2016 Catcher Back-Pick Data
If you had the unfortunate honor of following me on Twitter during the 2016 season, you were subjected to several dozen versions of this tweet:
Request: If your team’s catcher throws behind a runner at 1B this year, tweet me date/team/inning/batter. Please RT for science!
— Neil Weinberg (@NeilWeinberg44) April 3, 2016
I undertook a yearlong effort to catalog and analyze every instance in which a catcher threw behind a runner at first base and the product of that endeavor was an essay in the 2017 Hardball Times Annual. That essay contains answers to questions including, but certainly not limited to:
- Which catcher threw to first most often? (Salvador Perez.)
- The average success rate on back-pick attempts? (About 10%.)
- Which catcher was most accurate when throwing to first? (Yadier Molina.)
- Do base-stealers draw more throws? (They seem to.)
If said essay failed to quench your thirst for back-pick factoids, you will likely have interest in getting your hands on the raw data which you can download here. If you use the data for any sort of published work, all I ask is that you cite me and send me a link on Twitter (@NeilWeinberg44).
Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.
Good stuff. Interesting that of the 8 pitchers that were involved in back-picks, 3 were BoSox – Buchholz (6), Price (9), Porcello (6).
Very cool stuff. It’s fascinating to look at the RHB/LHB splits. Almost 50% higher success rate when there’s a left handed batter (12.4% vs 8.5%). That’s despite the runner having a slightly (1.5%) shorter average lead and the catcher having a 7% longer pop time.
Before seeing this data I would have thought there’d be higher success with a right handed batter, making it easier for the catcher to throw. I’m now wondering if the batter’s handedness has a bigger impact on the runner’s vision than on the catcher’s throw.
Some of the difference is that the throws are 7% more frequent with left-handed batters.
Other stuff: the only runner picked off twice (Mookie Betts) had the highest BsR and Brett Gardner is the runner with the most attempts at 8. The median Pop and Lead times split by out and safe are a lot closer than the averages shown in the Annual.
Thanks for sharing.
OMG this is awesome. Yay for crowdsourcing! And thanks so much for putting this out for everyone to play with.
Your data is awesome, though there’re two other things that might be worth tracking:
1) Pitcher-handedness: I’d suspect that runners at first have smaller leads vs LHP and therefore would attract fewer back-picks. The opposite is likely true at the bases. You already track batter and 1B handedness and pitcher would be good too.
2) Steals: you track whether the runner was safe, but not whether any runners successfully stole on a back-pick. Maybe there were no examples, but it’d be cool to know.
Found this really interesting too. Most successful back picks:
1. David Ross 4 (448 innings at catcher)
2. Wilson Contreras 3 (389 innings)
2. James McCann 3 (843 innings)
4. Roberto Perez 2 (451 innings)
4. Yan Gomes 2 (582 innings)
4. Sandy Leon 2 (600 innings)
4. Dioneer Navarro 2(726 innings)
4. Matt Weiters 2 (980 innings)
4. Wilson Ramos 2 (1096 innings)
Two Cubs part time catchers led the league, both have great arms but maybe something the Cubs are focused on. Also, only 1 of those 7 came with Jon Lester pitching which I would have assumed way more would have. This is great stuff Neil, thanks!