FAN Projection Targets: Five Tommy John Pitchers

Yesterday afternoon, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2016 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — all of whom missed all or part of 2015 due to a Tommy John procedure. Note: listed age is for 2016.

Player: Homer Bailey, 30, RHP (Profile)
2015 Line: 11.1 IP, 2.38 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 2.38 HR/9, 7.10 FIP at MLB
Notes: After producing eight-plus wins in previous three seasons, began 2015 campaign on disabled list. Proceeded to record two April starts in which fastball measured roughly 3 mph lower than 2013-14 average. Underwent Tommy John procedure in early May. Expected to return in May of 2016.

¡Submit Projection for Homer Bailey!

Player: Alex Cobb, 28, RHP (Profile)
2015 Line: Missed whole season.
Notes: Following career-high 27 starts and 166.1 innings in 2014, left spring-training game against Phillies with forearm tightness in March of 2015. Following approximately two months of rest and rehab, underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-May. Is expected to return at midseason.

¡Submit Projection for Alex Cobb!

Player: Yu Darvish, 29, RHP (Profile)
2015 Line: Missed whole season.
Notes: After missing last two months of 2014 season due to elbow inflammation, was pulled from March spring-training start because of right triceps tightness. After diagnosis of sprained UCL days later, proceeded to undergo Tommy John surgery in mid-March. Given current timetable, is expected to return in May of 2016.

¡Submit Projection for Yu Darvish!

Player: Brandon McCarthy, 32, RHP (Profile)
2015 Line: 23.0 IP, 11.35 K/9, 1.57 BB/9, 3.52 HR/9, 6.22 FIP at MLB
Notes: Following successful 2014 campaign with D-backs and Yankees during which he posted career-high 200 innings, began 2015 season with Dodgers by recording highest average fastball velocity, swinging-strike rate, and strikeout rate of career. Left fourth start with arm injury diagnosed days later as torn UCL. Had undergone TJ procedure by end of April. Is expected to return at midseason.

¡Submit Projection for Brandon McCarthy!

Player: Zack Wheeler, 26, RHP (Profile)
2015 Line: Missed whole season.
Notes: Following successful sophomore campaign during which he made full complement of appearances, was scratched from Grapefruit League start with a tender right elbow diagnosed soon after as torn elbow ligament. Underwent Tommy John towards end of March. Is targeting a June or July return

¡Submit Projection for Zack Wheeler!

We hoped you liked reading FAN Projection Targets: Five Tommy John Pitchers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Oh. I thought this was where we’d be projecting the five pitchers most likely to need Tommy John surgery.