Braves Fire Fredi Gonzalez
The Atlanta Braves are 9-28, the worst record in baseball through the first quarter of the season. So, today, they did what teams with the worst record in baseball do: they scapegoated the manager.
The #Braves have fired manager Fredi Gonzalez.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienAJC) May 17, 2016
Because I don’t think we have a lot of insight into who is a good or bad manager, I don’t really think we know whether Gonzalez was part of the problem or part of the solution in Atlanta. Clearly, this team was not going to be any good this year, and Gonzalez’s job was to try and make chicken salad out of, well, you know. The team’s offense has been a complete and utter disaster, however, with imported veterans like Erick Aybar (.185 wOBA), A.J. Pierzynski (.238 wOBA), Jeff Francoeur (.250 wOBA), and Kelly Johnson (.295 wOBA) failing to provide any value in their stop-gap roles, and the kids who have been promoted haven’t shown that they’re ready for prime time. Gonzalez’s nightly line-up was Freddie Freeman and the seven dwarves, plus whatever lousy starting pitcher he had to roll out there that night.
Certainly, a lot of guys on the team are underachieving, and this is how baseball works; when the team performs poorly, the manager gets the axe. And it seems likely that the team was going to change managers at some point, as most managers don’t survive the transition from trying-to-win through rebuilding to make it back to the trying-to-win-again phase. Gonzalez knew this was the job he was being tasked with, and he had to know that it was probably going to lead to his dismissal if things got ugly. And they have.
But it’s also difficult to see that anyone else could have done significantly better with this team. The Braves assembled a collection of replacement level old guys to try and hold down the fort while their prospects developed; the old guys appear to have declined faster than they expected. This is the price the team is paying for focusing on future value. Things will get better in Atlanta when guys like Dansby Swanson start arriving, but for now, Gonzalez was tasked with trying to coax wins out of a terrible roster. He didn’t, so now someone else will try, and thanks to the power of regression to the mean, the team will look like it improved under the new guy.
Gonzalez couldn’t win with a team that isn’t good enough to win, so now the team will try someone else. It’s how baseball works, even if it isn’t really the managers fault that his team gave him a lousy roster.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Jeff Francouer? Kelly Johnson? All they need is to sign Andruw, Julio Franco, Chipper, Furcal, Johnny Estrada, and Ryan Langerhans and they have themselves a reunion of the 2005 Braves.
Let’s be real… this was a long time coming, and the 9-28 start was just a cherry on top of an already horrible pile of dog doo doo, not the primary factor.
While I don’t know what to say about his performance as a manager this year, he does have a track record of odd decisions. The one that sticks out most is him deciding to play Jose Constanza over Jason Heyward for awhile.
Maybe I was spoiled watching Bobby Cox for so long, but what rubbed me the wrong way about Gonzalez was his willingness to blame a player in public. Cox would famously deflect criticisms in the media. Even when one guy clearly made the game-changing mistake, he would just say the team needed to focus or that they battled, or something else innocuous. I wish had concrete examples to draw from but Gonzalez just seemed like less of a player’s coach.
Cantstandya! Cantstandya!
Fredi was a horrendous in-game tactician, but if there were ever a team where that was the least important part of the job…. Even as a Braves fan, I don’t know how to feel about this. I guess not too upset since it at least means he won’t be around to tard off on the next legitimate team?
As a Braves fan I’m pretty relieved. No, there wasn’t much any manager could do with the team this year, but Fredi earned this firing long before 2016. His in-game decisions are infuriating to watch, and they cost the Braves a number of games at times when they actually did matter.
As another Braves fan, I also hate to say it, but Fredi might be collecting Social Security before the Braves put together a “legitimate team.” The talent they’ve collected on the farm right now is not sufficient to propel them back into contention, so it’s likely they have yet another teardown and rebuild awaiting them in 3 or 4 years.
He was below average as a manager, I’ll never forget him losing an elimination game against the Dodgers while Kimbrel stood warm in the ‘pen, but this season is clearly not his fault.
I don’t follow the Braves much but I remember many playoff games lost late while Kimbrel sat in the bullpen as the Braves blew lead after lead. Obviously he couldn’t win with this team but there was no way he should have been managing the next quality Braves team.
Should have been fired in 2013 when Kimbrel was standing in bullpen with arms crossed watching Carpenter serve up a bomb from Uribe.
Should have been fired in 2013 when Kimbrel was standing in bullpen with arms crossed watching Carpenter serve up a bomb from Uribe.
I don’t think that it’s scapegoating when the manager of the worst team in baseball gives the FO an extension-or-fire me ultimatum and gets fired.
“plus whatever lousy starting pitcher he had to roll out there that night”
To be fair, the starting pitching has not exactly been good, but it’s also not been their primary problem. Teheran has been fine, Wisler surprisingly decent, and Mike F[mashes hands on keyboard to produce a string of 27 random letters] has been decent over his three starts.
Yes, exactly!! Wisler, Teheran, and Foltynewicz have been really, really good lately. Perez had a great start but then his game yesterday was blown up by horrible defense. Blair walks too many guys but it’s hard to call him “lousy” either. The Braves rotation is now decent with Bud Norris and Chacin gone.
It’s akin to the Phillies this year – addition by subtraction. It’s funny how things can get a little better just by going from the Bud Norrises (in the Braves’ case) and Jerome Williamses (in the Phils’ case) of the world to someone who is not a complete dumpster fire 85% of the time. Not to mention the effects on the bullpen, having to come in after your starter goes a solid 2.2 IP and you’re trailing 9-1 already.
Will people really say “see, I told you so” when the Braves play ~.400 baseball for the rest of the year instead of ~.250 baseball?
Still, if I can switch managers and elicit a .150 increase in winning percentage, I will gladly fire my own father from his managerial post.
Fun Braves fact of the day:
Half of the Braves’ top 10 in position-player WAR are pitchers, one of whom just pitched for the Angels:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=16&rost=0&age=0
The best thing Fredi Gonzalez ever did was inspire whichever tortured soul put this masterpiece together:
http://i1.wp.com/firefredi.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Usebullpengood.jpg
I have no real feeling one way or the other on Freddi Gonzalez but it seems weird to give an guy an extension in the off season (his contract was up at the end of 2015) only to fire him a month into the season. Especially when you knew the team was going to be awful before the season even started.
Thats some Steinbrenner sounding shit right there.