Draft Results: The 2017 Over/Under Prospect Game
This very minute, the author has published an episode of FanGraphs Audio in which lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and that same dumb author play the first inaugural edition of the Over/Under Prospect Game. The rules of the game are discussed in greater detail within the pod episode. In short, though, this is how it’s played:
- Contestant A nominates a rookie-eligible player.
- Contestant A also sets an over/under figure for that player’s WAR in 2017.
- Contestant B chooses the over or under.
For sake of simplicity, we limited the game to 10 nominations total, five by Longenhagen and five by me. The only criterion for a nominee was that he retained his rookie eligibility entering the 2017 campaign.
Here’s the outcome of our draft in the order in which it happened:
| Round | Contestant A | Player | Team | WAR | Contestant B | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Longenhagen | Manuel Margot | Padres | 1.5 | Cistulli | Over |
| 2 | Cistulli | Jose De Leon | Rays | 2.0 | Longenhagen | Under |
| 3 | Longenhagen | Senzel + Burdi | CIN + CWS | 0.7 | Cistulli | Under |
| 4 | Cistulli | Charlie Tilson | White Sox | 0.9 | Longenhagen | Over |
| 5 | Longenhagen | Mitch Haniger | Mariners | 1.7 | Cistulli | Under |
| 6 | Cistulli | Jharel Cotton | Athletics | 2.2 | Longenhagen | Over |
| 7 | Longenhagen | Albert Almora | Cubs | 2.4 | Cistulli | Under |
| 8 | Cistulli | Gavin Cecchini | Mets | 0.4 | Longenhagen | Under |
| 9 | Longenhagen | Stephen Gonsalves | Twins | 1.0 | Cistulli | Under |
| 10 | Cistulli | German Marquez | Rockies | 0.7 | Longenhagen | Over |
Contestant B chooses over or under for that player.
With his third selection, Longnehagen annoyingly submitted the combined WAR of Nick Senzel and Zack Burdi — which is why those two players are listed together in the third row. Otherwise, the results should be pretty self-explanatory.
Over the course of the season, I’ll revisit the selections here and maybe annotate it with some light commentary. Unless it’s clear I’m losing badly, I mean, in which case I’ll ignore this post and forget it ever happened.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Why don’t you set up a poll so the listeners at home can play too?
If Almora produces >2.4 fWAR in 2017 I’d consider that a pretty darn successful campaign for a guy who is only 22.
The author has created an impossible to comprehend game. The last column of the table seems to be a smattering of the names of the two contestants, when the rules lead one to believe that it should be whether Contestant B chose the “over” or the “under.” Why is Cistulli for instance taking the “over” on his own rookie?
Presumably because Longenhagen took the under. If you’re betting, then one player taking the over automatically means the other takes the under. SO Cistulli names a prospect and a WAR, Longenhagen takes the under, that makes Cistulli the over.
Doug Lampert’s right, but I think I wasn’t entirely clear. I’ve rearranged the table a bit. Let me know if it helps or doesn’t.
This is truly excellent! Second the crowdsourcing idea. Would be fun to compare your own results to projections (Steamer, ZiPS, depth charts, KATOH/+) and the crowd at the end of the season.
I’ve actually just spoken to David Appelman, dark overlord of FanGraphs. There’s a possibility we might be able to turn this into a contest. I can’t confirm that, however, because I possess neither the requisite authority nor competence to do so.
The Jharel Cotton projection seems more unlikely than likely. Only 9 rookie pitchers had 2.2+ WAR last year, which is actually up, as only 10 rookies did that in 2014-15 combined.
And while the A’s defense won’t hurt him directly since they are using FIP-WAR, it could further limit his innings, which will indirectly hurt his chances.