A Reason For Pessimism About Jacob Turner
According to Keith Law, the Cubs have acquired Jacob Turner from the Marlins for “a couple of minor leaguers”. Turner was a pretty high profile prospect a few years ago, is just 23, and this acquisition falls in line with the Cubs buying low on young pitching and seeing what sticks. Assuming the two minor leaguers have minimal value, this is probably a decent enough move by the Cubs, because young arms sometimes turn into Jake Arrieta.
But before we throw the Cubs a parade for acquiring Turner, let’s maybe point out something of importance: the current version of Jacob Turner does not belong in a Major League rotation, and barring some dramatic improvement from either his change-up or his curveball, he profiles best as a middle reliever.
Since the start of the 2011 season, 149 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings against left-handed batters. By K%-BB%, Turner ranks 147th. Here are his peers in controlling the strike zone against lefties.
| Name | K% | BB% | K-BB% | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Marquis | 12% | 13% | -1% | 5.26 |
| Luis Mendoza | 11% | 11% | 1% | 4.88 |
| Jacob Turner | 12% | 11% | 1% | 4.82 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 12% | 11% | 1% | 4.82 |
| Jake Westbrook | 10% | 8% | 2% | 4.68 |
Marquis is a replacement level scrub at the end of his career. Mendoza is a swing guy who makes spot starts when someone is hurt. Westbrook is out of baseball. The only guy in this mix who has had any real value of late is Chacin, who has succeed by limiting BABIP and HR/FB ratio while pitching in Colorado. Turner hasn’t shown the same ability to limit hard contact, and his results have actually been worse than his also-bad peripherals.
Yes, Turner is 23, and yes, there’s plenty of time for him to live up to the promise he showed as a minor leaguer. Maybe the change-up will get better and he’ll have a real weapon against left-handers someday. He doesn’t right now, though, and until he does, he’s going to project as a reliever, and not even the kind of reliever you can trust with full-inning, high-leverage appearances.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Had to go all the way back to 2011 to get to the conclusion you wanted to reach?
Needs more $/WAR massaging.
Splits require big samples, so the best thing to do when looking at data vs handedness is grab as much as you can. But, hey, since you want smaller sample split data, Turner’s 2014 K%-BB% against LHBs? -2.0%. This list actually makes him look better than if I had just used 2014 data.
But, hey, feel free to live your life trying to be snarky and clever. Good luck with that.
My only issue with the article is the fact that, well, does anyone need to be told to be pessimistic about a guy with mediocre peripherals who was DFA’d? This wasn’t a high profile move, as you said, it was buy low and hope you can fix something. There just doesn’t seem to be a reason to bother talking about why this move might be bad because it was essentially a 0 risk move. The Cubs have up 2 A ball relievers. The article just feels… Pointless.
Doogolas, if that’s your issue with the article then you shouldn’t be reading instagraphs. The whole point of creating instagraphs is for articles like this. From the original instagraphs article:
(Some) “things are worth pointing out, but not worth writing eight paragraphs about, so they’ve generally ended up on the cutting room floor….Essentially, this will be the place for things that are interesting enough to note but aren’t full articles, though maybe eventually they’ll turn into one. Or maybe not.”
Viva, the difference is I don’t think what he said IS worth pointing out. It’s very obvious why people DO NOT like Turner. Writing something else is much more worthwhile. I understand the purpose of instagraphs.
It would’ve been more interesting to dig into what the Cubs might think they can fix than to simply toss his splits up and say, “he’s been bad.” Maybe do a comparison between Turner and Arrieta at the time the Cubs acquired him and then predict what you might expect if they’re able to help him make the same adjustments. I dunno, just anything more insightful than, “news flash: recently DFA’d pitcher has not been pitching well.”
Oh, being snarky and clever is good fun. But being snarky and wrong is just pathetic.
I was going to try living my life by putting together an interesting stats site and convincing people that this made my shallow analysis interesting, but someone beat me to it.
I have to agree. Fangraphs is awesome. Dave Cameron sucks.
Horatio Villanueva (I can only assume that’s your name), it seems like a smart business decision to go on a website, deride the main writer and editor, and then link to whatever product you’re promoting. I bet that will send your sales through the roof.
So you’ve settled for being an asshole in the comments section.
All the great minds of the western world started out as assholes in the comments section.
Dave, imo, no need for the ad hominem shot at how someone who disagrees with you “lives [their] life.”
An interwebs poster disagreed with your use of data. No need for the passive-aggressive fake “good luck” E-taunting, etc.
Does he compare to Maurer, who also does not belong in a MLB rotation due to his lack of pitch that can get out LH hitters? But as a reliever who can max out his fastball and be matched up against righties, he has done alright.
Or maybe he starts throwing a cutter like Arrieta did.
It sure seems like Straily, Doubront, Wood, Jackson, and now Turner have to add up to SOMETHING. Famous last words, I suppose.
this is the thing, and frankly i expect some of his troubles are the result of experimenting with ways to develop a third pitch. his curveball%, twoseamer% and changeup% have moved around a lot.
his curveball is his best pitch, and so it makes sense that he’d struggle with LHB lacking a third pitch. maybe that does mean ‘middle reliever’ in the end.
but his two-seamer is generating tons of groundballs, and he still does have a wonderful breaking pitch. if they find him a third pitch, at 23 he has a live arm and some plus stuff. this is a guy who has started in the majors as a kid with a career xFIP- of 116.
Can 100 innings spread over three seasons really be that informative? Doesn’t the average starter have about 100 IP in one season against lefties?
Mendoza isn’t a swing guy making spot starts, he’s a full time starting pitcher.
Perhaps I should clarify that those games he’s starting are in Japan though.
Didn’t Jake Arrieta have similar issues vs lefties?
2013 30/25 K/BB vs LHH
2011 54/42 K/BB vs LHH
Dave, Turner’s CH against lefties looks troubling this year. I agree that he needs to have a strong CH to be successful as a starting pitcher. Against Turner this year, LH hitters have a .300 ISO off of his CH in 94 pitches in 2014 and a .136 ISO off of his CH in 90 pitches in 2013. This looks bad. I, however, am curious on whether or not .ISO off of this pitch is reflective of the pitch’s effectiveness (i.e., is his CH as bad as it appears to be from surface level stats?)
We know, thanks to Eno and Jeff, that 40% of pitchers from 2011-2013 have swinging strike rates of less than 11.9%. This year, Turner’s CH has produced a swinging strike rate of 11.3%. And in addition, his CH has produced 58.3% grounders, which is 25% higher than the average pitcher who throws a CH. Based on this criteria, his CH isn’t as bad as you make it out to be when claiming he needs a “dramatic improvement.”
Back to the .300 ISO from LH hitters when throwing a CH…
The reason that the .ISO is so high off of this pitch is not because of a lack of stuff, but because of a few grooved pitches. Most of the time, Turner has shown the ability to locate, which has resulted in a great GB% and a respectable swstrike%. This is the resulting .ISO illustrated by his zone profile.
http://s29.postimg.org/jz44s26on/Screen_Shot_2014_08_08_at_12_36_26_PM.png
The XBH on the lower right portion of the plate was a result of a GB. Not surprisingly, ISO is highest right down the middle.
I’m not convinced his CH is bad. I’m not convinced he needs to improve the pitch dramatically. He has four pitches that should result in positive results (i.e., 4seam, sinker, change, slider).
I’m okay with the move. Turner is younger than both the guys the Cubs gave up. Hopefully it’ll work out for both sides.
Jake Arrieta’s career prior to the 2014 season:
6.9 K/9
4.0 BB/9
1.2 HR/9
-10.4 wFB
-7.6 wSL
-9.1 wCH
Age 27
2.5 WAR over 409.2 IP, or 1.2 WAR per 200 IP.
+very poor K:BB ratios vs lefties
Jacob Turner’s career prior to Cub trade
6.0 K/9
3.3 BB/9
1.1 HR/9
-0.6 wFB
-13.3 wSL
-3.9 wCH
Age 23
0.9 WAR over 264 IP, or 0.7 WAR per 200 IP.
+ very poor K:BB ratios vs lefties
Obviously, the Cubs did a great job turning Arrieta around and had great success aided a bit by some good luck. The mere fact that Turner looks solid in comparison to Arrieta prior to this season says little.
Even so, it’s obvious that Turner is very much a work in progress. PitchF/X has Turner recently switching to a 2-seamer that he throws just as hard as his 4-seamer but with less overall success. Nevertheless, Turner’s switch from 4-seamer to 2-seamer has corresponded to his change from a HR-happy pitcher (over 1.4 HR/9) his first two seasons, to a pitcher who keeps the ball in the park (under 1.0 HR/9) the past two seasons. His swinging strike ratio during this switch has remained steady (~8.7%).
Whether Turner can pick up a cutter and trim him HRs down the way Arrieta has is obviously a bit of a long shot, but with Bosio doing good work there is a chance. PitchF/X already has Turner as throwing a cutter, but other sources seems to code this pitch as an ineffective slider. Looking at the speed (~85mph), the pitch would seem to be a slider, so Turner appears to be an obvious candidate to add the ~92MPH cutter that Arrieta is throwing.
His changeup doesn’t seem to be too terrible, so achieving moderate success for Turner against lefties probably comes down to making his fastball more effective and dropping the ineffective slider by either adding the cutter or making more use out of his less-ineffective curve ball.
Turner’s FIPs over the past two years (4.43 and 4.01) are respectable for a pitcher in his young 20s, and XFIP has probably underrated Turner a tad because the metric doesn’t fully credit the lower HRs that Turner has posted after switching to the 2-seamer.
This is a great move by the Cubs, a far, far better move than most of misguided “win now” gambles that get praised on this website lately. I wonder if corporate partners like ESPN and Fox News are simply demanding articles that are more convention and praise short-term thinking.
As a Cub fan, I love it. And quite the good choice for an Instgraphs article Dave. Do we know how much control (contract years) the Cubs get?
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait!!
I understand the data above shows he has trouble against lefties. And I know he still has growing/learning to do (cutter?). But he has a 3.98 sierra, a 3.93 x-fip and even a 4.01 fip. He’s actually pitched better than the likes of Matt Garza and JUSTIN VERLANDER! And others. Someone please tell me the downside of this trade? Good get Cubbies!
Oh, and Dooglas, don’t you think there will be many Intagraphs articles that don’t fit your particular needs or interests? The FG group probably discuss a large amount of article possibilities. Some get thrown on the floor. Some get written in this manner. C’mon man. Enjoy.
Thanks Dave C.
… This is absurd. One doesn’t need a reason to be pessimistic about Turner. He’s a former prospect who has not achieved any real results at the big league level. That’s it. The only thing that would be interesting about him is if there were a reason to be OPTIMISTIC. “Look. This guy hasn’t made it yet but here are some reasons why he might” is an article. “This guy hasn’t made it her and here’s why” could pretty much be written about every failed prospect. Ever. It’s not an article. Not an original thought. It’s … intuitive.
Up next: DC tells us why he’s pessimistic about his own chances at making the M’s.
Still a good write Dave. I see real optimism here. Of course where there is optimism I guess there could also be pessimism.