A Weird Thing About Outfield Sluggers
This morning, I started working on a post about why perhaps the Cardinals should think twice before pursuing Marcell Ozuna too heavily. The premise of the post was, essentially, that while the team could afford to ignore handedness when targeting Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna isn’t that same kind of impact hitter who crushes everyone, and the team should pause before adding yet another right-handed hitter to an already right-handed heavy line-up.
The Cardinals currently project to play two left-handed hitters (Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong) on a regular basis. Switch-hitting Dexter Fowler bats from the left side against RHPs, but that’s also his weaker side offensively. Even including Fowler, though, that’s three lefties and six righties, and with one of those three being a weak-hitting middle infielder. The Cardinals line-up just doesn’t have much in the way of left-handed power.
So the post was going to suggest that the Cardinals turn away from Ozuna, and instead go for a good left-handed outfield slugger instead. And then I realized that those guys don’t really exist in MLB right now.
Here are the left-handed hitting outfielders who have accumulated at least 1,200 PAs over the last three years, and their wRC+ over that span.
| # | Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper | 1762 | 0.297 | 0.417 | 0.561 | 156 |
| 2 | Charlie Blackmon | 2037 | 0.315 | 0.377 | 0.537 | 126 |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | 1866 | 0.294 | 0.371 | 0.449 | 123 |
| 4 | Adam Eaton | 1464 | 0.288 | 0.364 | 0.431 | 119 |
| 5 | Joc Pederson | 1342 | 0.228 | 0.347 | 0.450 | 119 |
| 6 | Josh Reddick | 1522 | 0.291 | 0.347 | 0.451 | 117 |
| 7 | Curtis Granderson | 1773 | 0.237 | 0.340 | 0.457 | 117 |
| 8 | David Peralta | 1230 | 0.293 | 0.352 | 0.479 | 116 |
| 9 | Dexter Fowler | 1294 | 0.251 | 0.360 | 0.439 | 115 |
| 10 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 1429 | 0.255 | 0.337 | 0.455 | 109 |
| 11 | Kole Calhoun | 1999 | 0.258 | 0.330 | 0.419 | 106 |
| 12 | Brett Gardner | 1928 | 0.266 | 0.351 | 0.404 | 106 |
| 13 | Jay Bruce | 1771 | 0.243 | 0.308 | 0.480 | 106 |
| 14 | Odubel Herrera | 1726 | 0.286 | 0.342 | 0.430 | 106 |
| 15 | Nori Aoki | 1201 | 0.284 | 0.347 | 0.391 | 105 |
| 16 | Melky Cabrera | 1459 | 0.288 | 0.333 | 0.426 | 104 |
| 17 | Kevin Kiermaier | 1357 | 0.263 | 0.321 | 0.428 | 104 |
| 18 | Carlos Gonzalez | 1746 | 0.276 | 0.336 | 0.491 | 103 |
| 19 | Denard Span | 1433 | 0.275 | 0.338 | 0.407 | 102 |
| 20 | Eddie Rosario | 1404 | 0.277 | 0.307 | 0.467 | 101 |
| 21 | Nick Markakis | 1986 | 0.281 | 0.357 | 0.389 | 100 |
| 22 | Ender Inciarte | 1842 | 0.301 | 0.347 | 0.403 | 100 |
22 left-handed OFs have posted a league-average or better batting line in regular playing time over the last three years, but Harper is the only one to crack the 130 wRC+ barrier, and only two others even get over 120 wRC+. A good chunk of the 22 guys on this list are no one’s idea of a slugger, as they got themselves to average offense with OBP, not SLG. No one is going to mistake Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Jackie Bradley Jr., Nori Aoki, Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, or Ender Inciarte for a slugger.
Of course, the 1,200 PA minimum does exclude a few guys who haven’t been regulars for three straight years, such as Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber, and Cody Bellinger. So it’s not like there are no lefty outfield sluggers in baseball. But those guys are also basically unavailable, so for the Cardinals purposes, that trio doesn’t really matter.
So, yeah, where did all the lefty slugging outfielders go? The shift reducing the effectiveness of left-handed pull players could explain part of this evolution, but it feels overly sudden to have the shift already have changed the game this significantly. More likely it’s just a cyclical thing. Baseball does this sometimes.
But that does mean that, for right now, the Cardinals might have to run a pretty unbalanced line-up. It’s either that or trade for Joc Pederson.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Not that the Reds are likely to deal with the Cardinals, but I’m sure Scott Schebler could be had. He had only ~850 PA the last 3 years, but hit 30 HR in 531 PA last year and fits the more traditional slugger profile than most of the guys on the list.
Or JBJ
“It’s either that or trade for Joc Pederson.”
Christian Yelich?
Don’t think he can play right field, and that’s where they’d put him. Great player though…
If Yelich is in fact a great CF who can’t play RF, he’d be the first such player in the history of baseball.
Are we counting Mike Trout as coming before or after Yelich? He would be even worse in RF, although for the same reason: His arm.
Anyway, for the record, I was referring to Yelich as a player, not as a fielder. Great hitter.
If Yelich’s arm is that problematic in RF, I’m pretty sure that Pham can play there.
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Yelich carries a negative DRS (-12) & UZR (-8.6) in 2,000+ career CF innings. He is 0 for 25 on remote plays in CF. In 5,500+ career OF innings (0 in RF) both systems rate his arm around -12. He also does not appear to have played a single minor league inning in RF.
For me he is ideal in LF & playable in CF, but he is a non candidate for RF based on his arm.
Thanks for saying what I meant but in a clearer way.
The problem is that while someone like Jay Bruce does fit the description of a “slugging outfielder”, he’s not really a big upgrade for the Cards because he’s so hot-and-cold.
There are slugging outfielders out there, just that Harper and Conforto are the only stars of the bunch (unless you count Bellinger as a LF instead of 1B).
I guess we can’t wish away the numbers above, but I think the time frame dings Bruce a bit. He had a knee injury in 2014 and by most indications didn’t have his lower body at full health in 2015. Last year his wRC+ was 118. I think he’s still a viable contributor on a 1 or 2 year deal.
Would Dickerson make any sense for them? If they’re already trading for Colome, Longoria, or Archer, obviously. Crushes RHP and has recently been much better in the OF.
Cards a classic sufferer of “mid-range talent” syndrome. They’ve got a guy who produces 2 WAR or close (or better) almost literally everywhere, but no one who kills it at 4 or 5 wins. As a result, it’s very expensive to upgrade and they can’t be picky. If handedness is a problem I bet they can trade Gyorko and replace him with Moose. May be their best route.
Maybe it doesn’t matter, but Tommy Pham has the 4th highest wRC+ among righthanded outfielders against righthanded pitching over the last 3 years, minimum 600 PAs.
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I think the push for defence and recognition of value, and baserunning is why the OF lefty sluggers are gone. They’ve been pushed to 1B/DH, or teams realized they weren’t necessarily as valuable as we thought they were (and are more expensive in arbitration/FA). Beyond that the focus on defence and value of baserunning meant those big sluggers who couldn’t defend or run were less valuable than guys who played D, were faster, and had closer to league average or slightly better than that level of offence. And even though that’s a drop off from say, a 100-110 wRC+ to 120-130 wRC+ or better, the overall value provided is higher, and teams pay them less in arb/FA since that skillset wasn’t paid to the same degree. Like, a 30 HR 2.5 WAR player would get paid more than a guy who produced via speed/defence.
That recognition of value, baserunning, defence, has probably had more to do with it than anything else.
While Ozuna might have had a career year last year, he was quite literally “the kind of impact hitter who crushes everyone.” He hit RHP’s better. He hit better in high leverage situations, and his lowest wRC+ in a month was 129. He didn’t even post a wRC+ lower than 115 vs any pitch with the exception of the splitter in a low sample size. The same pitch he had a 236 ops the season before versus.
There was an article on FG awhile ago that pointed out that most reverse platoon splits are somewhat of a mirage, even when spread over multiple seasons. So while no doubt ozuna is a fine player and I’d take him in a heartbeat, he’s not gonna make a manager pull e.g. Matt Albers or Joe Kelly in the same way a good LHB would
I mean, here is the lefty OF list from 2012-2014, min 1200 PAs, sorted by proxy OPS+:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=g4YzA
Not sure that’s all that much better.
Here’s the FG list:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=3,38,39,40&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2012-03-01&endDate=2014-11-01&filter=PA%7Cgt%7C1200&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&sort=16,1&pg=0
Players with marginal power are hitting more HR’s than ever. There isn’t much incentive to prioritize left-handed power bats.
IN addition to Bellinger, Conforto and Schwarber, the list also doesn’t include Benintendi or Mazara who both look like they could be pretty good hitters.
I pulled a few random 3 year periods going backward and it does seem like most periods have 4 to 8 LH OF with a wRC+ over 130. I suspect it’s just a random fluke and if you run the list again in a year or two there will be a few guys.
“No one is going to mistake Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Jackie Bradley Jr., Nori Aoki, Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, or Ender Inciarte for a slugger.” — The Braves mistook Markakis for a slugger when they signed him to that 4-year deal.
This reminds me of how wierd it is that the Dodgers have so many great left handed hitters and tend to have the opposite problem
What about Free Agent Carlos Gonzales??? Sign him cheaper than he has been getting the last few years from the Rockies. (such as 2/12m)
Rather than the handedness thing and the shift, the problem here may be that it’s getting hard to tell who’s a “slugger” in the new fly-ball era. Quick and dirty cutoffs like “20+ HR power” no longer seem to mean much.
Funny that the Nats have two of the top four lefty outfield sluggers. Rizzo, what’s going on here?
Shouldn’t Choo and Chisenhall be on this list?
Choo, yes. But Chisenhall has less than 1,000 PAs in the study span.
This may be cyclical, but the current cycle is longstanding. The same RH edge Dave points out was evident in the last three 3-year spans:
2012-14:
— 8 of 30 RH-only OFs reached a 130 OPS+ (all 135+), with 3 over 150.
— None of 32 LH-only OFs reached 130.
2009-11:
— 4 of 36 RH-only OFs reached 130, 3 over 140.
— 3 of 27 LH-only OFs reached 130, but the high was 135.
2006-08:
— 5 of 30 RH-only OFs reached 130, 2 over 140.
— 1 of 29 LH-only OFs reached 130, that being exactly 130.
For our current place in the cycle, I looked at 2017 only, with a 400-PA threshold:
— 10 of 41 RH-only OFs reached 130, 7 over 140, and 4 at 165+.
— 4 of 34 LH-only OFs reached 130, 3 over 140, with a high of 157.
It seems that no team should focus specifically on landing a LH OF slugger.
Two other factors in the relative shortage of big LH bats in the outfield:
1. The RHB share of all PAs last year was the highest since 2006, 59.0%.
2. As Dave alluded to, the LHB edge in OPS has been cut in half in the shifty era — an average edge of +.011 for 2010-17, vs. +.023 in the prior 20 years.
Wonder if some of that gap is due to positions.
While not all LH hitters also throw LH, some do. A RH hitter who throws LH is very rare.
So a sample of RH hitters should include proportionately more players from the high end of the defensive spectrum, specifically catchers and shortstops, who all throw RH (with the historical oddity of a very occasional LH throwing catcher).
By contrast, LH throwers regularly play 1B and OF, so LH throwers can occupy 4 positions, of which 3 are the lowest on the defensive spectrum.
I don’t know statistically if that would explain all of the OPS gap, but I think that it has to be some of it.
Matt Joyce is strictly a platoon OF, but outside of his 2015 hiccup, he’s been well above average with the bat. Considering he plays for the A’s, he’s definitely available.