Bad Hitting Is Beating Good Pitching
As I write this, the Indians lead the Red Sox 4-0, thanks primarily to a three-run homer from Lonnie Chisenhall. The home run from Chisenhall, off David Price, was his first home run off a left-hander this season. That would be notable, except that the first few days of this postseason have been filled with home runs from guys you don’t expect home runs from.
At this point, 15 different players have hit a home run in the postseason, Wild Card games included. Here are those 15 players, along with their regular season HR and wRC+ numbers.
| Player | Regular Season HR | Regular Season wRC+ |
| Mark Trumbo | 47 | 123 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 42 | 134 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 24 | 102 |
| Jason Kipnis | 23 | 117 |
| Jose Bautista | 22 | 122 |
| Melvin Upton Jr. | 20 | 84 |
| Francisco Lindor | 15 | 112 |
| Lonnie Chisenhall | 8 | 103 |
| Sandy Leon | 7 | 123 |
| Brock Holt | 7 | 86 |
| Kevin Pillar | 7 | 80 |
| Conor Gillaspie | 6 | 98 |
| Ezequiel Carrera | 6 | 85 |
| Roberto Perez | 3 | 58 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 2 | 120 |
Eight of the 15 players to hit one out so far this year had single-digit home run totals on the season; seven of the 15 had a wRC+ below 100. Besides Trumbo, Encarnacion, and Bautista, this is just not a group that you think of as big time sluggers. But facing some of the best pitchers in baseball, these are the guys muscling up and hitting the ball over the wall.
Of course, we’re talking about a half dozen games, so this isn’t really meaningful data. But it is a bit of a continuation of the trend we saw this year, where low-power guys started hitting for more power, and a reminder that the home run spike of 2016 has been led by the middle class of hitters.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Interesting observation. Probably only 5 of the 15 are ‘bad’ hitters though?
Has anyone written a David Price contract value/performance article recently (ie how much value the Sox should expect to get from the contract)?
How about a Price playoff performance analysis? Last year I thought his playoff performance was just random/noise, but now I’m starting to wonder if it’s more than just coincidence….
Anything can happen in a short sample size. Sure, Bumgarner looked like a genius this year and in 2014, but you should not make the mistake of assuming that pitchers become different people just because the calendar has turned to October.
I’m not assuming he’s a different person, I’m asking if anyone has written an article and/or done an analysis. He’s had 9 playoff starts in 6 different postseasons now. Close to 60 IP so yeah, small sample. Lots of mediocrity though. Looks like one of the main factors is the longball (around 1.6 HR/9).
You just have to love the new juiced ball.
I don’t know if you are being serious or not lol. I haven’t watched much ball this year. I’m leaning towards thinking you’re joking….
You hear the counter-argument of the changing launch angles. Why can’t it be both? Makes sense to adapt to a ball that’s traveling a bit further with a launch angle adjustment.
I count 9 of 15 w/100+ wRC+ and 6 of 15 below 100 wRC+.
Thru 8 PS games:
— 28 of 52 runs scored via HR, 54%. Season figure was 40%.
— Teams hitting any HRs are 8-2, those without are 0-6.
— Five of 8 winners had a single HR plating more runs than the losing total. Two more had a multi-run HR worth at least the winning margin. Other game had 3 solo HRs by each team.
And still there are folks who think HR-dependent teams are more vulnerable in postseason.
The postseason has been just like Oprah. Except with homers instead of cars.