All the Rule 5 Draftees by the Projections

It’s probably fair to say that, among the panoply of transactions which occurred this past week, that those produced by Thursday’s Rule 5 draft — which event marked the end of this year’s Winter Meetings — weren’t the most notable.

That said, even since 2006 (when an extra year of protection was added under the new CBA), the Rule 5 draft has produced both an MVP (Josh Hamilton) and Cy Young (R.A. Dickey). Probably flawed research by the author suggests that, on average, at least one selection within the draft will average a win or better per season following same.

Understanding the present major-league value of the Rule 5 draftee is a matter of some relevance, insofar as the selecting club is expected to retain the relevant player on its active roster for (in this case) the entirety of the 2015 season. Accordingly, it’s best for the player in question to have some kind of present value, even if he’s been drafted mostly with a view towards the future. What follows — with a view to better understanding their respective present values — are prorated 2015 Steamer projections for all the players selected during the Major League phase of this year’s Rule 5 draft.

First, for all the hitters (prorated to 550 PA, 415 PA for catchers):

Name Age Pos From To PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+ WAR
Odubel Herrera 23 2B Rangers Phillies 550 .255 .300 .334 78 1.0
Mark Canha 26 1B Marlins Rockies* 550 .253 .321 .394 101 0.8
Taylor Featherston 25 2B/SS Rockies Cubs* 550 .259 .303 .394 78 0.8
Delino DeShields 22 2B/OF Astros Rangers 550 .224 .295 .317 75 0.6
Oscar Hernandez 21 C Rays D-backs 415 .223 .265 .340 63 0.4

And, next, for the pitchers (prorated to 150 IP for starters, 50 IP for relievers):

Name Age Hand From To IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP WAR
Danny Winkler 25 RHP Rockies Braves 150 6.9 3.5 1.2 4.73 1.2
Sean Gilmartin 25 LHP Twins Mets 150 5.9 3.3 1.1 4.64 0.6
J.R. Graham 25 RHP Braves Twins 150 6.7 3.3 1.0 4.37 0.5
Logan Verrett 25 RHP Mets Orioles 150 5.8 2.4 1.2 4.44 0.0
Andrew Mckirahan 25 LHP Cubs Marlins 50 6.6 3.1 1.0 4.23 -0.2
David Rollins 25 LHP Astros Mariners 50 6.3 3.6 1.2 4.77 -0.5
Jason Garcia 22 RHP Red Sox Astros* 50 6.6 4.8 1.1 5.02 -0.5
Andrew Oliver 27 LHP Pirates Phillies 150 7.7 7.1 1.0 5.40 -0.5
Jandel Gustave 22 RHP Astros Red Sox* 50 5.2 4.4 1.4 5.62 -0.9

And here are some notes of varying utility:

• Clubs marked by an asterisk (*) technically were responsible for drafting the relevant player, but also almost immediately traded said player, as well. For example: Mark Canha was traded to the Athletics and Jason Garcia was to the Orioles and Jandel Gustave was traded to the Royals and Taylor Featherston was traded to the Angels

• A top-five prospect in the Atlanta system as recently as last offseason, right-hander J.R. Graham is projected here as a starter largely because that’s the role he occupied throughout most of his minor-league career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twins utilize him in relief, however — in which capacity he pitched for the last month of 2014 and which might be better suited for him, given his difficulties with health in recent years.

• The most highly rated player by this methodology, right-hander Danny Winkler, underwent a Tommy John procedure in June and will likely spend much of the 2015 season rehabbing.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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tim
9 years ago

What about Andrew Oliver?

tim
9 years ago

Ha, no worries.

It’d seem Odie Herrera is much more likely to play left or center field for the Phillies. Looking at the numbers, it appears all his projected value is from defense. Does the position switch essentially zap all of his (potential) value?