2022 Playoff Odds Are Now Available!
The FanGraphs 2022 Playoff Odds, which take into account the new 12-team playoff structure, are now available on the site. With the new structure, we want to highlight the following columns:
- Win Div – The probability the team wins their division
- Clinch Bye – The probability that the team wins their division and is one of the top two seeds in their league, thus earning a Wild Card Series bye
- Clinch Wild Card – The probability the team qualifies for the playoffs through a Wild Card berth
- Make Playoffs – The sum of Win Div + Clinch Wild Card, indicating the probability that the team qualifies for the playoff in any capacity
- Make LDS (Postseason section) – The probability the team wins the Wild Card Series or earns a bye.
Our playoff odds continue to use a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems with pro-rated playing time via our depth charts. We then use that projection to calculate BaseRuns for each team’s batters and pitchers, which are used as inputs in the Pythagorean expectation formula to get a team’s winning percentage. Each team’s winning percentage is then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of the full 162 game schedule, which is run 20,000 times. You can find more information about our playoff odds here.
Since play-in games have been eliminated and the exact playoff tiebreaker rules have yet to be announced, we’re using the existing playoff tiebreaker rules until there is further clarification. Even if the tiebreaker rules change, it won’t have much of an impact on any of the preseason projected playoff odds. We have also stopped generating the Tie Scenario report for the 2022 season.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Awesome – thanks David! Surprised but excited to see the Jays second in WS% behind the Dodgers. I’m sure the Yankees aren’t done spending, but hopes are high nevertheless.
The Blue Jays are absolutely loaded. Lots of big bats. Lots of good pitchers. Kikuchi is their #5 pitcher, which is where he should be, but it gives you a sense of their depth. They’re still in on Schwarber, maybe Freeman too. This is going to be a very, very good team.
Dave, what odds does the calculator give the Pirates to win the World Series? I have a bet with a buddy if they ever win the world series he’ll buy me a beer
Don’t think you’re getting that beer anytime soon, but it looks like they did win the WS in 3 of the 20k runs (for today’s run), so that’s 0.015%.
I’m really fascinated by the AL West playoff odds, where the Angels are projected with significantly higher playoff odds than the Mariners despite being projected to win something like 13 fewer games.
Does anyone know what accounts for this gap?
We have the Angels projected to win 2 more games than the Mariners, where are you seeing 13 fewer wins? I don’t think there’s any case where the playoff odds could be higher for a team with 13 fewer wins.
D’oh. I had too many tabs opened and was looking at last year’s actual win totals haha. Extremely embarrassing. Sorry about that!
Orioles at 0.2% to make the playoffs! So you’re saying there’s a chance!
Cleveland fans should be irate that the Twins project better than them. My goodness.
And somehow the Mets are still behind the Braves. That’s rough. Probably a statement about how good the Braves are.
The AL Central as a whole looks… odd in these projections. The third place team in 2021 added Javy Baez and dropped to fifth?
At least in betting markets, there is no real discernable difference between second and fifth…every non-White Sox team is bunched between like 74 and 77.5 projected wins. So basically any of those four teams is fairly likely to land in any of those four slots.
Call me a Cubs homer, but I don’t think that the Cubbies will finish behind the Reds this year for a couple reasons:
-I don’t think the Reds are done blowing it up
-The Cubs’ offense was not that bad post-trades and a majority of those individuals are back. I also think there will a few more marginal upgrades and wouldn’t be surprised if they went big for someone if it fits the competitive window. Don’t think this will happen, but it could!
-The Cubs’ pitching was absolutely dreadful post-trades and I don’t think they’ll be done adding to both the rotation and bullpen. Miley and Stroman are excellent additions – no more Zach Davies starts as a result. They gave that guy and the shell of Jake Arrieta 52 starts!
How is it that on a pure WAR projection of Yankees lineup they 8 wins ahead of the Jays but the Playoff Odds are showing the Jays a couple games ahead of the Yanks. Would have thought the only difference would have been schedule, but these two teams would have a nearly identical schedule you would think
Was also wondering this. @Dave, can you explain this huge discrepancy?
You can do the same with with WAR projections and we used to do that many years ago, but the consensus at the time was that BaseRuns was a better way to answer the very specific question of “how many runs will this team score”.
WAR is going to be more context neutral than BaseRuns, which will account for some sequencing. Also, BaseRuns does not rely on a fielding projection and uses (in this case), projected pitcher result metrics to determine total runs allowed by a team.
This is pretty helpful for what BaseRuns does: https://library.fangraphs.com/features/baseruns/
Thanks!
ok thanks. Thats a bit disappointing that you dont use fielding projections for the pitchers runs against. Do you assume a league average fielding behind the pitcheners in their Base Runs calc?
The pitchers counting / rate projections take into account team defense, so they are already included. There’s no need to further adjust for team defense.
Can’t believe the giants are just 50% to make the playoffs after a 107 win season
Losing the best catcher in baseball certainly stings. But yeah, I’m with you, it is a bit odd.
They lost Gausman and Bryant as well as Posey, and they won 107 games (with underlying stats of a 100 win team, which is what the projections care about) with *every player* on their roster beating their projection except for Mike Yazstremski
Some of those guys will retain those gains, but some won’t: it’s simply not reality that all players retain breakout performance into the next season.
They simply have very little to gain from players regressing to the mean and a ton to lose. In contrast, you can look at the Dodgers who have players like Cody Bellinger who significantly underperformed and from whom some sort of rebound will be projected.
When you hit a 95th percentile outcome, you’re not going to hold all those gains over to the next season, and this is especially true when you lose 3 of the best players on your team. I know Bryant was not on the team for the whole season, but he was with it for a substantial portion and went a long way towards closing the gap between their good fortune and their underlying talent.
Bryant + Posey + Gausman combine to project for over 9 wins this season. That is a big chunk to lose before you get into the question of how many players’ gains will regress to their previous levels (and especially since Posey was probably the player from whom the regression was least likely because he had the longest history of performing at that level in the first place!)
a correction: the giants’ expected wins and losses were 103-59, not 100.
I’m not sure whether the Astros being a clear playoff team and WS 3rd or 4th choice makes Correa more or less valuable than if they were a 50-50 playoff team or if they were a WS favorite. Probably depends on the playoff structure or maybe it doesn’t
Dbacks with an extra 18 wins this year…whoohoo.
And yet, that would make them the 4th worst team in the league….sigh
Oof, the Tigers still a bit farther away than I’d have hoped based on these. Hopefully all the young players show some growth.
waiting for Matt Chapman to the Jays Depth Charts…….
Never trust any oddsmaker who claims that a team has a 0.0% chance. That’s as patently ridiculous as a 100% chance.
What is the definition of Strength of Schedule?