Cubs Complete Bullpen Makeover with Joe Smith

For the second time in as many years, the Chicago Cubs effectively remade half their bullpen on the fly. Last year, it was a series of former-starters-turned-reclamation projects that somehow all worked out. This year, they’ve gone the more traditional route. It started with the little pickup of left-hander Mike Montgomery, which didn’t stop them from the big-ticket acquisition of Aroldis Chapman. Young, hard-throwing Carl Edwards Jr. has been a welcome addition, and apparently Joe Nathan is a thing again.

Shortly before 4:00 p.m. EST brought the close of this year’s trade deadline, the Cubs made one more move to set up their bullpen for this year’s championship run.

The Cubs bullpen now looks something like this:

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  • Highest-leverage: Aroldis Chapman (new!)
  • Next-highest leverage: Hector Rondon
  • Next-next-highest leverage: Pedro Strop
  • Flamethrower guy: Carl Edwards Jr. (newish!)
  • ROOGY: Joe Smith (new!)
  • LOOGY: Travis Wood
  • Long man: Mike Montgomery (new!)
  • Old dude: Joe Nathan (new!)

It’s a deep pen, and it’s a versatile pen. Nathan might not last forever if the Cubs want to go back to carrying five bench players. Justin Grimm is around, too, having struggled this year after an excellent 2015.

Smith? Smith’s got about as long a track record of success as you’ll find from a submarining -OOGY. From 2011-15, he ran a 2.51 ERA over 300+ innings, going 60 or more a year. He’s been durable, effective, and he’s beloved in the clubhouse.  This year, though, he’s taken a bit of a slide. The adjusted ERA’s the highest it’s ever been. The adjusted FIP’s the highest it’s ever been. Smith is 32, and a reliever, so it’d be reasonable to assume he’s just breaking down. The Cubs barely had to give up anything at all to get him, after all.

But, digging a bit deeper, I’m not sure how different Smith really is. The velo’s the same as it’s ever been, and the velo isn’t what’s made Smith Smith. The grounders are still there, and the walk rate is up, but mostly unchanged from his career and peak figures. All that Smith’s been missing is the strikeouts — he hasn’t been finishing batters off, and so too many balls have gone into play, leaving extra room for damage.

Except, the swinging strike rate is actually up. The zone rate isn’t meaningfully changed, and neither are his first-pitch strikes. Batters are actually chasing Smith’s balls more than ever, and making the typical amount of contact. He just… hasn’t been able to finish them off, for whatever reason. It’s an issue, sure, but it’s better than a substantial drop in velocity or a sudden inability to throw strikes or get the ball on the ground.

The Cubs bought low on a reliever with a long track record of success to be the fifth or sixth option out of their bullpen. The results haven’t been great, but this Smith doesn’t look all that different from the lockdown ROOGY Smith of years past. He’s probably not as broken as he might appear.





August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.

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mtira
9 years ago

Let’s not forget that the Cubs have Trevor Cahill, too. Spencer Patton is a solid arm, too. There are options, here.