Dillon Tate’s career at UC Santa Barbara began in the bullpen and he transitioned to a starting role in 2015 as a junior. He threw 103 innings in 2015, a significant increase for a raw pitcher who’d only thrown 43 the year before. Regardless, he was holding his velocity deep into games and was among those considered by the Diamondbacks for the top-overall pick in last year’s draft. Tate’s stuff waxed and waned during his junior season but was back by draft time. He was up to 98 for me at NCAA Regionals and flashing a plus breaking ball. The Rangers drafted him fourth overall shortly thereafter.

That Tate has previously dealt with and bounced back from a downward turn in his stuff is especially significant considering he’s going to have to do it again. Reports on Tate suggest the quality of his arsenal is down across the board — and, indeed, he’s struggled to miss bats for the past two months. During spring training, Tate was 94-96 with a plus slider and flashing an above-average changeup. The fastball velo has been down in the 90-93 range lately and Tate is currently sporting a 5.12 ERA at Low-A Hickory.

It’s hard to predict whether or not Tate’s stuff will come back, but it’s an interesting buy-low opportunity for the Yankees who get an arm that, pre-draft, had #2-starter upside. The pitch grades below represent what Tate looks like when his stuff in intact, while his Future Value grade tries to balance the enigmatic and volatile nature of his future.

Other pieces headed to New York in this deal are RHPs Nick Green and Erik Swanson, both 2014 JUCO draftees from Iowa schools. Green has a slight frame but a loose, quick arm and has been 91-93 and touching 95 on occasion. His changeup sits 81-83 and is average. He throws it both to left- and right-handed hitters. Green has some feel for spinning a traditional 12-6 curveball in the 75-77 mph range. It has average depth, shape and bite but also some arm deceleration which may tip off upper-level hitters. Green is 21 years old and pitching well in short-season ball, as he should be at that age and with an advanced repertoire, but nothing here is plus or projects to it. He projects as an up-and-down arm.

Erik Swanson is a big-bodied righty who throws really hard. He won a national title with Iowa Western in 2014 and has been up to 99 this year, mostly sitting 94-97 with some movement. The slider and changeup are both below average. If one of the two secondaries comes along (I think the changeup has some potential) then he could be a nice relief piece.