2022 Playoff Odds Are Now Available!

The FanGraphs 2022 Playoff Odds, which take into account the new 12-team playoff structure, are now available on the site. With the new structure, we want to highlight the following columns:

  • Win Div – The probability the team wins their division
  • Clinch Bye – The probability that the team wins their division and is one of the top two seeds in their league, thus earning a Wild Card Series bye
  • Clinch Wild Card – The probability the team qualifies for the playoffs through a Wild Card berth
  • Make Playoffs – The sum of Win Div + Clinch Wild Card, indicating the probability that the team qualifies for the playoff in any capacity
  • Make LDS (Postseason section) – The probability the team wins the Wild Card Series or earns a bye.

Our playoff odds continue to use a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems with pro-rated playing time via our depth charts. We then use that projection to calculate BaseRuns for each team’s batters and pitchers, which are used as inputs in the Pythagorean expectation formula to get a team’s winning percentage. Each team’s winning percentage is then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of the full 162 game schedule, which is run 20,000 times. You can find more information about our playoff odds here.

Since play-in games have been eliminated and the exact playoff tiebreaker rules have yet to be announced, we’re using the existing playoff tiebreaker rules until there is further clarification. Even if the tiebreaker rules change, it won’t have much of an impact on any of the preseason projected playoff odds. We have also stopped generating the Tie Scenario report for the 2022 season.

David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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Jason Bmember
10 months ago

Awesome – thanks David! Surprised but excited to see the Jays second in WS% behind the Dodgers. I’m sure the Yankees aren’t done spending, but hopes are high nevertheless.

Last edited 10 months ago by Jason B
10 months ago
Reply to  Jason B

The Blue Jays are absolutely loaded. Lots of big bats. Lots of good pitchers. Kikuchi is their #5 pitcher, which is where he should be, but it gives you a sense of their depth. They’re still in on Schwarber, maybe Freeman too. This is going to be a very, very good team.