Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera, at 22
Bryce Harper continued terrorizing Major League pitching yesterday, coming a double short of the cycle against the Padres. For the season, he’s now hitting .338/.476/.729, good for a 215 wRC+, and it seems pretty clear that we’re seeing the breakout season of a truly elite hitter. As Jeff Sullivan noted a couple of weeks ago, Harper has made some significant changes this year, and now that he’s pulling the ball and getting it into the air with regularity, he has turned his raw power into high-level production.
He won’t keep this up all year, of course, and will eventually return to human levels of production. But it’s worth noting that even when he does, Harper will have essentially replicated the first couple of years of Miguel Cabrera’s career. Here are their career numbers through age-22.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1659 | 12% | 22% | 0.212 | 0.324 | 0.278 | 0.364 | 0.490 | 0.369 | 134 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 1716 | 9% | 21% | 0.223 | 0.343 | 0.300 | 0.366 | 0.523 | 0.377 | 131 |
Miggy’s age 20-22 seasons came from 2003 to 2005, so while his unadjusted numbers are slightly better, Harper actually has been more productive at the plate when you add in today’s pitcher-friendly run environment. And, of course, Harper’s line is still predominantly made up of his data from ages 19, 20, and 21, with only six weeks of his age-22 performance mixed in.
If we add in the Depth Charts rest-of-season forecast for Harper — which calls for him to hit .287/.382/.524 for the rest of 2015 — in order to create an expected line through his complete age-22 season, Harper’s career numbers would be .280/.368/.497, with a .373 wOBA and a 136 wRC+. The full list of hitters in baseball history that stepped to the plate 2,000 times by the end of their age-22 season and put up a 136 wRC+ or better? Mike Trout (165), Ty Cobb (159), Mickey Mantle (149), and Mel Ott (147). Ken Griffey Jr was at 134. Alex Rodriguez was at 130. As noted, Cabrera was at 131, and in fewer plate appearances, which skewed his numbers more towards his more developed years.
Bryce Harper is pretty, pretty good.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
@BryanHarperFacts coming soon….
You spelled Banknotes wrong…
So who will win next year’s “Most Overrated Player” poll?
It saddens me to say it could be Mookie if he doesn’t turn it around this year. Although he never had the prospect hype Harper did, so I’m not sure if he fits as well.
I feel like its impossible to be overrated when you’re 22 and in the big leagues
You realize that’s exactly what’s happened to Harper up until this year?
Mookie won’t be anywhere near those lists. No one cares about him other than Sox fans and stats nerds (like me).
Strasburg?
Stras has never been overrated bro
Puig
Puig.
Pu-ig?
The crazy part is that I saw that ROS projection and immediately thought it was awfully conservative. Obviously it’s not, as finishing with .280/.380/.520 in addition to his already gaudy numbers would make Harper’s age-22 season one of the greatest ever for his age, so it’s amazing that I feel like he’s capable of even MORE than that.
Every decent player gives you a bit of that feeling when they’re in the midst of a hot streak. Everything is clicking, the bat keeps connecting, the balls keep finding the seats or the gaps, how could that just… stop? Yet one day, inevitably, it does. Icarus falls back to earth, the hot streak ends. It works the other way too, of course: the guy mired in a cold streak seems hopeless, permanently broken, with no way to return to what he once was.
Humans are pattern-seekers by nature, and we often see too much in the noise.
And what should the expectation be when we’re not talking about “a decent player,” and are instead talking about a generational talent like Bryce Harper?
Actually, it’s our tendency to ignore patterns that really seems to be in play here, not out tendency to see them. What’s going on here is that we pay the most attention to the novelest stuff in our immediate environment, ignoring patterns.
People look for patterns, but we also code information in highly particular ways. For example, we miss the overwhelming evidence for regression to the mean because we don’t code and store information in a way that makes regression salient to us. It’s a pattern that is all around us, but no one knew about it until the twentieth century.
hating on generational talents who you fake suffered through losing seasons to get (or didn’t even give a shit because emotionally investing in bad baseball teams is for the subhuman) = not a shtick b/c dc sportz is supposedly real
talking like a normal fan of a truly downtrodden franchise = trolling that needs to be ignored (and the ignoring has to be announced at every opportunity to do so)
What on earth are you even talking about.
literally nothing bad ever happens to the nats. but keep the tired shtick up and smear those who have real reason to complain “too much.” it’s too bad the DC SPORTZ you all deserve isn’t what you actually get
Jay, you need to stop screamin’.
Being off your meds will do that. He’s usually relativelycalm_jay!
Did someone put a spell on you?
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/131/351/eb6.jpg?1307463786
i don’t troll, i state facts
sorry for not “trolling” other fans here, when there are dozens of posters who will troll o’s fans, or at least baltimore fans, because that’s the cool thing to do here. you know, even some of you do it rather regularly
and let’s be honest they haven’t really been more successful in most posters’ lifetimes, are a mid-market team about to destroyed by the masn ruling– and to your benefit, which your team doesn’t need — and didn’t advance automatically to dynasty status, having to wait all those years dealing with real failures from their team. it makes complete sense if you all weren’t the trolliest fan base of all
“i don’t troll, i state facts”
Fact — incomprehensible blather; Screamin_jay Dictionary, 1st ed.
Bryce Harper respects wood.
Mike Trout’s reign as the best baseball player on the planet ended after a mere three years. Bryce Harper, you are now on the clock.
Poor trolling
Heh, we’ll see.
Mantle and Mays, baby!
What he’s saying isn’t factually incorrect. Harper is currently worth 2.9 WAR and Trout is at 2.2 WAR. Harper is objectively “better” than Trout so far this season. However, passing the crown to Harper is just a tad bit preemptive…
They are no where near 2 and 3 WAR right now. I have no clue where you got that.
And of course he’s on my fantasy team
Big thing with Harper is can he stay healthy? Obviously his BB rate/BABIP/ISO numbers won’t keep up their current rates. But it will be interesting to see if he can finally put in a full season.
To be fair, we’re far past the stabilization point for BB%. This isn’t noise, anymore.
For the record, Harper’s BB% rate this year is 21.2%. I think it’s safe to say that’s unsustainable, but I also think it’s safe to say that the mean his BB% rate will come back down to is quite a bit higher than his career mark to this point.
For comparison, the highest walk rate in a qualified season in the last ten years belonged to…
wait for it…
Jack Cust, with 20.7%. That was the year he didn’t put the ball in play 53% of his at bats (and still managed 2.8 WAR).
When he was only slightly injured in 2012, he put up a 12.3% BB-rate.
This is the first time he’s been fully healthy since he put up the single best season by any teenager at the major league level. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by a true-talent 16% walk rate.
Just missing the cut at 1944 at bats: Ted Williams with a 177 wRC.