2018 UZR and UZR Update!
Ultimate Zone Ratings (UZR), provided by Mitchel Lichtman, are now available for the 2018 season! These will update weekly as usual.
In addition to the the new 2018 data, the 2012 through 2017 data has been updated. You might recall that in 2017, there were some changes to the UZR methodology that were to be backported to 2012 – 2016. This has now happened. Here is a brief refresher on what those changes were.
– UZR now uses hit timer data (hang time) rather than hit type designations, which is an improvement on the methodology and thus the results.
– The methodology has changed a little that allows UZR to account for some of the noise associated with imperfect data. The net result of this change is that extreme UZR’s, which were likely caused by, to some extent at least, noise in the data, rather than extreme performance, will be slightly ‘dampened.’ We think that these new values, while very close to the old ones in most cases, more accurately reflect the actual performance of the players in question.
Below you will find the changes of 5 or more runs in each season:
2012
2012 UZR Changes
| Season | Name | Position | Team | Old Range | New Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Curtis Granderson | CF | Yankees | -18.0 | -5.4 | 12.6 |
| 2012 | Brandon Inge | 3B | Tigers | -0.2 | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| 2012 | Shin-Soo Choo | RF | Indians | -15.5 | -7.2 | 8.3 |
| 2012 | Miguel Cabrera | 3B | Tigers | -10.9 | -3.0 | 7.8 |
| 2012 | Michael Morse | LF | Nationals | -9.0 | -1.3 | 7.6 |
| 2012 | Hunter Pence | RF | Phillies | -7.7 | -0.5 | 7.2 |
| 2012 | J.D. Martinez | LF | Astros | -7.6 | -0.6 | 7.0 |
| 2012 | Brennan Boesch | RF | Tigers | -11.5 | -4.7 | 6.9 |
| 2012 | Dexter Fowler | CF | Rockies | -12.0 | -5.2 | 6.8 |
| 2012 | Matt Kemp | CF | Dodgers | -12.3 | -5.8 | 6.5 |
| 2012 | Dayan Viciedo | LF | White Sox | -5.6 | 0.9 | 6.5 |
| 2012 | Rickie Weeks Jr. | 2B | Brewers | -14.2 | -8.0 | 6.2 |
| 2012 | Carlos Gonzalez | LF | Rockies | -5.4 | 0.7 | 6.2 |
| 2012 | Yoenis Cespedes | LF | Athletics | -9.6 | -3.5 | 6.1 |
| 2012 | Derek Jeter | SS | Yankees | -13.2 | -7.1 | 6.1 |
| 2012 | Rajai Davis | LF | Blue Jays | -10.8 | -4.9 | 5.9 |
| 2012 | Jose Altuve | 2B | Astros | -11.4 | -5.6 | 5.9 |
| 2012 | Ryan Theriot | 2B | Giants | -8.2 | -2.4 | 5.8 |
| 2012 | Andrew McCutchen | CF | Pirates | -6.3 | -0.7 | 5.6 |
| 2012 | Alex Gordon | LF | Royals | 6.4 | 1.3 | -5.1 |
| 2012 | Ben Revere | RF | Twins | 13.5 | 8.5 | -5.1 |
| 2012 | Chase Utley | 2B | Phillies | 7.6 | 2.4 | -5.2 |
| 2012 | Trayvon Robinson | LF | Mariners | 5.3 | -0.1 | -5.4 |
| 2012 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | Red Sox | 14.3 | 8.7 | -5.5 |
| 2012 | David Murphy | LF | Rangers | 10.6 | 5.0 | -5.6 |
| 2012 | Danny Espinosa | 2B | Nationals | 6.5 | 0.6 | -5.9 |
| 2012 | Alex Presley | LF | Pirates | 8.2 | 2.1 | -6.1 |
| 2012 | Jon Jay | CF | Cardinals | 5.6 | -0.5 | -6.2 |
| 2012 | Chris Young | CF | Diamondbacks | 7.5 | 1.3 | -6.3 |
| 2012 | David Wright | 3B | Mets | 15.8 | 9.0 | -6.7 |
| 2012 | Starling Marte | LF | Pirates | 7.6 | 0.4 | -7.2 |
| 2012 | Peter Bourjos | CF | Angels | 13.6 | 6.1 | -7.5 |
| 2012 | Michael Bourn | CF | Braves | 21.3 | 13.8 | -7.5 |
| 2012 | Josh Reddick | RF | Athletics | 13.9 | 5.9 | -8.0 |
| 2012 | Jason Heyward | RF | Braves | 23.2 | 11.7 | -11.5 |
| 2012 | Brandon Inge | 3B | Athletics | 8.1 | -4.3 | -12.4 |
2013
2013 UZR Changes
| Season | Name | Position | Team | Old Range | New Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Matt Kemp | CF | Dodgers | -18.0 | -5.2 | 12.8 |
| 2013 | Miguel Cabrera | 3B | Tigers | -17.6 | -7.5 | 10.1 |
| 2013 | Aaron Hicks | CF | Twins | -10.4 | -0.6 | 9.7 |
| 2013 | Shin-Soo Choo | CF | Reds | -16.5 | -7.3 | 9.2 |
| 2013 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SS | Indians | -12.5 | -3.8 | 8.6 |
| 2013 | Alexi Amarista | CF | Padres | -10.5 | -2.3 | 8.2 |
| 2013 | Adam Jones | CF | Orioles | -12.8 | -5.4 | 7.4 |
| 2013 | David Freese | 3B | Cardinals | -17.0 | -9.6 | 7.3 |
| 2013 | Nick Markakis | RF | Orioles | -9.2 | -1.9 | 7.3 |
| 2013 | Eduardo Nunez | SS | Yankees | -20.3 | -13.0 | 7.3 |
| 2013 | Adeiny Hechavarria | SS | Marlins | -9.9 | -2.8 | 7.1 |
| 2013 | Placido Polanco | 3B | Marlins | -2.4 | 4.7 | 7.1 |
| 2013 | Alex Gordon | LF | Royals | -1.0 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| 2013 | Carlos Beltran | RF | Cardinals | -10.8 | -4.2 | 6.6 |
| 2013 | Nori Aoki | RF | Brewers | -4.3 | 1.8 | 6.0 |
| 2013 | Raul Ibanez | LF | Mariners | -11.7 | -6.0 | 5.7 |
| 2013 | Nick Franklin | 2B | Mariners | -7.1 | -1.5 | 5.6 |
| 2013 | Charlie Blackmon | CF | Rockies | -7.8 | -2.2 | 5.6 |
| 2013 | Melky Cabrera | LF | Blue Jays | -6.3 | -0.8 | 5.5 |
| 2013 | Dayan Viciedo | LF | White Sox | -9.5 | -4.1 | 5.4 |
| 2013 | Brendan Ryan | SS | Mariners | -0.5 | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| 2013 | Derek Dietrich | 2B | Marlins | -6.2 | -0.9 | 5.3 |
| 2013 | Domonic Brown | LF | Phillies | -14.6 | -9.4 | 5.1 |
| 2013 | Chris Johnson | 3B | Braves | -6.1 | -1.0 | 5.1 |
| 2013 | Adrian Gonzalez | 1B | Dodgers | 6.1 | 1.0 | -5.1 |
| 2013 | Yunel Escobar | SS | Rays | 10.8 | 5.7 | -5.1 |
| 2013 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | Rockies | 20.5 | 15.3 | -5.2 |
| 2013 | David Murphy | LF | Rangers | 7.1 | 1.9 | -5.2 |
| 2013 | Yoenis Cespedes | LF | Athletics | 6.6 | 1.3 | -5.3 |
| 2013 | Will Venable | CF | Padres | 7.3 | 2.0 | -5.3 |
| 2013 | Chris Denorfia | RF | Padres | 6.5 | 1.2 | -5.3 |
| 2013 | Starling Marte | LF | Pirates | 10.7 | 5.1 | -5.6 |
| 2013 | Mark Ellis | 2B | Dodgers | 5.7 | 0.1 | -5.6 |
| 2013 | Mark Trumbo | 1B | Angels | 8.0 | 2.3 | -5.7 |
| 2013 | Carl Crawford | LF | Dodgers | 8.2 | 2.2 | -5.9 |
| 2013 | Juan Lagares | CF | Mets | 9.2 | 3.2 | -6.0 |
| 2013 | Mike Moustakas | 3B | Royals | 6.9 | 0.3 | -6.6 |
| 2013 | Andy Dirks | LF | Tigers | 10.2 | 3.3 | -6.9 |
| 2013 | Ben Zobrist | 2B | Rays | 11.3 | 4.1 | -7.2 |
| 2013 | Carlos Gomez | CF | Brewers | 19.1 | 11.3 | -7.8 |
| 2013 | Hunter Pence | RF | Giants | 8.3 | -0.4 | -8.7 |
| 2013 | Evan Longoria | 3B | Rays | 15.3 | 6.3 | -8.9 |
| 2013 | Gerardo Parra | RF | Diamondbacks | 17.5 | 8.5 | -9.0 |
| 2013 | Clint Barmes | SS | Pirates | 8.8 | -0.2 | -9.0 |
| 2013 | Jacoby Ellsbury | CF | Red Sox | 14.1 | 5.1 | -9.1 |
| 2013 | Jarrod Dyson | CF | Royals | 10.1 | 0.4 | -9.7 |
| 2013 | Manny Machado | 3B | Orioles | 30.3 | 20.1 | -10.2 |
| 2013 | Juan Uribe | 3B | Dodgers | 25.3 | 14.8 | -10.5 |
| 2013 | Andrelton Simmons | SS | Braves | 22.8 | 11.7 | -11.1 |
| 2013 | Colby Rasmus | CF | Blue Jays | 14.1 | 2.9 | -11.1 |
| 2013 | Shane Victorino | RF | Red Sox | 23.3 | 12.0 | -11.3 |
| 2013 | A.J. Pollock | CF | Diamondbacks | 16.2 | 3.8 | -12.5 |
2014
2014 UZR Changes
| Season | Name | Position | Team | Old Range | New Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Torii Hunter | RF | Tigers | -18.7 | -8.4 | 10.4 |
| 2014 | Nick Castellanos | 3B | Tigers | -16.9 | -9.3 | 7.6 |
| 2014 | Michael Brantley | LF | Indians | -8.5 | -1.0 | 7.5 |
| 2014 | Rajai Davis | LF | Tigers | -6.9 | 0.5 | 7.4 |
| 2014 | Matt Kemp | LF | Dodgers | -10.1 | -3.6 | 6.5 |
| 2014 | Adam Eaton | CF | White Sox | -2.1 | 4.2 | 6.3 |
| 2014 | Dexter Fowler | CF | Astros | -16.0 | -9.9 | 6.2 |
| 2014 | Colby Rasmus | CF | Blue Jays | -7.8 | -1.7 | 6.0 |
| 2014 | Matt Dominguez | 3B | Astros | -9.0 | -3.1 | 5.9 |
| 2014 | Gerardo Parra | RF | Diamondbacks | -3.6 | 1.9 | 5.5 |
| 2014 | Elvis Andrus | SS | Rangers | -5.2 | 0.3 | 5.5 |
| 2014 | Andrew McCutchen | CF | Pirates | -4.6 | 0.5 | 5.1 |
| 2014 | Yunel Escobar | SS | Rays | -15.4 | -10.3 | 5.1 |
| 2014 | Martin Prado | 3B | Diamondbacks | 2.3 | -3.1 | -5.4 |
| 2014 | Ian Kinsler | 2B | Tigers | 14.0 | 8.4 | -5.5 |
| 2014 | David Lough | LF | Orioles | 7.7 | 2.3 | -5.5 |
| 2014 | Christian Yelich | LF | Marlins | 14.7 | 9.1 | -5.6 |
| 2014 | Jarrod Dyson | CF | Royals | 15.3 | 9.7 | -5.6 |
| 2014 | Jon Jay | CF | Cardinals | 5.8 | 0.1 | -5.7 |
| 2014 | Jhonny Peralta | SS | Cardinals | 9.5 | 3.6 | -5.9 |
| 2014 | Jose Ramirez | SS | Indians | 7.2 | 0.8 | -6.5 |
| 2014 | Dustin Ackley | LF | Mariners | 7.4 | 0.5 | -7.0 |
| 2014 | Adam Jones | CF | Orioles | 1.7 | -5.4 | -7.1 |
| 2014 | Ender Inciarte | CF | Diamondbacks | 11.8 | 4.1 | -7.7 |
| 2014 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | Athletics | 14.4 | 6.2 | -8.2 |
| 2014 | Alex Gordon | LF | Royals | 18.1 | 9.8 | -8.3 |
| 2014 | Chase Utley | 2B | Phillies | 11.5 | 3.2 | -8.4 |
| 2014 | Billy Hamilton | CF | Reds | 14.7 | 5.9 | -8.8 |
| 2014 | Kevin Kiermaier | RF | Rays | 15.6 | 6.5 | -9.1 |
| 2014 | Juan Lagares | CF | Mets | 15.2 | 5.2 | -10.0 |
2015
2015 UZR Changes
| Season | Name | Position | Team | Old Range | New Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Juan Uribe | 3B | Dodgers | -1.3 | 6.7 | 8.0 |
| 2015 | Jose Bautista | RF | Blue Jays | -7.4 | -0.3 | 7.1 |
| 2015 | Robinson Cano | 2B | Mariners | -8.9 | -2.6 | 6.3 |
| 2015 | Pablo Sandoval | 3B | Red Sox | -16.5 | -10.3 | 6.1 |
| 2015 | Angel Pagan | CF | Giants | -8.9 | -2.9 | 6.0 |
| 2015 | Marlon Byrd | LF | Reds | -4.8 | 1.1 | 5.9 |
| 2015 | Gerardo Parra | CF | Brewers | -8.5 | -2.6 | 5.9 |
| 2015 | Avisail Garcia | RF | White Sox | -11.4 | -5.7 | 5.8 |
| 2015 | Byron Buxton | CF | Twins | -4.0 | 1.8 | 5.8 |
| 2015 | Michael Bourn | CF | Indians | -5.3 | 0.4 | 5.7 |
| 2015 | Matt Kemp | RF | Padres | -13.2 | -7.6 | 5.6 |
| 2015 | Ben Zobrist | 2B | Athletics | -4.9 | 0.4 | 5.3 |
| 2015 | Johnny Giavotella | 2B | Angels | -6.6 | -1.4 | 5.2 |
| 2015 | Juan Uribe | 3B | Braves | 2.0 | -3.7 | -5.7 |
| 2015 | Nick Ahmed | SS | Diamondbacks | 10.6 | 4.5 | -6.0 |
| 2015 | Yoenis Cespedes | LF | Tigers | 8.2 | 1.6 | -6.6 |
| 2015 | Michael Taylor | CF | Nationals | 6.3 | -0.3 | -6.7 |
| 2015 | Kevin Pillar | CF | Blue Jays | 15.3 | 8.1 | -7.2 |
| 2015 | Billy Hamilton | CF | Reds | 12.3 | 5.1 | -7.2 |
| 2015 | Kevin Kiermaier | CF | Rays | 23.2 | 11.8 | -11.4 |
2016
2016 UZR Changes
| Season | Name | Position | Team | Old Range | New Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Yoenis Cespedes | CF | Mets | -12.1 | -4.0 | 8.2 |
| 2016 | Alexei Ramirez | SS | Padres | -15.5 | -8.8 | 6.7 |
| 2016 | Charlie Blackmon | CF | Rockies | -4.7 | 1.8 | 6.5 |
| 2016 | Rougned Odor | 2B | Rangers | -15.6 | -9.4 | 6.2 |
| 2016 | Carlos Gonzalez | RF | Rockies | -3.3 | 2.7 | 6.1 |
| 2016 | Justin Upton | LF | Tigers | 0.6 | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| 2016 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SS | Mets | -4.7 | 0.6 | 5.3 |
| 2016 | Nick Ahmed | SS | Diamondbacks | 7.6 | 2.4 | -5.2 |
| 2016 | Justin Turner | 3B | Dodgers | 15.1 | 9.8 | -5.3 |
| 2016 | Carlos Gomez | CF | Astros | -2.4 | -7.7 | -5.4 |
| 2016 | Addison Russell | SS | Cubs | 16.4 | 10.8 | -5.7 |
| 2016 | Travis Jankowski | CF | Padres | 12.7 | 6.2 | -6.5 |
| 2016 | Francisco Lindor | SS | Indians | 21.5 | 14.3 | -7.2 |
| 2016 | Alex Gordon | LF | Royals | 9.2 | 1.8 | -7.4 |
| 2016 | Stephen Piscotty | RF | Cardinals | 10.5 | 3.1 | -7.4 |
| 2016 | Angel Pagan | LF | Giants | 5.5 | -2.0 | -7.5 |
| 2016 | Kevin Pillar | CF | Blue Jays | 21.5 | 12.3 | -9.2 |
2017
None.
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This is pretty fascinating. The overall picture on two of the players we would have previously considered as candidates for the best defensive players in the game (Hamilton & Kiermaier) changes substantially.
Yeah, these seems like some significant differences for some guys. KK had his 2016 UZR essentially cut in half.
Can someone smarter (or at least who has not been up since 4am) explain if this is a big deal or not?
What do you mean by a big deal?
So here’s my take: I’ve been noticing for a while that we hadn’t been getting as many “extreme” UZR values in 2017. Some people had interpreted that as a decline in athleticism for a bunch of players, and I had assumed it was because positioning was making elite defenders less valuable. Both may be true (and I think the extreme defense values actually dipped in 2016 too), but what it looks like is that the dip was at least partially related to changing methodology.
In short, if we have an image of someone as providing exceptionally good value with the glove in our head, we should probably temper that a bit until we can check their FG page to see updated results. We shouldn’t think that “glove-first” players like Pillar and Heyward were quite as valuable as their old FG pages made them look. Similarly, guys who were famously disasters in the outfield (like Matt Kemp) are really just regular old disasters (although we should check on the FG to verify).
Also interesting: Adam Eaton’s and Charlie Blackmon’s work in center field looks better under this new measurement.
At the surface level this represents a change from more to less crude understanding of the challenge presented to the fielder. Rather than using hit type buckets like flyball, liner, grounder, fliner (or whatever exactly was used), the system is now using hang time data which gives a better sense of what the fielder had to deal with.
Off the top of my head, this probably seems to help remove the effects of fielder positioning a bit (remember back in the day when Brett Lawrie was posting insane fielding numbers but it was due to him playing where the 2b was? Those extreme shift data were removed a while back but smaller shift or positioning effects were never really accounted for). This doesn’t totally remove those effects (UZR doesn’t know exactly where a fielder was positioned) but it provides better date for the model’s understanding of the challenge presented to the fielder.
The new range estimates for fielders *should* be improved – for players who appeared to ‘get worse’ like KK – he’s still elite….just normal elite and not video game numbers elite.
That explains why there is general differences between the new and old UZR (as does this article). But the question remains: why are guys like Billy Hamilton and Kiermaier seeing consistently reduced UZR numbers?
It’s a good question – the added granularity of these data may just help reduce the extremes – elite defenders are seeing reduced numbers while poor defenders are seeing improved numbers. It also may be helping with understanding defense in COL’s OF as those players tend to post uniformly negative numbers despite playing a solid defense when playing for other teams.
Hard to say without some QA on the old method. Could be that there was some bias towards those who have incredible range (and vice versa on the low end). This could’ve been true if the same person was analyzing all home games for a particular team.
I wish they had performed and published duplicates and replicates to determine the amount of accuracy/bias that existed in the dataset.
It seems to have ironed out the magnitude of the extremes, but the ordering has stayed roughly the same. Kiermaier is still the best overall CF in 2015 and 2016. However, instead of being 0.64 WAR better than Pagan in 2015, he is now considered to have only been 0.29 WAR better than him.
yeah, there are a lot of big name defenders on the negative end of these changes … Hamilton and Kiermaier. also Heyward, Machado, and Simmons.
Thanks! Fascinating stuff. Have these re-calculations already been utilized in older WAR calculations? I’ve looked at players whose pages I am more familiar with – or thought I was – but for the life of me can’t remember if players like Cabrera or Blackmon or Granderson, who have some big changes here, are different.
They have been.
Here is Alex Gordon’s new WAR
Thank you!
Can you do this for Mike Trout?
Trout didn’t really change much. One year he lost half a win and another he gained one, but other ares just +/- 2 runs
This confuses me. It doesn’t seem like “Def” in the old listing maps to “Fld” int he new listing at all?
They appear to be different custom tables. Fld is the UZR without positional adjustment. Def is UZR with positional adjustment.
I pulled it from the Wayback Machine. I have DEF as my custom dashboard metric (the new image), but FLD is the default, which is what Wayback would show (old image).
This makes a ton of sense. I noticed that some of the players who piled up insanely high UZRs in the past suddenly weren’t getting it this year. I thought it was because of the rise of positioning dampening defense effects, and that still could be happening, but this makes a ton of sense too.
So, how does this affect WAR values? Specifically I’m thinking about somebody heavily affected by this, like Kevin Pillar, who lost 16 runs over the span of two seasons. Is it as simple as using the runs-to-WAR multiplier, so those 9.2 runs he lost in 2016 equates to about 0.2 WAR?? Or did some positions lose more runs than others, so maybe the positional adjustments went down for CF, up for 3B, etc??
Isn’t it that ~10 runs equals 1 WAR? Basically for Pillar instead of providing ~2WAR of value via range alone, he’s providing ~1 WAR of value via range alone (still excellent at any position let alone CF).
This is correct.
Fun in small sample sizes for 2018:
-Lewis Brinson is running at replacement level despite a wRC+ of 18 because his defense has been stellar. Some (a lot) of regression is in order, but if he ever figures it out at the plate he’s going to be a monster. Like, prime Carlos Gomez-level good.
-Matt Chapman is amazing
-Dexter Fowler has had a bad adjustment to right field
-Alex Bregman and George Springer look like they’ve had a rough time so far.
Maybe Cutch wasnt so terrible in CF after all?! He was the 1st name I looked for after reading the intro and he benefits as expected.
The 2016 chart is titled the same the 2015 chart. It certainly looks good to see some adjustment so it makes more sense.
That should now be fixed.
Would you consider making both the old and new values available to us?
GMs should avoid paying for players who’s supposed value comes from their measured defense, and they should hunt for players who’s perceived lack of value comes from the same. Look how much better Matt Kemp and how much worse Alex Gordon just got.
Derek Jeter apparently gained several career WAR because all of his recent extremely poor defensive seasons turned into more typically poor seasons.
He gained 0.9 WAR. Went from 71.8 to 72.7
Of course, that only covered 2 years of his career.
Damn shame we don’t have info from before 2012.
One of the most heavily affected players is Matt Kemp going from awful to merely below average, which is pretty incredible, basically in every single year of his career.
More like “legendarily bad” to “awful”.
Brandon Inge showing up on the 2012 list twice seems odd. I know he was traded mid-season, but how his defense could be adjusted to such extremities in opposite directions in just half a season total and with less than a dozen games with Detroit is strange.
I’ll take a look at that one. Those numbers seem particularly weird.
I assume the reason for not backdating beyond 2012 is that the hang time data is not available? Is it possible to backdate the extreme performance “dampening” piece? If we think it’s more accurate with those outlier numbers “dampened” it seems like that should be done for all players. I’m curious the effect that could have on debates over borderline HoF candidacies. One that comes to mind is Bernie Williams, whose career WAR is really held down by some truly awful UZR scores in the 2000s.
As a big Chase Utley fan, not happy to see that he’s getting dinged now.
I understand it’s more accurate (and I prefer accuracy); I’m just sad that the more accurate take isn’t as kind to him.
Using the wayback machine to compare his WAR before and after the UZR update, he’s lost 1.5 WAR off his career value. He’s a pretty borderline case for the hall of fame, and that 1.5 WAR might be the difference between someone voting for him and someone passing on him.
That is, of course, assuming a voter uses fWAR to calibrate their opinions on players.
RIP Kevin Pillar
Yeah, it’s pretty sad. But still! 2015 to present, Pillar ranking as MLB’s 26th most valuable outfielder (by the new fWAR) is better than solid. He drops 8 spots from yesterday’s insane ranking of 18 but as much as I love Pillar (who doesn’t?) 26th best outfielder feels more plausible to me than 18th.
This is really interesting.
And a good reminder that defense stats are still imperfect.
Random fluctuation is one thing, but the fact that Kemp appears on four of the five years coupled with other repeated names implies that a systematic bias existed.
Would be really interested to see how the standard deviation of the range has changed.
Also another thing I noticed is that the number of big changes decrease from 2012 to 2016.
This could be pure chance, but my guess is that there is more to it.
Perhaps statcast helped with better hit type designations in 2016?
It’s hard to take any of this seriously when we don’t know what the formulas are. I’d rather fWar use something that isn’t a total black box for defensive calculations. Every other number can easily be calculated and verified, but UZR we are supposed to just believe the methodology is correct and the calculation doesn’t have any errors.
There aren’t really any public defensive metrics that aren’t a bit of a black box. Most of the other metrics in WAR are simple formulas, where fielding metrics are by nature a little more complex than that. However, there is an incredibly detailed UZR primer here:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/
I’ll see if we can get it updated to include some of the more recent changes, though much of what is there still holds true.
Agreed, especially after such a massive change.
This adjustment really hurts Juan Lagares’s value. Definitely vindicates the Mets for not playing him as much. But it also seems much more in tune with actually watching guys play.
This is a pretty dramatic change, and I think we should remember this going forward when evaluating players based on defense. I wonder if the conversation around Heyward would have gone differently had people used these updated metrics.
Can you expand on the regression system you used to address “noise in the data”? Are you just smoothing everything that exceeds a certain number of deviations from the mean? Based on the limited explanation (and the overwhelming number of changes made to the UZR’s of all extreme players, like Pillar, Matt Kemp, etc…) it sounds like the data is being unnecessarily distorted.
I prefer to present outliers for what they are and let people make their own interpretations. Assuming all extremes are statistically non-significant seems like a bad idea. Some extreme UZRs are due to luck, but others are due to the players being extreme players.
I would definitely like to read more about this from MGL if possible. What most surprises me is that this level of regression wasn’t already taking place.
Oh man the Heyward contract just got even worse….
If I read this correctly, you’re punishing all extreme performers based on an assumption that some/most of those are outliers. But what if players with extreme performances are completely justified i.e. Keirmaier, Lagares, Arenado, etc.?
Even if you are now more accurately grading some players, aren’t there going to now be some players whose defense isn’t “extreme enough”
So Syzmbroski made a 25 million dollar mistake on Matt Kemp’s value why won’t you fire him