A Most Current Statistical Report for the Arizona Fall League

As he did last week, the author has published below a statistical report for the Arizona Fall League — less because such reports are of great utility to prospect analysis, and more because, for those of us currently not residing in the Greater Phoenix area, one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league is by dwelling for too long on very small statistical samples.

What follows is an example of such a statistical report for this year’s iteration for the AFL about three weeks into the season.

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SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

# Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
1 Matt Olson Athletics 20 39 4 9 6 3.7% 14.3% 17.2% 143
2 Patrick Kivlehan Mariners 24 60 4 7 7 3.5% 10.9% 11.7% 141
3 Austin Nola Marlins 24 39 0 10 1 1.3% 15.2% 8.8% 134
4 Daniel Robertson Athletics 20 45 1 9 3 1.9% 13.8% 10.1% 133
5 Peter O’Brien D-backs 23 58 3 13 12 2.9% 16.1% 20.7% 132
6 Tyler Austin Yankees 22 54 2 7 8 2.4% 11.4% 15.4% 122
7 Daniel Gamache Pirates 23 44 1 9 7 1.9% 13.9% 17.1% 120
8 Matt Reynolds Mets 23 44 3 7 10 3.1% 12.3% 22.1% 119
9 D.J. Peterson Mariners 22 51 1 9 8 1.8% 13.3% 16.4% 119
10 Jace Peterson Padres 24 49 0 6 4 1.2% 11.0% 10.4% 117

SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT leaderboard for AFL pitchers who’ve recorded at least one start. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

# Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
1 Kyle Zimmer Royals 22 3 3 9.2 36 15 4 31.4% 10.4% 72
2 Robbie Ray Tigers 22 3 3 9.0 34 12 4 27.7% 10.5% 82
3 Sean Nolin Blue Jays 24 4 4 8.1 41 13 4 27.1% 10.0% 83
4 Taijuan Walker Mariners 21 2 2 9.0 37 11 2 25.4% 9.0% 84
5 Tyler Glasnow Pirates 20 4 4 9.2 42 13 6 26.8% 11.3% 87
6 Anthony DeSclafani Marlins 24 3 3 12.0 48 12 2 23.6% 8.2% 87
7 Joely Rodriguez Pirates 22 4 4 13.1 52 13 3 23.8% 8.6% 87
8 Tyrell Jenkins Cardinals 21 3 3 13.1 53 12 3 22.1% 8.6% 92
9 Mark Appel Astros 22 4 4 17.0 64 14 4 21.8% 8.5% 93
10 Zach Davies Orioles 21 4 4 12.2 55 14 8 24.4% 11.8% 94

Notes and Observations
• Oakland first-base prospect Matt Olson finished fourth among all minor leaguers during the regular season with 37 home runs — behind only celebrated pair Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo, plus also the notably older Jake Fox. That the feat was accomplished in a Cal League park with 120 home-run park factor for left-handed batters oughtn’t be ignored, of course. That Olson has exhibited similar power in Arizona, however — while also producing similar walk and strikeout rates — isn’t not promising.

• A teammate of Olson’s this year at High-A Stockton, what 20-year-old Daniel Robertson lacks in terms of the former’s offensive talent, he probably more than compensates for with defensive skills. In addition to recording sound walk and strikeout rates (11.2% and 14.6%, respectively), Robertson appeared at shortstop in 123 of Stockton’s 140 games. He’s produced the third-lowest expected strikeout rate among AFL batters, behind only Miami’s Austin Nola (8.8%) and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (10.0%).

• A new addition to the AFL pitching leaderboard since last week’s iteration of same is right-handed Baltimore prospect Zach Davies. A 26th-round selection in 2011 signed to an over-slot bonus ($575K), Davies produced strikeout and walk rates of 23.4% and 6.9%, respectively, this season in 110.0 innings with Double-A Bowie. According both to the Prospect Handbook and also the internet, Davies features less than premium arm speed but a pretty excellent changeup.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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e
9 years ago

How is Greg Bird not making the hitters’ list?

e
9 years ago

Totally fair. Given the rest of his 2014 minor league numbers, I’d say the AFL walk rate is the aberration.