A Fun Brandon Moss Comparison
Let’s play a fun little game. Below are the 2012-2014 performances of two players. One of them was just traded for Joey Wendle, because the A’s didn’t want to pay him $7 million via arbitration next year. The other one is due $107 million over the next five years, and the Dodgers are asking for several of another team’s best young players in a trade.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moss | 1,381 | 10% | 28% | 0.249 | 0.305 |
| Matt Kemp | 1,338 | 9% | 24% | 0.205 | 0.350 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Brandon Moss | 0.254 | 0.340 | 0.504 | 0.364 | 135 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.288 | 0.349 | 0.493 | 0.362 | 134 |
Of course, this isn’t the whole story with either player. Kemp was an absolute monster in the second half, playing at a very high level, while Moss struggled with a hip problem that sapped all of his power. Moss is a year older. Moss is a lefty who probably needs to be platooned, while Kemp is right-handed and can play everyday. Kemp is a good athlete with obvious physical skills, while Moss has been outperforming scouting expectations with every season of success.
Like with my Chase Headley/Jacoby Ellsbury comparison this morning, I’m not suggesting that Moss is Kemp’s equal going forward, or that their market values should be the same. However, I will suggest that maybe the marginal difference between them isn’t actually that large, especially if the surgery Moss had on his hip doesn’t continue to hinder him going forward.
Steamer forecasts a 128 wRC+ and +2.3 WAR per 600 PAs for Kemp versus a 121 wRC+ and +1.9 WAR per 600 PAs for Moss. Toss in the risk associated with Moss’ hip problems, and maybe you think the gap is even a little bit bigger than that. And perhaps Kemp’s handedness is worth a premium, given how much more teams are paying for right-handed power than their left-handed equivalents.
But man, it’s hard to not like the Indians picking up Moss for a song when you see what the asking price for Matt Kemp is.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
That was fun!
Even I let that one go.
Man, I’m hating the Athletics offseason.
Said zero Mariners fans today.
I could squint my eyes and possibly think the Samardzija and Donaldson trades weren’t too bad, although I think neither of them were great for Oakland. But I honestly can’t understand this one from Oakland’s perspective.
“Steamer forecasts a 128 wRC+ and +2.3 WAR per 600 PAs for Kemp versus a 121 wRC+ and +1.9 WAR per 600 PAs for Moss”
Here’s one to add to the mix: Steamer forecasts a 119 wRC+ and +1.3 WAR per 600 PAs for Billy Butler.
The perception is that Moss needs to be benched vs lefties. Career wRC+ vs L: 101. Butler, career wRC+ vs righties”: 108. A spread, obviously, but not an enormous one when you consider (1) the fact that the projections anticipate Moss’s future being better than his past while the opposite is true for Butler (implying that the spread may narrow) and (2) Given the mix of MLB pitcher handedness you’d obviously rather have a lefty with a platoon issue.
Whatever liability you think Moss may be on the basepaths, Butler is worse. And I don’t know that you can argue for Butler as materially superior defensively.
OAK now on the hook for 3 x $10 for their Country Breakfast while Moss is ~$7M this year, a likely raise in ’16, and then I believe you’re off the hook.
Unless I am missing something about Joey Wendle, or Beane is knowingly selling Moss when his hip is permanently ruined … I don’t get the picture here.
Butler is almost three years younger than Moss.
Understood (and incorporated into the projections).
I am just not sure what makes it likely that 29-30yr old Butler will be more valuable than 31-32yr old Moss.
All of them make more sense than the Butler signing, in my opinion. The Samardzjia trade allowed them to go for it last year. It didn’t work but was worth the risk. This trade and the Donaldson trade allowed them to get Lawrie — who has upside, pitchers who could provide value this year, and prospects who play premium positions.
It’s hard to reconcile the Butler signing with those other moves. People may not like each of them individually, but collectively there’s a logic to them. I can’t explain signing Butler to a 3 year deal.
The 1b/DH types aren’t getting much. Lind’s a reasonable comparison to Moss, he netted very little.
At least Lind drew a ML pitcher in trade. Wendle isn’t even really a prospect.
I dunno–Billy Butler seemed to draw pretty well.
It’s almost impossible for the A’s to not say they are in full rebuild mode now.
The “almost” is Billy Butler.
You really shouldn’t compare the rate stats of a heavily platooned player with those of an everyday player…
No, you shouldn’t.
Except that Brandon Moss hasn’t been heavily platooned. Dave says that Moss is “a lefty who probably SHOULD be platooned,” not one who actually has been platooned. Moss has played in nearly 300 games in the last 2 seasons and has nearly 1100 plate appearances.
FWIW – Dave was writing similar pieces about Kemp before his monster season.
What about a Billy Butler to Brandon Moss comparison?
In Beane We Trust, but I don’t understand these moves at all. But to be fair, if this is the asking price for Moss, then I feel like a lot of GMs missed the bus. The dude is a good hitter who apparently costs nothing to acquire (except arbitration money for the next two years). Good move for Cleveland, yet another question mark for the A’s.
I keep seeing comments that teams are paying a premium for right-handed power this offseason, but I haven’t read anything summarizing and/or quantifying this. I’d really like to see some data supporting this assertion.
Did 4/57 for Nelson Cruz and 4/68 for Victor Martinez not make that obvious?
3/$30-whatever for Michael Cuddyer and 3/$30 for Billy Butler as well.
No talk about Wendle yet. Is he more than meets the eye? When a relative unknown prospect is traded straight-up for a solid major leaguer, should we reevaluate the prospect? I’m remembering when Carlos Santana was traded for Casey Blake a few years back.
Last season was something of a lost year for Wendle, he had a poor start to the year, and just when he got going he had the injury. After 2013 he looked like he could be something like Kipnis, a bat-first infielder with some power, but his defense is supposed to be even more iffy than Kipnis’. He was behind a lot of guys in Cleveland’s system.
I was on to Wendle near the end of last year. He projects really well for me because of his power-to-contact ratios in the minors. On top of that, he does appear to be an legitimate infielder. That combination is hard to find.
He seems polished and closer to major-league-ready than his career path implies. I would not at all be surprised to see him hitting in Oakland (a la 2013 Stephen Vogt) in the playoffs next year.
The way things are going thus far in the offseason, I think would be surprised to see anyone hitting in Oakland in the playoffs next year
Well their offseason isn’t over yet. They are still rumored to trade Samardzija away, so let’s see what he brings back. And they just unloaded ~$3.5M of salary trading Moss.
So they may be able to spend *a little* more.
Yeah it’s not like Kemp had 3 different injuries in 12 and 13 he came back from and tried playing through. That’s not worth a mention.
*is for Matt Kemp.
I can’t help but comparing the returns on Moss and Saunders, and viewing them as a counterweight to the idea that the cost of corner players is exploding.
While three years is a common sample size, it distorts this comparison quite a bit given that Moss was a lot better in 2012 than 2013, and then a lot better in 2013 than 2014. Using a time-weighted sample would make Kemp and Moss appear not so similar.