A Most Current Statistical Report for the Arizona Fall League
As he did last week, the author has published below a statistical report for the Arizona Fall League — less because such reports are of great utility to prospect analysis, and more because, for those of us currently not residing in the Greater Phoenix area, one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league is by dwelling for too long on very small statistical samples.
What follows is an example of such a statistical report for this year’s iteration for the AFL about three weeks into the season.
SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.
| # | Player | Team | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Olson | Athletics | 20 | 39 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 3.7% | 14.3% | 17.2% | 143 |
| 2 | Patrick Kivlehan | Mariners | 24 | 60 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 3.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 141 |
| 3 | Austin Nola | Marlins | 24 | 39 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 1.3% | 15.2% | 8.8% | 134 |
| 4 | Daniel Robertson | Athletics | 20 | 45 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1.9% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 133 |
| 5 | Peter O’Brien | D-backs | 23 | 58 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 2.9% | 16.1% | 20.7% | 132 |
| 6 | Tyler Austin | Yankees | 22 | 54 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 2.4% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 122 |
| 7 | Daniel Gamache | Pirates | 23 | 44 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 1.9% | 13.9% | 17.1% | 120 |
| 8 | Matt Reynolds | Mets | 23 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3.1% | 12.3% | 22.1% | 119 |
| 9 | D.J. Peterson | Mariners | 22 | 51 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1.8% | 13.3% | 16.4% | 119 |
| 10 | Jace Peterson | Padres | 24 | 49 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 1.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 117 |
SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT leaderboard for AFL pitchers who’ve recorded at least one start. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| # | Player | Team | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Zimmer | Royals | 22 | 3 | 3 | 9.2 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 31.4% | 10.4% | 72 |
| 2 | Robbie Ray | Tigers | 22 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 27.7% | 10.5% | 82 |
| 3 | Sean Nolin | Blue Jays | 24 | 4 | 4 | 8.1 | 41 | 13 | 4 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 83 |
| 4 | Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 21 | 2 | 2 | 9.0 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 84 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | 20 | 4 | 4 | 9.2 | 42 | 13 | 6 | 26.8% | 11.3% | 87 |
| 6 | Anthony DeSclafani | Marlins | 24 | 3 | 3 | 12.0 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 23.6% | 8.2% | 87 |
| 7 | Joely Rodriguez | Pirates | 22 | 4 | 4 | 13.1 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 87 |
| 8 | Tyrell Jenkins | Cardinals | 21 | 3 | 3 | 13.1 | 53 | 12 | 3 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 92 |
| 9 | Mark Appel | Astros | 22 | 4 | 4 | 17.0 | 64 | 14 | 4 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 93 |
| 10 | Zach Davies | Orioles | 21 | 4 | 4 | 12.2 | 55 | 14 | 8 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 94 |
Notes and Observations
• Oakland first-base prospect Matt Olson finished fourth among all minor leaguers during the regular season with 37 home runs — behind only celebrated pair Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo, plus also the notably older Jake Fox. That the feat was accomplished in a Cal League park with 120 home-run park factor for left-handed batters oughtn’t be ignored, of course. That Olson has exhibited similar power in Arizona, however — while also producing similar walk and strikeout rates — isn’t not promising.
• A teammate of Olson’s this year at High-A Stockton, what 20-year-old Daniel Robertson lacks in terms of the former’s offensive talent, he probably more than compensates for with defensive skills. In addition to recording sound walk and strikeout rates (11.2% and 14.6%, respectively), Robertson appeared at shortstop in 123 of Stockton’s 140 games. He’s produced the third-lowest expected strikeout rate among AFL batters, behind only Miami’s Austin Nola (8.8%) and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (10.0%).
• A new addition to the AFL pitching leaderboard since last week’s iteration of same is right-handed Baltimore prospect Zach Davies. A 26th-round selection in 2011 signed to an over-slot bonus ($575K), Davies produced strikeout and walk rates of 23.4% and 6.9%, respectively, this season in 110.0 innings with Double-A Bowie. According both to the Prospect Handbook and also the internet, Davies features less than premium arm speed but a pretty excellent changeup.
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How is Greg Bird not making the hitters’ list?
It’s on account of his walks and strikeouts, looks like: three of the former, 16 of the latter. Those rates stabilize more quickly than home runs (of which he’s hit five). An impressive AFL for him so far, just one that’s dependent on a figure that become reliable only in larger samples.
Totally fair. Given the rest of his 2014 minor league numbers, I’d say the AFL walk rate is the aberration.