A Weird Thing About Outfield Sluggers
This morning, I started working on a post about why perhaps the Cardinals should think twice before pursuing Marcell Ozuna too heavily. The premise of the post was, essentially, that while the team could afford to ignore handedness when targeting Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna isn’t that same kind of impact hitter who crushes everyone, and the team should pause before adding yet another right-handed hitter to an already right-handed heavy line-up.
The Cardinals currently project to play two left-handed hitters (Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong) on a regular basis. Switch-hitting Dexter Fowler bats from the left side against RHPs, but that’s also his weaker side offensively. Even including Fowler, though, that’s three lefties and six righties, and with one of those three being a weak-hitting middle infielder. The Cardinals line-up just doesn’t have much in the way of left-handed power.
So the post was going to suggest that the Cardinals turn away from Ozuna, and instead go for a good left-handed outfield slugger instead. And then I realized that those guys don’t really exist in MLB right now.
Here are the left-handed hitting outfielders who have accumulated at least 1,200 PAs over the last three years, and their wRC+ over that span.
# | Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bryce Harper | 1762 | 0.297 | 0.417 | 0.561 | 156 |
2 | Charlie Blackmon | 2037 | 0.315 | 0.377 | 0.537 | 126 |
3 | Christian Yelich | 1866 | 0.294 | 0.371 | 0.449 | 123 |
4 | Adam Eaton | 1464 | 0.288 | 0.364 | 0.431 | 119 |
5 | Joc Pederson | 1342 | 0.228 | 0.347 | 0.450 | 119 |
6 | Josh Reddick | 1522 | 0.291 | 0.347 | 0.451 | 117 |
7 | Curtis Granderson | 1773 | 0.237 | 0.340 | 0.457 | 117 |
8 | David Peralta | 1230 | 0.293 | 0.352 | 0.479 | 116 |
9 | Dexter Fowler | 1294 | 0.251 | 0.360 | 0.439 | 115 |
10 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 1429 | 0.255 | 0.337 | 0.455 | 109 |
11 | Kole Calhoun | 1999 | 0.258 | 0.330 | 0.419 | 106 |
12 | Brett Gardner | 1928 | 0.266 | 0.351 | 0.404 | 106 |
13 | Jay Bruce | 1771 | 0.243 | 0.308 | 0.480 | 106 |
14 | Odubel Herrera | 1726 | 0.286 | 0.342 | 0.430 | 106 |
15 | Nori Aoki | 1201 | 0.284 | 0.347 | 0.391 | 105 |
16 | Melky Cabrera | 1459 | 0.288 | 0.333 | 0.426 | 104 |
17 | Kevin Kiermaier | 1357 | 0.263 | 0.321 | 0.428 | 104 |
18 | Carlos Gonzalez | 1746 | 0.276 | 0.336 | 0.491 | 103 |
19 | Denard Span | 1433 | 0.275 | 0.338 | 0.407 | 102 |
20 | Eddie Rosario | 1404 | 0.277 | 0.307 | 0.467 | 101 |
21 | Nick Markakis | 1986 | 0.281 | 0.357 | 0.389 | 100 |
22 | Ender Inciarte | 1842 | 0.301 | 0.347 | 0.403 | 100 |
22 left-handed OFs have posted a league-average or better batting line in regular playing time over the last three years, but Harper is the only one to crack the 130 wRC+ barrier, and only two others even get over 120 wRC+. A good chunk of the 22 guys on this list are no one’s idea of a slugger, as they got themselves to average offense with OBP, not SLG. No one is going to mistake Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Jackie Bradley Jr., Nori Aoki, Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, or Ender Inciarte for a slugger.
Of course, the 1,200 PA minimum does exclude a few guys who haven’t been regulars for three straight years, such as Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber, and Cody Bellinger. So it’s not like there are no lefty outfield sluggers in baseball. But those guys are also basically unavailable, so for the Cardinals purposes, that trio doesn’t really matter.
So, yeah, where did all the lefty slugging outfielders go? The shift reducing the effectiveness of left-handed pull players could explain part of this evolution, but it feels overly sudden to have the shift already have changed the game this significantly. More likely it’s just a cyclical thing. Baseball does this sometimes.
But that does mean that, for right now, the Cardinals might have to run a pretty unbalanced line-up. It’s either that or trade for Joc Pederson.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Not that the Reds are likely to deal with the Cardinals, but I’m sure Scott Schebler could be had. He had only ~850 PA the last 3 years, but hit 30 HR in 531 PA last year and fits the more traditional slugger profile than most of the guys on the list.