FAN Projection Targets: The Top Five Rookie Batters of 2015

Earlier this afternoon, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2016 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — the five, in fact, who produced the top WAR figures in 2015 among rookie-eligible position players. Note: listed age is for 2016.

Player: Kris Bryant, 24, 3B (Profile)
2015 Line: 650 PA, .275/.369/.488, 11.8% BB, 30.6% K, 136 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Recorded top WAR mark among all 2015 rookies after consecutive seasons of unambiguously strong performances in minor leagues. Compensated for high strikeout rate with above-average walk rate and power on contact. Produced over 14 runs by means of baserunning and defense, according to FanGraphs’ methodology for measuring both.

¡Submit Projection for Kris Bryant!

Player: Matt Duffy, 25, 3B (Profile)
2015 Line: 612 PA, .295/.334/.428, 4.9% BB, 15.7% K, 116 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Emerged as San Francisco’s starting third baseman after combination of injury and ineffectiveness led to release of Casey McGehee in July. Nearly matched career minor-league home-run total (13 in 1087 PA) in first full season with Giants (with whom he hit 12 HR in 676 PA). Produced roughly 16 runs by means of baserunning and defense, according to metrics used at this site.

¡Submit Projection for Matt Duffy!

Player: Odubel Herrera, OF, 24 (Profile)
2015 Line: 537 PA, .297/.344/.418, 5.2% BB, 24.0% K, 110 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Assumed center-field role almost immediately after having been selected by Philadelphia from Texas in 2014 rule 5 draft. Opening Day start in center represented just the third occasion playing that position in entire career in affiliated baseball. Produced highest batting average on balls in play (.387 BABIP) among all qualified batters.

¡Submit Projection for Odubel Herrera!

Player: Jung-ho Kang, 29, 3B/SS (Profile)
2015 Line: 467 PA, .287/.355/.461, 6.0% BB, 21.2% K, 130 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Followed merely average first half (.268/.348/.384, 109 wRC+) with decidedly above-average second half (.310/.364/.548, 154 wRC+) in first season of stateside baseball. More or less split starts for Pirates between third base and shortstop. Is expected to return in April from knee injurt that ended 2015 season.

¡Submit Projection for Jung-ho Kang!

Player: Francisco Lindor, 22, SS (Profile)
2015 Line: 438 PA, .313/.353/.482, 6.2% BB, 15.8% K, 128 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Produced highest WAR figure among American League rookies despite only arriving in majors on June 14th and compiling just 438 plate appearances. Derived nearly 1.5 wins from defense (fielding plus positional adjustment) alone. Produced highest isolated-power figure (.169) of career at any level for any period of time.

¡Submit Projection for Francisco Lindor!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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'Tungsten Arm" O'Doyle
9 years ago

¡Love the spirited ejaculations!