If life reveals anything, it’s that the best way to contend with the past isn’t to process it calmly and deliberately but rather to push it far away and pretend it never existed and hope blindly that the future will somehow facilitate better outcomes.
Today, FanGraphs is happy to participate in this very healthy and doctor-approved process by presenting the 2019 Steamer projections. The work of Jared Cross, Steamer represents the first opportunity of the offseason to peer into the gauzy mists of the future. The prorated version of the forecasts (known as Steamer 600) is useful, too, as a sort of quick estimate of true talent.
What does one find in the numbers? That Mike Trout remains strong in the baseball department, for one. And that free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are likely to produce very similar age-26 campaigns. And that, whatever happens next week, Boston left-hander Chris Sale is the AL Cy Young favorite for 2019.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
lol Vlad as 14th best player in baseball in 2019. Go Jays!
Not ready yet.
That extra year of control would annoy me too if I wasn’t a Jays fan.
6th best if you look at Steamer600, he’s only that far down because he’s projected for 100 less PA than everyone else (service time…)
It seems more fair to call him the 6th best.
And considering he’s 19 and hasn’t played a game at the majors, there has to be a ton of uncertainty in that projection. I’d really love to see something like the 10%/90% probabilities for him.
It REALLY likes rookies as far as average goes – VG2 is your league leader, but also Daza (4), Eloy (8), Astudillo (9), Hampson (10), Fuentes (12), etc., get lots of love.