All the Rule 5 Draftees by the Projections
It’s probably fair to say that, among the panoply of transactions which occurred this past week, that those produced by Thursday’s Rule 5 draft — which event marked the end of this year’s Winter Meetings — weren’t the most notable.
That said, even since 2006 (when an extra year of protection was added under the new CBA), the Rule 5 draft has produced both an MVP (Josh Hamilton) and Cy Young (R.A. Dickey). Probably flawed research by the author suggests that, on average, at least one selection within the draft will average a win or better per season following same.
Understanding the present major-league value of the Rule 5 draftee is a matter of some relevance, insofar as the selecting club is expected to retain the relevant player on its active roster for (in this case) the entirety of the 2015 season. Accordingly, it’s best for the player in question to have some kind of present value, even if he’s been drafted mostly with a view towards the future. What follows — with a view to better understanding their respective present values — are prorated 2015 Steamer projections for all the players selected during the Major League phase of this year’s Rule 5 draft.
First, for all the hitters (prorated to 550 PA, 415 PA for catchers):
| Name | Age | Pos | From | To | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odubel Herrera | 23 | 2B | Rangers | Phillies | 550 | .255 | .300 | .334 | 78 | 1.0 |
| Mark Canha | 26 | 1B | Marlins | Rockies* | 550 | .253 | .321 | .394 | 101 | 0.8 |
| Taylor Featherston | 25 | 2B/SS | Rockies | Cubs* | 550 | .259 | .303 | .394 | 78 | 0.8 |
| Delino DeShields | 22 | 2B/OF | Astros | Rangers | 550 | .224 | .295 | .317 | 75 | 0.6 |
| Oscar Hernandez | 21 | C | Rays | D-backs | 415 | .223 | .265 | .340 | 63 | 0.4 |
And, next, for the pitchers (prorated to 150 IP for starters, 50 IP for relievers):
| Name | Age | Hand | From | To | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Winkler | 25 | RHP | Rockies | Braves | 150 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 4.73 | 1.2 |
| Sean Gilmartin | 25 | LHP | Twins | Mets | 150 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 4.64 | 0.6 |
| J.R. Graham | 25 | RHP | Braves | Twins | 150 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 4.37 | 0.5 |
| Logan Verrett | 25 | RHP | Mets | Orioles | 150 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 4.44 | 0.0 |
| Andrew Mckirahan | 25 | LHP | Cubs | Marlins | 50 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4.23 | -0.2 |
| David Rollins | 25 | LHP | Astros | Mariners | 50 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 4.77 | -0.5 |
| Jason Garcia | 22 | RHP | Red Sox | Astros* | 50 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 5.02 | -0.5 |
| Andrew Oliver | 27 | LHP | Pirates | Phillies | 150 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| Jandel Gustave | 22 | RHP | Astros | Red Sox* | 50 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 5.62 | -0.9 |
And here are some notes of varying utility:
• Clubs marked by an asterisk (*) technically were responsible for drafting the relevant player, but also almost immediately traded said player, as well. For example: Mark Canha was traded to the Athletics and Jason Garcia was to the Orioles and Jandel Gustave was traded to the Royals and Taylor Featherston was traded to the Angels
• A top-five prospect in the Atlanta system as recently as last offseason, right-hander J.R. Graham is projected here as a starter largely because that’s the role he occupied throughout most of his minor-league career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twins utilize him in relief, however — in which capacity he pitched for the last month of 2014 and which might be better suited for him, given his difficulties with health in recent years.
• The most highly rated player by this methodology, right-hander Danny Winkler, underwent a Tommy John procedure in June and will likely spend much of the 2015 season rehabbing.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
What about Andrew Oliver?
I have no idea what I’m doing. Thank you.
Ha, no worries.
It’d seem Odie Herrera is much more likely to play left or center field for the Phillies. Looking at the numbers, it appears all his projected value is from defense. Does the position switch essentially zap all of his (potential) value?
You wrote that Jason Castro was traded to the Orioles. I think you meant Jason Garcia.
Jason Garcia in incorrectly called Jason Castro in the body of the post, and Logan Verrett is missing entirely.
This error has been addressed! Thank you.
Andrew Oliver (from Pirates, to Phillies, the only pick of round 2) waves hi.
…and I was too slow to reply. Curse you, rest of world, for being four minutes faster than me!
Actually, only Tim was 4 minutes faster. Most of the rest of the world has no idea who in the hell Andrew Oliver is.
Leave it to the Phillies to pay for a guy projected to walk seven per nine.
Mark Canha is gonna be the dude who tops a win this year (in Oakland).
Wouldn’t be surprising to see him take some ABs away from Ike Davis and keep Bill Butler where he should be (at DH, not 1B).
He’s definitely the best bat in the group, but his defense has to be suspect. Big bat corner OF/1B/DH types are so plentiful in the minors. Defense is what keeps these types from getting PT.
I’d put my money on Herrera or Featherston for that reason. Winkler looks pretty good too.
Thanks, Carson. On methodology, how can a pitcher with a 4.73 FIP put up 1.2 WAR, while another with a 4.44 FIP produces 0.0 WAR in the same IP? What am I missing?
The difference in park factors between Shea Stadium and Citi Field.
The difference in park factors between Coors Field and Citi Field.
Gilmartin is a lefty, and one the Mets wish to add to their competition for lefty bullpen arms.
Fixed! Thanks.
Value of a Steamer projection for a low level prospect playing at the ML level is going to be pretty low.