Blue Jays Sign Kendrys Morales, Questionably
Last winter, the Blue Jays found success by avoiding paying a big commitment to re-sign David Price, instead spreading their money around to bring back Marco Estrada and add J.A. Happ to the rotation, each of whom pitched better than Price did in 2016. So perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that they may just be deciding to go that route again.
Sources: Kendrys Morales to #BlueJays, three years, $33M, pending physical. First reported: @DfineNrmLC.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 11, 2016
With Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, the Jays have two DH-type players that they could have signed to much more lucrative long-term deals, but Morales presents a much cheaper option, giving the team the flexibility to spend the extra $40 or $50 million on an outfielder, bullpen upgrades, or both. Instead of putting their money into one better player, the Jays look like they’re again going to bet on depth.
In general, I think that plan can often work out, especially if you have some serious holes on the roster that need addressing, as the Jays do. In practice, though, I’m not sure if I’m as excited about spending $33 million on Kendrys Morales as part of a spread-things-around approach.
For reference, here’s where Morales ranked in our Top 50 free agent rankings, and the write-up I noted when guessing that even at 2/$22M, I wouldn’t be a big fan of the expected price.
| Type | Years | AAV | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Cameron | 2 | $11.0 M | $22.0 M |
| Avg Crowdsource | 2 | $9.7 M | $17.3 M |
| Median Crowdsource | 2 | $10.0 M | $20.0 M |
| Age | PA | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 560 | 8.2% | 19.8% | .265 | .330 | .457 | .336 | 109 | 2.3 | -14.0 | 0.7 |
If all he really had to do was hit, Morales would still be a useful piece, but since he then has to try and run after he makes contact, Morales remains an overrated player; his lack of ability to move at human speed renders even his one-dimension of value less worthwhile than it seems. Thirty-four-year-old designated hitters who can’t run aren’t worth much, so even these modest contract forecasts are probably overpays.
I know it’s easy to say the Jays are paying for Morales’ bat and not his legs, but the fact that it’s still so difficult to knock him in once he gets on base makes his offensive production less valuable than his batting line looks like. Last year, he was worth just +2.3 runs above average as an offensive player once you include baserunning, and for a DH, being barely above average offensively means you’re barely above replacement level.
So, yeah, $33 million for the age 34-36 seasons of a decent hitter who can’t run seems like not a great use of funds to me. The team could still make this plan worthwhile if they spend the savings on a quality regular or a couple of good role players, but Morales himself just isn’t that good.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Shades of Billy Butler
#cubanbreakfast
lol Jays.
#robbers
I’m fine with this. I think he can easily hit 30 home runs again in the east, although like you said, that’s pretty much it. EE is my favorite player, but if he’s going to cost 90+ million, I’ll settle for this and see what happens. I think he’s also a lot better than butler, but I hope to god he doesn’t prove me wrong
Wow we as Jays fans are conditioned to care about what a player is making aren’t we? I say this because this was my first reaction too. We are expecting and in most cases are Ok with them signing players that are “less then” because of what a player is expected to be making. The Blue Jays have one of the richest owner if not the richest, we have one of the biggest fan bases if not the biggest and if the past 2 years does anything it should remind everyone that if the Jays put a winning product on the field the fans will spend just like they used to. The Jays should be butting up to the luxury tax limits on a yearly basis, they should be able to resign EE plus add additional significant pieces. I hope more, bigger moves are to come, otherwise this is just the Blue Jays first step back to mediocrity, we shouldn’t have to “settle”.
Well, if worse comes to worst, at least you still have the Leafs.
Oh, wait.
I’m that odd Canadian that couldn’t care less about hockey, the strike was so long that I lost interest.
They are betting on him hitting better in the AL east ballparks than in kauffman stadium.
Yeah, I think this is the biggest reason. He’s not going to be quite as productive as Edwin, but if he has any uptick because of the parks, the price difference will make it worth it. Plus I bet they like the fact he’s a switch hitter, after, apparently, feeling as though they’d become too RH heavy.
“after, apparently, feeling as though they’d become too RH heavy.”
Which is dumb as hell. The Jays were better vs RHP than LHP last yaer. Being righty-heavy is balanced because lefties (and pseudo-lefty switch-hitters) are the ones who have the biggest splits.
I never understand this reasoning. *Any* player will hit better in Rogers Centre vs a pitcher friendly park. So this isn’t really a feather in Kendrys’ cap and doesn’t help justify the signing. Any player the jays sign gets this park bump.
You are correct. A park doesn’t change a player’s value unless there is evidence that a player is particularly suited or not to one park or another or one type of park or another (it’s likely that most players adapt to their home park). And that is extremely difficult to ascertain. It is also fraught with myth and incorrect (or at least not proven) convention wisdom, for example, “fly ball pitchers do well in large parks and poorly in small parks”, “good OF defenders can be leveraged in large outfields and bad ones can ‘hide’ in small parks,” or “power hitters will particularly benefit from a hitters’ park,” etc. None of those has a shred of evidence to suggest they are true by the way.
“…Marco Estrada and add J.A. Happ to the rotation, each of whom pitched better than Price did in 2016. ”
This is a strange thing to write, given that Price had more Fangraphs WAR than both, and more RA-9 WAR than Estrada. The larger point is obviously true, that Happ and Estrada combined to be worth more than Price while combining to cost $5 million less.
The new regime got to the playoffs by the skin of their teeth with those moves. The team is getting worse (again), and the immediate competition (Ie. ALE megapayrolls) are getting better and neither BOS or NYY are old.
Get ready for another decade of third place, Jays fans. Thank your owners.
I don’t think that’ll be the case. What Shapiro and Atkins are trying to do is stay competitive until the prospects the Jays have at the lower end of the minors are ready. Instead of doing a mini rebuild like what Dave suggested a few weeks ago, they want to bridge the gap. This isn’t earth shattering by any means, but it makes the team better than it was yesterday
Why is this getting down voted? He’s right. Is WAR not a good way to evaluate who pitched better?
Probably because the smarter teams have seemed to figure out that WAR-based on FIP is outdated. The Cubs and Jays led their respective leagues in ERA, despite not having the greatest FIP numbers. While we still need a larger sample to see whether this is sustainable, it suggests that no, Fangraphs pitcher WAR is not the best way to evaluate pitchers. I would use a combination of SIERA, ERA and FIP.
Plus WAR (of any kind) is a counting stat. Who put up more value in a metric is not the same as who pitched better. Now Price had the best FIP but worst ERA and highest salary. Now of course process (FIP and SIERA) matters but if you were to say who did better you’re looking at results rather than process. So you may have to go for ERA depends on your outlook.
I don’t like the 3rd year on the deal, but assuming that EE signs elsewhere for more than we’d be comfortable in paying, I can live with this. Switch hitting middle of the lineup bat has value. But we do have to put the money savings to other players. Presumably the theory here is that Morales + Reddick > EE + Carrera, for example.
Why not just trade for melky cabrera on a 1 year deal then?
Boy I hope this isn’t all fangraphs is going to give us on this signing. Not exactly deep analysis here.
Sure, his offensive production last year was pretty pedestrian (110 wRC+), but if you squint you can see some decent potential. The average exit velocity of his batted balls (94.0 MPH) was up there with the best in the league, behind Stanton, Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera and Trumbo, but ahead of Bautista, Donaldson, Khris Davis and Cespedes. He also doesn’t strikeout much for a power hitter (19.4% K-rate, compared to a league average of 21.1%). He is basically Encarnacion-lite. Worse runner, worse defender and worse hitter, but way cheaper. Jays are going through a surreptitious rebuild.
There was a recent article suggesting he was the single biggest benefactor of a juiced ball and to expect significant regression.
Which would by definition make EE a bad investment assuming your theory is correct.
Please post a link to the recent article.
The other guy compared him to encarnacion, I certainly did not. I can’t find the article because it wasn’t about him in particular, he was just at the top of the list, sorry.
Still better than Heyward’s contract.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bargains-of-the-2016-free-agent-class/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fascinating-jason-heyward-contract/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/making-too-much-of-too-little-jason-heyward/
Or Ellsbury’s.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-premature-reports-of-jacoby-ellsburys-demise/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-sign-jacoby-ellsbury-bet-on-speed-aging-well/
Kendrys Morales fits the profile of a guy who won’t age well, doesn’t he? (Big, old player’s skills from the beginning, not a lot of peripheral skills.) I know David Ortiz defied those odds, but still–I wouldn’t be surprised if Morales isn’t in the majors for year three of this deal.