up before going down. “I drop low and kick high, so when I put my foot down it’s too long for me to come all the way down and then come all the way back up and all the way around. I’m pretty quick so I can get away with it and hit ground balls, but the higher you go, the more they exploit that.”

Still, other than the kick being more aggressive, it’s hard to see much of a difference. So what about that lost year or two, when he was somewhat mediocre in 2014, and then out of baseball completely the next year? “Personal issues. Had to straighten that out,” Toles said in almost a whisper. “Went back home, got it together. I needed help that was more important than playing baseball.”

The Rays were helpful, Toles pointed out. “They tried. It wasn’t enough aid or whatever. They didn’t know what was going on,” he said. “We figured that out with the right doctor.”

The league has noticed Toles, and that might be one of the best ways to tell he has power they believe in. He’s seeing fewer fastballs this year and way more curves. Only nine players have seen a bigger decline in fastball percentage. When I asked him if they changed the book to high fastballs and tons of curves, he laughed. “Yup, exactly what it is.”

“They’re not throwing me fastballs any more,” he smiled. “They’re waiting to see if I can adjust to the offspeed.” Given that he’s making more contact, and hitting for the same power, maybe it’s time to believe like the league does. Sure, it’s only 200 plate appearances, but sometimes circumstances lead to this sort of thing.