How Snellzilla Got His Groove Back

For the next two weeks, we’re going to spend a lot of time and energy debating Shohei Ohtani’s trade market, just in case the Angels continue to backslide and Arte Moreno can be extricated from his fortress of solitude and cajoled into trading his franchise player. And it should be so; Ohtani is the most interesting player in baseball, and once the trade deadline passes, I’m sure we’ll move on to talking about where he’ll land next year and how many hundreds of millions of dollars he’ll earn over the next decade.

But Ohtani is not the only free-agent-to-be who’s playing out the string on a disappointing team. As much as the Angels are taking on water, they’re not sunk yet. And the Padres are even less sunk than the Angels are. With that said, I’m sure they’re not happy to be in fourth place in their division during the last week of the Tour de France, with open questions about whether Blake Snell will be a part of the team’s future.

Snell obviously can’t do all that 60-homer pace stuff Ohtani does, but he’s going to be one of the most sought-after pitchers in the forthcoming free agent class.

Now, Snell can be a little polarizing. He’s one of those pitchers who’s unhittable when he’s on and quite vulnerable when he’s not. (Snell’s NLCS Game 2 matchup against Aaron Nola last year was Woodstock for this type of erstwhile front-end starter.) Over a whole season, the bumps even out and the numbers look good. But a team that’s going to lavish something like $25 million or $30 million a year on a pitcher expects a postseason performer who’s going to have it in October.

That’s probably an unfair standard to hold any pitcher to, and besides, over 12 career playoff outings, Snell is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA. If that number is lower than you’d expect, it’s probably for one of two reasons: First, you’re underrating just how many innings Snell pitched when he was white-hot at the end of Tampa Bay’s run to the pennant in 2020. Or second, you can’t shake how ugly it looks when Snell gets it wrong.

Snell is a man of contrasts. Among 66 qualified starters in 2023, he has the worst walk rate but the third-best strikeout rate. He’s allowed more walks than any pitcher in the National League this season, but he’s also allowing the fewest hits per nine innings.

Pitchers differ stylistically just as boxers do. George Kirby doesn’t deliver crushing head shots, but he uses his jab to maintain control over the bout. Marcus Stroman wiggles out of hard contact like Roy Jones Jr. Ohtani hits so hard opposing trainers keep asking to check his gloves for cement. Extend the metaphor as far as you like.

Snell likes to keep his distance from his opponent, closing only when he thinks he can land a knockout blow. This way of pitching can be a little tedious when Snell struggles to land a decisive hit. The left-hander has thrown just 42.7% of his pitches in the strike zone this year, which is the lowest rate of any qualified starter by some distance. That’s where the troubles with his walk rate come in. Snell hasn’t posted a walk rate lower than 8.9% in any season of his career.

The difference between effectiveness and not is subtle, but the distinction for Snell is clear. Within the shadow zone — Baseball Savant’s 6 2/3-inch-thick band around the border of the strike zone — Snell is the fifth-most effective pitcher in baseball this year out of 300 pitchers. In the next zone out, the chase zone, he’s 237th.

With all that said, Snell is making it work in the aggregate. His ERA- is third-best among qualified starters. And just as he’s always walked people, he hasn’t had a strikeout rate under 30% since 2017.

Hitters know Snell’s reputation. He’s tied for the lowest swing rate among qualified starters and is 48th out 66 in O-Swing%. But on those rare occasions when hitters do swing, they can’t touch him. Snell has the second-lowest contact rate in baseball this year, behind Spencer Strider. When you split that out into O-Contact% and Z-Contact%, Snell once again has either sole or shared custody of second place behind Strider.

How is he doing this? Well, through Monday, Baseball Savant has tracked 634 individual secondary pitches (e.g. Graham Ashcraft’s slider or Austin Gomber’s changeup) that have been used 100 or more times this year. Of those, only 28 have generated a whiff rate of 50% or more. Strider and Snell are the only two pitchers who own more than one of those 28 individual pitches. Snell is the only one with three.

Because Snell throws three potent secondary pitches, rather than spamming one pitch the way Charlie Morton does with his curveball, he doesn’t top the pitch value leaderboards. But he has the highest run value per 100 pitches (minimum 50 PA) on his curveball and is in the top 15 on his changeup.

Snell’s curveball, a contemptuous sideways-breaking low-80s thing, is about the same as it ever was. But last year, he adapted his slider from the 87 mph offering it used to be and is now throwing it almost two ticks harder, with less vertical break. And he’s not throwing it as much against righties.

Being a left-handed pitcher, Snell works more than three times as frequently without the platoon advantage as he does with it. Snell has always had a changeup to use on such occasions, and only on such occasions. He hasn’t thrown a changeup to a left-handed hitter since 2017.

The change has been a key part of Snell’s arsenal throughout his career; in his Cy Young campaign of 2018, Snell used his changeup against right-handed hitters almost a quarter of the time, more than any other secondary pitch. Snell and his changeup had a bit of a tiff in 2021, which led to him using it a career-low rate in 2021 and 2022. But now it’s back, generating a whiff rate of 50.3%. And it’s not so much that the changeup itself has been so good, it’s that the more Snell throws it, the more effective his breaking pitches are:

The curveball and changeup have been working extremely well together of late. Over his past 10 starts, Snell has allowed just four earned runs in 58 innings, lowering his seasonal ERA from 5.40 to 2.71. That has coincided with an increase in curveball usage from around 14% in April and May to 27.9% in July, and 31.8% against right-handed batters. In July, Snell has allowed just 11 hits — 10 singles and a double — and of those, eight came off his fastball. The changeup and curveball combined have accounted for just five hits in the past two months. Since May 25, Snell’s ERA is 0.62; no other starter in baseball has an ERA below 1.70 in that span.

Unfortunately, the incredible run Snell is on hasn’t amounted to much for the Padres, who have gone 6-4 in those 10 starts and currently sit 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. That leaves them in an odd position regarding Snell. They won’t have a prayer of making a comeback without Snell pitching as well as he has. On the other hand, there might not be a better time to cash in on a free-agent-to-be who’s pitching out of his mind. Surely San Diego’s loss could be the gain of any team that’s currently in or near a playoff spot and in need of a front-of-the-rotation starter. Which is to say, every team that’s currently in or near a playoff spot.

Snell can run hot and cold, but right now he’s the hottest pitcher in baseball. And if San Diego’s willing to part with him, he’d be quite a consolation prize for any team that misses out on Ohtani.