Eric Thames Without The Reds
Yes, ThamesGraphs is still in full force. I’ll write about someone else eventually.
You know the Thames story by now. You probably also know that a lot of it has been written against the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers have played seven games against the Reds already, and in those seven games, Thames has launched 8 of his 11 home runs. He’s slugging 1.400 against them, and it’s easy to dismiss his early success as just mashing bad pitching. After all, the Reds just set the all-time record for home runs allowed last year, and their current staff is missing Anthony Desclafani, their best starting pitcher. We have the Reds projected as the worst rotation in baseball.
So since this comes up so often, I figure we might as well show what he’s doing against everyone else. Here’s Eric Thames‘ 2017 batting line if you eliminate the seven games against Cincinnati.
| PA | HR | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 0.333 | 0.438 | 0.650 | 0.457 | 184 |
If Thames had been benched for all of the games against the Reds, he’d still rank 9th in MLB in wRC+. And, of course, that’s without taking away any results from anyone else because we deemed part of their competition too weak to include in the calculations.
Yes, Thames destroyed the Reds. He also destroyed the Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, and Blue Jays. The 8 of 11 home runs is a nice headline stat, but the reality is that Thames has hit against good and bad pitching this year, and his numbers haven’t been that heavily inflated by facing weak pitching early. Facing the Reds a bunch has helped, but he’s doing work against everyone.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
oppTAv .253 – oppRPA+ 94. Thames has faced above average pitching. (I’ve tried as hard as anyone to debunk “God”, and I failed. I’ve conceded that my attempts were blasphemous, please have mercy on my soul).
Too week? ” because we deemed part of their competition too week to include in the calculations.”
So in other words, he’s Mike Trout when he’s not hitting against the Reds.
*reads comment, stares absent-mindedly into the abyss threatening to swallow him whole*
Most HR hit in Reds games so far this season:
Eric Thames – 8
Joey Votto – 7
Adam Duvall – 7
Scott Schebler – 7
After this weeks Nats vs. Rockies series I need some relief so… this quote – “He also destroyed the Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, and Blue Jays” isn’t quite accurate. Vs the Rockies he was 4 for 14 with 1 HR and 1 double.
You’re being cute with language. You know what was meant. He still crushed non Red teams collectively.
…so he hit .286 with a .571 slugging percentage against them? Ha, you really showed Dave!
Is there somewhere in the leaderboards or player pages where I can see splits against a particular team or at a particular park?
I know I’ve seen such on espn years ago, but I can’t seem to find them here.
Same analysis could be done of Heyward, whose power outbreak conveniently coincided with a series with the Reds
Now all he has to do is hit 6HR in his next 19PA against the Reds to keep pace with Thames. Hitting HR’s is hard. Reds or not, he is doing this in the MLB. At the end of the year, let’s see who has the most HR’s against the Reds. There are some quality hitters in that division. Does Bryant hit more than 8 HR off the Reds, in a whole season; let alone 33 PA’s? Rizzo? Schwarber? Braun? McCutchen? All of his peripherals line up. When Reds pitchers hit the pillow, I guarantee you Heyward does not cross their mind. They are having nightmares about Thames. Betts had what,~ 7 HR’s against the O’s last season? Do we discount that? Do we question his talent and quality of the pitchers he faced? See my post above; I was skeptical. Then I opened my eyes to see the truth shines brightest.
One thing I’ve noticed in checking out Thames’ page daily: His walk percentage is going up pretty much every day. I wouldn’t be surprised if teams are doing their best to avoid giving him anything good to work with, his home run rate goes way down (even more than you’d expect with regression), but he maintains a truly monstrous OBP.
Try looking at his game log, he lit up the Cubs the first series, didn’t do much in the second, and hasn’t “destroyed” anybody else. Love the hyperbole. Bring the down votes sycophants.
BTW, remember when Puig “destroyed” everybody?
Don’t make “God” angry, or he will “destroy” you. 🙂
Isn’t denigrating people for not agreeing with you before they’ve said anything at all the kind of thing a sycophant might well do?