With the surprise news that the 2020 season will feature expanded playoffs, we’ve been scrambling all afternoon to get our playoff odds updated:
And we did it! Or, at least we think we did it, based on the following reporting earlier in the day, which gave us something of a head start:
Seeds 1-3 will go to the division winners based on record. Seeds 4-6 will go to the runners-up based on record. Seeds 7 and 8 will be based on record. Thus, there is a possibility the third-best division winner actually plays a worse team than the two best division winners. — Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 23, 2020
Seeds 1-3 will go to the division winners based on record.
Seeds 4-6 will go to the runners-up based on record.
Seeds 7 and 8 will be based on record.
Thus, there is a possibility the third-best division winner actually plays a worse team than the two best division winners.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 23, 2020
The updates we made include:
The big takeaway here is that the very best teams see their World Series odds decrease somewhat, and everyone else’s playoff odds increase significantly. Unless you’re the Orioles.
We just received some clarity about the tiebreaker rules, but haven’t implemented them just yet. Right now, ties are broken randomly. We will include the tiebreaker rules in the near future, and expect the impact to be minimal.
If something looks off, please let us know!
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Legends.